Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 1/11/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The last hurrah for Tina Fey and Amy Poehler as hosts of the Golden Globe Awards averaged a preliminary 16.1 million viewers and 5.0 adults 18-49 rating. These numbers tend to adjust up significantly in finals, but they should be at least a bit below the 6.4 and 6.5 posted in the duo's first two stints.
    • UPDATE: Time-zone numbers for the Globes were 19.3 million viewers and a 5.8 A18-49. In 18-49, that's about 10% behind the first two Fey/Poehler shows, but still ahead of the three Ricky Gervais years (5.5 -> 5.2 -> 5.0).
  • On ABC, week two of Galavant (1.3) was down a hefty 35 percent vs. last week's premiere, while the dramas Resurrection (0.8) and Revenge (0.8) also hit new lows. A 35 percent drop can hardly be called a positive, even against this big increase in competition, but it's still stacking up quite favorably compared to those other ABC dramas...
  • CBS had the playoff NFL overrun, significantly boosting 60 Minutes (3.6), somewhat boosting Madam Secretary (1.7) and not boosting The Good Wife (1.3). And Fox's The Simpsons (2.0), Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5), Family Guy (2.0) and Bob's Burgers (1.6) were at relatively normal non-overrun levels.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.1 23% -15%-0.2n/a 9/10 +10% -12% +5% 1.5
Galavant 1.3 40% -35%-0.7-0.2 2/2 n/a -35% +37% 1.5
Resurrection 0.8 33% -20%-0.2-0.7 11/11 n/a -20% -50% 1.0
Revenge 0.8 28% -11%-0.1-0.2 12/12 -50% -11% +7% 1.3
ABC:-22%-8%
NFL Overrun 9.0 40% +58%+3.3n/a 6/20 -32% +959% -39% 8.4
60 Minutes 3.9 28% +388%+3.1n/a 1/17 -3% +169% -7% 1.5
Madam Secretary 1.7 18% +13%+0.2+3.1 4/13 n/a +26% -6% 1.6
The Good Wife 1.4 19% +8%+0.1+0.2 3/12 -22% +8% -20% 1.6
CBS:+223%-29%
Golden Globe Arrivals 1.3 26% n/a +73% -19% 1.6
Golden Globe Awards 5.8 38% -11% +160% -11% 5.0
NBC:+151%-22%
Mulaney 0.5 48% +25%+0.1n/a 8/9 n/a -96% -38% 1.0
The Simpsons (R) 0.8 53% -93% -27% 1.1
The Simpsons 2.0 59% -57%-2.7-11.1 8/11 -9% -57% -9% 2.2
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 1.5 58% -50%-1.5-2.7 10/13 +0% -50% -25% 1.4
Family Guy 2.0 62% -29%-0.8-1.5 6/8 -26% -29% -26% 2.0
Bob's Burgers 1.6 61% -20%-0.4-0.8 3/9 -20% -20% -30% 1.5
Fox:-77%-24%
Big4:+6%-24%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

81 comments:

Spot said...

And Galavant's chances have crashed and burned. As well as Resurrection and Revenge, but they were dead ages ago.

And that 3.6 from 60 Minutes. I wonder what would happen if the schedule was originally as planned...

Spot said...

I don't get it, CBS. If you decided to trumpet at TCA that Madam Secretary was renewed for a second season, why rob it of a PR-friendly chance to get near/hit a series high with the direct NFL overrun lead in? You'd really have fun with it, too, since it would be done against the Golden Globes.

At least Galavant kept a 1 in front of the decimal. I do think, though, that ABC should have just done 2-hour AFV's into Resurrection/Revenge and put Galavant on Wednesdays at 10:00/10:30 while Nashville was on ice as their January plan. The network wants to try on some level, needs to burn though Resurrection's 13 episodes, and clearly thought Revenge would hold up as well as it did last season during the January run. But...no. Keep it low-cost in January/February with AFV, repeats, clip show-esque specials, and movies.


(And if this comment is duplicated, my bad. Disqus had a mini-meltdown while I was writing.)

Spot said...

