Thursday, January 22, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 1/16/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Fox had a pretty good start out of blooper series World's Funniest Fails (1.0), which was a marked improvement on pretty much everything the network has aired on Friday this season. And it may have helped Glee (0.7) avoid a post-premiere drop.
  • On ABC, Shark Tank (2.2) exploded to a season high at 9/8c. 8/7c comedies Last Man Standing (1.3) and Cristela (1.1) both came back to earth from big stunt numbers last week; however, that was still pretty decent news for Cristela, leaving it considerably ahead of some of its ratings from December. 
  • NBC's flip of Constantine (0.8) to 8/7c and Dateline (1.0) to 10/9c did not go well; it was of no help to Constantine and seemingly hurtful to Dateline. Meanwhile, Grimm (1.2) came back at the low end of its ratings this season.
  • With a stronger show at 8/7c, CBS remained improved over its usual fall ratings with the extremely consistent trio Undercover Boss (1.4), Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) and Blue Bloods (1.4).
  • And the CW had a strong start out of Hart of Dixie (0.4) at 8/7c. It only got that high once in nine Friday tries last season (though that run came in the 9/8c hour).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.3 24% -19%-0.3n/a 3/12 -7% -19% -7% 1.5
Cristela 1.1 27% -15%-0.2-0.3 4/11 n/a -15% +22% 1.4
Shark Tank 2.2 32% +22%+0.4n/a 1/14 +5% +13% +5% 2.4
20/20 1.4 33% +0%+0.0+0.3 5/17 -18% +0% -15% 1.5
ABC:+0%-2%
Undercover Boss 1.4 21% -7%-0.1n/a 4/6 -13% -10% -15% 1.6
Hawaii Five-0 1.5 18% +0%+0.0-0.1 1/12 +0% +0% +0% 1.7
Blue Bloods 1.4 14% +0%+0.0+0.0 1/12 +0% +0% +0% 1.7
CBS:-3%-5%
Constantine 0.8 33% -20%-0.2n/a 7/9 n/a +60% -47% 1.1
Grimm 1.2 33% -8%-0.1-0.5 5/9 -20% +9% -23% 1.6
Dateline Fri 1.0 28% -9%-0.1+0.7 14/15 -33% +122% +11% 1.4
NBC:+46%-24%
World's Funniest Fails 1.0 38% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +33% -31% 1.2
Glee 0.7 45% +0%+0.0+0.2 2/3 n/a +0% +8% 1.1
Fox:+17%-19%
Hart of Dixie 0.4 45% +0%+0.0n/a 1/2 -20% +60% +0% 0.5
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 43% +50% +0% 0.4
Masters of Illusion 0.3 37% +50%+0.1+0.1 1/2 n/a +50% +0% 0.5
CW:+56%+0%
Big5:+11%-11%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

58 comments:

Spot said...

I am not actually sure how independent both companies are. I was under the impression both were part of the same financial group. While that still means they have separate balance sheets and income and loss statements, it also means those really aren't the relevant indicators, but instead the consolidated ones. If they are as autonomous are you suggest, this doesn't apply but again, that wasn't my impression.

Spot said...

No, they're not independent. I didn't mean to say that. Yes, they're part of the same corporation, 21st Century Fox. I still don't see how it leads to studio giving show to its sibling network for nothing.

Spot said...

FOX new executives have been hired to put the network demmands close to the demmands from the studio.


They want a CBS-like syndication machine, Sleepy Hollow being more procedural indicates that, FOX is moving towards broad-appealing shows instead of niche ones like during the Reilly era.


If they'll be successful or Greenblatt, time will tell.

Spot said...

And way better than Sundays for them.

Spot said...

Just in: Fox in talks with Simon Cowell about "a performance oriented show as well as other types of shows."

Now we must wait if that show is picked, as it has great consequences on their fall schedule. If it's picked, I'd expect it to be 2 hours. Because 3 is too much, and I'd expect Simon's show to be more than 1 hour. With MasterChef Junior and Tuesday comedy block being fixtures, there's room for only 6 dramas. In turn, it probably pushes Sleepy Hollow to midseason. That's becuase 22-episodes Bones can't premiere in midseason.

However, with no new Simon show, there's room for 7 dramas (including Sleepy Hollow) in fall schedule. Things got complicated - I would have different opinion an hour ago. we all must rethink it now.

Spot said...

Dana Walden and Gary Newman, the folks who did the Fox Network's TCA presentation this morning, oversee Fox Television Group, which consists of both the broadcast network and the production company. Indeed, Fox restructured the company when they fired Kevin Reilly to put them under the same management.

