Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 1/27/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: MasterChef Junior (1.7) and Marry Me (0.8) were up. It was a bad set of finals for the CW, as The Flash (1.3) held at the new low and Supernatural (0.7) was down to a new season low of its own.
  • Week three of ABC's Agent Carter (1.3) came back after a week off and dropped another two tenths, rating slightly below its repeat Shark Tank lead-in (1.4). This put it well below the low point of the show for which it's filling in, Agents of SHIELD.
  • CBS continued to race through its order of CSI originals (1.6), and the show zoomed to a season high on a special night leading out of strong repeats from NCIS (1.6) and NCIS: New Orleans (1.6). It's still not exactly a huge accomplishment since the show had very minimal competition from repeats of Chicago Fire (0.8) and Forever (0.7), but it does help illustrate the difficulty of its usual Sunday slot.
  • Elsewhere, The Flash (1.3) is eyeing another new low but will hope for the same upward adjustment it got last week, while Supernatural (0.8) was also below average. NBC and Fox saw small declines for their respective standouts Parks and Recreation (1.4/1.3) and MasterChef Junior (1.6).

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Shark Tank (R) 1.4 32% +87% +40% 1.4
Agent Carter 1.3 36% -13%-0.2-0.4 3/3 n/a +18% +0% 1.3
Forever (R) 0.7 30% -26% -33% 1.0
ABC:+21%+1%
NCIS (R) 1.6 16% +19% +7% 1.6
NCIS: New Orleans (R) 1.6 17% +23% +33% 1.5
CSI 1.6 20% +23%+0.3+0.4 1/16 n/a +60% +60% 1.7
CBS:+32%+30%
Parks and Recreation 1.4 51% +0%+0.0n/a 3/5 +8% +0% -18% 1.3
Parks and Recreation 1.3 56% -7%-0.1n/a 6/6 +0% -7% -24% 1.4
Marry Me 0.8 45% +14%+0.1-0.2 9/11 n/a -47% -53% 0.9
About a Boy 0.8 36% -11%-0.1+0.1 10/11 n/a -47% -53% 1.0
Chicago Fire (R) 0.8 29% -33% -38% 1.1
NBC:-28%-37%
MasterChef Junior 1.7 42% -6%-0.1n/a 3/4 n/a -6% +26% 1.7
New Girl (R) 0.8 48% -20% -20% 0.8
The Mindy Project (R) 0.7 52% -30% -30% 0.9
Fox:-13%+4%
The Flash 1.3 40% -7%-0.1n/a 11/11 n/a -7% +30% 1.3
Supernatural 0.7 43% -22%-0.2-0.1 11/11 -42% -22% -42% 0.5
CW:-13%-9%
Big5:-2%-4%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

61 comments:

Spot said...

Tuesdays are really the ratings pits, eh?

What's up with all of the NCIS repeats?

Spot said...

Go On / The New Normal were bellow New Girl / Mindy at this point of season too. But not to repeats of it, and Fox comedies were stronger back then.
Greenblatt's "broad" comedy brand: From bad to worse to no words can describe.

Spot said...

The ones who picked cancel (confident) for carter were right.


CSI did well, this could be its typical average in a weekday but the show is expensive enough for CBS to be done with it and rejuvenate its schedule.


Parks falls a tenth again but it needs to hold for only 3 more weeks.


Supernatural has been underwhelming all year, right move by CW to give Flash's lead-in to another show, they could've placed SPN on thursdays though, avoiding to sacrifice a younger show next season (either a newbie ot TO) against The Scandal List.

Spot said...

Carter's dead. Damn my optimism tenfold!

Spot said...

It always made sense to move Supernatural and use Flash as a lead in.

Spot said...

Sad but I figured. Bridge series have not been doing well for ABC.

Spot said...

Disastrous, more like it especially against repeats.

Spot said...

It really is. Sundays are pretty bad too.

Spot said...

Scandal list ahah

Spot said...

They really should, now that The Vampire Diaries is not their biggest lead-in and the timeslot is not getting any easier.

Spot said...

That sounds like an interesting new show.

