Monday, January 19, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Monday 1/12/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: An uptick for The Bachelor (1.8) put it narrowly ahead of Celebrity Apprentice. Things got even uglier in the 10/9c hour as Castle (1.3) and State of Affairs (0.7) each adjusted down to a new low.
  • Opposite a record-setting college football national championship game on ESPN, things got ugly for round two of The Bachelor (1.7) vs. Celebrity Apprentice (1.7). A half-point drop for The Bachelor is particularly alarming given its audience should be pretty much the opposite of the ESPN game skew-wise; after all, it premiered at a very good 2.7 vs. the big game last year.
  • Leading out of these were Castle (1.4), which tied the series low from its last episode after The Great Christmas Light Fight, and another new depth for State of Affairs (0.8). (It's hard to imagine that Light Fight on December 8 and last night's The Bachelor actually had the same rating!)
  • Like during the holidays, Mike and Molly (2.1) was the broadcast night's most impressive show amid a sea of CBS repeats. Repeats of note included an Empire pilot encore (0.8) and the first two episodes of Jane the Virgin (0.3/0.3), on the heels of its big night at the Golden Globes.
  • UPDATE: The first college football national championship game averaged 33.395 million viewers, about 30% above last year and easily a new record for cable TV. It was slightly behind the CFB record, 35.6 million in 2006 (though that was on ABC).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Bachelor 1.8 35% -18%-0.4n/a 2/2 -22% -15% -20% 1.8
Castle 1.3 24% -7%-0.1+0.1 11/11 -32% -47% -32% 1.5
ABC:-26%-23%
The Big Bang Theory (R) 1.9 24% -21% -37% 1.9
Mike and Molly 2.1 29% -5%-0.1-0.5 2/6 -13% -5% -22% 2.1
NCIS: Los Angeles (R) 1.2 23% -51% -48% 1.2
Scorpion (R) 1.1 26% -44% -4% 1.4
CBS:-36%-32%
Celebrity Apprentice 1.7 37% -15%-0.3n/a 3/3 n/a -15% -8% 1.7
State of Affairs 0.7 25% -30%-0.3-0.3 8/8 n/a -30% -73% 1.0
NBC:-18%-34%
Empire (R) 0.8 37% -69% -60% 1.0
Sleepy Hollow (R) 0.5 35% -69% -77% 0.8
Fox:-68%-69%
Jane the Virgin (R) 0.3 36% +20% -33% 0.4
Jane the Virgin (R) 0.3 34% +0% +20% 0.4
CW:+20%-14%
Big5:-36%-39%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

10 comments:

Spot said...

I think CBS is going to have to just debut a sitcom as an anchor and nurture it into that kind of status a la How I Met Your Mother or Modern Family. If Thursday Night Football is still a thing for the network, then that changes the calculus a little bit, but I don't really know if it's avoidable.


If CBS goes for TNF again, two things should happen:
1. It gets the full slate of games and pushes the entertainment series to a January debut.
2. The Big Bang Theory permanently moves to Monday.


Us in the gallery seem pretty agreed that the jerkaround did some damage to TBBT. So I'd swap TBBT and 2 Broke Girls and launch a new sitcom out of at least one of them.

Spot said...

You're missing the point. If Melissa McCarthy would, like Kevin Bacon or Viola Davis, say "limited number of episodes or nothing", thus making 22 episodes not being an option, what is better financial plan then: zero episodes or 13 episodes?

Spot said...

I don't follow the casting of The Bachelor, so audience rejection may be part of it. But we've also seen that when two reality shows have to duel it out in a timeslot it's difficult for them to co-exist. For example: Hell's Kitchen really took it on the chin having to face Survivor this Fall, and the one-off Shark Tank episode against it last season would have been its season low had Fox not aired an episode during the July 4th holiday halo. Dancing with the Stars also started diving when The Voice came out but has stemmed the bleeding since NBC's show has started its own ratings descent.

Spot said...

CBS can not get 16 games package, that's impossible to happen. It's either 8 games, either zero games (if NFL opts out), with 8 games seeming much more likely outcome.

Corollary, moving TBBT permanently is impossible to happen, because it would mean last 30 of 35 regular season Thursdays would have no TBBT,, nor football, which would mean CBS Thursday ratings would collapse bellow their Friday ratings.

Spot said...

They've had episodes where Molly is gone for a majority of the episode while she films movies.

Spot said...

I believe that money talks; if CBS offers the NFL/NFL Network enough money through a competitive bid and sharing the ad revenue, they could get the full slate. The NFL should take the long view and raise awareness/importance of the Thursday Night Football games by making CBS do the heavy lifting, then ultimately not renew and make it an NFL Network-only/local CBS affiliate thing.


Even if TNF is only for 8 weeks on CBS again, I think the idea of permanently swapping TBBT and 2 Broke Girls should be on the table. All of these in-season timeslot swaps reek of desperation.

Spot said...

It seems you perceive NFL Network as a minor channel, like OWN, or El Rey are. It's not, NFLN revenue is $1.5 billion a year, or close to it. NFL will never kill it's golden goose (which giving full slate to other network would clearly mean) unless offer would be $2 billion or so. And CBS can't bid not even half of that amount. That kind of money can offer only ESPN, but they won't. Not for the least attractive Thursday package, that is.

Spot said...

Ohio State vs Oregon

Total viewers: 33.4 million - ""the largest audiences in cable TV history"

HH: 18.2 rating "was the second-highest for a title game, behind the massive 21.7 for the 2006 classic between Texas and Southern Cal in the Rose Bowl."

A18-49 : not yet released

Spot said...

While the numbers are out-of-date on Wikipedia, the NFL network is only in approximately 62% of households while OWN is in almost 73%. If the NFL wanted to expand the reach of its network and eventually draw in more revenue via higher retrans fees, yanking the games back after more exposure on CBS could persuade the hold-out households to add the channel as part of their cable package.


The NFL's real golden goose is how much NBC, CBS, Fox, and ESPN pony up for the Sunday/Monday games, almost $5 billion/annually.

Spot said...

Now I see what you don't understand here. It's not about how many subscribers particular network has, but about how much fee per subscriber they get from MVPDs. SNL Kagan estimations say NFLN gets on average $1.22 a month per subscriber. According to their research only ESPN ($6.04) and TNT ($1.48) manage to get price higher than that.
So even if NFLN penetration would be only 10% of households, the network would make more money than OWN makes from its 72% penetration.

On the other hand, if they would lose all games, no MVPD would pay them as much, because games are what makes NFLN "must have channel". In fact, they would pay them just few cents per subscriber they're giving miniscule networks like OWN is. Both fees money and ads money would diminish, and they could close the shop as well.

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