Wednesday, January 28, 2015

War of 18-49 Update, Survivor (Fall 2014)

Let's take a look at the fall 2014 season (the twenty-ninth overall) of Survivor on CBS.

Timeslot Lo Avg Hi y2y A18-49+ Label y2y Results
Wednesday 8:001.8 2.322.8 -6%138*hit +5%* detail

*- For this winter's War of 18-49 updates, the A18-49+ is based on a projected league average, calculated by applying the league average's current year-to-year trend (thru 1/18/15) to the final 2013-14 average. This should help make these numbers compare more fairly with fall seasons past.

Rating the Ratings: After big drops for the previous couple of fall seasons, Survivor was due for a strong fall season, and it got one. It looked like it could be something really special in the opening weeks; the 90-minute premiere's 2.8 demo was up two tenths year-to-year and week two was up again. But eventually it settled into a long period of upper single-digit declines, which is still a positive trend nowadays. Overall, it added up to the smallest year-to-year decline for a Survivor season in four calendar years, and the projection says this will be the best Plus for a Survivor season since fall 2011. Good job. Grade: B+.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for Survivor.


Spot said...

The only really concerning point to me was it got down to a *mere* 2.0 when it aired into the 9 o'clock hour in the first week of December against full fledged competition.

Spot said...

I wonder if Season 31 (if it happens again, it will be in the fall) could make it back to "big hit" if it has a good theme/cast. But, it's a shame that San Juan Del Sur, which was MUCH worse than 25-28, probably the best four season stretch in many years, did so much better. I'm looking forward to this next one, though!

Spot said...

I'm not sure if there is much correlation between season quality and ratings trend. Looking at the War of 19-49 page, the drop sizes seem pretty arbitrary when compared to the season quality consensus. My biggest fear is that Season 31 might have to go up against Empire, so hopefully there isn't too much crossover with those shows. But I do have a pretty good feeling about S30 too!

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