Friday, January 9, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 1/7/15


WHAT MATTERS: 
  • FINALS UPDATE: Fox's series were each up a tick, putting Empire (3.8) in a tie with How to Get Away with Murder for top series premiere of the season.
  • Fox's latest high-stakes drama launch was an absolutely rousing success. Empire was the breakout surprise of the season, launching at an enormous 3.7 demo rating and nearly 10 million viewers. At the moment, this rating trails only a Scandal-fueled How to Get Away with Murder (3.8) among this season's series premieres, and it may not be #2 after finals. Adding to the amazement is that Empire did this despite a pretty meh lead-in from American Idol (3.1), which started over 30% behind last year's two-hour premiere.
  • Though Fox was far stronger than usual, most programming on the other networks seemed unfazed. ABC actually had new season highs opposite Idol from both The Middle (2.3) and The Goldbergs (2.5), but Modern Family (3.2) and especially Black-ish (2.1) had a rougher time opposite the Empire premiere.
  • NBC was at pretty normal levels with The Mysteries of Laura (1.3), Law and Order: SVU (1.7) and Chicago PD (1.6), in a case where Fox's strength was probably cancelled out by CBS resting its crime dramas.
  • As for CBS, The Mentalist (1.3) debuted on Wednesday at close to its usual level on Sunday in December, but lead-out The People's Choice Awards (1.8) struggled; the show was 25% behind last year's rating.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.3 35% +5%+0.1n/a 1/10 +5% +44% +5% 2.3
The Goldbergs 2.5 41% +14%+0.3+0.1 1/10 +47% +19% +67% 2.4
Modern Family 3.2 44% +3%+0.1+0.3 8/11 -9% +28% -9% 2.9
Black-ish 2.1 43% -9%-0.2+0.1 10/11 n/a -22% +24% 1.7
Galavant (R) 0.8 35% -79% -43% 0.9
ABC:-30%+0%
The Mentalist 1.3 18% -7%-0.1n/a 3/6 -28% +100% -16% 1.4
People's Choice Awards 1.8 27% -25% +188% -25% 1.9
CBS:+158%-23%
The Mysteries of Laura 1.3 24% +8%+0.1n/a 6/11 n/a +53% -16% 1.4
Law and Order: SVU 1.7 28% +21%+0.3+0.1 5/10 -19% +48% -21% 1.8
Chicago PD 1.6 27% +7%+0.1+0.3 3/10 -20% +7% -18% 1.6
NBC:+31%-19%
American Idol Wed 3.2 36% n/an/an/a 1/1 -32% +392% +156% 3.0
Empire 3.8 49% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +407% +204% 3.5
Fox:+400%+180%
Arrow (R) 0.2 26% -33% -33% 0.3
Penn and Teller: Fool Us (R) 0.4 48% +33% +100% 0.5
CW:+0%+20%
Big5:+58%+20%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

116 comments:

Spot said...

Just so everyone knows, Empire got a higher premiere rating than Gotham, and a tenth behind HTGAWM. Just wanted to bring that up.

Spot said...

I'm 3/3 this week I should so buy the lotto lol. Anyway I definitely thought that Empire would've perform well but I Was Looking for mid-high 2s. I never thought it would've beaten Idol even in it's weaken state.

Spot said...

WOW @ Empire! Huge premiere. I surely expected it could get a 2-something, but second biggest premiere of the season? No way.

And it could very well be adjusted... simply shocked.

Spot said...

Blackish took a hit from Empire I feel

Steady for MF at least (strong episode too!)

Very nice to see The Middle and Goldbergs hit season high.Before The Middle would hit season low against the Idol premiere

Galavant rerun of 1.0 at 10pm was nice but second ep at 10:30 scored just 0.7. Still a better performace of what a Nashville and maybe Forever rerun can

Strong for FOX. Downsizing Idol to an hour was worth it just for that strong Empire performance, I knew Empire will premiere strong just on that cast alone

Spot said...

I was right to not have Carter's so-so debut phase my optimism. Holy crap Empire! That's only a tenth lower than Smash 3 years ago! And that had a SEVEN. POINT. SEVEN. Lead in in the last half hour of The Voice. 118% higher than Rake with a similar lead in! Absolutlely crazy. This is a Reilly project right?
.
Hopefully, this year FOX can be the inverse of last season: great fall, awful spring and have an awful, AWFUL fall and a decent spring

Spot said...

This right now is more impressive than HTGAWM, but give Gotham credit for having to completely self start. I consider them about equally as impressive

Spot said...

Looks like we found a top ten moment on 2015 already. I saw them promote this thing during the final game of the World Series, before it had a timeslot. During football boosted Animation Brooklyn Domination and Gotham. This week was the week the launch it!

Spot said...