Spot said...

They should, it's weakening and it's been proven that nothing else is working alongside it.

Spot said...

Dropping in new shows in weak time slots clearly aren't helping as it has in the past. The post TVD slot is already clear of that. In order to make stable, strong time slots you would have to move veterans, especially ones that have already moved several times in the past.

Spot said...

Supernatural flourished in that time slot when CSI, Grey's Anatomy and The Office were all doing great. It can handle this.

And it's not like the The Vampire Diaries is a lousy lead-in. Better yet, is it really healthy for the network to protect a show that is obviously closer to the end than the beginning (I'm wondering it it will last more than two additional season at this point), instead of helping new potential hits giving those the best spots they have?

Spot said...

Maybe they should try actual adaptions of the main characters a la Arrow/Flash instead of basing it on side characters, let alone doing period pieces which rarely ever work on broadcast networks.

Spot said...

So it's an either or situation for Mondays/Thursdays.

Spot said...

It would be mistake to sacrifice Supernatural for any rookie. First of all, Supernatural isn't invincible. Moving around will hurt its ratings sooner or later.
And, in 8 years of existence The CW produced only 4 hits (Gossip Girl, The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, The Flash). You don't move one of your 4 top shows (and only 4 good rated shows) for something that has around 10% chances of success. Pedowitz's goal is to make as much as possible stable, strong timeslots. Your suggested move of SPN to Thursday would result in exactly opposite.
All in all, it makes no sense Supernatural is moved to Monday or Thursday, and it surely won't happen.

Having said that, clearly The Flash must lead into new show next fall. But it just means Supernatural will be on Wednesday 9 PM, and not in some lousy timeslot.
It's also understandable why Pedowitz is giving Tuesday 9 PM to iZombie: So people wouldn't be able to moan about how he killed it with bad timeslot after iZombie's inevitable fail.

Spot said...

Arrow/Flash are DC comic book shows with the hype/fanbase already built into them.



As for the lousy development slate, it's the CW, they're known for their low rated shows and a few hits.

Spot said...

I think we may see a variation of Surrender Mondays for The CW Thursdays next season (and I use the word "variation" because it can't get as bad as Hart of Dixie/Beauty and the Beast). A not-low-enough-priority-for-Friday veteran most likely lands here, and Supernatural does not fit that bill since Pedowitz is continuing the beat the spin-off drum.

I see it coming down to a "race" between The Originals and Reign. The former might actually help The Vampire Diaries as it brings the parent show and spin-off together, but then Mondays could be in trouble if Jane the Virgin is asked to anchor the night into a newbie. Reign has the bird-in-the-hand advantage and may just absorb the damage since it's profitable in other arenas, but it's not impossible to imagine a ratings meltdown to final-season-90210 levels. The CW definitely wants the strengthening-network narrative to continue and that would severely complicate that story. The 100 is a very dark horse candidate, especially considering its resiliency against Empire, ModFam/black-ish, Criminal Minds, & SVU, but then the less-than-22 episode orders for seasons mean it has to be replaced at some point during the season. iZombie could also be a possibility, but it has to hit a certain sweet spot: not obviously so weak that it could not survive outside the post-Flash slot, but not so strong that it needs to anchor a night.

The above scenario is also dependent on development. If they find another Jane-esque drama to pickup, then why fight that natural pairing?

Spot said...

Pretty much, but many shows haven't worked in the post TVD time slot.

And yes they should try to grow some hits like Arrow and Flash, but throwing in new shows in the same weak time slots is clearly not working.

Spot said...

I guess people won't stick around with a Marvel show regardless of quality. Netflix will never admit it, but I'm sure there will be people quitting after the first few episodes of their shows too, because people just don't seem to stick around.

Spot said...

What new hits? They have lousy development slates each year (because authors pitch good scripts to more respectable networks), and the next slate looks particularly awful. Read again what I said: CW launched 4 hits out of some 40 dramas they tried. Your wishful thinking hits aren't reality. In fact, it's completely opposite.

