Thursday, January 22, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/20/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The finals changed the outlook somewhat meaningfully for the CW; The Flash (1.4) managed to avoid a new low while Supernatural (0.9) adjusted down to a pretty normal number despite no entertainment competition. Elsewhere, the 8:00 Parks and Recreation (1.4) adjusted down and MasterChef Junior (1.8) was up to tie its series high.
    • The SotU numbers are not counted in finals because there were no ads, though for viewing/competition purposes (in the True formula) I use the preliminary numbers.
  • With the big four networks taking a break in the last two hours for State of the Union coverage, most of the entertainment excitement came in the 8/7c hour. MasterChef Junior (1.7) and Parks and Recreation (1.5/1.4) were both very close to even week-to-week, perhaps benefiting a bit from less competition on CBS (an NCIS repeat (1.4)) and ABC (an Agent Carter repeat (0.8)).
  • The CW was back in business on Tuesday in somewhat disappointing fashion as The Flash (1.3) is preliminarily on track for a new series low. Supernatural (1.0) fared better compared to its usual ratings against the big four simulcast in the 9/8c hour.
  • The SotU coverage mostly won't be counted in finals, but the unreliable prelims said NBC won with a 1.4 -> 1.5 -> 1.4 breakdown. CBS had 1.2 -> 1.4 -> 1.2, ABC 1.0 -> 1.2 -> 1.1, Fox 1.0 -> 0.9 -> 1.1.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Agent Carter (R) 0.8 33% -56% -6% 0.9
ABC State of the Union
Black-ish (R) 0.7 27% -30% +0% 0.9
ABC:-35%+2%
NCIS (R) 1.4 15% -49% -24% 1.4
CBS State of the Union
Mike and Molly (R) 1.3 24% -13% +18% 1.4
CBS:-40%-12%
Parks and Recreation 1.4 47% -7%-0.1n/a 3/3 +17% -7% -22% 1.4
Parks and Recreation 1.4 54% +0%+0.0n/a 3/4 +17% -7% -33% 1.5
NBC State of the Union
NBC State of the Union Analysis 0.9 27% n/a -40% -50% 1.1
NBC:+8%-28%
MasterChef Junior 1.8 41% +6%+0.1n/a 1/3 n/a +6% +6% 1.8
Fox State of the Union
Fox:-5%-18%
The Flash 1.4 46% -7%-0.1n/a 6/10 n/a +211% +33% 1.4
Supernatural 0.9 47% -10%-0.1-0.1 5/10 -18% +157% -18% 0.7
CW:+188%+7%
Big5:-10%-13%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

105 comments:

Spot said...

I don't like this game anymore. It makes me being mean towards shows that aren't doing according to my renew/cancel guess. And most of those shows I don't watch, nor I have opinion about those. And I really don't care if they will be renewed or cancelled, I'm OK with either way. Yet there's bitterness against those shows in my posts, as they "cost me losing points in the game". Surely some others feel like me, but they're able to restrain themselves from writing angry rants like mine are. Or, at least, unlike me, they don't have so much free time to write dumb comments about show they don't even watch.

Spot said...

Hope this doesn't count as too political a comment, but trying anyway...

She seemed really uncomfortable on camera to me. I was getting serious second-hand awkwardness watching her. Surely there must have been an available Republican who's made the rounds on the Sunday morning talk shows and therefore knows how to handle it.

Spot said...

What if ABC had aired a Cristela repeat?


They would be flooding complaints that ABC is pro-immigration.

Spot said...

Does affiliates which have local news program air it at all? Or they switch to their local analysys as soon as address finishes?

Spot said...

Fox ending the simulcast with Fox News Channel at 10:30 makes sense since most of them have local news programs. And NBC went from 9:00 to 11:00 with it because that's where I landed after flipping from MSNBC. ABC and CBS affiliates, though, could exercise the option of going local or sticking with their network's feed. They're just obligated to provide something, though, since they weren't going whole-hog with SOTU like NBC.

Spot said...

