Thursday, January 29, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/28/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: It was officially the first week of decline for Empire (4.3), which did not adjust up in finals. Stalker (1.5) was down, putting it even week-to-week, and The 100 (0.5) took yet another finals downtick.
  • Week four will likely go down as the first week of adults 18-49 non-growth for the new megahit Empire (4.3). The show matched last week's prelim (which later adjusted up to 4.4) so it may end up not being the first week of decline either. For what it's worth, the show was up a bit more in total viewership (to 11.3 million) and adults 18-34 (3.9).
  • Fox had worse news in the 8/7c hour, where American Idol (2.9) shed all of its significant spike from last week. It should either hit or match the Wednesday low this season from two weeks ago, and it'll be roughly 25% behind last season's fourth Wednesday.
  • The only other big four network airing originals was CBS. While The Mentalist (1.3) was down at 8/7c, Criminal Minds (2.1) and Stalker (1.6) were each up a tick, perhaps benefiting from NBC's crime dramas going into repeats.
  • The CW's Arrow (1.1) remained stout, while The 100 will sweat out the finals after another preliminary 0.6.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle (R) 1.3 30% +0% -13% 1.3
The Goldbergs (R) 1.3 36% +0% -13% 1.4
Modern Family (R) 1.5 36% +0% -21% 1.6
Black-ish (R) 1.1 37% +0% -15% 1.2
Black-ish (R) 1.1 41% +120% -27% 1.3
Black-ish (R) 0.9 39% +125% -36% 1.2
ABC:+18%-21%
The Mentalist 1.3 18% -13%-0.2n/a 5/9 n/a -13% -33% 1.3
Criminal Minds 2.1 25% +5%+0.1-0.2 10/13 n/a +8% +68% 2.2
Stalker 1.5 23% +0%+0.0+0.1 8/14 n/a +0% +43% 1.5
CBS:-1%+15%
The Mysteries of Laura (R) 0.7 22% -13% -44% 0.7
Law and Order: SVU (R) 0.7 24% -44% -64% 1.0
Chicago PD (R) 0.6 19% -59% -65% 1.0
NBC:-43%-59%
American Idol Wed 2.9 33% -15%-0.5n/a 4/4 -24% -13% -18% 2.7
Empire 4.3 48% -2%-0.1-0.5 2/4 n/a -2% +5% 3.8
Fox:-7%-6%
Arrow 1.1 48% +0%+0.0n/a 2/11 +0% -4% +0% 1.1
The 100 0.5 41% +0%+0.0+0.0 4/10 n/a +0% -29% 0.5
CW:-3%-11%
Big5:-8%-15%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

40 comments:

Spot said...

Criminal Minds had the return of former main character Jason Gideon who had'mt been seem since episode 2 of season 3, (albeit in flashback form). Perhaps that helped a bit

Spot said...

Still phenomenal for Empire! Especially that 3.9 in Adults 18-34!

Spot said...

There were preemptions for College Basketball in North Carolina on CBS stations.

Spot said...

Shouldn't be a big deal at all. It's college football not during NCAA, so it shouldn't rate massively

Spot said...

Arrow is now up 3% year to year. If it manages to hold better than last Spring, which shouldn't be too hard, we could be looking at some major growth in PLUS. I certainly hope so!

Spot said...

Two questions:
- Based on Silvio's data posted yesterday, can Empire outrate the Super Bowl among african-american women between 35 and 49 years old?
- Who wins this week, Empire or TBBT? TGIT returning is going to be a major headache for CBS. And for Backstrom too, I won't be surprised if it falls to something like 1.3-1.4.

Spot said...

Forgot about The Blacklist.

Spot said...

It's funny how Fox had the biggest hit and the biggest failure of the season.

Spot said...

I miss Spot's weekly true top 25!

Spot said...

I say TBBT gets a 4.2 tonight, meaning that Empire wins the week among scripted shows.

Spot said...

I'm betting low 4s for TBBT too. Won't be surprised with them tied.


And we got it wrong, none of them wins, Blacklist does (not on spot's true though).

Spot said...

I'm surprised that The Mentalist dropped since main competitor The Mysteries of Laura was a repeat. Also surprised at the hit Idol took this week, especially with Empire not significantly cooling.