Another thing where you're completely disconnected from reality, is that both Arrow and The Flash were launched as night's anchors. Their only recent hits are launched with no help from lead-in. Moreover, CW never launched a hit out of those 4 strong shows I mentioned (Gossip Girl, The Vampire Diaries, Arrow, The Flash). Never.

Spot said...

I agree with you, except for the one thing: the race between The Originals and Reign is already over. Originals are ahead 26% in W18-34, and whopping 50% in A18-49.
If Reign will be on fall schedule at all, then it will be Friday.

Mon & Thu - likely
Mon: Jane the Virgin / new soapy drama
Thu: The Vampire Diaries / The Originals

Mon & Thu - possible
Mon: Jane the Virgin / The Originals
Thu: The Vampire Diaries / new girly genre drama

------
Fri - likely (ANTM on same schedule as now)
ANTM / Reign

Fri - possible (ANTM airing in summer only)
WLIIA / The 100

Spot said...

I think CSI did well, but it does suck because it basically ensures its final episode will be down from the penultimate episode. Every CSI has ended on or at a new series low. I mean Miami got overrun with a Good Wife REPEAT as a lead in

Spot said...

It probably will drop. It's competion will be the NBA All-Star Game, the SNL 40th Anniversary Special, and a special Sunday episode of The Bachelor. Last night it had very little competition.

Spot said...

I feel like if they announced it was the final episode and aired it after an original NCIS: NO on Tuesday, it would break a 2.0 easy

Spot said...

The M/Th possibility that you posit, I assume, means that The CW only debuts two new dramas again? Post-Flash and post-TVD? I'm not a big fan of that since Thursday is becoming tougher to program for The CW since ABC got its act together with TGIT. But it may be unavoidable; I really only like it if the Supernatural spin-off were being piloted this season instead of next.



An idea that I'm spitballing as I'm typing this is to have Reign and The 100 share a timeslot. With The 100 having shorter seasons, putting it on ice until Summer 2016 is an iffy proposition at best. So The CW Thursdays could go...


Oct.-Dec.: The Vampire Diaries | Reign

Jan.-Mar.: The Vampire Diaries (some r) | The 100

Mar.-May: The Vampire Diaries | Reign
Summer: Reign | The Vampire Diaries (r)


The 100 gets some repeat lead-ins but it did ok with Arrow Summer reruns. And it minimizes time off the sked if it doesn't make it for Fall. Then just swap Reign and TVD reruns in the Summer to give it the stronger local programming lead-in.

Spot said...

Two new dramas in fall, yes. Pedowitz said they will order 5-6 pilots, so 3 fall rookies is absolutely out of question. Even only one is possible, but only if pilots would be really awful. Then Reign or iZombie at Thu 9 PM.

The 100 and Reign sharing Friday timeslot? Absolutely. Neither show is worth Mon-Thu timeslot, while on Friday they can have double role: For Friday acceptable ratings + backup for the case some rookie bombs really hard. Maybe this:
Summer 2015 : Beauty and the Beast / ANTM
September 2015 - February 2016: WLIIA / The 100
March 2016 - May 2016: Reign / low (but not awful) rated rookie
Summer 2016: Reign / ANTM.

Summer airings doesn't have to be on Friday.

Spot said...

Thursday is tough slot for a rookie drama, I agree. But probably there won't be such on Thursday. I think they will first and most try and find some show compatible with Jane for Monday.

But let's say they don't find appropriate companion for Jane. As their most trusted rookie surely goes to Tuesday 9 PM, then hypothetical Thursday rookie would be 2nd strongest among their 3-4 new dramas. What was their 2nd strongest rookie in recent years? The Secret Circle, The Carrie Diaries, Reign. In my opinion, it's not worth to shuffle entire schedule just to accommodate rookie on level with mentioned shows.
So I think they should keep both Monday shows there, those at least improved night y2y, and keep 4 strong timeslots same as this spring. Let that rookie survive on his own. If Reign could survive against Grey's first, then against Scandal, then that newbie could too. If it wouldn't, then it probably wouldn't elsewhere either. And CW would just waste promotional resources on it, which they could (and should, I think) use to push Jane hard (keep it buzzy so people would binge watch Season 1 before 2nd season premieres), and push The Flash lead-out even harder.