So, yes, I do believe that Fox gets to use the balance sheets to work out sweetheart deals for themselves and it isn't just a matter of license fees negotiated by independent companies.

Spot said...

In late fall some British tabloid reported nonsense about (deader than disco) U.S. version of The X-Factor being resurrected. But it turns they were right about one thing: Today at TCA new Fox chairmen Dana Walden and Gary Newman said they did meet Simon Cowell in London at that time, and there were talks about "a performance oriented show as well as other types of shows."

I think it is significant news, because picking of that show would have great impact on Fox fall schedule. I think it would be 2 hours show, because it's Simon's show after all. But not 3 hours, as for fall Fox will renew 3 or 4 dramas, plus they will order 2 or 3 new dramas. With MasterChef Junior and Tuesday comedy block, there's no room for 3 hours per week of some reality extravaganza.

Anyway, if new Simon's show is picked, then it's for fall, assuming Idol is in midseason.
And it is 2 hours as I assume, then Monday to Friday probably would consist of:
3 hours of reality
6 dramas
1 comedy block

Now, without new Simon's show it's very different:
1 or 2 hours of reality - probably 2
6 or 7 dramas - probably 7
1 or 2 comedy blocks - probably 1

Spot said...

Except Paul Lee and Bob Greenblatt also oversee their companies production arms too.

And it's not about charging a random number. In fact, it's to prevent that situation where a license fee has to be plucked out of thin air for accounting purposes. Instead, they can use the real production costs and long-term estimates at the value of syndication to make decisions that benefit the company in the long-term. Indeed, there's a reason networks are increasingly focusing on in-house shows.

Spot said...

I keep seeing 15 episodes of Scream Queens being banded about, which is what other shows like The Following have had. So I'd go with that.

Spot said...

I think they're focusing on in-house shows because with ever dropping ratings, and CPM price increase not able anymore to follow it, ad income keeps dropping, so media corporations are asking networks to help their sibling production arms increase revenue from syndication (and streaming, international...). Them now resigned to slowly losing ads money to digital, thus focusing on battles with at least hope for win.

Back to what we disagree. Network CEO and his people are responsible to have on air shows with ads income exceeding show's airing fee. They pull of schedule losers and put backups or repeats into that timeslot. Yes, sometimes they let loser runs out its order (and simply don't renew it in May), but that's because of scheduling reasons. If it's outside production, they don't know how much show is earning out of first airing, neither is their job to know that.

Studio CEO and his people are responsible to have shows with sum of revenues from first airing fee, syndication, streaming, international and whatnot exceeding production cost. If their calculations show it's impossible to achieve, then they don't even approach network about renewal talks. If it's not sibling network, they don't know what show's earning from ads (though they can well estimate it, because publicly known Live+SD ratings are good approximation for C3 ratings), neither is their job to know that.

I see no reason why would they treat sister studio shows differently. While you (and omabin) are suggesting there's other business logic for such shows. You think there's some 3rd set of people (or entire division) that calculates income of both network (ads), and studio (projected syndication revenue, and other current/future revenue), and costs for both network (promotion) and studio (production), just to make conclusion if show is profitable on corporation level. Theoretically it seems OK, but I find hard to believe they would hire (and pay) bunch of people, and just to learn something network arm and studio arm already know (each just for their respective part of business, not comprehensively, I must admit).

First problem here is I'm not TV business insider. Meaning, I'm just logically concluding here, and thus I might be wrong.

Second problem is I'm using word "negotiate". It's correct word for describing renewal talks with outside studio, but is probably too strong of a word regarding talks with sibling studio, "confer" or "consult" might be better word.

Spot said...

Dana Walden revealed some of scheduling plans to Deadline:

Monday: Gotham into genre drama, probably Minority Report.
Tuesday: "Fox execs would love to again have a two-hour comedy block on Tuesday but that is not a firm mandate in today’s environment where all networks are struggling to find strong half-hour performers. Fox could go with an one-hour leading into two comedy series."

Wednesday: "Fox brass would like to keep fellow renewed freshman drama Empire on Wednesday, possibly with a different unscripted lead-in, like MasterChef Jr. in the fall, before American Idol comes back."

Sunday: remains mixing live-action and animated comedies,

Link: http://deadline.com/2015/01/new-girl-mindy-project-future-scheduling-fox-dana-walden-1201352538/

Spot said...

My comments:

Monday: Duh.