I've wondered about a lot of things schedule-wise at CBS this year...

Spot said...

I think that it would have done a tad worse than 60 Minutes, but it would have easily been a series high, probably push The Good Wife to a seasom high, and CSI would have done basically equal or a bit better than The Good Wife at 10.

Spot said...

Spot, or anyone, BCS game from 2011 is still all-time cable A18-49 record at 10.1 ratings?

Spot said...

It seems they're airing episode 16 of CSI on Tuesday 27th. With doubling up on 25th, that will be 3 episodes in 48 hours. That way season (series ?) finale would be 2 hours at Feb 15, week before Oscars, and as originally planned. But...
Seriously, CBS?

Spot said...

I think that big scripted winner is the Simpsons. I think it is legitimately stronger than Family Guy. It matched it on a non NFL overrun night when there was no big Walking Dead or Game of Thrones competition against Family Guy. I think Brooklyn Nine-Nine and Bob's Burgers are basically interchangeable at this point. Same lead in, with Bob's Burgers doing a tad better. Of course Bob's Burgers had less competition

Spot said...

If they announced it as a series finale and aired it post NCIS, they could get some really nice ratings from it and probably great ad rates

Spot said...

That Tuesday episode is 16th of 18, not 18th of 18.

And, for what it's worth, NCIS should be repeat that day. With so many audibles by CBS lately, nothing is sure anymore.

Spot said...

I'm aware it isn't the finale, I'm just saying they should have used it as the finale

Spot said...

There's 2 more weeks for both Galavant and Resurrection to burn off, Galavant was already a schedule fodder either way and it's the other mid season shows (S&L and AC) that they're more concerned about, however they perform. As for Revenge, it would be better to end it before it drops any further, it's already declining badly on a seasonal basis.

Spot said...

I don't necessarily disagree with any of this. But because Sunday is just a different beast in the beginning part of the calendar year, ABC in particular needs to be mindful of that. If Resurrection and Revenge are dead shows walking, why throw a newbie into that morass? Galavant would have stood a better chance on Wednesdays with no downside: if it hit ABC gets to steamroll over Stalker and ChiPD, if it didn't it would still do better than Nashville or Forever reruns while not wasting the post-ModFam slot with a Mixology-like albatross.

Spot said...

I never said anything about throwing a new show in there (they should know better by now), it would be better to plug in Castle or Nashville for a final season. Galavant always seemed like schedule fodder, it was being burned off in between OuaT's hiatus. That's just the way ABC played it off.

Spot said...

Ohio St. vs. Oregon overnight HH rating is 18.5.
http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-releases/2015/01/college-football-playoff-national-championship/
That's highest ever overnight for ESPN, and my estimates for final ratings are:

It depends on skew, but I think this should be near 11.0 A18-49 ratings, beating previous cable record 10.1 rating for Auburn vs. Oregon on ESPN in 2011.

It should be highest ever HH ratings for ESPN, but not best ever for CFB (Texas - USC on ABC 2006 scored 21.7 HH, and Nebraska vs Miami on NBC in 1995 got 18.9).

This is surely most watched cable telecasts of any kind ever, this should translate into way over 30 million viewers. Though, probably bellow 35.63 million that game on ABC in 2006 had. I'd say last night around 34 million people watched on average, and 2nd most watched CFB game ever.

Spot said...

Galavant did feel like schedule fodder until ABC gave it way more of a full-throated promo push than I expected. If the network wanted a better ROI, Sunday was not the place for it.


I agree about plugging Nashville on Sundays if it's getting a fourth season. Much like Elementary, put it on a lower-priority night/hour where it will do the last damage and free up space for something higher-profile. Castle...well, I do think ABC will end up moving the show for the first time since DWTS has stabilized while the procedural has fallen back into a more bubbly territory. But I'd rather have it on Tuesdays at 10:00 if ABC doesn't have an obvious SHIELD companion or Wednesdays at 10:00 if ABC decides to focus on just Sundays and Tuesdays for 2015-2016.

Spot said...

Damn, looks like another record for The Walking Dead to beat for its spring premiere

Spot said...