Massive props to the Middle for a seasom high! Same goes for the Goldbergs! This is the second highest demo point in the show's history, and the only other point had a 4.7 lead in! The Middle is only 8 tenths away from Modern Family and the Goldbergs only 7! That's insane. I'm pretty sure Goldbergs and Modern got a 1.3 and a 3.1 in the same week last year!

Spot said...

I second that.


FOX knows Idol is not going to come back to its death star years and this is probably the first time a lead-out builds on it if I'm not mistaken (according to you, only Glee built in the W18-34 demo).


FOX might have found their flagship show, it's impressive considering how Idol has dropped, how Smash flopped by itself, how Glee collapsed and how The Voice is trending down.

Spot said...

Overall, a nice night for the networks, except CBS.


NBC did on pair with its most recent airings, but they are disappointed they'll finish 4th on wednesdays again despite FOX awful fall, ABC had a strong showing at 8 PM but Black-ish has an obvious audience overlap with Empire. Mentalist is at its typical levels but people ignored their own award compared to the previous years.

Spot said...

- I am stunned with Empire and that really is the story of the night, everything else seems quite irrelevant. We are only 8 days into the new year, but I already know one moment that will have to be in the top 10 ratings moments of 2015 and it is this very one. FOX needs to pray to all the gods that this holds and then it will need to make it a year-round player. Wednesdays could have just been permanently fixed.
- ABC held up very well. Blackish took the biggest hit but that was to be expected and with empire certainly coming back to earth in the following weeks, this one will rebound too I think. MF held up very well and TM and TG did amazingly. It's really strange to see those comedies hitting highs against idol premiere night when this used to be the low point for them a few years ago!
- Laura wasn't nearly as much affected by the mentalist as I thought and it had a nice performance. I still think the night shift will take its spot next year but this was a nice performance . SVU and PD did okay too.

Spot said...

We should all remember how the Resurrection shock went. I am not saying Empire won't hold at all, especially because I think the Resurrection rejection was pretty unique, but it's still a learning case not to trust premiere numbers that seem too good to be true. I think calling Empire a possible FOX's flagship show might be premature.

Spot said...

Sort of random comment, but FOX actually makes the best press releases. They actually give a bunch of objective data including stating how much their shows are down year to year.

Spot said...

Great for Empire, shockingly good premiere ratings.
Renew (confident). Even with Resurrection-style drops Empire would finish in Gotham tier, and not in Sleepy Hollow / Bones tier, which I (and many others) expected.

ABC 8 PM block did very good too. ABC 9 PM block and Idol - not good, but this is just one data point, let's wait and see.

This year started crazy. My expectations are sometimes unreasonably low or high, but last few days ratings are also far from always reasonable Spot's O/U lines. Just crazy.

Spot said...

This is the sort of launch I thought Gotham could pull off. Should've at least figured Empire would clear the line given how much it got promoted in NFL games alone, but this? Probably the Truly strongest drama episode on network TV this season? My word.

Spot said...

Spot, I'm disappointed you didn't go with a pithy headline like you've done on occasions before (like "Three-py Hollow" and "Fall off the Bones" last season) - I think the headline for today is "Empire building."

Spot said...

FOX needs to just not have this be a limited series. They have so few working pieces, they need this in the fall.

Spot said...

Funny thing is that Resurrection came to my mind but I went over the top seeing a top 10 ratings moment.

Spot said...

Idol still gave it a pretty sizable and compatible lead-in. I think Gotham was probably the strongest considering it was a self starter going up against the voice, the big bang theory (double pumped) and MNF (starting at 8h30). Empire only had MF has serious competition last night and then okay numbers from SVU, People's Choice and Black-ish.

Spot said...

I disagree about MF not doing good, I think it did okay. It was actually even year to year actually. And this has been what it has done for most of the season and that is with much less competition (Red Band vs. Empire).

Spot said...

To fit Idol and a 22-episode Empire, would you put Scream Queens (or whatever new show FOX has for next fall) on wednesdays at 8 or in one of the thursday timeslots?


I believe Bones will be on thursdays next season but if FOX tries somehing like Scream Queens/Empire on wednesdays and Bones/Sleepy Hollow on thursdays, they'll need to move Bones or put it on hiatus again.

Spot said...

Scream Queens with Empire seems like a strange match. Why not Scream Queens on Tuesdays and Ramsay as reality counter-programming on Thursdays? This would force Sleepy Hollow to Wednesdays at 8, which isn't ideal but that isn't a bad slot for drama counter-programming as I've been saying.


Maybe this:
Monday: Gotham + New Drama
Tuesday: Scream Queens + Comedy
Wednesday: Sleepy Hollow + Empire
Thursday: Bones + Masterchef Jr.
Friday: Whatever
Sunday: Comedy

Spot said...