Tuesday: I get it, if Simon Cowell show is a go, they have no other slot for Screen Queens but Tue 8 PM. And even if there would be no Simon, they might like drama pilots more than comedy pilots, have 3rd new drama, and not expand comedies.

Wednesday: Empire at 9 PM is strange. At least they're not complete idiots, it stays on the night. And If it is at 9 PM, then giving it unscripted lead-in isn't the worst possible idea.

Thursday: Obviously they plan Screen Queens / Sleepy Hollow. If Sleepy Hollow is cancelled or pushed to midseason, then Bones. In any case, it would be moronic to launch new drama against Scandal / Blacklist cpmbo (which they will learn soon from cautionary Backstrom story). Anyway, if both Bones and Sleepy Hollow are renewed for fall, I like Bones on Friday more. It seems to me it would be less hurt by a move to weekend than Sleepy Hollow would be.

Friday: Up in the air, and depends on Simon's hypothetical show. Could easily be cheap reality into Bones. Maybe Mindy burn off, if Tuesday is Screen Queens / new comedy / New Girl.

Sunday: As everybody suspected, it seems it's Bob's Burgers / Simpsons / B99 / Family Guy / new show (probably Bordertown).

Spot said...

Keep in mind everyone that these plans can change at any time and aren't definite. But these seem to be pretty close to what I expect. Anywayz:


Monday: Makes sense.


Tuesday: I understand. I doubt any comedy expansion since the pendulum is swinging to the drama side for pretty much all networks, but I want it to be a dramedy or reality that leads into the night. And if it's a high-profile one, give the lead-in to a new comedy.


Wednesday: Don't get leaving it at 9PM, but hey, better than nothing.


Sunday: So Bob's/Simpsons/Brooklyn/Family/Bordertown?

Spot said...

Another variable is also how many hours will they actually program in the fall. This year, they've effectively only programmed 10 hours (Sunday-Thursday, no Friday programming). If they have enough depth going into next fall (which seemed impossible a couple of months ago), FOX should probably attempt to program at least one Friday hour.


I could see this:
Monday: Gotham + Minority Report
Tuesday: Scream Queens + New Girl + The Mindy Project (or New Comedy + New Girl)
Wednesday: Empire + New Drama
Thursday: Masterchef Jr. + Sleepy Hollow and later 2 hours of American Idol

Friday: Bones + Repeats/ Cheap Reality/Mindy burn-off [Bones launched after World Series only so that it can replaced failed drama if needed]

Sunday: Simpsons + B99 + Family Guy + Bordertown


If there is a new talent show that takes up two hours of the schedule, that will probably just take up Thursday, effectively putting Masterchef Jr. on spackle duty (which is a nice idea anyway) and sending Sleepy Hollow to Fridays (or midseason, but I don't know where there would be room in there). But in any case, I find it unlikely they go with a new talent show for the fall that takes up two hours. First because everything seems way too preliminary right now for that and second because they would probably want to wadge their bets and try it out for one hour first. I would prefer to do it that way anyway. But in any case, they could still replace it with Masterchef Jr., Sleepy Hollow, Bones in some combination.

Spot said...

I'm sure they will go with 12 hours of originals (12.5 counting Bob's Burgers at Sun 7:30 PM). New regime wants to show new brooms sweep clean. Only maybe not in September, but in November after World Series.

Yes, you're right, if they want new talent show for this fall, then they're on very tight schedule. If we don't hear anything about that show in next month or so, then that idea is actually for fall 2016, and I jumped the gun. While for some lower profile reality show they have plenty of time to pick it. But such one surely wouldn't be 2 hours long, and would likely air on Friday.

Your schedule is very good. Certainly better than what Walden hinted yesterday: Wednesday to be Masterchef Junior into Empire.
I strongly dislike that Fox idea - it means Empire is not anchoring night, plus it means all scripted Fox Thursday where other networks are in scripted too, with ABC extremely strong, and CBS / NBC maybe will not be very strong, but certainly won't be weak either.

Spot said...

I don't think there was ever a post in which you agreed with me so much ahah.

Another thing is that it would still be possible to try out a two hour comedy block later in the season if FOX really wanted to, once Scream Queens is over (it's only 15 episodes). I am not sure it will be viable with Zoey Deschanel pregnant (I am sure FOX is not too happy that both Deschanel sisters have decided to get pregnant at the same time) but maybe they can play with that. Say they don't put New Girl on fall's schedule and just do New Comedy (A) + Mindy after Scream Queens. Then, if that new comedy (A) is successful, they can leave it there at midseason, put New Girl at 8 (for say 15 eps) and launch another new comedy at 8h30. If that new comedy is not successful, they put up with it until world series and then double up on Mindy in December; at midseason they could then bring back New Girl to 9pm, finis up Mindy's order and launch New Comedy (B) at 9h30. Ramsay would have to fill in at 8pm in this scenario.

