Friday, January 9, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/6/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • The two-hour premiere of Marvel's Agent Carter scored a middling 2.0 rating at 8:00 and a 1.8 at 9:00. This was an improvement on what ABC usually gets out of Agents of SHIELD, but not a particularly significant one, and it will need to hold up pretty well to be a SHIELD-sized player for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, the fact that this couldn't even beat Sunday's Galavant premiere would seem to suggest that SHIELD has created a certain limitation on what the Marvel brand can do on TV. And the change in lead-in didn't do anything for Forever (1.1).
  • Like on Monday, CBS and Fox thrived against lessened competition from NBC. NCIS (2.8) and NCIS: New Orleans (2.5) each hit their highest ratings since the opening week of the season, while Person of Interest (1.7) was also on the high end. Fox's MasterChef Junior (1.8) tied its premiere from the late fall, while New Girl (1.5) was also a bit above average, but The Mindy Project (1.0) was very weak.
  •  As for NBC, Marry Me (0.8) completely tanked in its first episode without The Voice support, only tying its lead-in from a Parks and Recreation repeat (0.8), and About a Boy joined them at a new low 0.8. Given those ratings, it's something of a miracle that Chicago Fire (1.7) managed to pull into a tie for first at 10/9c.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agent Carter 1.9 35% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +217% +6% 1.9
Forever 1.1 28% +0%+0.0+0.2 7/12 n/a +47% +29% 1.2
ABC:+151%+10%
NCIS 2.8 18% +17%+0.4n/a 2/11 -7% +143% -7% 2.8
NCIS: New Orleans 2.5 18% +32%+0.6+0.4 1/11 n/a +117% +4% 2.0
Person of Interest 1.7 21% +31%+0.4+0.6 3/11 -15% +36% -13% 1.6
CBS:+97%-5%
Parks and Recreation (R) 0.8 40% +33% -50% 0.9
Marry Me 0.8 49% -33%-0.4-1.5 9/9 n/a +0% -53% 1.0
About a Boy 0.8 38% -11%-0.1-0.4 9/9 n/a -11% -56% 1.0
Chicago Fire 1.7 32% +0%+0.0-0.3 8/11 -15% +89% -13% 1.9
NBC:+40%-38%
MasterChef Junior 1.8 43% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +157% +20% 1.9
New Girl 1.5 60% +0%+0.0+0.2 3/12 -6% +150% -6% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.0 57% -9%-0.1+0.0 10/12 -23% +100% -23% 1.0
Fox:+144%+3%
The Flash (R) 0.5 48% -17% +67% 0.6
Supernatural (R) 0.4 49% +0% +14% 0.4
CW:-10%+38%
Big5:+89%-6%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

67 comments:

Spot said...

On one hand, Agent Carter's ratings are disappointing.


But taken from the perspective of it being a mid-season network drama with no lead-in rather than being a big hyped-up Marvel show then 1.9 in A18-49 isn't bad at all.

Spot said...

Agent Carter had a surprising amount of out of demo interest. 35% in the demo. Shield's oldest skewing was 34%, but that had Dancing final pretune and NCIS in repeats!

Spot said...

Probably 1940 throwback for some people born in that time? or close to it?
Who knows!

Spot said...

Well, it's a period piece, which tend to skew older. Period dramas don't have a great track record on US broadcast television in recent years (The Assets, Pan-Am, The Playboy Club, The Carrie Diaries), although American Dreams made it to three seasons). That being said, period sitcoms seem to do okay (The Wonder Years, That 70s Show, The Goldbergs).

Spot said...

The MVP of the night is definitely Chicago Fire. I'm actually surprised I haven't read reports about possibly creating a second spin-off called Chicago Medical (ChiMed). Lo the ratings benefit that would come from all three Chi shows plus SVU in a mega crossover event.
I'd guess Chicago PD's barely-respectable numbers probably quashed the idea of NBC expanding the "franchise" any further.


I think the reason that Chicago Fire is such a big hit is because fireman is a somewhat fresh twist on the stale procedural format, which is why they'll get diminishing returns when moving into stale, more traditional premises like cops or doctors.

Spot said...

So, with 3 more NBC comedy failures this season, it's 0-for-19 now? I hope I didn't miss any:
A18-49+ / NBC broad comedy
----------------------------------
100; TBD - About a Boy
90 Go On
80 Growing Up Fisher
79; 59 Whitney
79; 59 Up All Night
74 The New Normal
64 Guys With Kids
63 Are You There, Chelsea?
62 The Michael J. Fox Show
58 Animal Practice
57 Free Agents
54 Sean Saves The World
53 1600 Penn
50 Welcome to the Family
35 Bent
33 Best Friends Forever

Spot said...