Arrow looks to be benefiting from The Flash on Tuesdays; since I don't watch the latter I can only imagine how many promos for the former air during the hour to entice viewers in.

ABC's sitcoms reran decently, like it was this past Summer all over again.

Spot said...

We will declare this Sunday belongs to next week.
And the next week we will declare that Sunday was in previous week.
Just so NBC doesn't win in your competition.

(I have nothing against Blacklist, and especially not against Spader, I just hate when Greenblatt & Salke clowns win anything)

Spot said...

On the raise this winter: Arrow; Jane.

Declining: Supernatural.

Stable: Flash; The Vampire Diaries; The Originals; The 100; Reign.
Which is good only for Flash (stable and high), while TVD is stable at disappointing fall level, and other 3 are stable at low fall level.

Doesn't matter because it's dead anyway: Hart of Dixie.

Spot said...

We don't count sports here, so, I'm all in at preventing NBC of winning anything, like, for example, this season.


Meanwhile, we shove down Greenblatt and Salke's thorats that two of their highest rated shows are final season burnoffs and their scripted average is below 1.4.


And if they decide to get the win, we pull a Kayne West, stole the award and give it to Spader to place in his loaded trophy case.

Spot said...

That's what makes it sad, that their burn off final seasons are doing better than their new shows.

Spot said...

And there was crossover episode. Since it Arrow is 3x 1.1. Before crossover:
1 x 1.1
2 x 1.0
3 x 0.9
1 x 0.8

Spot said...

That was pretty lame, because everyone knows he'll resurrect.
i actually expected big drop for winter premiere, because I assumed people are not interested in episodes with main character's screen time significantly reduced.

Anyway, I think that gimmick only did harm to Arrow ratings. While Ra's al Ghul appeance, and The Flash crossover helping it to stay flat.

Spot said...

I am not sure this is still crossover related. Arrow had its most provocative finale yet in the fall with the main character actually dying on screen so the hype was at very high levels going in. I think that is counting for something.

Spot said...

I feel bad for poor Parenthood. It's series finale has to go against How To Get Away With Murder's return. I get that NBC was saving it for sweeps, but I would have wrapped up the comedies a week early, had Parenthood return a week earlier in 2015, having a 2 hour Biggest Loser last week, with the series finale last week too. I think they would have gotten the best bang for their buck. Then have the finale of Biggest Loser be from 9-10 this week with some sort of recap at 8.

Spot said...

The 100 was adjusted down and so was Stalker.


There were no adjustments for Empire.

Spot said...

I'm watching Parenthood tonight, can't wait to see it getting murdered. I agree with you about avoiding TGIT.


By the way, NBC going from non-factor to irrelevant, but at least above 1.0 can't steal much more than a tenth from TGIT, right? Biggest Loser finale is probably getting 1.2, 1.3 at best and Parenthood will see no spike, 1.6 would be a miracle, 1.4-1.5 is more likely IMO.


FOX only affects the 8 PM hour but Grey's upside is more limited, so, it kinda offsets.

Spot said...

Sad about Parenthood's treatment, but at least it's not embarrassing itself like many of the other flop shows on the network.

Spot said...

Just in case Spot doesn't plan to update his Empire vs. Desperate Housewives weekly, here's this week's update:
Empire's 4th episode was 7% above corresponding Desperate Housewives episode (256 to 238). And through 4 episodes Empire' average is ahead by 9% (246 to 225).
However, that 246 is 6% bellow what first 23-episdoes season of Desperate Housewives averaged (262), and 2% bellow DH average through 13 episodes (252).

Spot said...

I think CBS is more the deciding factor. The huge opening numbers were against TNF which while rated should have very little overlap with TGIT. TBBT-Mom is certainly a bigger problem to GA than TNF.

However, like you said for FOX, this only affects the 8pm hour with Greys too. The problem is that we already have two things affecting Grey's in a relatively big way so it could take a hit and then sort of limit the upside for Scandal too. I don't think it will be the case though, I am hopeful and even with over in the question but I think this is people's reasoning.

Spot said...

You inspired me to calculate average of pre-Blacklist Thursday NBC lineup, originals only: 1.13 A18-49 over 45 hours so far (20 + 6.5 x 2 + 12). It may raise a hundredth or two after today's finals, but that's it. That's bad, but is not so awful as eye test would say. Because The Biggest Loser is dirty cheap, rookie comedies are not expensive, and for Parenthood NBC negotiated discount in exchange for renewal.