By the way, and totally out of topic, do you have gender breakdowns for January? I haven't been able to find them. Son of the bronx has been posting only the 18-34 and 25-54 lately.

Spot said...

Pregnancy x 2. It was God's will.

Comedies. If New Girl would have shorter season, it's actually logical to not premiere it in September. Because then they get to sample both new comedy and Mindy. Depending on results, newbie is cancelled or capped at 13 (Mindy remains on Tuesday), or given back 9 (Mindy dumped to Friday).

No, I didn't saw any gender breaks. Only showbuzzdaily has something, but it is only shares of A18-49 (not ratings) of broadcast, and only preliminary.
Futoncritic has preliminary W18-34 for all CW shows. But those are all on hiatus except for Hart of Dixie. HoD did 0.5 for Monday episode, and 0.6 W18-34 this Friday. That is relatively good for Friday, Last season HoD was typically scoring 0.5 or 0.6 on Monday, and on Friday typically 0.3 or 0.4, with season finale spiking to 0.6. Though encouraging, that's just one data point, so no one shouldn get too excited.

Spot said...

Thanks. I've seen those shares from futon critic but they really don't mean much if you don't know the total viewership from each gender in each time period. I was hoping you knew some other site in which it was published.

As for HoD, if the CW is serious about summer programming, this is probably the type of show that would fit that bill perfectly. I could see it doing decently paired with Top Model on some day for instance. I am almost sure it at least has a shot. Because I can't see why Pedowitz would have announced final seasons for so many veterans but repeatedly deny it in this case - what would be the reason for such a different behavior? It makes me believe it had a shot if ratings were good. And I am not sure how better than this could have been expected so I think it is still possible. But you are right, only one data point, so no one should get too excited.

Spot said...

CBS has got Thursday Night Football on the same terms as last season with the NFL having the option for another year.

Spot said...

I think this was the worst possible outcome personally. Options:

A) Don't premiere TBBT until November: seems stupid to leave the biggest broadcast program on the shelf during the opening weeks of the season but they would probably win Thursdays for the overall season if they were to do this.

B) Do the same thing as they did this year and have it on Mondays just for the first weeks of the season: It clearly damaged TBBT and given how weaken their comedy state has gotten, they surely should be careful with their mega star and protect it.

C) Move it to Mondays permanently. It is probably the best move for the show itself and for the early fall portion of the calendar but they don't have enough depth on Thursdays to do this. Thursdays would collapse without it.

Spot said...

Replying to myself:
- I think they will do option B) and just jerk it around some more.
- I would prefer if they were to do A) probably. It's a bad option and I recognize it. I just think it's the least bad option.

Spot said...

It's the best possible outcome among 2 possibilities: 0 games or 8 games.

It was reported CBS paid between 250 and 300 million dollars for airing those 8 games, plus production costs for all 16 games. Then it's something like $300 million. Ratings didn't went through the roof, but weren't bad either, so it's speculated they only broke even, looking that way. But what they gained is:

1. Strong promotional platform for their rookies, resulting in 3 new dramas being already renewed, 2 of which being crime procedurals that are likely to make them ton of money in syndication.

2. NBC or Fox not getting Thursday package. For each of those struggling networks it would mean reinvigorating their most weak night, and probably would help their entire lineup (by means of promoting other shows through highly watched football games).

Spot said...

If the financials really only allowed them to break even and it is all about the intangibles, then I think you could come up with pros against it as well. Particularly:
- it gave TGIT an important jump start with them essentially having the entire entertainment crowd for themselves for the first month of the regular season.
- it damaged TBBT due to the jerkaround and one can claim that the overall Thursday lineup was also damaged and is only now beginning to slowly recover. Sure the McCarthys was always going to be a dud but I thought the November results from Mom, Men and Elementary were disappointing and that the shows just got lost in the shuffle there.

Also, if you get into the promotion argument, it goes both ways. Sure, TNF helped them promote the new dramas, but they spent a lot of promotional resources on TNF itself during the summer. Big Brother was a very good example of it, it was crazy how much TNF was being pushed (the houseguests were even allowed out of the house to meet with the players at one point). That was time and money that could have been used to promote the new shows directly instead of indirectly.