Man, this sucks. Idol fell below where I thought it would (my guess would have been 3.5), but Empire almost doubled up my line.

Spot said...

I'd rather have Bones and Sleepy Hollow reunite on Thursday and use fellow reality Masterchef Jr. lead into Empire

Spot said...

All three are very impressive, but I think Empire's is the best, especially if it show stability. Gotham had to completely self start against The Voice, DWTS, MNF and TBBT. HTGAWM held all of Scandal's audience (and grew from it in viewers) at 10:00. And Empire grew six tenths and skewed younger than lead in American Idol, in the deadzone network that is FOX, held 100% steady in its half hours and didn't even premiere in the fall season. Amazing!

Spot said...

I consider the first week of January with most of the US bitterly cold to be equal of almost equal to premiere week. I mean already this week The Simpsons, Brooklyn Nine-Nine, Bob's Burgers, NCIS: LA, The Middle, and The Goldbergs have hit new season highs as well as impressive premiere from Celebrity Apprentice and Empire.

Spot said...

I like the theory of Bones and Sleepy Hollow reunited but I feel Sleepy Hollow would get crushed by the double whammy of The Blacklist and Scandal on Thursday, very low 1s crushed. And I believe reality should be the way to go for FOX on that night, they aren't wise to counter-program CBS comedies either. Not to mention that avoiding putting Masterchef Jr. against Survivor is an added bonus too.

Spot said...

The biggest question is if Fox will have 1 or 2 comedy blocks Mon-Thu next season. They have room for it if those would be female oriented comedies, then Tuesday 8 PM, nice fit with New Girl / Mindy. If male oriented, then Thursday 9 PM as nice counterprogramming to Scandal / Blacklist.
I think they will have that additional block, because otherwise Bordertown would be their only fall comedy premiere.

So we have:
2 comedy blocks
MasterChef Junior somewhere 8 PM + cheap reality Fri 8 PM
Monday is Gotham + new drama (Minority Report ?)
Another 2 hours are Empire and Scream Queens.

Then there's no room for Bones but Friday 9 PM. And if they want 3rd new drama, then Fox could push Sleepy Hollow to midseason, especially if they cancel The Following.

Spot said...

Both Empire and American Idol have been adjusted up.

That's it: Empire is officially the highest rated premiere of the season, tied with How to Get Away with Murder. Insane!!!

Spot said...

Well, I would prefer Masterchef Jr. in an 8 PM slot as it does attract family audiences

Spot said...

I think another comedy block is unlikely. I think is more likely that they send Mindy to Fridays a la Raising Hope if they really want to launch another female comedy and maybe even push New Girl to the bottom of the hour. And this fall they only launched one comedy so it's not inconceivable that they do the same again next year. If Last Man on Earth hits, then yes, they will probably expand, but other than that I doubt.

I also don't see Sleepy Hollow going midseason. Two reasons 1) It would be off the air for one year and a half so I think it would even worse and 2) If Empire's numbers prove anything, is that FOX might be better off launching dramas on midseason.

I think it will be Gotham+Sleepy Hollow+Empire+Bones+1 Comedy Hour+2 New Dramas+1 Ramsay Hour on Monday-Thursday.

Spot said...

They can do Masterchef Jr./Bones on Thursdays, don't see a problem with that. I think is kind of a wash, but maybe Bones benefits a bit.

Spot said...

Also impressive premiere from Galavant.

Spot said...

It seems like most shows skew older since some of them hit viewership highs too.


The real test is in when DST arrives, then the ratings steady performance in thw winter takes a hit.

Spot said...

2 Broke Girls and NCIS LA also tied their season highs, while Scorpion and Gotham had their best ratings since October. New Girl, MasteChef Junior, NCIS and NCIS NO also did very well.

Spot said...

That would be better. Masterchef Jr. still has the potential for a multiyear run right now, but Bones has 1 season left. It should be the one fighting Scandal and The Blacklist

Spot said...

Bones = low rated veteran, already in syndication = no need for it to take Mon-Thu slot = goes to Friday 9 PM.

Sleepy Hollow = low rated veteran that will never reach 88 episodes = it goes to either bad Thursday 9 PM timeslot, either to midseason.
It goes to midseason if Fox wants *both* 2 comedy blocks Mon-Thu and 3 new dramas. Which they maybe don't want, but I don't see why they wouldn't do it if they like their pilots. And new bosses probably will more like pilots they picked than "Reilly's shows".

Spot said...

Empire held all of its demo in the half hours, 3.7/3.7. Isn't that a good sign that it should be much steadier than Resurrection?

Spot said...

That's actually a pretty good pairing of Bones/MasterChef. I remember Kitchen Nightmares used to do really well against powerhouses Greys Anatomy, CSI and The Office back in 2007-2008.

Spot said...