I live in Iowa, so I saw a billion Joni Ernst ads (it was our first open Senate seat in 30 years), and her speech was literally all of her campaign ads pushed together in one speech. So why it was awkward was it was just a bunch of phrases she had memorized put together. The reason she was picked was because she was a woman. Just like why last year they had an hispanic. Anything but an older white male.

Spot said...

Cancel (confident)


Confident about this happening to every show on TV.

Spot said...

Honestly, I couldn't move beyond the image of a school bus filled with children wearing brown bags on their feet. That, and the forced beauty queen smile every 5 seconds while she was describing America's descent into hell almost made me forget the Marco Rubio's bizarre H2O Republican rebuttal. The Bachelor, Prince Farming, is part of a fabricated "reality" show. Ms. Ernst is unfortunately part of our political reality, fabrications and all. Iowa, Joni Ernst notwithstanding, is a very nice place. I am a born and bred Midwesterner...and one who has never set foot on a farm. Apologies to all for jumping off ratings topic and touching the third rail of politics but I felt the need to address Patrick's state of shame.

Spot said...

1.3 isn't fine because it came in high PUT January, with two of big networks in repeats at 8 PM, and for winter premiere which is for most of the shows the most watched episode during 2nd part of the season.

The Flash is the biggest bit in 9 years of CW history, and it will air at least 5 years. So it's goal isn't just to be renewed (like for Jane the Virgin or Reign is), the goal for Flash is to last 10 years.

.

Spot said...

I agree. Though the bigger problem is that any rebuttal to the SOTU address is just one person and a camera. No audience to react/play with, no potential cutaways to make. It's a live soliloquy so it's near impossible to stick the landing.


But to bring it back to ratings: I would love to see 15 minute breakdowns in the ratings during the speech and rebuttal to see if there's any kind of erosion or growth, but since it's going to be counted as sustaining programming only Nielsen will know.

Spot said...

It is, unless they can come up with more shows that can get those numbers, it's still the top show of the network. This is the same network that just renewed all their Fall shows this season after all.

Spot said...

Will NBC have any sitcoms in fall schedule? Yes, of course, there was never any doubt about it. They're not a cable network, they cannot just abandon comedies.


Will they cancel all of their this season's comedies? Normally answer would be: No, it would be too embarassing. But this year they might, because NBC has perfect scapegoat in Tal Rabinowitz, former head of comedy development they let go back in May. Let's first see how Undateable and One Big Happy will do in March.

Over last 10 days or so they ordered 6 comedy pilots, plus Telenovela straight to series. And I think they ordered Jerrod Carmichael's pilot already before. That's 8, and they'll order few more, although nowhere near insane amount of 18 comedy pilots they ordered last time around.

As for the number of blocks, I like very much what one of commenters here mentioned the other day:
Fall: only 1 comedy block + Neil Patrick Harris variety show.
Midseason: 2 comedy blocks.

All they need for that is: 1 pity renewed comedy + Telenovela + 3-4 picked rookies out of 10-12 pilots. If both 2 fall sitcoms would fail, they can just scratch 2nd midseason comedy block (and maybe order more of NPH if it's a hit), and have only 2 half-hours in midseason too.

They picked 7 comedies out of those 18 pilots from previous development cycle: 3 for fall, all dead now. Mission Control was nixed at some point, Kimmy moved to Netflix, Mr. Robinson is in the limbo, One Big Happy will air 6 episodes this spring.

Spot said...

Thank you kind sir! I'm glad some people still like Iowa

Spot said...

Not really. At the end of the day, these points are insignificant in my life outside of bragging rights in a relatively small community.

Spot said...

Just for kicks, here's what we predicted its average would be:
Omabin: 1.5
Chris J: 1.3
It Depends: 1.61
Me: 1.4
Silvio: 1.45


...we're idiots.

Spot said...

Speak for yourself, I'm not an idiot...


...I'm complete idiot, you moron!

Spot said...

Yeah, You're right. I actually had more sentences in my above comments. One was "It's just a game." Then I deleted last few sentences before posting, because in comment itself i said I'm commenting too much.

Spot said...