NBC is now going with all drama Thursday, and that Blacklist Thursday costs NBC at least 1/3 more. What I want to say, is I'm setting the bar higher for new lineup. If those 3 dramas originals would beat that cheap lineup by only 33% (1.5 A18-49 Feb-May average, originals only), in my eyes that would be a disaster (no matter NBC would declare it a big win). I would label this NBC lineup as doing OK only if it would average 1.8, and as good only if it hits 2.0. I expect 1.6 (very bad) or 1.7 (bad) from, I think, those 32 drama episodes (8 + 11 + 13).

Spot said...

Actually, it would be 34 hours. Blacklist has 22 episodes, and with 8 already aired on Monday and the Super Bowl episode added on to that, we'd have 13 left. Don't know if your approval indicator will change, but I just wanted to bring it up.

Spot said...

NBC shows getting super Bowl promo spots are;
60 secs : The Voice
30 secs : The Blacklist
30 secs : Undateable
15 secs : Odyssey
15 secs : Neil Patrick Harris variety show

Shows desperation regarding comedies. Undateable they at first dumped to summer, andnow they're promoting shit out of it. NPH which is for fall got the nod over shows currently airing.

Spot said...

Wow. I'm surprised there's nothing for Allegiance or The Night Shift.

Spot said...

Here's quote from Deadline's Nellie Andreeva:
"Among the new and returning NBC series that didn’t get promo spots during the game: new Russian spy drama Allegiance, which will follow The Blacklist on Thursdays, Mark Burnett and Roma Downey’s biblical limited series A.D., another high profile limited series, The Slap, medical drama The Night Shift which, like Undateable, earned a sophomore run this midseason after a surprisingly strong summer launch, as well as veteran supernatural drama Grimm and reality workhorse Celebrity Apprentice."

Spot said...

Thanks. Miscounted it.
No, it doesn't change anything. But keep in mind this: If NBC Thursday lineup would work well, then I'll probably move the bars, just so I don't have to admit I was wrong.

Spot said...

According to Deadline, only those 5 spots will air. NBC is getting $4.5 million for 30 secs ad, so they certainly like to have as much as possible paid spots. Though I hear there will be aired anti-domestic violence PSA. Ray Rice, ever changing the world as we know it.

Spot said...

No Allegiance, Slap, Night Shift, AD, or One Big Happy? Or are these just a few of what will air? If so, then they really dropped the ball.

Spot said...

Typical NBC stupidity.

Spot said...

That's really a big indication that NPH is for the fall then. I don't thin they would be promoting a show they plan to air a year from now. I am surprised there is nothing for the night shift and AD as well as the chicago twins which are in crossover mode this week I believe

Spot said...

Yeah, but there surely will be some promos in Pre-Game, Post-Game and in special The Blacklist episode. Plus some graphics during the game.

But I think Deadline is correctly reading NBC press release (only 5 spots during the game itself):
https://www.nbcumv.com/news/nbc-air%C2%A0series-promos%C2%A0during-super-bowl%C2%A0xlix%C2%A0coverage?network=33129

Spot said...

Thanks. Here's the updated chart:


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-80ibkfhTeQs/VMuNQ_3J6vI/AAAAAAAABJ8/av7o-pGZw8Q/s1600/empirevsdh.png

Spot said...

Yeah I saw. An interesting note is that apparently the Undateable promo is a crossover with Chicago Fire, for what it is worth.

Spot said...

Unless it got edited, here's what I found on Deadline:
"In addition to those who got their own Super Bowl shoots, a number of other new and returning NBC series will get some sort of promo spots during the game: new Russian spy drama Allegiance, which will follow The Blacklist on Thursdays, Mark Burnett and Roma Downey’s biblical limited series A.D., and medical drama The Night Shiftwhich, like Undateable, earned a sophomore run this midseason after a surprisingly strong summer launch."

Spot said...

Of course it got edited. I copy/pasted original version.
Well, NBC press release was vague. Not smart form their side. Deadline and me both jumped to conclusion. Not smart either.
But still it could mean "get some sort of promo spots during the game coverage", and not during actual game.

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