I am not arguing it didn't make sense. I think CBS is competent enough on the financial department to guarantee it does makes sense or else they would have found a way to avoid repeating it. But I am not sure the intangibles will position themselves the same way next year. What do you expect to happen? TBBT on Monday with new comedy and then back to Thursdays to launch a second new comedy?

Spot said...

I'm honestly not sure what CBS will do, but I think I'd lean towards C

Monday in fall being TBBT/Comedy/Scorpion, then changing to 2 hour of comedy with Thursday being Scorpion/New Drama.

Spot said...

That's ill-advised plan, because it would mean throwing Scorpion against deadly Scandal / Blacklist combo. CBS wants to shepherd Scorpion into syndication, not to kill it.

I'm 100% sure Thursday will be 2 comedy blocks for entire season as counterprogramming to dramas on other networks. 3rd block will be on Mon 8 PM. They certainly won't expand to 4th block with a lack of comedy block anchors, and a zillion dramas renewed.

Spot said...

That is a nice way of putting it. I agree with most of that.

But you are kind of saying that if the odd couple fails, they must go for B or C, right? Because they will need to launch 2 or 3 fall comedies (depending on whether or not they hold MM again) and I doubt they launch all those comedies on Thursday. If Odd Couple is canned, they probably are forced to do:
Monday: TBBT + New Comedy (1) and later 2 Broke Girls + New Comedy (1)
Thursday: TBBT + New Comedy (2) + Mom + New Comedy (3) [or M&M but that would be risky because new comedies (1) or (2) could collapse and MM be needed then]

Spot said...

I don't see TBBT moving permanently to mondays, so, considering what Silvio said, how could CBS comedy arrangement look like?


Could they premiere a new comedy after TBBT on mondays and move both to thursdays, who gets the post-TBBT lead out and who anchors thursdays at 9, Mom? Odd Couple? new comedy? Does CBS believe that Mom can do well without TBBT's help?

Spot said...

Yes I agree. Scorpion is probably CBS' biggest drama hit in a long time and they went to a a hell lot of trouble to establish it as the Monday anchor, they won't move it now that's worked, especially not to such a deadly slot. My only question with that show would be whether or not it should be used to launch another drama since it has lead-in potential. I wouldn't mind a slide to 8pm to give 9pm to the most promising newbie. They need to stop launching the new dramas at 10pm where the upside is always sort of limited (Murder excluded). Problem with that it that it would require a comedy retraction.

I agree that Thursdays should be 2 hour comedy block. What leads out of that block is a big problem though. It's a horrible place to launch a new drama especially in September and there is no veteran that could endure the move, short of something like Criminal Minds which obviously won't happen.

Spot said...

Now that TNF is back on CBS, could FOX put Simon Cowell's new show on thursdays? Sleepy Hollow is already trending downward and will be a sacrifical lamb against football and both ABC and NBC strongest dramas. Bones is a better fit for fridays considering its age and Scream Queens is female skewing just like TGIT.


It would also be easier to, coming midseason, replace it with Idol, now reduced to one night.

Spot said...

I find the 10pm problem even harder to address than the comedy arrangement.

I think the comedy arrangement will be:
Monday: TBBT + New Comedy (1) and later 2 Broke Girls + New Comedy (1)
Thursday:
TBBT + New Comedy (2) + Mom + New Comedy (3) [or MM but that would
be risky because new comedies (1) or (2) could collapse and MM be
needed then]

The best option, but it will never happen would probably simply be:
Monday: Scorpion + New Drama + LA
Thursday: TBBT + New Comedy + Mom + New Comedy + 2 Broke Girls + Mike and Molly

But networks don't do 3 hours comedy blocks and they probably avoid them for a reason, so this will never happen.

Spot said...

I'm not even considering possibility of The Odd Couple failing.
It will have great lead-in, it has star power in Matthew Perry, concept is easy to understand and accept, it is getting big promotion push.

Spot said...

No, I mean move Scorpion to 8 on Thursday (against Grey's), launching a new drama at 9 and not moving Elementary.



I don't think CBS will do it but I think there's upside there.

Spot said...

Indeed, The Odd Couple will be renewed.even if it is a fraud, also, CBS has only 4 comedies guaranteed to return and one if them is a replacement.


Disagree about Matthew Perry's star power, he might as well jinx it since no show post-Friends starring him has been renewed to a second season.

Spot said...

As Omabin pointed out, Simon Cowell's new talent show is likely for fall 2016 (not for this fall), and I probably jumped the gun here. The fact is those shows have rather long pre-production period to select contestants through multiple phases of auditions. So if in next 30 days we don't hear it's picked, then it's surely for season 2016-17.