...yeah, still don't get it. True Night Shift is very important, and i understand it needs promos, but that doesn't mean the three can't coexist in promotion time. Parks and Rec's finale will be on the 25th anyway, so at least the two comedies would have had an advantage with a stronger lead-in, and extra promo time. And why do they have to run through May? If they premiered on March 3rd, the schedule could have gone:
3/3-4/7: Undateable/One Big Happy
4/14-4/21: Undateable (x2)

And in those weeks after they can just do 2-hour Voices. And while I'm not sure how it can work, they did it 2 years ago when Ready to Love bombed out of the gate, and it helps giving a greater lead-in to the tail end of Chicago Fire's season, and will give potentially better ratings to their comedies, something incredibly dire.

Spot said...

But The Voice starts with Blind Auditions, those are most watched episodes. If they want best The Voice ratings, 2-hours Tuesday editions must be early, not in later performances and eliminations.

Yes, comedies are collateral damage. But perhaps now they trust their own comedies as much as we did from start. Not at all.

Spot said...

Hey, the biggest P&R fan, can you answer this:
There's 7 x 2 half-hours reserved for P&R, but it was said season has 13 episodes.
They added some kind of series recap episode? Or what?

Spot said...

Let me also add something I forgot: I barely watch a fifth of the shows on the broadcast networks anyway, or even TV in general. I just enjoy seeing ratings and the race over what gets picked up, renewed, or canceled. So I don't watch many of the shows I predict, much like you. :)

Spot said...

Maybe Patrick is right and it is an apology to Chicago Fire. Not an apology, but a way to boost it and guarantee some lead-in junction in the middle of the season after all the sub 1.0 lead-ins it had to endure.


Also, the voice doesn't really work in such a flexible way like you are suggesting. When you get into the live shows, it would be very hard to come up with 2 hour results shows and it would harm the program even more, which is something they can't afford - more than propelling new comedies, they must protect the voice. The Voice can go for 2 hours during blind auditions (typically first 3 or 4 weeks), battle rounds (next 2 weeks), knockouts/battles 2 (the next week) or playoffs (the next week, when they actually usually have a 5th hour, though not always). So NBC's choice was: do blinds two hours and premiere comedies after still very high rated battles (what they are doing) or premiere comedies after blinds + hiatus for two hour battles just after 3 or 4 episodes + new episodes after lives or premiere comedies after blinds and run straight through but then having to do voice recap/ voice new / chicago fire in may sweeps (which is what they did in the ready for love year, except it was grimm and not fire).


I am not saying this was necessarily the best option but I don't feel it was a bad one either. I doubt the comedies suffer all that much, especially because in former voice seasons, the show actually peaked in the battles and not in the blinds. They are still a very high rated portion. It's not like state of affairs, who was launched in a later portion of the live shows.

Spot said...

Don't they double up on The Voice's premiere on Tuesday?

Spot said...

The series finale is an one-hour episode.

Quoting NBC's press release:

"In the first TV event of the new year, NBC is giving its landmark comedy “Parks and Recreation” a sendoff that will maximize the show’s cultural impact. The seventh and final season of this critically-acclaimed and beloved series will begin Tuesday, Jan. 13 with back-to-back episodes (8-9 p.m. ET/PT) and continue with back-to-back episodes each week until the hourlong series finale on Tuesday, Feb. 24 following “The Voice.”

Spot said...

That's easy. They'll probably have one week be a repeat.

Spot said...

You mean, 12 x half-hour + 1 x full hour epsiode = 7 hours, but nevertheless counted as 13 episodes?

Spot said...

Yes.

Spot said...

Thanks.

Spot said...

Really, this show seemed like the only one that had a chance at being a hit out of the Fox midseason shows. It was much bigger than what I expected though.

Spot said...

Where would you schedule the NPH show? I think it's a hard one. I kind of feel that it is also perfect for Sundays midseason. Can AD be renewed or is it a limited thing? If it is limited, NPH show would probably fit in quite nicely on Sundays. If not, they will probably have it go to Tuesdays and do Voice | Comedy | NPH, though I am not 100% convinced that is the best use for the show.

I also think we (fantasy schedulers) use the NPH show too much in our schedules. Two years ago the Maya Rudolph variety show also got a lot of attention and went nowhere other than a post voice airing. I think NPH will happen, I just think it might not be as soon or in such a big way as we expect it to be.