They tried to do that for the premiere when it got a 2.0, but it was pretty obvious it would fall, especially with the GGs next week.

Castle and Nashville makes the most sense to move, especially for a possible final season, then those slots can be used for the new shows instead of continually putting them into weak slots to try and give them a chance.

Sundays and Tuesdays definitely need a major overhaul.

Spot said...

Mike & Molly is MVP of the night! CBS really should have it on the fall schedule, especially since they aren't dragging the Millers to syndication and Two and a Half Men is ending

Spot said...

The Celebrity Apprentice still continues to impress. No one thought it would be doing this well a fee months ago.

Spot said...

Tying the Bachelor is just crazy!

Spot said...

2 months ago I would have pegged CA at about a 1.3 season average and The Bachelor at about a 2.3 season average. It looks like both might end up being tied by the end of the season.

Spot said...

I guess The Bachelor has more audience overlap with The Celebrity Apprentice than a casual glance would suggest. And a premiere has more hype built into it than a second episode, so some kind of drop isn't unexpected. I think the size of the game's rating has to matter here, too, as a big-tent type of sports event.


Meanwhile, Mike & Molly is as resilient as ever. It's making an argument that it's a stronger utility sitcom player than Rules of Engagement was. I still don't think it'll get on CBS' fall schedule next season, but unless Melissa McCarthy wants out I don't see how CBS can let this show go.

Spot said...

State of Affairs already lost 64% of it's premiere episode A18-49 viewers. Eat that, The Biggest Loser contestants.
The biggest NBC hope this season is now effectively being burn off. Advertisers were delusional too - at upfronts they were paying around $220,000 for 30 seconds spot in SofA. To put things in perspective, that's same as spot in Scandal had cost back then. And while 30 secs in Scandal cost same today (if not more), one nowadays can buy maybe even 4 spots in SofA for that amount of money.

Spot said...

I see it this way:
If CBS will have 2 new comedies in fall, then Mike & Molly is on the bench again.
But if they would premiere only 1 new comedy, then it airs already in September (or Novmeber if TBBT is jerked around again).

I would like them to premiere new comedies, because they need some fresh blood in that department. On the other hand, their comedy development looks traditionally awful, so I'm skeptical about them being able to squeeze two out of that bunch. I like only the one about firefighter whom suddenly becomes city mayor, the one that is a vehicle for Geoff Stults (Enlisted, The Finder).

As for Melissa McCarthy, If she wants to do more movies, I think they would find the middle ground: 13 episodes season(s).

Spot said...

Should Celebrity Apprentice really be hurting the Bachelor more than The Voice/Olympics? I think there is genuine rejection or it this season by fans. No problem there. Their representation of my native state of Iowa is awful to the extreme

Spot said...

NBC started Dateline in progress after the game. It's the perfect show to start in progress too as they are constantly recapping during the show itself. I think that they should try this for 60 Minutes. Start in progress after the football game and then repeat the show in its entirity Saturdays at 8. It would be a perfect lead in for 48 Hours.
.
Oh by the way Spot, I'm pretty sure Dateline: Saturday Night Mysteries are new material. I don't watch Dateline regularly enough to say for sure, but I know NBC has dozens of Datelines ready at any given time and the cutting down of the Friday edition to a single hour (normally) gave them more to air on Saturday. By all means, keeping designating it as a repeat, but I think they are original

Spot said...

Agent Carter did bad, that 1.5 is no better than Galavant's 1.3 two days ago, as Carter had better lead-in, and no Golden Globes against it. I think SHIELD will have shorter hiatus next winter.
In fact, I already consider both Carter and Galavant dead. Because this is different kind of bridge programming, it's not some cheap stuff, like, for example, The Sing-Off or The Taste. With mid 1s ratings, expensive scripted stuff is on the bubble even for shows near/in syndication. Shows that will have only 8 spisodes after this season? I really don't see how ABC would recoup costs.

Besides State of the Union preemption next week, more bad news for Carter is week after it Shark Tank lead-in is not original episode. Source:
http://www.abcmedianet.com/assets/pr/html/pr72136.html
Episode 606 (Rebroadcast. OAD: 10/10/14).