I know my Grandmother (78 years old), wanted to see it despite never ever having seen a Marvel film or movie. She thought she iust worked for the CIA or FBI or something. Not surprised it had some out of demo interest. I think its actually good as its audience is less likely to be fickle. Shield had a 48% skew and a lot of M18-34 bailing fast

Spot said...

With the exception of the Carrie Diaries, I can't think of a period drama that got renewed for a season 2. And I think Goldbergs was the last sitcom since That '70s Show in 1999 to be renewed for season 2. That's a 15 year gap!

Spot said...

*cough* Reign *cough*

Spot said...

Everybody Hates Chris ?

Spot said...

I should just exempt the CW!

Spot said...

NBC's first comedy to get a third season since Community could be a former summer burnoff, that's sad. Even worse, it'll be a third season show with an episode count similar to a freshman. But there is still time to finish 0-22 considering Undateable, One Big Happy and Mr. Robinson, not to mention Mission Control and Next Caller cancelations before the premiere, Kimmy Schimidt move to Netflix and the Cosby fiasco.


Great numbers, it's even more laughable to know that Guys With Kids is NBC's strongest "broad" comedy at 64 since all comedies above 70 got either The Voice's lead-in or shared The Office's lead-in in 2011-12.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over.

The show formerly known as Death Star this season premieres earlier in fear of TGIT. Interesting.

Anyway, let's say Idol drops just 20% to 4.0. Then I can see 60% retention for somehow compatible Empire, which gives me 2.4 for premiere. However, as Idol stumbles into high 1s after auditions, and Hollywood round, Empire to stumble into low 1s... but around 1.5 season average to be still good enough for renewal on a mess of a network Fox is nowadays.

As usually, I'm (probably overly) optimistic about premiere, and (probably overly) pessimistic about rest of the season.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

ChiPD is only doing a couple ticks worse than ChiFi did in season 1, which means it's actually doing a touch better in Plus-terms. And with The Blacklist moving to an earlier hour, PD becomes NBC's second-strongest 10:00 show.


While diminishing returns happen from too many spin-offs, if they are owned by the sister studio the network will more often than not go take another dip in that well for the potential back-end money (see CSI: Cyber).

Spot said...

I think the failure of Law & Order: Los Angeles put the kibosh on expanding that franchise to other cities. CSI: Chicago could have been a possibility last decade, but NY won out instead.

Spot said...

I'm 0 for 2 this week.

Over?

Spot said...

FOX. Under.

Spot said...

I'm pessimistic about FOX's current situation, my prediction is a 3.3 for Idol (down 30%) and a 60% retention, so under.


Carter's numbers underwhelmed me and I'm not sure the current trend is favorable to musicals, Nashville is just an average performer and Glee is the chariot that turned into a pumpkin.

Spot said...

You're probably right, but the possibilities of crossovers would be endless if NBC had a Law and Order series set in Chicago.

Spot said...

My gut was saying high 1s rather than low 2s coming into this. Under

Spot said...

Soaps in general are hit or miss as far as ratings, and EMPIRE seems to be the soapiest new drama of this season.

Anyway I expect a good premier, and a quick drop-off. Empire may still be renewed if it's end of season average is a 1.4 (which of course will include a front-loaded inflated premier rating) since that would put it slightly above Fox's scripted average for the season.

All in all: OVER for the premier.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Fox has had some positive momentum this week so far (Gotham, MasterChef Junior). But how much of that is wrapped in The Voice being gone and how much is it in the network turning around on its own merits? Empire's debut will probably speak to that.
Empire's problem is the People's Choice Awards but not for the reason you think. SVU should spike with an above average episode since Criminal Minds is off the sked. So if the PCA still averages roughly what Criminal Minds does, if SVU does better business, and if ModFam/black-ish hold steady/pick up a tick, there's extra competition Empire has to fight against.

Under. Though I hope I'm wrong for Fox's sake.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

"The show formerly known as Death Star this season premieres earlier in fear of TGIT. Interesting."


What do you mean?

Spot said...

Somehow related: Do you expect a double whammy for Laura today, too? It gets weak but crosssoverish Mentalist into timeslot, plus initially Idol will be much stronger competition than Hell's Kitchen ever was.
I'd say yes, but so far Laura was much more resilient than I expected.