Spot said...

AD can be renewed. Mark Burnett has said that this is "S1 of AD" which I'm assuming means he's hoping NBC picks it up for multiple seasons.

If NBC sticks with the April-June time frame for AD, then February-April would be the perfect time frame for the NPH show.

Another option would be for the variety show to air in Jan-Feb on Monday or Tuesday during the Voice's hiatus.

Spot said...

The way I see it is:

Tuesday February 24th
8pm The Voice / 10pm Parks&Rec finale
Tuesday March 3rd
8pm The Voice / 10pm Chicago Fire
Tuesday March 10th
8pm The Voice /
Tuesday March 17th

Spot said...

I agree on scheduling (though that depends if this NPH show is for fall and will actually happen), but the real question is where to put said comedies. The only non-post-Voice slot I can think of is Wednesdays at 8, but they have to self-start and face ABC's comedies and potentially Empire.


So, and I know you'll hate me for this, Tuesdays after Voice is their best bet...that is, if the show(s) in question have potential. Just for an example, Go On's biggest hook was a return of an actor whose show ended years ago, with only Jennifer Aniston having a successful and long-lasting post-Friends career, About A Boy was made by a guy who made two marginally-rated series and based off a movie/book that wasn't relevant in years, and Marry Me was from the creator of a 3-season wonder forgotten by most people and mainly focused on two C-listers. And of course Go On/New Normal and Marry Me/About A Boy were extremely incompatible, but that's another story. So, having 1-2 shows that have potential ratings-wise and flow together nicely is a must.


As for NPH, I'd probably go with Thursdays 8PM. It's probably cheap and has decent ratings potential than something like Slap to maybe help Blacklist and either Allegiance or a new drama. If it isn't picked up or is intended for midseason, then marginal reality show a la Apprentice please.

Spot said...

It's probably the same as this past season then. 2.5 weeks of blind auditions (3 Mondays + 2 Tuesdays) and then a Best of Blinds clips on Tuesday. Battles starting the next Monday.

Spot said...

Ah yes I forgot one of the Tuesdays this past fall was a recap episode that van probably be dumped in favor of the Parks finale.

Spot said...

Yeah I thought AD could be renewed but I wasn't sure, thanks.


I agree with you but not February-April. February it is no-go month to schedule on Sundays. Super Bowl, Grammys and Oscars - it's just too much! But I don't know what they should do with March Sundays.

Spot said...

This season who knows what they do with Sundays in March, but next season they will have those Dolly Parton movies they can air in March.

I'm on the fence, about what NBC does with the NPH show as well. It's either going to be the center piece of their scheduling next fall or pushed to winter filler IMO.

Spot said...

NPH is announced in late October, so of course it's for fall. It's not freaking Olympics so they need to announce 4 years in advance. On a more serious note, I'm sure because of comedy woes.

I probably would do this (so NBC will do completely opposite):
Mon: Voice / Shades of Blue
Tue: Voice / Chicago Fire / Chicago Med
Wed: reality / The Blacklist / Chicago PD
Thu: NPH variety / comedy block / SVU or renewed midseason drama
Fri: Dateline / Grimm / Warrior

If Empire stays at 9 PM, just flip Blacklist and CPD.

Spot said...

I think it's actually the opposite: the way I see it it is either in a perennial slot in the fall (a 10pm slot for one hour) or it is a center piece of a winter/ spring schedule, maybe for 2 hours.

What are those Dolly Parton movies? I think I've missed it, it's the first time I am hearing about them.

Spot said...

At the TCAs, NBC said that they are partnering with Dolly Parton with developing family TV movies.

Spot said...

I like the idea of a comedy block on Thursdays at 9:00 since CBS will either have their weakest anchor in that hour or go with another newbie once TNF ends, and ABC will remain with TGIT. But NBC is so invested in The Blacklist to Thursdays that I don't know how they can audible out of it for 2015-2016. If it holds its own, then why disrupt a show that's got a foothold on a difficult night? If it doesn't, then can it really do better against Modern Family/black-ish, Criminal Minds, and a post-Empire newbie? I don't know if NBC can say "We fucked up" yet again on Thursdays in general. But it is possible.