Whether it's for fall 2015 or 2016, I absolutely like new Simon being 2-hours on Thursday. Everything is like you said:
Other networks are now all-scripted on Thursday, and it's likely it will remain so in the future. Plus, if they're smart Idol will be Thursday 2 hours (if Idol survives that long), and they would have most smooth ever transition from fall schedule to midseason schedule.

Spot said...

Your arguments are all flawed:
- "Great lead-in": The only newbie TBBT lead-out ever renewed was the millers and even CBS regretted it, canning it after 5 episodes. Rob, Shit my dad says, How to be a gentleman... all canned. I won't even start on Modern Family.
- "Matthew Perry": Mr. Sunshine, Go On...
- "big promotion push": Marry Me, Super Fun Night, The Crazy Ones, just to mention some of the most recent ones
- "concept is easy to understand and accept": too many to count there

I am not saying the show will be cancelled but I don't understand why is everyone ignoring precedence and being so positive about it. There is at least a decent chance that it fails indeed!

Spot said...

If it is a fraud, it is a special reason for CBS not to renew it. They won't want another Millers fiasco just one year after that one happened and they won't be able to afford to keep a fraud post big bang in the fall since they will need every comedy lead-in they can get.

Spot said...

Agree with all this. I would even suggest testing that show in the summer like Idol was done initially but that would create too long of a gap before it could come to regular season so probably not. They just need to make sure they have replacements ready to go if it fails.

Spot said...

Yeah, 8 PM is much easier hour. Sorry, I misunderstood.

But still it seems like a bad plan to me. Two comedy blocks not only are already on Thursday (so minimizing moves), but are also nice counterprogamming to crazy amount of dramas airing on Thursday- Look, from February it will be: ABC 3, NBC 3, Fox 1, CW 2.

Spot said...

Keeping their biggest drama hit in years away from the initial fall schedule is a worse plan for me than keeping TBBT off the initial fall schedule. And like Silvio pointed out, the comedies are a better counter programming option on Thursdays than on Monday when there is a lot of crossed viewing with the voice.

I like your plan of using Scorpion to launch a new drama but I would rather do it on Mondays: Scorpion + New Drama + LA. Possibly with double TBBT the first week instead of Scorpion. The problem is what to do with the third comedy block. I would argue there is no need for it to exist but I know everyone disagrees and I know CBS will have it anyway, so it's a mute point.

Spot said...

By the way, are you assuming that they will put Super Girl Thursdays at 10pm in November?

Spot said...

This will probably never happen, but here's what I would do to prevent Thursday's from collapsing in the event of a permanent TBBT move:

Monday:
8:00 TBBT
8:30 New comedy / Odd Couple
9:00 Scorpion
10:00 NCIS: LA

Tuesday:
8:00 NCIS
9:00 NCIS: NO
10:00: POI

Wednesday:
8:00 CSI: Cyber / New drama
9:00 Criminal Minds
10:00 Criminal Minds Spin-off

Thursday: (after TNF)
8:00 Survivor
9:00 Mom
9:30 2BG
10:00 Elementary

I'm still debating where to put the comedies. I think Mom + 2BG might get hurt by the female-skewing ABC dramas, but I like the idea of Survivor going back to Thursdays. Criminal Minds has shown it's not really dependent on its lead-in and Survivor has shown it can compete with American Idol. Of course, Survivor will either have to or take a break during the holidays and end towards the end of Jan. or simply produce a shortened fall season. I suggest the latter. They can split up the runs with the Amazing Race/new reality concept. Again this probably will never happen, but if a TBBT move did happen, I think this is a viable schedule for CBS to remain competitive.

Spot said...

I've toyed with the idea of Survivor moving to Thursdays myself. The problem is that the schedules just wouldn't work. There is no way the show could make a season short enough to air just in the fall and while it would be okay for Undercover Boss to fill in for a while, Survivor is still way too strong to be reduced to just one cycle on the schedule. Also, I really think there is no way Elementary gets to keep a midweek slot, the show is a big ratings disaster to be placed anywhere that isn't Sundays at 10pm.

I think CBS should just premiere TBBT in late October and call it a day to be very honest.

Spot said...

There's 4 ossibilities
1. They nix it if pilot is bad.
2. Thursday 10 PM in fall.
3. Monday 9 PM in fall (Scorpion at 10)
4. God knows where in midseason.

I have no idea what option they will choose.

Spot said...