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Idol usually premiered in late January. But this year ABC Thursday lineup returns from hiatus January 29. They moved premiere earlier to avoid TGIT impact on show's first phase, which would be auditions that are still much watched.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

The Mentalist has a similar old skew as Laura, but it's stronger in the male demographic than Laura is. Idol skews much younger than Laura so it might not affect the show much.

If Laura's steady older female demo shows up (W25-54) as they have all season then I expect a 1.2 for Laura.

Spot said...

About a Boy order is cut to 20 episodes. When The Voice returns Feb 24th, there still will be 6 episodes unaired, plus 4 of Marry Me.
I guess NBC will burn off those at Friday 8 PM. Constantine series finale should be Friday 13th in February, and if they stick with original plan of Hannibal premiering in late spring, it fits fine. Hannibal would premiere at 3/27/2015 (or soon after) with Dateline moving back to 8 PM.

Unless they surprise us with this wild plan:
Aquarius Fri 10 PM in March.
Hannibal in summer.
About a Boy / Marry Me burn off on Sundays in March.

I doubt it, simply because they didn't announce Aquarius premiere with the rest of their schedule, and that press reelase included even April premieres of A.D. and Odyssey. Something is fisgi with that

Spot said...

This show is airing with limited commercial interruption. Most new shows have little commercials at the beginning and tons at the end. Anyways, less commercial breaks mean opportunities for people to bail. Idol had a big jump for the finale, and will probably have a 3.0 at least tonight. I think Empire can do 80% retention, especially with no Criminal Minds adding extra drama competition.
.
Optimism is unphased by Carter. OVER

Spot said...

ABC quietly replaced the scheduled Forever repeat today with a repeat of the premiere of Galavant. I consider that a vote of confidence.

Spot said...

I'm surprised NBC didn't say anything about fridays with Constantine's order running out.


There are three tuesdays between Parks finale and Undateable premiere, could they air those two after The Voice just like they aired Go On and The New Normal and then move them to be burned off?

Spot said...

I went through Spot's questions and read the comments on TGIT's debut and watched people give really low ratings on HTGAWM/TGIT as a whole and then it debuted at really high.

Spot said...

The three from this season are missing but other than that it seems to be all there. You could add Save Me though (since Undateable was renewed, it stands to reason that similarly treated Save Me also had a chance after all).


But that's some crazy list!

Spot said...

Last night they've released official description and promotional pictures. They did the same for Secrets and Lies and American Crime a couple of days before announcing their slots, so maybe we'll get lucky and have an announcement this week.

Spot said...

Probably trying to make Galavant survive the brutal competition coming?

Spot said...

I don't see how that's possible. It only managed a 1.5 when it aired out of DWTS and that was its PREMIERE! Half a year later, people who wanted to check it out probably have already done so, so for it to suddenly go all the way back to the premiere number would be a big shock. I really think it would do Castle repeat numbers since that's basically what it's doing on Tuesdays anyway

I agree with you that ABC needs more procedurals (one or two) since it cannot possibly have bridges for all its shows in the winter, but Forever is simply not working, I don' see how they can force it anymore. They are repeating it, keeping it in the same timeslot and giving it decent lead-ins. The competition is very respectable, but there is no Murder type of player to blame there. It's just not hitting..

Spot said...

Before I read the line, I was thinking 2.1, so that line scares me a little. I'll stick with my guns and say UNDER by a hair, even though I wouldn't be surprised by a 2.2 or 2.3.

Doesn't the CW have a music producer drama in development? Curious to see if the musical drama audience is still there.

Spot said...

It's a good idea. And having it air out of the comedies is a natural thing anyway.

Spot said...

Yes, they DID not say Hannibal, nor Aquarius would premiere after Constantine ends. Then I'm indirectly assuming it will be comedies burn off. Only other possibility is The Voice repeats, I think.

I think there's only two Tuesdays between Parks finale and Undateable premiere. In any case, I doubt they would waste it on those losers, I'm pretty sure that's reserved for 2-hours The Voice editions.

NBC announced Parks will be in originals on 1/20/2015, followed by 2 hours of State of The Union coverage.

Spot said...

Spot tends to be incredibly good at setting up the lines, so they are usually a pretty good indicator of the show's success or lack of thereof. Most of us expected TGIT to be successful I believe but the level of success wasn't anticipated.

Spot said...