I agree more with the idea of putting a procedural after The Voice on Tuesdays. Trying to launch/boost sitcoms out of reality shows hasn't been successful on multiple nets over multiple seasons (examples include but are not limited to Marry Me, About a Boy, Go On, Samantha Who?, I Hate My Teenage Daughter, Til Death, Surviving Suburbia, Romantically Challenged).

Spot said...

Eh, it's okay. My issue is mainly the multiple moves. With 4+ new shows, as well as 3+ day or time moves, that's a heckuva lot to promote. But I consider myself a rather conservative scheduler. And I don't get self-starting comedies on Thursday, unless they're really, really good shows ratings-wise, but I'm not crazy on post-Voice comedies anyway, so it could be way worse.

Spot said...

This season of AD is only going as far as the book of Acts. I would assume each following season will only highlight one or 2 books in the New Testament.

Spot said...

What about Dracula? :3

Spot said...

This is just early draft, of top of my head.
Might be some problems, but I don't think it's too many moves.
Chicago Fire moves just 1 hour, and returns where it belongs, paired with Voice.
The Blacklist move would be just admitting what terrible mistake they mavr by moving it to Thursday.
SVU is near end, so nobody cares if it's moved around.

Spot said...

Damn, I'm bringing up politics and religion in the same day. Besides Acts and The Gospels, most of the New Testament is letters... and Revelation. I'm not sure that they can run multiple seasons from the likes of John 2 and 3, which are about 3 pages put together. But go for it Mr. Burnet. I don't think anyone expected him to squeeze 30+ seasons of Survivor

Spot said...

I honestly didn't know Dracula was limited series.

Spot said...

As desperate as NBC is for a hit I wouldn't be surprised to see Apocalypse on the fall schedule just like Dracula was.

Dracula was ordered at he American time 2 years ago as Apocalypse is being ordered this season, with a similar production model and filming schedule.

Spot said...

The Flash just hit a preliminary season low and in today's final ratings,
Gotham tied its series low while Sleepy Hollow achieved a new series
low this week....and it's only January. It's amazing how quickly the
ratings fortunes of first season breakout hit, Sleepy Hollow in
particular, have fallen in one season. The fantasy genre shows
continue to struggle particularly hard in their sophomore season on
every network not named The CW, if they are lucky enough to see a second
season at all (Constantine). I'm not so sure The CW is immune to big sophomore slumps, either. I think a show like NBC's Grimm might have just debuted at the right time to be saved by a more traditional syndication deal--that, and the lower ratings expectations of a Friday slot saved Grimm from the cancellation grim reaper. The DVR, VOD and streaming options are no friend to the live ratings of any scripted network programming, including the niche fantasy genre. The way I see it, the only way the big four networks will be able to support these expensive shows beyond a sophomore season as their ratings trend toward the middle and low 1's will be through lucrative streaming deals established with Amazon. Netflix and to a lesser extent, the multi-network jointly owned, Hulu. Marvel Studios is shrewd to be making the move into original comic book series exclusively for a streaming service like Netflix. Amazon and its deep pockets probably won't be far behind in striking similar deals beyond their already impressive and growing original content series. In a grand turn of events, it's probably just a matter of when and not if the original content made exclusively for streaming services like Netflix and Amazon is purchased by the networks to be rebroadcast. And who knows, a media behemoth swimming in cash like Disney might make an overture to buy Netflix or the streaming video portion of Amazon. Big changes are in the wind for broadcast television. Where this leaves Hulu, which is jointly owned by ABC, NBC and FOX is anyone's guess. It's an exciting time and also a bit frustrating for television fans to be witnessing all this churn and uncertainty.taking place in television. It's either evolve or eventually die..

Spot said...

Hi. And thanks.

Spot said...

Well, I've always been of the belief that maybe not now, but in a few years, the Internet will become the new TV. As in, TV goes the way of radio when the picture box became more mainstream. In fact, it's already happening. The fact that Netflix and Amazon are not only getting critical acclaim at awards ceremonies, are making pushes in comedy, drama, and kids shows, as well as having hundreds upon hundreds of shows available. True, contracts won't have shows last forever on their networks, but their original content and deals with other companies (Marvel, Dreamworks) show that streaming is coming to take over, with 50 million subscribers on Netflix alone.