I think that number 3 could also happen with Scorpion as its lead-in at 8pm.LA is doing well, they won't move it twice in a row. And they shouldn't/won't downgrade Scorpion to 10pm so soon.

Spot said...

There will be 2 or 3 dramas, certainly not only 1.
Elementary is going to Sunday 10 PM.
POI is going to Thursday 10 PM to make room for 2nd new drama. Or to Friday 9 PM (with H50 cancelled) if CBS would want 3 new dramas.

Moving Survivor is fixing what's not broken. So, no way.

I don't see them cancelling still very profitable Mike & Molly. Only reason you have it cancelled, is because otherwise you're not able to construct schedule with only 2 comedy blocks. Well, I'm sure there will be 3 comedy blocks.
Why would them swap 2 Broke Girls and The Odd Couple? That's moving for sake of move, and CBS would only lose money on promotion of moves. To no effect, except maybe negative one.

Spot said...

I agree that Elementary would have a VERY rough ride at Thu 10pm, but I think CBS might have a rougher ride if they tried something new in that hour.


In regards to a shortened Survivor season, CBS could eek out 8 episodes on Thursday between TNF and Christmas. If they go back to the old Sunday finale tradition, that gets them to 10, including a reunion special. Another option would be to air it twice a week on both Wednesdays and Thursdays. That would prevent more drama repeats on Wednesdays come midseason. Again, this is just brainstorming, probably won't happen.

Spot said...

Yeah I completely forgot about M&M, much like CBS usually does. I could definitely see 2BG staying on Mondays and having a Mom + M&M block on Thursday. This does eliminate the possibility of launching a new comedy in the fall, but they could also hold M&M for midseason and premiere something after Mom. However, considering how disastrous CBS comedy development has been, sticking with veterans might be the best option.


Totally agree about Elementary too. They might do better with POI here. Didn't really think about that option. I'm also not saying that a Survivor move would fix anything, but I think it might work in preventing a huge collapse on Thursday.

Spot said...

Yes, but you'll remember I'm a big opponent of dramas at 8 PM.
And CBS nearly perfected it, their nights are anchored by:
comedy / drama / reality / comedy / reality / news magazine

They've managed to have dramas in 13 out of 19 primetime hours, yet only 1 of 6 nights to start with drama. Brilliant.
There's reason they're scheduling so, and while it's not impossible they'll have more 8 PM dramas in the future, I think they won't do it unless there is a really big reason for it.

Spot said...

That is true. I still cant find anything wrong with the idea of dramas at 8 but i can at least appreciate your argument. And in any case this could not happen unless cbs cut down to 2 comedy hours and while i think that option should at least be on the table, cbs wont do it (and i know you agree with them on it)

Spot said...

Networks avoid scheduling comedies at 10 PM because it gives viewers option to tune out at 10:30 PM. While if it's a drama at 10 PM, many viewers are inclined to watch TV half an hour more, just to see whodunnit or whatever. Because they already invested 30 minutes, so why not?

It helps a lot to channels like Comedy Central, Adult Swim or FX/FXX. They schedule their comedies in 10 PM hour, and with success, because there's a lot of audience not interested in dramas on big 3, or local news at Fox / CW affiliates.

I'm puzzled why broadcasters don't try to win that audience with some dramedies at 10 PM, perhaps something in the vein of Monk, or Psych. I certainly hope NBC will schedule Neil Patrick Harris variety show at 10 PM.

Spot said...

I realize that's the reason but I still think some networks could benefit from at least trying, especially when it's raunchier/ more adult oriented comedies. A situation in which it could also make sense is when they have 1 comedy with no obvious pair that ends up being the anchor rerun. One could argue that FOB could have been scheduled after Blackish on Wednesdays for instance and be on a better situation than the one it is getting on Tuesday. But I think there was no more obvious missed opportunity like the year ABC scheduled the hangout comedies on Tuesday. Those comedies should have always been scheduled on Wednesday after Suburgatory. It should have always been The Middle-The Neighbors-Modern Family-Suburgatory-Happy Endings-Apartment 23, with Tuesday being DWTS Results-Nashville-Private Practice in what were natural flows for all involved and not the horrible mess that everything ended up being. But well, this is me ranting.


I agree about NPH at 10, though I think NBC might not be able to resist putting it Thursdays at 8pm. I certainly don't know what should go to that slot. By placing The Blacklist at 9pm and not 8pm, they are risking creating a GA situation that ABC had to endure for almost 8 years. I am not saying it should have put at 8pm, just saying that it will be a very tough slot to crack. Comedy doesn't work because of big bang, drama is very hard (because is at 8 as you say and because greys is formidable competition still) and fox will probably have reality there if they have brains.