Comedy is in decline right now, I don't see why FOX, which has the fewest amount of hours to program, should be the only network with 4 hours of comedy, it doesn't make sense to me. Again, if LMOE hits, then I see them trying it, but otherwise I think is a long shot and I don't think they should do it.

As for Bones, it's not about it remaining on a weekday but about me thinking that FOX still isn't in shape of launching a proper attack on Thursdays for the fall. That's why I think filler there would be more appropriate, which Bones qualify. Male comedy there has two problems: 1) CBS comedy, lead by the big bang theory (I know it is down, but not out) and 2) TNF (not just for the first 6 weeks in which it rates higher due to CBS' simulcast but also for the entire fall).

For Sleepy Hollow, I am also not suggesting it goes to Wednesdays at 8 for the sake of the show. I think FOX as a whole would be better off with that arrangement since it would minimize the damage of that show, fill in a filler slot (it will be taken over by Idol anyway) and allow them to counterprogram with reality one of the Thursday hours.

Spot said...

According to TVBTN, NCIS: LA is adjusted in finals to 2.0, even better, straight out season high.

Spot said...

No disagreements there. I might budge if NBC puts reality Thursdays at 8 though, but I am not sure how likely that is. One could also argue that TBBT is a bigger threat for Masterchef Jr. than Scandal and Blacklist. But like I said, no disagreements there, I think it's kind of a wash.

Spot said...

That's a great performance for LA. Wonder how much of that was due to CBS's overall bigger strength and how much was due to Castle's absence.

Spot said...

LA adjusted up to a 2.0, which is a season high

Spot said...

I don't have data about Resurrection's halves, maybe someone can help out.

But in any case, I wasn't suggesting it would go the same way. Like I said, I think the type of rejection Resurrection got was pretty rare and shouldn't happen again so soon. Yet, I still think it should serve as an example for us not to judge potential of a show based on premiere numbers that seem so "inflated" (for lack of a better word).

Spot said...

The winter actually makes spring drops look even worse than they are people we tend to compare the spring numbers with the winter numbers and not with the fall numbers.

Spot said...

I fully expect MOM to hit a series high tonight

Spot said...

Wow. In the CBS Monday deathslot. Just wow.

Spot said...

You are seriously suggesting network that struggles as much would air just 2.5 hours of new programming in fall? Screen Screams (already ordered to series) , Bordertown (pushed from Reilly's development cycle), and new drama at Mon 9 PM (the only one out of 2 dozens or so pilots they'll order soon).

I think new regimes plans completely opposite, as much new shows as possible. I think they will order this:
3 new dramas (including Scream Queens)
3 new comedies (including Bordertown)
1 new reality - for Fri 8 PM if low-profile, but for Thu 8 PM if high-profile with MasterChef Junior back to Fri 8 PM then.

Spot said...

Resurrection grew across it's half-hours.

Spot said...

If memory serves, Resurrection grew across it's half-hours.

Spot said...

The halves are: 3.6/3.7

Spot said...

Well, there you go then. Thanks.

Spot said...

I went to great lengths to find it! LOL

Spot said...

I understand your argument. You may have a point, I hadn't thought about it that way. However, I still don't think they will premiere 4.5 hours of new programming again on weeknights, I don't think they can promote all that and they've probably learned that too this year. Also, for the number of pilot argument, I would say that FOX can phase out their premieres throughout the season.



Maybe Bones really ends up on a Friday, but I don't think Sleepy Hollow does. Maybe this:
Monday: Gotham | New Drama
Tuesday: Scream Queens | New Comedy | New Girl
Wednesday: New Drama | Empire (or the way around)
Thursday: Masterchef Jr. | Sleepy Hollow

Friday: Bones | The Mindy Project x2

Sunday: The Simpsons | B99 | Family Guy | New Comedy


Here you have 4 hours of new programming, aka 40% of FOX's airtime on weekdays. Pretty close to the 45% they had this year but 1)Fox actually stands a chance of finishing the season in better shape than they did last Spring and 2)This fall they had one too much new stuff at the same time.


Side note: They might just cancel Bones, I am not sure the show can still be lucrative on Friday, but we shall see.

Spot said...

Ahah thanks ;)

Spot said...

Bones authors said they'll incorporate Deschanel's pregnancy into next season. I doubt they would say it if there was no hint from Fox about renewal. That's why i count it renewed.

This your schedule is much better.
I like:
1. Bones on Friday - from there it can easily replace failure if needed,
2. Low priortiy Sleepy Hollow not taking up Wednesday slot.
3. Four nights dramas are at 8 PM.

I don't like:
1. Mindy on Friday. It's not yet that low. But it might collapse in spring, and then Friday would be logical. So OK.
2. Empire on 9 PM. One of their strongest players should be at Wed 8 PM leading into new drama.