Spot said...

renew (confident) is this even a question

Spot said...

So NBC is switching The Blacklist yet again?

Spot said...

Welcome here. And thanks for the information. As to the why it is airing that week and not the one before, it is probably because of it being February Sweeps. Networks really avoid going with repeats on those months.

Spot said...

Thanks!

Spot said...

The funny thing is that I wrote in my comment that I was essentially picking that number because it was my-go-to-number and it was the same number I had picked for Red Band Society! I literally put both on the same level expectations wise ahah. Silly me!

Spot said...

NBC won't, nor it should send the blacklist to Wednesdays next year. I can accept the idea that it should have done so this year, but not that it should still do it after the Thursday thing. Another issue is that if the renewed midseason drama is the night shift I doubt they will send it to a post comedy block slot like that.

Spot said...

Probably not. It's more my wishful thinking. My wish is The Blacklist ratings drop a lot on Thursday, so much that Greenblatt is forced to say: "Sorry, fans. My bad. We will move it elsewhere next fall."

Eric only asked me where would I put Neil Patrick Harris variety show in fall schedule. I constructed entire schedule instead. I learned it's better to do so, because with entire schedule posted there's no follow-up questions "Yes, but where then would air show XY?".
So I took 5 minutes to make schedule. 5 minutes is not enough time to make a good schedule. But is enough time to make a schedule better than Greenblat's nonsense schedules.

Spot said...

NPH is already picked. Initial order is 10 episodes.
If it's for fall, then it's 10 x 1 hours, obviously.
If it's a midseason filler (Mon or Sun), then it might be 10 x 2 hours.

But I'm 100% sure NPH variety show is for fall.
First, with all NBC sitcoms failing, variety show populating one comedy hour is like gift from haven for them.
More important, Neal Patrick Harris isn't Maya Rudolph. He's a big star, he was offered to replace David Letterman, FFS. Network doesn't push big stars into midseaon filler role. Not if they want to work with that star ever again.

Spot said...

Although I was in the "The Blacklist should have been on Wednesday" camp, I think the Blacklist has more audience overlap with Criminal Minds on CBS than Scandal on ABC.

Scandal is stronger in female 18-34 demos as well as minority audiences than the Blacklist, which all in all makes the Blacklist better counter programming to Scandal than anything else NBC has to throw at it.

Spot said...

For this season (2014-15) I wanted them to Blacklist avoid Criminal Minds / Modern Family, so before upfronts I suggested:
Tue: Voice / Chicago Fire / Chicago PD
Wed: comedies / SVU / Blacklist
Then Blacklist would avoid tough Wed 9 PM, with SVU being sacrificed as it usually is the case. And both Chicago shows (possible syndication cash cows) would get timeslot upgrade.

For next season (2015-16) it's not viable any more, next year they need to have new drama on Tuesday (or renewed midseason drama, maybe The Night Shift). And I'd like (currently neglected) Chicago PD next fall gets support of The Blacklist to recover a bit.
Yes, airing against both Criminal Minds and Empire could be a big problem for The Blacklist, but that's why I wrote: "If Empire stays at 9 PM, just flip Blacklist and CPD." Airing against only one of Criminal Minds / Empire I see as only a minor problem.

Spot said...

It turns out they promoted it heavily, only not in natural habitats of us internet rats, so we didn't notice ads.
http://deadline.com/2015/01/empire-marketing-campaign-vod-fox-1201351402/
"there were barbershop promotions among other stints"

Spot said...

I said NBC should schedule Blacklist at Wed 10 PM, and you're lamenting about why Wed 9 PM wasn't a good timeslot. Nobody mentioned Wed 9 PM, so you're arguing with yourself here.

Also, 8 PM timeslot never was an option for The Blacklist. It's a 10 PM show, so they'll tone done it a bit for 9 PM airing. Thus you're wrong about available timeslots, too. Analyzing Wed 8 PM / Thu 8 PM is worthless. Yet you're not even considering ideal timeslot, Wed 10 PM.