Spot said...

Actually, ABC could put Black-ish at 10 PM in February. That is, if they're very worried Empire hurting it. That rather unorthodox solution is viable if Fresh off the Boat premieres solid - then it can stay at 9:30 PM, with Black-ish bumped to 10 PM where it actually would have indirect Empire lead-in.
Middle / Goldbergs / Modern Family / FotB / Black-ish / MF (or Blacki-ish) encore
Nashville - Tuesday 10 PM
Forever - Tuesday 8 PM

I'm just saying they might do it, I wouldn't do it because:
1. Black-ish would have much weaker ABC comedy for lead-in.
2. People maybe doesn't want to watch broadcast comedy at 10 PM. Surely they're not used to it.
3. Those schedule changes would be effective Feb 11, so promotion would be adequate only if it starts right now - but ABC can't promote those moves because all depends on ratings of FotB premiere (Feb 4).
4. Last minute, not well promoted timeslot change would hurt Nashville somewhat. And Forever probably too, but it's low rated anyway and nobody cares.
5. It's questionable if any kind of reshuffle makes sense for relatively short period Black-ish will face Empire. It's at most 8 more episodes, as next 2 weeks ABC Wednesday comedies are in repeats,and then Black-ish is preempted for FotB.

But I'm not strongly against it, just because it would be funny to observe such an experiment.

Spot said...

I am not sure MM will get a fall placement though. Assuming 6 comedies on the fall schedule:
- if odd couple is renewed, they will have TBBT, 2BG, Mom and TOC on the schedule. That means that premiering MM in the fall leaves them with only one new comedy on the fall schedule. Possible but somehow unlikely I think. They probably just use TBBT to launch 2 new comedies (Monday, Thursday) instead.
- If odd couple is canned, then they will only have TBBT, 2BG and Mom. Not premiering MM implies the premiere of 3 new comedies which is hard and very dependent on development. However, going with 2+MM is much riskier I think because if any one of those two is an instant flop (McCarthys, We Are Men, Partners, How to Be a Gentleman, etc. etc) they have no backups and will have to air TBBT reruns the entire year.

Spot said...

Interesting idea. I've seen the crazy notions that ABC should quickly swap Goldberg and Blackish which I disagree (especially because Empire will probably go to 8 next fall anyway). I wouldn't do it for the reasons you've mentioned. A lot of moves involved and there are too few episodes in direct crash with it anyway. Also, I expect Empire to start coming back to earth. It can even be a mega hit but I can't imagine it sticking to these levels. It might actually do so for the next two weeks since ABC is in repeats but it should get to next Black-ish confrontation TRULY weaker than it is now I think.

Spot said...

That's actually a fairly reasonable explanation, thank you for it! The other side of the coin though is that it truly make you believe the 8pm comedies have it much rougher than the 8h30 ones. And you can also argue that they should place dramas at 8 and not comedies exactly because by placing dramas they force people to start watching earlier whereas by placing comedies they are giving them a free pass to join just at 8h30. Probably depends on the strenght of the comedies and dramas involved though.

But thanks for that perspective!

Spot said...

Yeah regardless of how they're gonna schedule their line-up next year, CBS needs The Odd Couple to succeed. If the show flops, CBS is left with 2 hours of comedy when they need 3. I'm all for holding M&M and premiering 3 new comedies. But in the event that all 3 fail, M&M isn't gonna be the usual problem solver. CBS will still need to plug in an hour of TBBT repeats/midseason launches. And even if The Odd Couple is renewed and CBS goes the route of launching 2 new comedies, they very well may have a half-hour problem slot, even after M&M is plugged in to save one of slots. That's why I think condensing down to 2 hours of comedy might be a good option for the network.

Spot said...

I've argued for the comedy reduction before but I don't think CBS will go for it. And Silvio has a point in claiming that Mondays at 8 is a decent hour for comedy counter programming. I don't love the idea of the comedies having to face the voice since they are clearly hurt by it (as winter spikes systematically show) but it's still an okay slot for them. I think a procedural could coexist with Gotham, but well.

Spot said...

You are talking about people already sitting in front TV at 8 PM.
But some people come home between 8 PM and 9 PM because they commute long and/or don't go home straight after work/school (do shopping or errands, maybe early dinner).
Some people are at home at 8 PM, but are not TV fanatics like us with TV being on all the time.
Some people watch local news, then go to other room (cook and/or eat dinner, take a nap, read a book...), and then return to living room after 8 PM.

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