Friday, January 9, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 1/4/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Simpsons (4.7) and Brooklyn Nine-Nine (3.0), putting both series on the very narrow year-to-year upside in their respective slots. Celebrity Apprentice (2.4), Bob's Burgers (2.0), Madam Secretary (1.5) and CSI (1.3) also upticked.
  • ABC had a promising start out of its four-week newbie Galavant (2.1 at 8:00, 1.9 at 8:30), which built big on its lead-in from America's Funniest Home Videos (1.3). A drop from 2.1 to 1.9 is typically not a good sign in the 8:00 hour, but the overall viewing dynamics were likely a bit irregular on this night with a huge NFL playoff game wrapping up just before 8:00. While it may have benefited from high overall viewing, the lead-out dramas Resurrection (1.0) and Revenge (0.9) most certainly did not, so clearly there was some real interest in Galavant.
  • NBC also made a significant opening Sunday splash with the return of Celebrity Apprentice (2.3). It's definitely reminiscent of The Biggest Loser's explosive return at 3.0 on this night a couple years ago, but this one is arguably even more impressive; this CA premiere was up a whooping 35% from its last premiere, and that last premiere was almost two full years ago! The Bachelor on Monday will not be an easy opponent for this show, but this start should position Apprentice as a more than adequate piece of The Voice filler.
  • Fox had the enormous NFL playoff lead-in and got its usual big bounce for the comedy lineup. The Simpsons (4.6) tied its rating on this night last year, while Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.9) tied the year-ago episode of Bob's Burgers. The lineup was a bit down year-to-year in the 9:00 hour with Family Guy (2.8) and Bob's Burgers (1.9), but everything except Family Guy hit a new season high.
  • CBS was left behind in all the shuffle with Madam Secretary (1.4), The Good Wife (1.3) and CSI (1.2) all only managing to tie their lows from the fall.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos 1.3 27% +0%+0.0n/a 3/9 -19% +18% -16% 1.6
Galavant 2.0 34% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +567% +8% 2.0
Resurrection 1.0 31% +0%+0.0+0.0 8/10 n/a +233% -44% 0.9
Revenge 0.9 29% -25%-0.3+0.0 11/11 -50% +200% +20% 1.2
ABC:+160%-13%
60 Minutes 0.8 14% -53%-0.9n/a 16/16 -38% -45% -36% 1.1
Madam Secretary 1.5 16% -21%-0.4-2.9 6/12 n/a -14% +58% 1.6
The Good Wife 1.3 16% -7%-0.1-0.1 8/11 -7% -19% -7% 1.3
CSI 1.3 19% -7%-0.1-0.1 6/13 n/a -7% -16% 1.5
CBS:-21%-5%
Dateline Sun 1.3 26% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% -55% +2% 1.5
Celebrity Apprentice 2.4 48% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -64% +25% 2.5
NBC:-61%+1%
NFL Overrun 11.9 46% +892%+10.7n/a 1/18 -21% +133% -31% 9.9
The Simpsons 4.7 56% +62%+1.8+6.7 1/10 +2% +104% +2% 2.1
Brooklyn Nine-Nine 3.0 62% +100%+1.5+2.7 1/12 n/a +131% +3% 2.1
Family Guy 2.8 64% +22%+0.5+0.9 2/7 -10% +100% -10% 2.2
Bob's Burgers 2.0 64% +54%+0.7+1.3 1/8 -31% +67% -20% 1.5
Fox:+121%-24%
Big4:+9%-17%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

31 comments:

Spot said...

Does his best Spot impression *cough*

* The premiere of ABC's Galavant had a strong start (2.1/1.9), beating several broadcast network's fall comedy premieres. A promising start, but It faces tough Golden Globe competition next week.

* Galavant failed to help the rest of ABC's lineup, with Resurrection (1.0) matching its series low and Revenge (0.9) hitting its series low.

* Over on FOX, the close NFL play-off game preliminarily boosted their regular Sunday lineup to highs. The Simpsons (4.6) and Bob's Burgers (1.9) had season highs, Brooklyn Nine-Nine (2.9) preliminarily had a regularly-scheduled series high, while Family Guy (2.6) was only behind its Simpsons crossover season premiere. We'll see if these come down in finals.

