Tuesday, January 6, 2015

The Question, Tuesday 1/6/15: Will Agent Carter Be a Ratings Marvel?


For the second time in three nights, ABC is premiering a short-run show designed to fill in for a serialized drama during its hiatus. In this case, that show is ABC's second dip in the Marvel Comics pool, Marvel's Agent Carter. Though it's not quite as closely tied to the ongoing stories in the Marvel Cinematic Universe as Agents of SHIELD, it also brings a prominent character from one of those movies to the table. It explores the 1940s life of Peggy Carter, one of the lead characters in the first Captain America movie. Will Agent Carter be a ratings marvel? That's The Question for Tuesday, January 6, 2015.

Agents of SHIELD This Season
2.0 (premiere, 9/23/14)
1.69 (fall average)
1.7 (finale, 12/9/14)

It seems impossible that this show will capture the same kind of massive premiere audience that Agents of SHIELD did sixteen months ago, but it still might have enough of a movie connection to bring back some of the crowd who gave up on SHIELD early in season one. I always figured this could premiere somewhat better than the upper-1's SHIELD has been doing lately, and I'm not exactly discouraged after seeing how respectably Galavant started off on Sunday.

Over/Under: 2.25. (If the finals separate the 8:00 and 9:00 episodes, the over/under for the sum of the two will be 4.45.)

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment.

59 comments:

Spot said...

Has ABC now got... shudder... the biggest base audience?

Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over, just. A 2.3

Spot said...

Sounds like a perfect line, for what I had in mind anyway. 2.3 sounds good, over.

Spot said...

As I've said before, this is the gap show that Paul Lee and ABC really want to make work; I imagine if there are future seasons it could get the How to Get Away with Murder treatment if Hayley Atwell can't/won't commit to full 22 episode seasons. The network's been relentless in promotion, it's more in ABC's wheelhouse than SHIELD (drama with serialized elements and a strong female lead), and with The Flash and Supernatural in reruns tonight the comic book/genre audience won't be split.

Over.

Spot said...

Over! They have promoted this as much as Galavant and this is much more or a presold concept. I know a lot of people who quickly bailed on Shield want to see this. I have super high hopes!

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Considering AOS only hit a 2.0 this season anything over a 2 is a win for ABC/Disney/Marvel.

Spot said...

Well, if Galavant could scrape out a 2.0, this can probably premiere way above my expectations too. Over with a 2.4.

Spot said...

Over.

Just because of Galavant. Hopefully I won't have regrets this time around. :|

Spot said...

Over at 2.3.


Some people who've seen the promos during the college football playoff will show up. And if Galavant could get a rating in the 2s, then, why not?

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Don't watch much scripted television between Thanksgiving and New Years. And too many obnoxious comments on TVBTN--it feels like a chat room for 13 year olds more often than not. Spottedratings.com feels more like a ratings website for grownups in its civil tone of comments and intelligent content. Agent Carter is one of two shows premiering this season I have been most looking forward to so I had to vote in Spot's poll. Big fan of Marvel, the Captain America films and the Peggy Carter character, in addition to the whole secret agent/spy genre and all of its tropes. Throw in the period setting, Nazis and alien technology and I'm even more committed. Tonight's premiere actually starts out with footage from the Captain America movie to help set up the story. I'll probably still pop up on TVBTN from time to time but thanks for asking

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Just because everyone is saying over, I'm going UNDER - 1.9

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

...while I expected a 2.2, the Galavant numbers tell me promotion, no matter how terrible, goes a long way. So, I'm going Over and following the crowd.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Yikes! I came into this with a 2.2 as my expectation, so that line scares me. I'll just go with the crowd.

Over

Spot said...

I thought ABC's promo department doomed Galavant to "pull me now" numbers. I was wrong. I've thought the same thing of the first few Agent Carter promos. However, the promos got a lot better once they downplayed the era-appropriate sexism angle in favor of just showing Carter being a badass. Ere go, I'm not making the same mistake twice. Over.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I'm going to say Over at 2.5, despite my worry that another show about a Marvel character that isn't a superhero will burn me.

Spot said...

Over. 2.3.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I'll predict the Over. ABC had a good promo campaign linking Agent Carter with the network's history of showcasing strong female characters.

And you made a good point, spotupj -- if even the corny Galavant could earn a modest audience figure, so could Agent Carter.

Spot said...

No problem. Your charm has been sorely missing over there.

Spot said...

