Thursday, January 29, 2015

The Question, Thursday 1/29/15: Will ABC Be Thankful for TGIT's Return Ratings?


To borrow a joke from last year, ABC sure is glad to get the bad Taste out of its mouth. Tonight, the three-hour lineup of Shonda Rhimes-produced dramas known as "TGIT" is back on the air, and unlike last year (when they were held due to the Olympics) ABC gets to count the block in its February sweeps ratings. Since TGIT ended before Thanksgiving in 2014, though, the length of the hiatus was similar - just a week less than in the 2013-14 season. And these shows lost their "story of the season" status without even airing thanks to a Fox drama called Empire. Will ABC be thankful for TGIT's return ratings? That's The Question for Thursday, January 29, 2015.




TGIT This Season
3.1/2.53/2.4 (Grey's Anatomy premiere/avg/fall finale)
3.8/3.14/3.1 (Scandal premiere/avg/fall finale)
3.8/3.04/3.1 (HTGAWM premiere/avg/fall finale)

This three-hour block thoroughly dominated the Thursday entertainment landscape in the fall, but it will find a tougher slate of competitors for its return. Even if Backstrom tanks in week two, an American Idol-led Fox will be far stronger than it ever was in the fall. NBC figures to have one of its best Thursdays of the season with a two-hour The Biggest Loser finale and the Parenthood series finale. And The Big Bang Theory is back in original business. These shows aren't so overwhelming that TGIT can't increase from the fall finales, as Grey's and Scandal did last year. But I don't see them making serious runs at the fall premiere numbers.

Grey's Anatomy PLUS Scandal PLUS How to Get Away with Murder Over/Under: 9.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

45 comments:

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Over.


The hype for the return of TGIT is crazy high.

Spot said...

Under. I think they'll all be close to the finale numbers, but even if they're up a bit, it won't be enough to go over, especially for the 8pm hour.

Spot said...

Over. Murder had a stunning cliffhanger and actually spiked for the finale. Apparantly, Olivia Pope is kidnapped, so it'll probably boost with that good cliffhanger.

Spot said...

Under. The competition is just too strong in my eyes.
Grey's: 2.4
Scandal: 3.3
Murder: 3.2

Spot said...

Interesting. Mmm...Under. Why not?

Spot said...

All shows had very good fall finales and the hype for its return is crazy. On Scandal particularly, Olivia Pope has been kidnapped.

My guesses:
Grey's: 2.7-2.8
Scandal: 3.4
Murder: 3.3

It should be close but I am going with an over, I hope Grey's can get there, I think that's the hardest one.

Over.

Spot said...

Our predictions are roughly on the same place.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Grey's, let's say 2.7 at best. That leaves 6.7 between the other two.. to me it sounds too reliant on the best case scenario occurring for each show, especially with Grey's facing TBBT + Idol.


Under

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Btw, did you know Empire will premiere on FOXLife?

Spot said...

Grey's: 2.5-2.8
Scandal: 3.2-3.5
Murder: 3.1-3.4


My best case scenario has them at 9.7, my worst at 8.8, close call but I'm picking under.

Spot said...

Ugh.

Spot said...

Under

9.30 = 2.6 + 3.4 + 3.3.
I'm pretty sure all three shows will return at few ticks above fall finale, and some half a point bellow season premiere. As Spot used same logic for setting the line, no wonder me getting the same number, and having zero confidence in under being the right call here.

Spot said...

Under, but close.

Spot said...

Grey's Anatomy-2.7
Scandal-3.4
Murder-3.3

Over, but I'm really not sure.

Spot said...

Unofficial question thread!
Will Backstrom giving its ratings back?
Backstrom returns in week 2 with a lot of things against it. All three networks getting stronger at once (with Scandal possibly doing 5 times what the Taste did)
Over/Under: 1.45

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Here's what I expect:
Grey's: 2.6
Scandal: 3.3
Murder: 3.1

That would total to 9...so under.

Spot said...

Under.


I was overly pessimistic and predicted a 1.4 for Backstrom's premiere, I'm sticking with it to be its week 2 rating.

Spot said...

I'll go under, and will pray to any god who will listen that I can finally get a question right this year.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Ever so slightly UNDER

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under at 1.2. New shows often drop 20% in Week 2 even when competition doesn't change w2w. Here we have show that gets significantly increased competition, combined with bad word of mouth. Thumb down.

At the day Fox their announced midseason, I predicted around 4th episode Backstrom to be beaten by The Vampire Diaries in A18-49 (though not by Reign), and maybe even by Glee. Others corrected me. Backstrom won't fall so low, they said -- but only because this year Fox has Bones on the bench, so Backstrom will be pulled off the schedule swiftly (unlike last year when they were forced to put up with Rake for some time).

Spot said...

Greys-2.6
Scandal-3.4
HTGAWM-3.3

9.3 and Under but barely.

Spot said...

Of course they're more than thankful for their big TGIT night back after an embarrassing Sundays lineup, underwhelming bridge shows, etc.

Spot said...

Over, over, over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under with quite some confidence. But I actually think its biggest problem will be the blacklist as I believe there is more crossover there than with Scandal.

Spot said...

Under 9.35.

But ABC will gladly welcome back its TGIT lineup regardless.

Spot said...

We might say that NBC and FOX are on network's ICU, but USA is the ultimate example of a dead channel.


A 20% drop for a USA show today is a "success", their ratings standard is lower than ever, their past hits all ended as blips.


They might as well go against cable's current trend of airing more originals and just put NCIS/SVU repeats forever.

Spot said...

Over!

Spot said...

Me too. Actually I'm going with Over just because I was thinking about saying Under. lol

Spot said...

Don't see it happening. Murder and Scandal might do their parts to get over that hump, but I just think it's a big ask of Grey's based on the fall numbers. Under.

Spot said...

Over. Just by a hair.
Scandal 3.4
Murder 3.3-3.4
Grey's 2.6-2.7

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Good idea, at least one of us can get on the board this year.

Spot said...

;)

Spot said...

Under.

Another thing that's happened since the break: ABC News paying for an interview with Darren Wilson. That sparked some fairly significant boycott talk from the black feminists on my Twitter feed, and while I'm not sure that'll translate to *much* of a hit - especially considering the same demo have just flocked en masse to a show on FOX, given FNC's history - it's enough for me to go against my general itch to never underestimate this block.

Spot said...

I bow to the almighty Spot. A 9.3 actual combined preliminary rating vs your 9.35 selection is scary.

Spot said...

Hallelujah!

I was thinking exactly 9.3 at first, but I'm glad I went with Over on this one. :D

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