* CBS's lineup returned low after the holidays, with Madam Secretary
(1.4) and CSI (1.2) matching their series lows. The bigger winner was The Good Wife (1.3) which returned to its normal level.

* NBC's Celebrity Apprentice (2.3) was up considerably from its last premiere (1.7) from almost two years ago (3/3/2013)

Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted. Spot's writeup forthcoming!

Spot said...

I was right in my initial hunch that Galavant would at least hit the low-end of typical OUAT numbers, around a 2.0. But I definitely didn't expect Celebrity Apprentice to crest a 2.x, too. It's about comparable to The Biggest Loser's 3.0 debut two years ago given the league average decline over two years and since CA has been off the sked for awhile.

I guess it's a "win" that Resurrection held even from its last episode. I still wish ABC would swap Revenge and Resurrection for this month, but I understand why it's not going to happen.

Finally, a new episode of Family Guy! And it did well if The OT was brief enough to not scramble Fox's numbers for the night.

Spot said...

Ahah very close! I think the premiere of CA should have more focus though, it's a huge accomplishment and allows for a lot of theories if this keeps up for the whole trend, since it had already happened with TBL two years ago too.

Spot said...

- Revenge just died .I am really sad fore the show and I hope we get a final conclusion, ABC should just announce it as the final season.
- Galavant did great and much better than I expected, though it is bound for a big drop next week as curiosity dies down and as Golden Globes hit it. But this is still an amazing start for a bridge show. Makes me hopeful for Agent Carter!
- CBS did poorly. I love MS but I am not sure 1.4 is enough for renewal, I was hoping for a 1.6 or something.
- FOX obviously did amazing but it's a one night thing, really.
- CA is probably is the big story of the night, I really didn't expect such a high return. Let's see how it does on Monday but this is very promising. And we may have to start believing that reality shows don't die and that they simply need some time away for people to miss it. I think if this continues throughout the season, NBC should put TBL on Sundays next Winter and TA on Mondays at the same time. If AD will become a permanent thing and be launched around Easter, they could likely need something to fill the void until then on Sundays too.

Spot said...

Wow. Galavant and CA did way better than I thought. Yeah, it's one week so far, but I'm impressed.

Spot said...

Good numbers for Galavant, CA impressed me as well.


The Madam Secretary dilemma, keep it because Good Wife is ending, meaning it's an easy replacement and CBS sundays are like fridays for them or cancel it because it does worse than Stalker?

Spot said...

Add some Biggest Loser comparsion to Celebrity Apprentice numbers and spot can copy and paste.


PS: Family Guy got a 2.8.

Spot said...

Apparantly Empire is actually a good show. That's great. I think judging by the jump for the finale, Idol can do a 3.0 on premiere night and Empire can hold most of it (especially since it has limited commercial interruption). That being said I expect to generally see drop offs at the half hour point. Party due to lead in dynamics, but also it is going against Blackish. Which is also a good show that's an African American draw. I consider this de facto renewed at the moment. I really hope if it looks legit FOX gets a FULL season next year and none of the limited crap.
.
Who doesn't want to watch a film about Captain America's girlfriend? Agent Carter looks great and I think it will have a big opening and hold decently. Of course, Shield manages to keep declining regardless of how good it is, so what do I know.
.
I want Backstrom to suceed because Dwight K. Schrute. But once the Blacklist returns I won't be watching, so good luck

Spot said...

Good job! Of course I gotta disagree about The Good Wife being a winner. My spotvault analysis says it is -7% its average this season while CSI is a whopping -8% its average. I know, nitpicky

Spot said...

Good job, Galavant and Celebrity Apprentice.
However, I expect big drop for CA today. Because yesterday it was much helped by indirect lead-in from a big game on Fox - Dateline half-hours were amazing: 0.7 / 0.8 / 1.8 / 2.1, as audience gradually moved from Fox to other channels between 7:45 and 8:30 PM. And today CA goes against strong competition with all networks in originals.