Spot said...

I think next year Fox should schedule Idol as 2 hours on Thursday. In most of the weeks, if not all except maybe for premiere and final week. If they renew Idol at all, but let's put that aside until we'll have more data points.
I see 4 reasons for it. And while perhaps none of those reasons is strong enough for itself, I think all them combined more than justify such scheduling. Reasons:

1. I believe Dancing with the Stars stopped bleeding less because of shrinking to 2 hours, and more because of shrinking to one night. Meaning, many people weren't ready to invest 2 nights into aging reality show, but are willing to watch DWTS now that it's one night only. Looking at that yesterday's 3.2 ratings, which is ugly 30% down y2y, and it wouldn't be so much if it was 2-hours edition... perhaps DWTS recipe would do good to Idol too.

2. Empire suddenly looks like a show capable to anchor Wednesday night for the entire season. So, let it lead into new show in the fall. If that newbie rates good, leave it there. If not, then simply try something else at Wed 9 PM in midseason.

3. With all other big 3 now being all-scripted on Thursday night, it's not bad idea to go all-unscripted there.

4. If Idol would air on Thursday only, Fox wouldn't need to reshuffle two weekdays' schedules in midseason as they're doing for years.

Spot said...

Notable questions: Will Idol average below a 2 this season?
Will Empire suffer the fate of other high-premiering Fox dramas of late (The Following, Sleepy Hollow, etc)?

Spot said...

Another point I forgot to add but that I like about this schedule is that it could very easily accommodate Idol. They can simply schedule it on Thursdays for two hours since Sleepy Hollow and Masterchef Jr. would be over anyway (they can still do Wednesday editions in some weeks to render Empire and new drama repeats, but it works). Sleepy Hollow might need a jump start, like early September, to fit all episodes until December but I think it would be doable.

As for your dislikes:
1. I am not certain about Mindy on Friday either. I think this is worth it if they really have a female skewing comedy they like. But this also depends on what NBC does with Tuesdays. I hate launching female comedies against the voice, but there is no other logical place (the voice will almost certainly be two hours in early fall). In any case, even if Mindy were to go to Fridays, I would launch it in November only in case it is needed to replace the Tuesday newbie.

2. I wrote (or the other way around) just because of that. I agree it probably makes more sense the other way around.

3. You've had that debate before and you have more problems with that than I have. In FOX's case there is even one additional argument as to why that shouldn't matter which is that they don't program 10pm, so the only way to use dramas as lead-ins are at 8pm. And Gotham and Empire will probably be their best lead-ins so they must be at 8. Bones will probably be the best lead-in they can have for Fridays so I also think it should be at 8, but I don't feel strongly about it anyway. As for the third new drama (whether it is Scream Queens or something else), there is a comedy hour at 9pm and I see no reason for that to move, so the only other spot available is an 8pm one, it must go there.

Spot said...

1. Yes. Sadly, but I expect season average to be a bit south of 2.0. It's very expensive show, so 1.8 or 1.9 would put it on the bubble. I'd still expect they renew it with that average, but to announce next season as final.

2. No. But only if they schedule Season 2 of Empire for fall. If they do same stupid long hiatus as for The Following, and Sleepy Hollow, then probably yes.

Spot said...

Yes, while Empire is 100% sure renewal, there's no chance it will stay above 3.0 for entire season. Yes, it could drop a lot early (though I doubt as much as Resurrection, or SHIELD did), and it could finish much less night-anchor worthy than it looks now. But I still believe it's likely it will be a genuine hit - those half-hours are what makes me think so.

Spot said...

Idol should benefit from a Wednesday-only schedule as the season goes on since Wednesday is one of the few nights that is pretty steady-as-it-goes for the rest of the season. Other nights have Events (awards shows, championship games), high-profile returnees or debuts (The Voice, Dancing with the Stars, TGIT, A.D.), heavy cable competition (Game of Thrones, The Walking Dead), or some amalgamation of the above (the NFL Draft) that mucks up other nights for the some if not all of the broadcast nets. At the very least, the y2y trend should get better without the Olympics around to steamroll Idol.

Empire's debut is impressive and probably means that it'd have to fall faster than Resurrection's season 1 to not earn a renewal. The talent may be an issue as I don't know if Terrence Howard as a similar deal as Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder) or Kevin Bacon (The Following), but Fox is not in any kind of shape to let an overperforming show be absent from its schedule for an extended period of time.

Spot said...

Half hours are worthless for this type of prognosis I think. Resurrection even grew in its halves during premiere night actually, as I was told today. And I legitimately think Resurrection would have been cancelled had they done 13 episodes. The 8 limitation was what saved them because the bleeding stopped at still an okayish level on the 7th episode and then they had the finale bump.