What if that 2nd strongest rookie would actually have some potential? Well, they have solution for that unlikely case too. Just put it at somewhat easier Thursday 8 PM, and let aging The Vampire Diaries deal with big guns at 9 PM. But for that they better be sure what they're doing. TVD is typically doing (for CW) good 0.8 A18-49 / 1.1 W18-34 this season, and if Pedowitz isn't sure his rookie would at least match those numbers, then it's not worth of risk TVD dropping a lot because of moving to 9 PM.

Spot said...

How people are surprised by this, is beyond me.

Spot said...

So Viola Davis said this on Facebook: "Just wrapped filming Season 1, and now on to Season 2!"

In other shocking news, did you know breathing helps you live?

Spot said...

I think Supernatural is simply giving back what it gained last season. Last season happened something no one expected (except maybe Pedowitz): People who watched The Originals, watched Supernatural too.
It rarely happens on CW, especially with two (on paper) incompatible shows. Result: SPN had A18-49+ of 53, after 45, 44, 44 in previous 3 not-Friday seasons.
If Supernatural gets 0.6 in literally all episodes from now until season end, it will end up with A18-49+ of 45. As that's the worst case scenario, something like 47 is more likely.

Spot said...

You her Facebook stalker, or it goes beyond that?
:)

Spot said...

It was on SpoilerTV.

Spot said...

Pretty much, ABC's new breakout hit is a given.

Spot said...

No surprise there.

Spot said...

Remember when 10 days ago I said for Empire: "Looking at those breakdowns, ratings for African American Female 35-49 audience surely went through the roof."
Well, even I haven't expected rating in that demo to be as much as 40.6.
Among African-American women between 35 and 49, the show is literally the equivalent of a Super Bowl. Last Wednesday’s episode scored a 40.6 rating and 76 share in that group (Live+3) — a number exceeding the rating of some NFL championship games this century.
http://www.vulture.com/2015/01/what-empires-huge-success-means-for-the-tv-biz.html

Spot said...

I wonder what the ratings for Scandal and Murder are in that demo.

Spot said...

This show is beyond anything on scripted network TV. And yes, that includes The Big Bang Theory.


Even Scandal is jealous of how Empire has found gold out of an ignored demo.

Spot said...

BREAKING NEWS: 1+1 = 2

Spot said...

Good question. Surely high.
Similar female skew, but ratings some 25% lower, and African American viewership high 30s, not over 60% like Empire.
Maybe close to 20.0 in AAW35-49 ?

Spot said...

Pretty Little Liars on ABC Family
769K A18-34 viewers, 1.13 A18-34, with 698K out of it being female = 2.06 W18-34. But it means 0.21 rating in M18-34, only 71K young male adults watched it yesterday.
Crazy skew. I've read somewhere their rookie Chasing Life is skewing 84% female (total viewers, not in some demo).

Spot said...

Well, they gotta keep trying, because no hit lasts forever... better to get give new shows their best possible shot at success than to "protect" a 10-year-old show.

Surely lead-in might not be as important on The CW as on other networks (sometimes, even the local programming seems to be better than some of their 8pm "anchors", even if that situation keeps getting better season-by-season), but those would only be more important to nurture new shows if the new stuff is not good enough to stand alone (and, as Guest said, shows like Arrow and Flash are already known properties that should be able to self-start, unlike Jane the Virgin or anything like that).

Afterall, it's not like Supernatural wouldn't improve the Thu@9 timeslot, while a new show with potential could do the same over its numbers on Tuesdays after The Flash.

If the season ended now, I'd do something like this:

Monday
8:00 - The Originals
9:00 - Jane the Virgin

Tuesday
8:00 - The Flash
9:00 - NEW SHOW (the best of the bunch)

Wednesday
8:00 - Arrow
9:00 - NEW SHOW / The 100 (coming early if the show flops)

Thursday
8:00 - The Vampire Diaries
9:00 - Supernatural

Friday
The current mix of reality shows and second-rate scripted shows in some combination. Whatever.