I'm pessimistic about Fox dramas too. Not only there's same problem of strong competition, but there also was too long hiatus. In my opinion, at least. I certainly hope for long "previously" segment on start of this episode (Gotham, I don't watch Sleepy Hollow), I already don't remember where we left.
From ABC and CBS I expect solid, yet not spectacular ratings. Though, The Bachelor premiere goes live (for the first time ever, I think), and it can't hurt. And Scorpion / Sleepy Hollow aren't airing against football game for the first time this season, so I might be proved too pessimistic. Hopefully I will be..

Spot said...

I feel this will be lost in the shuffle of news, but that .8 from 60 Minutes is a series low. 2 ticks below its 1.0 previous low. It gets football next week so no big deal. Revenge's .9 series low is worse. It had DOUBLE that a year ago.

Spot said...

According to the TV Guide, Madam Secretary gets the Broncos-Colts lead-in next week.

Spot said...

Good to know they aren't wasting a football lead-in in a repeat, last year it was Elementary (R)/TGW/Mentalist

Spot said...

To Madam Secretary's credit, it did almost double its lead in. If I were CBS I would renew it for 13 episodes (with a back 9 option) for Fridays at 8. It already skews ancient, I'm sure it shares some Blue Bloods viewers. Overhaul Sundays, moving the Good Wife to 10. I think it has earned a final season, but no sense shaping a night after a week anchor that will be leaving that year.

Spot said...

Just another example of how desperate CBS is to make Elementary a hit. They wouldn't stop promoting it during the game yesterday.

Spot said...

Those Dateline half hours are absolutely insane, when I first saw them I thought it was a mistake but multiple sites are reporting it. That's really crazy.

As for the FOX dramas, they are doing some very strange things. They don't have enough time to air the following during the season as it stands, but they insist on keep airing horribly rated SH repeats instead. Gotham and SH are both new this week but then on break next week already. Why the hell did they even bother to air them this week then? So random. And SH shouldn't need to be repeated this much, the following should simply premiere earlier. As low as it may go, it will rate higher than SH repeats, so it makes no sense to save originals of TF to the summer IMO.

I expect high ratings from ABC and CBS actually tonight. The Bachelor has done amazing the past two seasons and they are doing a live, 3 hour premiere for the first time, so it should help some more. Meanwhile, CBS Monday tends to hit its peak on January and with the voice out of the way and more favorable competition skew wise from ABC, I don't see why that shouldn't happen tonight.

Spot said...

Now, since I have data for Galavant and Celebrity Apprentice, might as well say how I felt then and now. I thought that Galavant would be in the low 1's due to the bizarre concept and the upcoming competition for the next two weeks, but now? Eh, probably mid-1's, with perhaps a cancelation. For Celebrity Apprentice, I thought perhaps low-to-mid 1's, but after the ratings data, I expect mid-1's to be the average. So 1.5 for Galavant and 1.6 for CA.

Now, the ones I don't have data for:

Bachelor: Eh, I don't follow the show, outside of the whole Juan Pablo controversy, but given how steady the show has been, I doubt there will be any major drop, and perhaps even a slight increase. Down to around a 2.2 or 2.3 average.

Agent Carter: While I am a Marvel fan, I admit I'm not quite an aficionado, so bare that in mind. Given how SHIELD is only an okay performer, will the fans who bailed and/or newcomers be interested in a show starring Cap's girlfriend? Of course the show itself won't air with any competition outside of NCIS: New Orleans and the Marvel brand has been strong and has been promoted plenty (though every time they bring up "she's a woman doing a man's job" I want to scream, but that's beside the point). I'd say premiere in the twos, followed by high 1's throughout its run, with a renewal in the same spot.

Masterchef Jr.: Strong in the slot, but airing a new cycle in less than a month, and we know what happened to Wipeout and SYTYCD. But because of how short it will be, I'll say 1.5 average, as you have it.

American Idol: ...uh, I dunno. I guess it'll have a premiere and finale in the 3s, then go down into the low-to-mid 2s for the rest of the run, so I guess 2.3 average.