But I don't think the same will happen with Empire. Like I said, Resurrection was a pretty rare case of pure rejection, those don't happen that often, so it should be fine. I would still wage my bets and keep renewal prognosis at 80% since I've learned not to go higher than that before the second episode, but I understand why you have 100%.

Spot said...

Oh I did forget the Olympics as a factor. Last year's y2y drop was -32%; repeating that would give us 1.82. The year before, -27%; before that, -32%. It'd need a -25% or smaller drop to get a 2 avg, which I'm not seeing.

Spot said...

"The Sun Never Sets On The FOX Empire"? Or maybe the better "Empire Strikes Back"

Spot said...

Bob's, the new Cleveland Show that outlived Cleveland Show.

Spot said...

Thanks. Great news for me, I'm a big fan.

Funny, only few minutes ago i said (in comment here) Fox will probably cancel it. LOL, I should check news first.

Spot said...

Previously, I thought Scream Queens and Sleepy Hollow could have worked together on Wednesday. They're both limited, and while they might have to premiere earlier if they plan to bring Idol back for early January again, there won't be any leftovers to rid of. But then Empire happened. And now I have no idea. Empire might stay as a Wednesday anchor, and unless Howard or Henson want to go the Viola Davis or Kevin Bacon route, it'll probably be a 22-ep series. I'm also not a fan of moving SQ to Tuesdays. I'm against dramas leading into comedies. I find that people are able to get into laughing first, then the serious stuff. Of course, my point is mute if Scream Queens is more Glee than American Horror Story. Implying though Empire continues to do well and Scream Queens is on the fall schedule tho. ;)

Spot said...

I expect perhaps a multiyear renewal at the TCA's later this month, but it's just a hunch

Spot said...

I get the feeling that the syndication deal w/ Adult Swim is rather rich.

Spot said...

That's great for you as a fan (show's not for me, tried it many times), but I'm still surprised. It didn't have a compelling ratings reason to return. I thought it did when it was pulling a 1.5 at 7:30, but it went sub 1 at 9 against the Walking Dead!

Spot said...

I think they want to restore all-animation Sunday. But not next season already, gradually instead. And not at any cost, only if new animated comedies would work.

As for 4 comedies blocks, I admit it doesn't seem logical at first. But look at it this way: Mindy's next season is the last one, and for Brooklyn 9-9 it will be penultimate season. New Girl probably also has only 2 seasons (after this one) left in it. And Bob's Burgers getting 22 more episodes more is minor miracle, but it won't last long with this ratings either.
Meaning, they will need many comedies for Fall 2016-17. Then they absolutely need to start trolling for gold already in Fall 2015-16. Combine that with change of regime, and possibility that Bordertown will flop = I really expect them to premiere 3 new comedies next fall (including Bordertown), and 2 at least. Which is easier said than done, because of scheduling problems, that much I agree with you.

Spot said...

I'm curious how much less the cast is paid compared to Simpsons/Family Guy. The show has some well know voices, but being a bubble show for 2 years and never being much of a ratings winner probably kept costs down. The main guy probably doesn't get paid much for Archer

Spot said...

Yes, I expected it will be cancelled after Season 5, too.
Low ratings + they need space to launch some new comedies.

Damn, now I have no idea where Fox will launch new comedies.
Tuesday 8 PM is a possibility, but for female oriented problem is The Voice, and for male oriented problem is they're not compatible with New Girl / Mindy block.
Thursday 9 PM is a possibility, but for male oriented problem is TNF on CBS, and for female oriented problem is TGIT.
Sunday: 3 animated are renewed now + B99 is 99% sure - there's room for one new comedy only.

Back to the drawing board.

Spot said...

Reported to be just $500k/ep, but it is also on Netflix.

Spot said...

Bob's Burgers' ratings are a little weird because of all of the strange situations the show has been in. But generally without help it seems capable of pulling mid-1s, and with a decent lead-in its capable of doing low-2s. That's better than most FOX shows right now, so I think the renewal makes sense.

Spot said...

I get your reasoning but I think you may be a bit too extreme in some cases. B99 is the most obvious to me. I don't think the network would have bothered putting it on its best (or second best, you opinion may vary) comedy slot if they just wanted a carry to syndication type of thing. Putting a comedy on a slot like this is an indication that they are trying to make it a long term player for them I think. Much like The Goldbergs and Mom. It could very well be that it ends up cancelled after its forth season but right now I don't think FOX is thinking that way, I think they are trying to build it up and establish it more.