Spot said...

Did that air at 8 or 9pm?

Spot said...

My theory about Supernatural is that it already attracts on its own pretty much all the males that are interested in watching it, hence not being able to take advantage of all the extra males Flash gives it - and hence effectively keeping the same Plus in post Arrow and post Flash season.

On the other hand, there are more females willing to be casual viewers so when the show is placed after a female skewing show like TO, the males who wanted to watch it will still show up but there will be more females coming from casual viewing.

Some evidence for this:
- M18-34 demo from Supernatural episode last Spring: 0.7
- M18-34 demo from Supernatural episode last night: 0.7 (Same)

- W18-34 demo from Supernatural episode last spring: 0.9
- W18-34 demo from Supernatural episode last spring: 0.7 (-0.2)



Basically, I am saying that the show is better utilized if placed after a female show than placed after Arrow or Flash. And that is why I think if they have some female drama with supernatural element it should be paired with Supernatural on Mondays.

Spot said...

I agree. Yesterday on TVBTN I was pointing out that Supernatural's season low in A18-49 last spring was the same 0.7, but it got only 1.6 million viewers to reach that demo.


Yesterday, it got the same demo with 2 million viewers. Flash and the other CW male shows are older skewing, pairing SPN with W18-34 shows makes it stronger.

Spot said...

8 PM. Pretty Little Liars always airs at 8 PM, it's their The Vampire Diaries, not strong as it used to be, but still #1 and leading into something more often failing than not. OK, like TVD until Flash came.

January 2015, ABC Family schedule, and F12-34 ratings:
Mon 8 PM - The Fosters / 1.41 --> 1.20
Mon 9 PM - Chasing Life / 1.09 --> 0.70 (ouch, that renewal for Season 2 might be nixed, or order shortened)
Tue 8 PM - Pretty Little Liars / 2.42 --> 2.02 --> 2.36
Tue 9 PM - Switched at Birth / 1.20 --> 1.25 --> 1.22
Wed 8 PM - Melissa & Joey / 0.83 --> 0.69
Wed 8:30 PM - Babby Daddy / 1.06 --> 0.64

Spot said...

No, you're completely wrong. Your schedule is something Bob Greenblatt would do. But not Pedowitz, he's very good at his job.

First of all, Pedowitz always picks *both* male skewing shows, and female skewing shows. It means you're pairing Arrow with something like telenovela based First Lady. In the worst case (but I'd say likely) scenario SPN (moved from natural pairing with Arrow) would score 0.5 and newbie 0.3, which is less than what SPN at Wed 9 PM + infomercials at Thu 9 PM would score.

Second, Pedowitz is very realistic. Unlike you, he's not dreaming about multiple hits from one cycle. If he doesn't trust the show, he simply dumps it into bad timeslot (The Messengers, Cult). At best, he tests it behind good lead-in late in the season (iZombie, The 100). That way if things go wrong, then CW needs to put up with only 6-7 episodes of bad ratings in regular season. CW is not stupid to take such risks already in fall, and possibly self-inflict unnecessary hole in the schedule. And they're absolutely not ready to risk creating two such holes, which would happen if both SPN would drop a lot on Thursday and rookie would bomb. They would risk that move with something low rated (The 100, Reign). Sure, it costs them almost nothing. But they're not crazy to risk one of their few good rated shows collapsing.

You say, what if newbie has potential to be a hit? Well, then they would surely give it even stronger lead-in, The Flash. They would nurture it at Tue 9 PM for a season (half a season at least). Unless it would be incompatible with Flash. But then it would be surely incompatible with male skewing Arrow too, and they would have it anchor the night in a CW style (Monday or Thursday, depending on what they think it's more compatible with, Jane or TVD).