Empire: It's a hip-hop Nashville, but has the benefit of being on Fox, where the only dramas that are worth bragging about are Gotham and Sleepy Hollow. But the concept is far different from any of its competition. But, there's other things against it. For one, it's on Fox. Two, AI might not be that potent of a lead-in anymore. Three, a unique counter-program didn't help Red Band Society in the slightest. And Empire will be surrounded by Modern Family/Blackish, Criminal Minds, and Law and Order. I say it premieres in the high 1's and doesn't fall that hard and averages a 1.4 and maybe a pity renewal in the process.

World's Funniest Fails: It's cheap filler that will rate as well as a repeat, but it's probably dirt-cheap so unless it's in your worst case, it'll stick around, even at my .7 average.

Backstrom: 1.2 average. It airs against two of the biggest dramas, has the smell of Rake, and when Bones leaves the schedule, there's still a large excess of episodes even if it returns in its March slot. Pulled during February sweeps, and American Idol and/or repeats swoop in with Bones returning early.

Don't care about Glee or Parks and Rec since they won't be here next season anyway.

Spot said...

Agent Carter - 2.10, but frontloaded.
This premieres on ABC day after first ever College Football Playoff title game (January 12th on ESPN). Each of semifinals already attracted over 28 million viewers, thus becoming two cable's largest audiences in history. I expect some 35 million people will see promos for Carter during that title game, so I'm taking over on any line Spot will set for Carter's premiere beforehand. Yes, I expect ratings to drop bellow 2.0 sooner or later in show's run, but that run consists of only 8 episodes, so...

Empire - 1.45
It doesn't look DOAish. On the other hand, it most certainly doesn't look like a hit.

Backstrom - cancelled.
Thrown to the wolves, this is bound to be bellow 1.0 in 3rd episode, 4th at latest.
I'm sure about that, I'm not sure only about trajectory.
Will it be 1.8 -> 1.3 -> 0.8? Or more like 1.2 -> 1.0 -> 0.8?
As I'm not expecting Backstrom to air all 13 episodes (at least not on Thursday), I see no sense in me predicting any average.

Glee - 0.7.
I can't see it getting 1.0s, but I can't see it dropping to The CW Friday level either.

Celebrity Apprentice - 1.30
Deceptively high premiere ratings. Then again, I always underestimate stupidity of the masses, so I might be completely wrong here.

The Bachelor - 2.50
No Olympics this year, no How I Met Your Mother any more. Then I think it stays even y2y.

MasterChef Junior - 1.80
Parks&Rec is less of a competition than The Voice was.

World's Funniest Fails - 0.30.
So, this is the first show picked by that committee that now runs Fox? Wow, it seems they're going to regret letting Reilly go. Yes, I know.

American Idol - I have no idea. What Spot said.

Parks and Recreation - What Spot said. I guess.

Galavant - I dislike everything about this show. I'm too biased to predict anything.

Spot said...

Parks airs at 7 in the central time zone. State of the Union airs at 8 here. Not an issue

Spot said...

I personally approve of such an approach to this post. Might be a good idea to do monthly/bi-monthly (depending on new show volume) for midseason going forward.

Will ***EDIT*** with thoughts on shows shortly.

Spot said...

I don't know why but I fee like State is going to be totally lost in the January shuffle now.

Spot said...

I hope State's ratings grow!

Celebrity Apprentice did well so it might be a strong lead in

Spot said...

who knows..

Spot said...

I don't know, it got the interest ratings now lets see if it gets the if it sticks ratings.

Spot said...

What others shows do you watch on TV?

Spot said...

It would be interesting if Empire does really well and Black-ish loses viewers as a result.

Spot said...

not much to be honest, I'm not into reality tv so, love criminal minds, castle, sometimes state. I cant go for a lot of the crap tv nowadays. Reality tv doesn't do it for me.

Spot said...

Yeah I'm not into reality TV much either. Since you like State of Affairs you should check out the Blacklist. Season 1 is on Netflix.

Spot said...

State is an ok show, generally I'm not into those types of shows, somebody I know is affiliated with the show so I tune in occasionally.

Spot said...

Oh you know one of the actors?

Spot said...

I can attest that Empire is a decent serial that definitely needs improvement. With that stated, I predict it will premiere well on Jan. 7 amidst the enormous amount of promos it has gotten. For the sake of the show, it better get better quickly or it won't get any season pickup

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