Spot said...

This week has not been all that kind to shows so far. Most seem to be at or near lows. Also NBC, please get rid of the comedies. They seem to be hurting Chicago Fire, a show that actually works.

Spot said...

Parks & Recreation had a lot of things working in its favor: Amy Poehler's stint hosting the Globes on Sunday, moving to a more-viewed night, and being the only comedy in the 8:00 hour.

Meanwhile, three headscratch-y events happened: Shark Tank and MasterChef Junior coming out essentially unscathed (though the former typically hangs a Friday-esque number in these one-offs), NCIS: NoLa and Agent Carter dropped a surprising amount, and while Marry Me sunk, About a Boy grew. Not that it helps AaB's chances any.

Spot said...

Marry Me down again, despite (relatively) strong Parks & Recreation lead-in. Such an extreme incompatibility shows Greenblatt / Salke succeeded to rebrand NBC comedies, to "broaden" it. Who cares all those recent NBC comedy are miserable failing to gain audience, branding is what's important. Plus, you know what they say: 20th time's the charm.

Spot said...

Well, my fan-driven bold prediction of Parks and Rec being NBC's #1 comedy is one massive rejection from The Voice viewers towards Undateable away to happpen.


NBC should just pull Marry Me and About a Boy now, put Blacklist/SVU repeats that will do the same and attract a similar demo to Chicago Fire's. Fire comes back in three weeks but still has to endure two more episodes airing after comedies.

Spot said...

CBS is the only one rolling.


It'll be a long waiting for ABC/NBC until TGIT and The Voice come back every night except wednesdays and thursdays pre-Backstrom (which is just a week before TGIT) is theirs (sundays doesn't count, whoever has the big event wins).

Spot said...

I don't consider Carter completely dead. Probably dead because it should not be able to hold at 1.5, but if it did manage it, I say it would come back. They need something better than The Taste (down to a .7 this season) and apparantly Carter might tie directly into Ant Man

Spot said...

Screw you Marry Me! If I were NBC, I would plug in Hollywood Game Night next week for the sake Chicago Fire. Seriously, Marry Me, squandering over half of your most combatible lead in is just awful!

Spot said...

Parks' young skew means its A18-34 ratings are actually pretty good. It managed 1.5 in A18-34 to tie for #1 in the timeslot.

Spot said...

Don't get me started on the NBC comedy disaster.



All I'll say is that NBC really should have just given Parks and Community farewell seasons rather than trying to launch 3 new comedies developed by the comedy head they rightly fired.

Spot said...

Why do you always ignore the fact not all shows are costing the same?
0.7 for cheap unscripted The Taste is bad, but is no doubt better than 1.5 for scripted show costing some 4x more.
Some scripted shows with 1.5 A18-49 average will be renewed, sure. But those are the shows where studio is recouping losses through syndication and/or streaming deal. Carter is 80 episodes from syndication = deader than disco.

Spot said...

ABC will be using the NBA to launch The Whispers.

Spot said...

And the Oscars to launch American Crime (no love for S&L, apparently.)

Spot said...

If American Crime returns, it might do so in a True Detective way: new crime, new everything.


DWTS returns on March, 16th.

Spot said...

Paul Lee doesn't announce this season as the final season for Revenge; he says that there are ways to reinvent it.

Spot said...

They can sell Carter's episodes with SHIELD's seasons.

Spot said...

When has that ever happened? And why would a network buy the less-successful cousin to the parent show. I don't see Joanie Loves Chahi paired with Happy Days in syndication.

Spot said...

