Thursday, January 22, 2015

The Question, Thursday 1/22/15: Will Backstrom Detect an Audience?


Fox's smashing success with Empire is the biggest ratings story of 2015 to date. And tonight, the network looks to go two for two with American Idol lead-outs as they launch new crime drama Backstrom, the latest attempt to rekindle the House magic. It comes from Hart Hanson, a creator who has had great success on Fox with Bones, and stars recognizable TV face Rainn Wilson as what the promos call a "brilliant detective, total jerk." Starting off well tonight is essential as TGIT and then The Blacklist will liven up the Thursday landscape in the coming weeks. Will Backstrom detect an audience? That's The Question for Thursday, January 22, 2015.

Rake & American Idol This/Last Season
1.7 (Rake premiere, 1/23/14)
3.4 (American Idol, 1/23/14) (3.6 in 8:30 half-hour)
1.11 (Rake Thursday average)
3.1 -> 2.6 (Idol two-hour Thursday eps this season)

As I said a couple weeks ago, this show feels a lot like the legal drama Rake that Fox tried in this timeslot last season. That show was a huge bomb, only mustering a 1.7 on a premiere night with little competition, and it aired out of a stronger Idol than Backstrom should get tonight. Despite Fox's recent momentum with Empire, it's hard for me to see this show doing a lot better than Rake. But I'm also hesitant to go much lower, simply because Rake was a failure of an uncommon magnitude. So I see the opening ratings being pretty similar.

Over/Under: 1.75.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

37 comments:

Spot said...

Rake 2.0.

Under.

Spot said...

It really feels like Rake 2.0 down to the promos, down to the time slot, etc.

Spot said...

Over, a 2.0.

Spot said...

Over. I'm thinking a 1.9

Spot said...

Over

But barely, and only because other networks are still in winter filler mode.
I really can see first tree episodes trajectory being 1.8 --> 1.2 --> 0.8.

Dumped into death slot vs Scandal and Blacklist, with never weaker Idol leading into it, and having very "being there done that" feel... ratings should turn beet red very soon. I'd be surprised if it isn't cancelled in less than a month from now.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

It will be another rake but there is no competition tonight and i expect fox to have promoted it a lot in empire last night. A 1.8/1.9 for the premiere should be possible

Over

Spot said...

Under. I predict 1.6 since while there's dead air on the other networks, there's little buzz, and the "cop/lawyer/doctor/analyst who's mean but smart" is overplayed to death. But it'll get way worse when Red v. Pope comes. Scandal will have all the housewives, Blacklist will have all the procedural fans, and Backstrom gets the table scraps.

Spot said...

I'm revising my prediction to under. I can see Idol doing a 2.4-2.5 tonight and this getting ~66% retention at a 1.6

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

juuuuust over

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over. But dead by week 4.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I am an optimist who loved The Office and Dwight Schrute, but I have to say Under on this one. CBS passed on it, and they are not known for looking for critical gold when it comes to their procedurals (Madam Secretary is their only newbie with really any critical backing) and they PASSED on this show. CBS is also not known for critical gold when it comes to comedy (2 Broke Girls is the worst), and they passed on Super Fun Night last year, and look how that turned out. Even freakin' Ringer was a passed on CBS show that failed on the CW.

Spot said...

under (1.7) This premiere number isn't even that bad if you take Empire out of the equation, but it's going to ultimately tank thanks to TGIT

Spot said...

Keep in mind Idol only had a 2.3 in the first hour last week. It may hit a 2.0 this week, but the competition will become INSANE. Week #2: Return of #1 veteran Scandal. Week #3: Arrival of Superbowl promoted The Blacklist. Week #4: 1 hour Series finale of 12 year Veteran Two and a Half Men. Plus Idol will be done with Auditions during this time!
Even if it SOMEHOW manages decent numbers through this, its Idol lead in will be replaced with Bones later. Can I leave my Cancel (Confident) here now?

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under. Please let me finally get a Question right in 2015, Fox.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

No, week #5 is the 2.5 Men finale.

Spot said...

There will be no week #5 for Backstrom. Not on Thursday, at least.

Spot said...

Thanks for clarifying

Spot said...

Under
Idol is weaker and Backstrom looks like Rake. Maybe 1.6 or 1.7.

Spot said...

Hart Hanson struck it big with "Bones" but faltered with the short-lived "The Finder". Tough competition in the Thursdays ahead, but it has been a good season for procedurals like "Mysteries of Laura". "Backstrom" is better than "Laura" but is also not a must-see program.

Under.

Spot said...

OVER...thanks entirely to the gift of ABC's TGIT vacation: 2.1

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

That would make it even more like Rake.

Spot said...

Laura's last episode got a 1.0 and more often than not it's been getting low 1s.
Most of the hit shows have been serialized: Empire, HTGAWM, Flash, Gotham.

Spot said...

I've been skidding a lot lately. Which is fair warning to anyone who isn't confident in their under votes to change them now, because I agree w/ Spot - Backstrom feels like a failure in the making. Rake's premiere rating is the best it can hope for in my (obviously skewered) opinion.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Don't worry, it's just a prediction either way.

Spot said...

While I'm guessing that Fox has been promoting this show a lot during American Idol and Empire, I don't think the latter's audience is going to show up for this. While Hart Hanson has given us Bones, he also gave us The Finder. And that was a spin-off!


Under.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.