Yes, I am pretty sure those two hours will be voice blind auditions. I hope NBC is wise to save enough Chicago Fire originals to air on those nights by the way!

Spot said...

When I used "really low" I meant the numbers that people predicted opposed to the actual numbers.

Spot said...

Over, 2.7

Spot said...

Monday morning quarterback much?

Spot said...

Sorry?

Spot said...

Laura needs to hope that the combination of a reverse halo effect from SVU and higher January HUT levels gets the show back into the mid-1's. Tying its season low from the one-off December episode would be bad even after accounting for the competition since Idol's staying here for the rest of the season. A weaker Idol would still be way ahead of what Hell's Kitchen did.

Now if it was a Question between The Mentalist and The Mysteries of Laura, I slightly favor The Mentalist in a spread even if I truly expect a Push. CBS, like Fox, has been on the upswing this week with The Voice gone, but the Eye network typically starts its gain on the networks this month anyway. And CBS has more wins this week than NBC.

Spot said...

I am really at a loss here. Can I really go over on a FOX line after the year they've had? I am tempted to say yes and I probably would on a normal night but I imagine that FOX's base audience will tune in a lot from Idol to PCA and that this one will kind of get lost in the shuttle. I think it breaks a 2.0 and is a victory for FOX but I am saying not to a 2.2.

Under

Spot said...

Hip-Hop Drama centering on a top-flight back-up dancer who dreams of becoming a choreographer ... loosely inspired by the life of actor-dancer Kenny Wormald ... described as “Entourage meets 30 Feet From Stardom”.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I don't think Empire will last beyond one season, but I imagine a halfway decent debut. 2.3 OVER.

Spot said...

If CBS keeps up this level of dominance throughout the Winter and is able to achieve some success in the Spring (for instance Cyber improving on Stalker, which seems doable), then ABC might not get the win after all, especially as I am expecting some softness coming from American Crime and Secrets and Lies and since they will still have dead hours on Tuesday most likely. In addition, not only are CBS repeats extremely higher than most repeats on other networks but they've even bothered to air some decent rated originals in a repeats filled period - let's just say the mentalist, undercover boss and mike and molly are much better for CBS's average than The Taste and Murder repeats.

The alphabet is not out of the game yet but it needs a very strong TGIT to get there I think and it probably needs one successful midseason drama. It's also possible that NBC takes it but it really needs a very successful spring. Sundays until April will bring down their average a lot though, as will State of Affairs, About a Boy and Marry Me during the Winter. I like that it's such a tight race but I might tend to slightly favor CBS right now.

Spot said...

NBC is a lock for #1 because of the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl excluded it will depend on the return of the Voice and obviously the strength of CBS and ABC this mid-season.

Spot said...

Under. But I'm prepared to be pleasently surprised.

Spot said...

I predicted around 1.8. But keep in mind I expect Idol to be 3.3, so bear with me. But yeah, I'll still go under.

Spot said...

Under. I refuse to go over on a FOX line this season.

It'll prob hit 2.1, out of a 3.5ish Idol. I feel like Idol will start down very far this year, but slightly stabilize over the course of the season. That should help Empire's chances of renewal.

Spot said...

Sorry, I should have clarified. I always mean in my averages terms, which excludes all sports, award shows, Saturdays and 7pm Sundays. On the official seasonal averages NBC is a lock, yes.

Spot said...

I would like to see your averages with everything excluded. That will most certainly be a tighter race amongst the nets.

Spot said...

Over, with a respectable 2.4

Spot said...

~ Under ~, just because I was thinking about going Over, and I can't even remember the last time I got one Question right. lol

Spot said...

Aquarius could be moved to the summer and air Tuesdays at 10:00 following America's Got Talent. Makes some sense as The Night Shift got called up to the regular season

Spot said...

ABC is going with Shark Tank next Tuesday 8 PM into Carter after all:
http://www.abcmedianet.com/web/dnr/dispDNR.aspx?id=pr72030

I think it's original episode. I don't see that episode 607 aired before, but I might be wrong.

Spot said...

GODDAMNIT!!!! I should've gone w/ my "ABC blew the marketing" theory on this one. First impressions are key after all.

It's disappointing, too. I thought Agent Carter was good.

I think Forever is just incompatible w/ whatever MCU on TV thing is showing. And it's certainly not interesting in its own right.

Another death knell for the NBC comedy brand.

Solid results for CBS absent The Voice. Wouldn't be surprised to see a further head of steam build in the coming weeks.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.