I still don't count it out competely. ABC needs a lot of filler so its dramas can take their hiatuses. The Taste is clearly not working. As you said, Galavant beat relative expectations for the premiere, but has dropped from viable territory. The Great Christmas Light Fight and Bachelor have the Dancing hiatus locked down, but that's about it. I think at this level it is still viable as a bridge. Especially with the Marvel name attatched. ABC loves corporate synergy.
Why else did solid performer, great repeater, America's Funniest Home Videos get preempted twice for weak specials Star Wars Rebels (.6) and Disney on Broadway (.5) that both help derail the whole night? Because they were basically having hourlong commericals for Disney's other assets. The Marvel Cinematic Universe is poised to pass Harry Potter as the top film franchise of all time and ABC loves its synergy.
Off course now it'll return in 2 weeks with a 1.2 and drop some more after making this whole post pointless.
Anyways, main idea: at this level, I still think Carter has a chance as a bridge next year

Spot said...

I think it would work only if it was spinoff, or if storylines were somehow interconnected.
But maybe you're right, maybe it's possible.

Spot said...

Paul Lee's executive session has ended. No renewals.

Spot said...

So it seems they think its ratings would be even bellow awful Forever ratings.
Well, then I'm not gonna check not even pilot. I don't want to invest into pre-cancelled show.

Spot said...

Lee said he wanted to give the show the biggest sample possible.

Spot said...

Thanks for the updates! Super informative

Spot said...

Glad someone doesn't find this as 'spam'. :P
Thank you!

Spot said...

other less interesting points:


- Lee credits binge watching for allowing them to turn Scandal into a powerhouse;
- TGIT has had a billion impressions on FB;
- Nashville will have some really good guest stars coming;
- The reality head at ABC has been fired and Lee already has a replacement;
- ABC is giving up on singing competitions.

Spot said...

He may say whatever he wants, and premiere might be well sampled. But the fact remains The Whispers is a show shot with "normal" budget, while it will air during low PUT summer. In my book, burn off.

Spot said...

Obviously. And the Revenge revamp was also PR talk.

Spot said...

Also from ABC, Fresh Off The Boat will be paired with "Repeat After Me" some reality show inspired by a segment on the Ellen show. In short, filler.

Spot said...

Patchwork show, patchwork scheduling.
Cancelled after 3 weeks. Confident.
Then they're gonna say it was limited/event/mini/whatever series, so it couldn't be renewed anyway. More than confident.

Spot said...

Meh. Paul Lee does love his PR talk.
Yet, no real information.

Spot said...

Maybe next season he is giving it Scandal's lead-in.

Right, Bob?

Spot said...

Secrets and Lies is an anthology too, I'm surpised.


Great updates.

Spot said...

Yes, but the lead actor might stay for the following seasons.
Also, the show will have differences from the Australian version as it progresses.

Spot said...

I wouldn't consider Marry Me to be a broader comedy. It's crap - just like the rest of the single camera offerings from NBC over the years (excluding Office, Parks, 30 Rock, and maybe even Community).

Spot said...

Can't wait for NBC's TCA.


Greenblatt will treat Aquarius (considering there will be news about it) as a high-profile show that's getting a summer burn-off.


FOX's TCA is about to be all Empire.

Spot said...

Thanks for updates. One more info is: Given Rising Star‘s poor performance last summer (as well as Duets’ similar non-success), Lee said, “I don’t think were going to be trying [another singing show] for a little bit.” However, he hinted at “some really cool new reality shows for the summer.

Their long game is clear - they want to move DWTS to summer, but they certainly won't do that until they find its replacement for regular season. That's why they're trying new reality show its summer, that's why they engaged into bidding war to get Rising Star (and consequently suffered big financial loss when it flopped). And they'll try to find reality hit this summer again, only now ABC gave up on singing competitions.

Spot said...

Probably, the firing of reality head has something to do with that, indeed.

Spot said...

I know. That is reference to nonsenses about broadening the audience of NBC comedies that Greenblatt / Salke were blabbering at summer TCA 2 1/2 years ago. As "broad comedies" NBC is picking are more and more failing in ratings, more people are mocking them about planned "broadening".

For example, see here:
http://deadline.com/2012/07/nbc-brass-on-broadening-comedies-future-of-community-smash-howard-stern-306269/
“I think we’re in a transition with our comedy programming trying to broaden the audience,” Greenblatt said. “NBC’s Thursday comedies is what we love and what critics love but they tend to be a bit more narrow than we’d like.” Salke said that several showrunners of returning NBC comedies have came up to the network’s executives with ideas how to broaden the appeal of their shows next season. “It’s kind of an evolving comedy brand,” she said.