Shield has ruined Marvel on TV

Nice for the NCISs, but not really suprising, as CBS procedurals always overpreform in January and February.

Spot said...

Hey, here's a wild idea, ABC: prep a Grey's/Scandal/HTGAWM clip show detailing how the season has been doing in anticipation for TGIT return, on the 29th, and place it at 8, leading into Carter. Considering a similar clip show did a 1.6 on the night of Scandal's third season premiere, it would perhaps help Carter a little.

No? just thinking.

Spot said...

- I was hoping for higher for Agent Carter but this is still acceptable to start. We have to see how it holds in coming weeks. But I didn't think it would start lower than Galavant, I will give them that. On other topics, it is insane that ABC is still planning to air Forever after MAOS's second half instead of airing The Whispers there. Insane!
- NBC had a predictably horrible 9pm hour but that Parks reran did pretty okay (tied originals from last year if I am not mistaken) and Chicago Fire is their truly unsung hero, such an impressive jump at 10pm!
- CBS continues its traditional winter dominance with all three shows posting big gains. Still, I will argue that Scorpion and LA's numbers on Monday were a tad more impressive than NO and POI last night.
- Masterchef Jr. and New girl did well but that's quite a drop for Mindy.

Spot said...

I guess Marvel will rule in the movies still, and DC will rule TV, as it's always been.

Spot said...

Guess ABC thinks Whispers has no chance. The midseason, Forever's pickup, no premiere date or slot when all other dramas and comedies do.

Spot said...

That's a little disappointing for Agent Carter, but I feel like it could have outdone Galavant's numbers if a massively rated game had finished right before it premiered. The drop at 9 is somewhat worrisome, but Shield dropped 30% in episode 2!

Spot said...

Parks series low is a .9

Spot said...

Yikes at Agent Carter. I actually thought the second hour would be stronger than the first because New Girl/Mindy Project would be weaker competition. Perhaps they need to drop the "Marvel" part from its name. I always thought it was silly/stupid anyway; we don't see "DC Comics' Arrow" on The CW.

MasterChef Junior's debut is good news for Fox. Maybe instead of longer seasons a la the parent show Fox will try 3 of these short 6-episode ones, though that may dry up the talent pool faster. If they go that route, Fox should at least squeeze one extra episode out to get a 21 episode "season" of 3, 7-ep cycles.

The MVP of the night is definitely Chicago Fire. I'm actually surprised I haven't read reports about possibly creating a second spin-off called Chicago Medical (ChiMed). Lo the ratings benefit that would come from all three Chi shows plus SVU in a mega crossover event.

Spot said...

The Night Shift is essentially the show that a Chicago MD show would be. Having two around would be highly redundant and could even cause audience erosion. So I think NBC will now try to make TNS work in the regular season. If for some reason it fails, then I fully expect than in September 2016 we have a Chicago MD show on the schedule, especially considering that SVU should have ended or be very close to it by then.

Spot said...

Marvel is done on television, their last resort is Netflix.


NBC comedies are just depressing, odd of Parks and Rec finishing as NBC's #1 comedy for the season, over/under 50%?


Masterchef Junior will keep airing two cycles of eight episodes next season, it's good numbers are also good to give Hell's Kitchen a rest.

Spot said...

I thing "Agents of SHIELD" messed up so badly its first season - starting out strong and then getting really weak - that it essentially tainted the whole TV end of the franchise. Even though it has supposedly gotten better in season 2 (I don't know since I stopped watching after episode three of season one) I think it's too little too late. I think many potential viewers feel "Carter" is just more of the same so why bother. Personally, I liked “Carter” much more than I like “AofS” out of the gate and I will tune in for the next episode. It will be interesting to see if the numbers hold steady.

Spot said...

Totally agree with your comment about "SHIELD."

Spot said...

Under. Last summer Undateable scored a 0.9 average up as a no-thought burn-off airing from HGN against NBA playoffs. Then I really can't see it being weaker than mega flop Marry Me with a voice lead-in and that show managed a 1.50. P&R did a 1.15 last year in horrible circumstances too, so it should get an upgrade now as well, but I don't think it will be quite as big as Undateable.

I guess: Undateable > Parks > Marry Me (for premiere numbers alone I guess) > One Big Happy > About a Boy > Bad Judge > A to Z

Spot said...

Midseason per se isn't a bad thing, especially now that networks are scattering their launches to better promote each batch of new shows. Neither would be Forever's back nine as there was still time to turn it into only some kind of extension a la Stalker and move the remaining to some burn off slot or not air it at all. But not slotting it yet is indeed a bad sign.