And NBC scheduled smart? Dear God, it's anything but that, it's truly awful. Greenblatt did damage to NBC's long term players (Blacklist and 2 Chicago shows), while wasting good timeslots on now sub 1.0 ratings, dead shows Marry Me, About a Boy and State of Affairs. Which many saw already in May after upfronts, but you must be the last person on earth still thinking this season's NBC schedule was good.

Spot said...

I argued that Greenblatt wouldn't put the Blacklist at 10pm because NBC wanted to use its supposed "lead-in potential". That's why I explained 8pm/9pm scenarios.

The majority of NBC's schedule is awful particular the shows that they selected to premier in the fall.

I only said that the scheduling of the Blacklist was smart, considering the motive of NBC to have a non-Voice launchpad on another night.

Spot said...

Ambitious is good, but too ambitious is not. It's too ambitious to expect sophomore drama would rejuvenate their by far the weakest night.

Look how ABC was smart - they waited for Scandal to get stronger (so they sure it's worth anchoring the night at 9 PM), and until they developed very compatible drama with big potential for 10 PM timeslot.

While NBC dumped The Blacklist onto strong competition night where they have no foothold (ABC at least always had reliable Grey's), sandwiched between two unproven rookie of a questionable quality, and said: "You're our savior, Blacklist!" That's nonsense, and Blacklist will nosedive in ratings thanks to stupidity of network leadership. Luckily it starts from high point, so at least renewal won't be in question.

Spot said...

I agree.

The move is definitely more reckless than ambitious.

But even with that being said, the move isn't the worst thing NBC has done this season.

At this point in the worst case scenario if the Blacklist plummets a massive 30% from its 2.7 fall ratings average, it would still be NBC #1 drama during the Spring.

Spot said...

Week 3: 4.3

Stop making us look like morons, Empire.

Spot said...

Empire is resurrecting FOX. Damn.
It's even injecting some life into American Idol. That was a season high!

Spot said...

Has there been any confirmation of whether Empire's next season is a full 22 episodes? If that's still up in the air, execs need to ply every single person involved with the show with champagne and swag bags to get them to say yes.

Spot said...

Empire up again? WOW! I can't remember the last time that happened. It's even helping Idol now. Now let's see if Idol-Backstrom will work too

Spot said...

It's impossible, IMPOSSIBLE, for Empire not to get a full 22 episodes next year. Or even more.

Spot said...

I smell Empire spin-off. I know it's highly unusual to talk about spin-off after only 3 episodes, but this Empire ratings are even more unusual.
Not for the next season already, that would be too early. But for 2016-17, why not? I mean, Fox will be hard-pressed to find compatible rookie for pairing with Empire. And if they would, compatibility doesn't guarantee people would equally embrace it. It's not easy to have good retention out of megahit for any show, compatible or not. But if Empire remains such a phenomenon during 2nd season, Fox would be smart to order spin-off and pair it with Empire's Season 3.

Spot said...

I was thinking more if any of the stars or writers had it in their contracts that they would only have to do 15 episodes or something. Like, ABC would love to have Viola Davis do 22 episodes of How to Get Away with Murder, but it looks like that's just not going to happen.

If there's nothing like that standing in the way, though, I'm sure Fox is already planning the rest of their schedule around the show.

Spot said...

I haven't heard of it but it's not impossible.

Spot said...

This is absolutely insane. FOX needs to open their freaking bank accounts and tell the Empire people to take whatever they want but make sure they do those freaking 22 episodes. They can't take it off the air. This is really ridiculous. And it is demolishing the competition. ABC should keep the comedies in repeats as much as possible while Empire is on the air. They will have to air originals in Feb Sweeps but other than that I would run as fast as I could from it. Criminal Minds and SVU series low are staggering.

Elsewhere, the CW had an amazing night despite all the Empire power, I am glad the 100 wasn't affected. The other quiet winner is Chicago PD. It didn't have to face empire, but still, growing 0.3 from SVU is impressive.

Spot said...

I'd be more shocked if it did, Empire seemed like the only possible hit from the midseason choices for FOX.

Spot said...