And you say, what about two potential rookie hits? Well, ain't you a fountain of optimism? That never happens, but let's humor you.
Mon: "female hit" / Jane
Tue: Flash / "male" hit
Wed: Arrow / Supernatural
Thu: TVD / Originals

And allow me some wishful thinking now, best case scenario: Both new hits score above 1.0. Jane boosted by Netflix binge watching over summer and stronger lead-in scores 1.0 regularly. Darker than Flash Arrow helps Supernatural staying in high 0s with occasional 1s. Synergy between TVD and its spinoff helps ratings not dropping y2y, and in some weeks are even up. Ratings are good not only in 18-34 demos, but also in A18-49 and A25-54, so Tribune practically begs CBS/WB for renewal of affiliation.
But that's only in my dreams, I see no hits in their development slate, let alone two.

Spot said...

Thanks. I don't follow ABC Family or its ratings at all so I had no idea. I was just asking to see potential effects they could be having on the CW.

Spot said...

Yeah I always figured that part of what happened with TO last Spring was due to PLL since its decline coincided with its arrival at midseason.

Pedowitz is generally very good at picking which nights counter programming with male or female. The problem is that by having the male nights avoid sports (which he should do 100%) he is basically forced to left the female nights go up against the voice (and abc family) and TGIT. But well, it's still the least horrible solution.

Spot said...

Yeah. And MTV too. But unlike ABCF, MTV doesn't program 8 PM hour, and not all their shows are targeting F12-34, I think.

ABC Family had greater impact on CW before. That's because Dawn had 4 girly nights, while Pedowitz has only 2 such nights, and one of those two is Thursday on which ABC Family doesn't air shows.

So currently ABCF hurts only The Originals somewhat. It's surely less of a problem than last season when in 2nd part of the season Originals went directly against PLL, The Fosters are not as strong competition. Maybe Jane too, but minimal: Jane isn't completely young oriented, plus Chasing Life seems to be fading fast since not having PLL lead-in in this 2nd part of the season (in summer Monday was Switched at Birth into Fosters, and Tuesday PLL into Chasing Life, Wednesday Young & Hungry into Mystery Girls).

Spot said...

Yeah. Plus his options were narrowed down. When Arrow was picked, ABCF was strong on Mon/Tue, and it made no sense to move very strong TVD from Thursday. While when Flash was picked, for both Arrow / TVD move made no sense, plus Fox scheduled Gotham on Monday.

Spot said...

Yeah. I think Gotham was probably the deciding factor in putting Flash on Tuesdays. Monday Night Football was also probably another one.

Spot said...

Not same magnitude.
MNF = just a bad break.
Gotham = deal breaker.

Spot said...

Genuine question - how much of this is because the African-American population seem to form a distinct identity group in a way white people do not, and will strongly support shows by/for them? If that is the case, has that been strengthened by recent events such as the Michael Brown shooting? (Got thoughts on that for a hoped-for Shonda block Question tonight.)

In an age where the TV audience is so scattered that a mid-2s demo is enough for a big hit, perhaps being able to nail a targeted sub-demo is the way forward. The Shonda block has done it, now Empire has done it.

Spot said...

Gotham being placed on Monday was a good break for Flash. It had to avoid Gotham. This way it could also avoid football.

Spot said...

Perhaps the full-season-at-once release method would be a benefit to a Marvel show. I don't watch SHIELD but I heard about how the show got better over the first season. Being able to binge-watch can blunt the narrative that builds over weeks that a show isn't going anywhere plot-wise.

Spot said...

If SPN can handle any slot possible, maybe throw it after Jane on Monday and put The Originals in with TVD?

Spot said...

But Agent Carter is an 8 episode miniseries that hit the ground running and it still did the big drop offs.

Spot said...

I like your schedule. Better than the one I did before. In this scenario, I'm just worried about Jane sticking behind some unknown - albeit compatible - property in its crucial second season. The rest works great.

I don't know anything about their development slate for the new season, but they have to try something. Maybe they won't have another The Flash on their hands, but a new The 100 wouldn't hurt, would it?

Spot said...

It is only if they would have really great trust in "female new drama".
If it would be just mild trust, then Jane / new soapy drama.
Here I assume current trend (= Jane going up, and The Originals flat at best) continues, so it's better Jane to be an anchor, and TO somewhere at 9 PM (not Friday, because despite bleeding, Originals are still stronger than Reign and The 100).

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