The only two explanations I can find are:
1) Yes, ABC isn't high on the show or
2) ABC was waiting to see how Carter premiered to announce whether it was premiering out of the last Carter episodes or out of Shield's first episodes.

Spot said...

I've been on board of this theory for a few days. Carter's best comparsion is Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, a spinoff of a then weakening show (OUAT was down 30% year to year in the fall 2013) that got quickly canceled.


Carter is what Wonderland was meant to be in the beginning of its development, a bridge show, it also got better ratings (1.9 in january is better than 1.7 in october, not to mention there is one season between them) but I'm not optimistic, its final half-hour got a 1.7 and I expect it to drop to this number in week 2.

Spot said...

ER is literally Chicago MD for the record. I mean it was literally set in Chicago!

Spot said...

I know. Which would fit perfectly into the 30 Rock of NBC trying to make it 1997 again through science or magic.


And you just know that NBC would be banging down the doors of some of the ER players to come back for ChiMed.

Spot said...

I get your comparisons on a conceptual basis, but not so much on a ratings perspective.

If it does a 1.7 next week and settles there, then it's at Shield's levels which is quite okay for a bridge show, regardless of what the expectations were. I liked Wonderland but it was one of the biggest flops on TV last season from the second episode onwards and the premiere was pretty much a result that spelled doom anyway, unlike Carter's, which I think had a pretty much "could go either way" premiere. Wonderland premiered at a level that was still way below the series of its parent show at the time. Agent Carter's premiere almost tied its parent show own season premiere.

Spot said...

I think Forever could be finished by like March 24th (sooner if not for SOTU). They could launch March 31st and have 7 episodes in season.

Spot said...

Jack would love to have The Night Shift - Starring Jerry Seinfeld!

Spot said...

I think they should just finish it February 24th and launch The Whispers the following week, aka the same night MAOS's second part of the season premieres. They can premiere it as a block. That way it could air 12 episodes in the season - I am assuming it got something close to a regular season order and not just 7-8 episodes since nothing has been announced about that as far as I know. ABC's other midseason dramas (Secrets and Lies and American Crime) have 10-11.

Spot said...

I don't know if I necessarily agree with a potential ChiMed series causing audience erosion for Night Shift. Procedural pairings tend to be more beneficial. As for "highly redundant," look at well CBS has done with the NCISs and CSIs. Worse comes to worst, NBC could cancel The Night Shift and replace it with ChiMed.

This parlor game of guessing how many shows NBC will ring out of Chicago Fire is fun. ChiLaw anyone?

Spot said...

I agree with your argument, you are right. It just feels to me that the shows would be overly similar without actually being advertised as a spin off or such so one would end up being a poor man's version of the other. But I probably have a preconceived idea about what Chicago MD would be and that's exactly what the night shift is, so I guess you could make the shows different enough for them to work despite the similar themes.

Spot said...

Idea of Chicago Med was float around:
http://www.tvguide.com/news/dick-wolf-chigago-fire-pd-franchise-1072660.aspx

I remember Amanda Righetti (The Mentalist) was mentioned in context of that idea, as she guest starred in both Chicago shows as Dr. Holly Thelan. But she's now cast in USA drama pilot Colony. Then probably they won't go in that direction.
Anyway, I have no ides if they've put a pin in Chicago Med idea, or if they've completely abandoned it.

Spot said...

Could Forever's 4 remaining episodes on Mondays and have basically no Castle repeats?

Spot said...

Yes, it is possible. Although I am not sure it is worth it. Castle has been repeating around the 0.8-0.9 mark lately and I think it will do a 1.0-1.1 if it repeats behind DWTS. Forever is doing that on Tuesdays and while the pairing with DWTS could help, an unpromoted move like that (and ABC should not bother promoting said move, really) should more than offset that. So I see little gain.

Spot said...

There's 18 weeks of regular season left, and The Whispers is supposed to have 13 episodes. As 3 to 4 weeks should be enough for promotion, it's not yet time to panic. But if ABC doesn't announce premiere date inside next 14 days... then yes, you're right, they don't like it and they pushed it to summer, late spring at best.

Spot said...

Why does ABC get a shudder for the biggest basd audience? If I had to pick a broadcast network that had the best shows, I'd probably pick ABC

Spot said...

Perfect pick

Spot said...

Honestly, I'm a bit surprised I hit this one on the nose.

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