Spot said...

State of Affairs adjusted down to 0.7 in finals.

They can't even move it to Saturday - it would hurt night's average as it surely would do worse than repeats of Dateline or SNL.
Ditto for Constantine, and those 4 ill-advised fall comedies.

Spot said...

State of Affairs might just be the worst new show on the fall schedule, as to its ratings.

Spot said...

@Spot, what happened to the Monday's ratings thread?

Spot said...

Community looked renewal-worthy (accounting for the lack of comedy alternatives and the skew) when they cancelled it.

Brewing broadness is fine, even a sensible use of the post-Voice Tuesday 9/8c hour. But they've ended up with small and advertiser-unfriendly audiences, which is a whole lot worse than small and advertiser-friendly ones like Parks/Community managed.

Spot said...

That makes a lot of sense. Of course, they could have done that by moving The Batchelor to fall, Batchelorette to spring, and DWTS in winter and summer. Such scheduling (assuming a January start for the DWTS winter run) would also have allowed the shows to move to Sunday if ABC wanted to get dramas out of that night, something currently made impossible because of the DWTS mothership's Saturday night slot.

Spot said...

"Lee credits binge watching for allowing them to turn Scandal into a powerhouse"

Exception that proves the rule on how only cable dramas can grow; Scandal had a syndie deal with BET pretty much right out of the gate IIRC. That provided the binge-watching opportunity that other broadcast shows can't get; expect someone to copy that in the next year or so.

Spot said...

I think that syndie deal was only for season 3.

Spot said...

Community hit 2 sucessive .9's when it was cancelled. The only real reasons to renew it were PR or syndication reasons. Raw numbers were awful. And it was skewing in the 40% range. It's not like the FOXcoms that had 60% ulta young skews. I don't see any benefit from them having the final season on NBC

Spot said...

So ABC no likey the show like I predicted? Okay then.

Spot said...

Yes, from season 3 onward BET airs new episodes of Scandal next week after original airs on ABC.
But during the summer between seasons 2 and 3 BET 2x aired all episodes from first two seasons 1 or 2 (only around 30 episodes, first season was short). And since then, each week they air 2 or 3 episodes. Two old episodes from previous seasons, plus one new (in weeks when there was original on ABC week before).

I think those BET airings helps ratings on ABC, but I have no idea how much. Could be negligible, could be multiple tenths.

Spot said...

I don't know if someone will actually buy the two of them together, I just think it's a possibility, one that was mentioned before when OUAT in Wonderland was airing. It makes sense to me, because they're all in the same universe and they'll not have to deal with a lot of episodes from the second show. It's not like you're buying a L&O and L&O: SVU pack.

Spot said...

Yes, but they're trying to avoid it, because it would push young demos friendly Bachelor / Bachelorette into airing against Voice.

Plus, at the moment of switch they would have kind of saturation with Bachelorette in summer, Bachelor in fall, and Bachelorette again in spring. So You Think You Can Dance got badly hurt during such maneuver, so now all networks think twice before trying something like that.
But it's unavoidable, if they ever move DWTS to summer, in transition period one franchise will be overexposed and/or other on longer than usual hiatus.

Spot said...

Sounds like schedule fodder a la Galavant

Spot said...

Summer burnoff it is.

Spot said...

That was just bad, if people are already losing interest in the show at this point, bringing in even more new characters is just going to further alienate the remaining fans. You might as well make up a new show altogether.

Spot said...

That was a complete waste of time tbh at least the other upfronts gave us early renewals and whatnot instead of the same old PR talk that we're already getting with the press releases.

Spot said...

I'm not really sure what provoked the big drop in week two, as I thought the first two eps of Agent Carter were pretty damn good. However, I think it's gonna take at least one more big (probably fatal) lump to the head in two weeks, both because of State of the Union interrupting it and because the third ep was rather lackluster and inconsequential.

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