Regardless, even if it's cancelled, following your scenario, they would get to Fall 2018-2019 with The Simpsons and Family Guy still around, at least. They would need 4 other comedies for the 3 hours of comedies but until then they would have add, at the very least, the following opportunities: 2 this midseason (Weird Loners, Last Man on Earth), 2 next fall (one on Sunday, one on Tuesday), presumably another two the other fall. And I am 100% sure they would try out midseason comedies as well in the meantime. So you would still get plenty of chances to develop comedies without filling your schedule with comedies just because in a few years they might not have many. Besides, I am not even sure networks think that far in advance. I believe they consider the year after when making a fall schedule, but more than that? Meh, I've never actually seen much of an indication of that

Spot said...

Does anyone know values of the Netflix deals? I am curious to see the range.

Spot said...

Not doubting you but why do you say Idol is very expensive? The judges? I was thinking it could become a league average player for them a la DWTS for ABC in the long run but not if the costs are as prohibitive as you make them sound

Spot said...

Just found out that Shonda Rhimes had tweeted her support for Empire. It's just too funny that the only show I've seen her supporting the entire season (apart from her own, obviously) is such a hit. Maybe I should start considering her even more influential on TV than she already is.

Spot said...

This is the sixth season, so they'll still be on the contracts they signed in the first year. I doubt there's any big contracts involved, and voice acting tends to be quite lucrative given relatively small time commitment.


There's various ways to read the tea-leaves, but my guess is that this is the new network heads trying to buy some goodwill. This is somewhat reminiscent of one of Greenblatt's first moves as NBC head, which was to renew the bubble comedies Parks and Community (before spending the next few years desperately trying to cancel them both).


It certainly doesn't hurt that it's probably profitable for them and Fox has much bigger problems.

Spot said...

Rhonda gets what Shonda wants.

Spot said...

Lol if that ever happens...

Spot said...

We can wait for Empire to go over a 4, lol.

Spot said...

License. Was $100 million per season. Perhaps they lowered it in last few seasons as ratings were dropping, let's say for 30% a year. But there's only so much times they can lower license for 30%. Eventually it comes to the level where license owner gives show practically for peanuts, while Fox has no guarantee it will make any profit of it (because new season could see yet another big ratings drop, and trend over years hints it would).

That's exactly why last fall I was sure Fox will cancel The X-Factor. License was $75 million, and ratings were around 40% down, after 30% down season ago. If Cowell would lower license fee according to ratings average, then he would work for nothing. And if he wouldn't lower it, then with another 30% drop ratings (which was likely), Fox would actually be in red with the show. There was no grounds to start renewal negotiations at all.

Spot said...

That's on nights with football on Fox in late afternoon.
Bob was at 0.9 and 1.0 already this fall, with many sub 1.0 ratings last spring (though in awful 7 PM slot thanks to that Cosmos series).

But you're right, Fox is not dumb to renew something they're losing money on. Syndication deal James mentioned surely helps. I admit I've forgotten about it. Googleing says Adult Swim pays half a million per episode from :
http://deadline.com/2013/05/adult-swim-acquires-off-network-rights-to-bobs-burgers-487669/

Let's say it's worth half a rating point (and it is, and maybe is even a bit more). So even if Bob drops 20% y2y to as low as 1.2 average, we can count it as 1.7+ , which is enough on today's poor Fox.

And on top of that, it has good M18-34 ratings coveted by advertisers, so it gets better ad rates than A18-49 would suggest. I totally underestimated Bob's chances. My bad.

Spot said...

I wouldn't say "just", because we're not talking about some expensive drama here. I might be wrong, but I think those animated series cost just $1-1.5 million per episode. Depending on cast, so The SImpsons on the high end of that range, and Bob's Burgers probably close to the lower end, as relatively new series.
So it maybe covers as much as 50% of production cost, while for drama it would be only something like 15%.

Spot said...

TBBT looks really low, having lost a full tenth from last year's episode. The final ratings just mitigate this, somehow.

Spot said...

Mom looks solid, CBS is Voicing/Idoling TBBT.


Idol's growth across the night is a sign of help, but it's time to trim it down to two nights next season.


Thursdays are quite uninteresting without TGIT and NBC's upcoming hail mary attempt TGFB (and Backstrom, of course, how could I forget it?).

Spot said...

It was still up from most of its thursday episodes this year but its definitely starting to fade.

Spot said...

Happy for Mom, hope it won't adjust down or if it does, not a big one

That's solid for Idol. The show needs to have interesting semi finalists though so they can hang on

Spot said...

Idol's half-hour growth across the night feels very much linked with how CBS' sitcoms got weaker throughout the night. But as Spot's mentioned before, 2-hour editions of reality shows are more likely to show their value in that second hour.

Elementary is starting to mirror Hawaii Five-O's third season ratings trajectory: horrific start but picking up a little steam to be less horrifying as the season goes on. It just has a lower floor/ceiling than Five-O. Though don't take this as me saying that if/when Elementary moves next season it'll surprisingly hold up and give new life to whatever night it shifts to.