If Backstorm works... I don't even know lol. I thought there was way more upside in Empire (though not nearly as much of course). I will be even more shocked if Backstorm works. It may even do so for tonight but I fail to see how it could possibly work against blacklist and scandal later on.

Spot said...

Will they set it in the high school and call it Empire:Glee?

Spot said...

The 100 has been relatively steady at 0.5/0.6s.

Spot said...

Oh please no.

Spot said...

MF will be OK but Black-ish is in trouble after hitting 1.9 last week.Empire is clearly hurting it the most

Spot said...

Empire is clearly affecting Modern Family as well.

Spot said...

A 2.5 will be good for Backstrom, let's see

Spot said...

Empire: TV.
About empire built by female talk show host, now billionaire. All characters are fictitious. Any resemblance to real persons, living or dead, is purely coincidental.

Spot said...

MF is holding up quite nicely but the fact that it didn't hit new highs and was on the low end of its seasonal numbers the last two weeks despite season highs or close to it from middle and goldbergs is telling that Empire is limiting. It's still fine of course but long term this could be its greatest challenge yet. Every week I keep saying "Empire will start going down" but I don't even know anymore.

Spot said...

It depends on what it gets, that and how it does against Scandal and Blacklist the following week.

Spot said...

i expected MF to decline this season after not hitting a 4 for season premiere and hitting below 3 early on so their performance right now is good but yes empire is it biggest challenger since the heyday of idol. I think when they return from hiatus it will a season low but then stabilizes in the high 2s and low 3s until finale. Blackish is the one I'm very worried for

Spot said...

I think a 2.0 would already be very acceptable. I know Empire is messing up with our expectations but this is FOX who regularly had no midweek show over a 2.0 for the entire fall except for Gotham.

Spot said...

Everyone gets an Empire.

Spot said...

I feel kind of bad for ABC that the year they finally did everything right for the Wednesday block (finally!!) and that they had it going they had to face this Empire now.

Spot said...

so true, it's a good lineup until empire showed up

Spot said...

They still have Thursdays though.

Spot said...

Backstrom would be the most surprising hit since 2 Broke Girls, two terrible shows I will never understand the popularity if this happens.

Spot said...

The other networks wish they did, especially NBC with no new scripted hits this season so far.

Spot said...

ABC comedy repeats were solid both 1.3 for The Middle and Goldbergs and 1.5 for MF. 1.1for Blackish is OK but Galavant was just 0.4

Spot said...

Now maybe Blackish on repeats meant the people who DVR Empire watched live, but holy cow! If Backstrom gets a 3, I'll go nuts! Everyone else...ech. Well, except Chicago PD growing. Guess it's audience is a bit independent from its lead-in.

Spot said...

Empire/Backstrom = Blacklist/Ironside in 2013.


NBC had their biggest hit in a long time, then week 2 happened and they had 3 DOA shows.

Spot said...

Is this the first time Criminal Minds went below 2.0?

Spot said...

Yes.

Spot said...

It was rumored Taraji P. Henson wants shorter seasons, but that was before Empire premiered to this numbers. Surely now they can offer her pay raise. We'll see.

Fox didn't officially confirm fall and 22 episodes, but this Deadline article confirms they want it:
http://deadline.com/2015/01/new-girl-mindy-project-future-scheduling-fox-dana-walden-1201352538/
Fox brass would like to keep fellow renewed freshman drama Empire on Wednesday, possibly with a different unscripted lead-in, like MasterChef Jr. in the fall, before American Idol comes back.

Spot said...

Except Blackish was never holding Empire back, it's clearly a monster hit all on its' own.

Spot said...

The CW also did quite well!

Spot said...

It's quite a turnaround.

Spot said...

You're right. I just didn't notice since I don't follow CW ratings.

Spot said...

I refer not to saturation. I saw saturation watching football and the Fox shows I was already watching in early December. I refer to the quality of the ads, which at one point only had me missing Taraji P. Henson as Carter on POI rather than wanting to watch Henson as Cookie. I probably would've skipped the show if The 100 had went back into first run on the 7th instead of the 21st. And that would've been a mistake from where I sit (watching last night's ep via On Demand).

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