The Taste has at least bounced back to its debut level. And though I like that ABC is rerunning HTGAYM to keep it visible, part of me wishes ABC would go Shark Tank (R) | The Taste.

Spot said...

About Elementary, this could be true if it replaces Five-O itself, but as you said, the floor/ceiling is lower as H-50, a show that dropped more than 30% when moved to friday, so, CBS is probably going to leave it to die on sundays at 10.

Spot said...

I think LA is already following 5-0's trajectory better this season. Premiered to a series low, against a strong Voice fueled NBC drama and Castle, but built up some steam in the winter (LA just hit a 2.0). I mean Elementary could almost pull a 2.0 around this time last year, so hitting a still isn't great trajectory wise

Spot said...

Apparently, ABC has gradually started promoting The Whispers.
Any thoughts on where it might end up?

Spot said...

Probably tuesdays at 10.


Forever is, if I'm not mistaken, the ABC show with most episodes aired, they can run it repeat free and burn the final episodes on saturdays.

Spot said...

I agree Elementary would be a trainwreck anywhere they put it next season, but I *could* see it holding up even better than 5-0. Example, 5-0 had really good, albeit incompatible, lead ins on Monday. Getting as high as a 3.7 (175 Plus!). It's best Friday lead in from Undercover Boss was a 1.8 (96 Plus). Even if Boss is a good Friday lead in, still a big downgrade. Elementary's best lead in this season has been a 1.7 (100 Plus). Even if Boss can only pull a 70 Plus next season, it may be just as good of slot. However, if hey insist on having Amazing Race in the fall, my whole comment is now pointless

Spot said...

Also only ABC drama not from ABC studios, so it could well be a Saturday burnoff. I would prefer a hiatus and then a summer integration with say Rookie Blue.

Spot said...

NCIS: LA endured a timeslot move for the first time, into a later hour to boot, and is in its sixth season. Elementary, like Five-O, is in its same timeslot, in its third season, and has been facing the buzziest freshman drama (The Blacklist vs. HTGAWM). But I get your argument.

Spot said...

It's ability to spike has been lessened. First January episodes by season:
January 3, 2013: 6.1
January 2, 2014: 5.4
January 8, 2015: 4.5

Spot said...

Weird. But didn't TBBT hit 6's just last year too?

Spot said...

Unnofficial The Question - cellar dweller edition:


Glee: over/under 0.85

Spot said...

I haven't seen any ads for it yet. But this could be a Black Box situation: gradually promoting the show with minimal detail (no central conceit given, no timeslot), but "ramps" it up once the network decides where its going.


Tuesday does feel the most likely if Fresh off the Boat is too adrift at 8:00 or if Forever runs out its order sooner. If not that, then there are some possibilities if American Crime or Secrets & Lies stumble. If ABC's goal is not to put this show in the summer, then they'd really have to zag (pulling Nashville, the Friday comedy block, or 20/20).

Spot said...

The second-half of its one-hour season premiere hit a 6.1; the first-half hit a 5.5.

Spot said...

A 6.1 on September 26th, 2013 at a special 8:30 airing. It peaked at a 5.7 in January

Spot said...

In what order would you put Elementary, Hawaii Five-O, and Blue Bloods on Fridays, if CBS were to go tri-drama there next season?

This assumes that Blue Bloods gets a renewal. It's likely to happen because I think in CBS' mind the bird-in-the-hand argument is stronger on Fridays than Sundays (a possible explanation of why CSI: NY got the renewal over CSI: Miami), but CBS has shown to be capable of a Friday Surprise like canning both Ghost Whisperer and Numbers in the same season.

Spot said...

Apparently, the promo has been new cast photos and a revised pilot being set for review.

Spot said...

Since return TBBT is constantly almost 20% down y2y. If that rend continues,
it will be around 4.0 by the time The Odd Couple premieres (as it's in
mid 4s now in its usually strong January), and in mid 3s towards the end
of season. It still would be a megahit, but I doubt CBS would be
happy with those ratings.
Anyway, it means the bar for The Odd Couple is
set pretty low - I'm sure it would be renewed if it can settle at around 2.0
ratings. Because by April it probably is gonna mean 60%-ish retention Mom is having
now. I think TOC would be renewed even if few episodes late in the season would rate less than 2.0.

However, from scheduling point it would be better for CBS if TOC retention wouldn't actually be 60%. With 70% retention (2.5ish ratings) they would have their anchor for Thursday 9 PM in next fall schedule (in a lack of better solution, yes). While with 50% retention (1.5ish ratings out of TBBT) they would simply cancel The Odd Couple.
Murphy's Law says TOC will have 2.0ish ratings, thus forcing CBS to schedule Thu 9PM hour in the fall with Mom and TOC (in some order), with two shows not strong enough to adequately anchor the hour, yet strong enough to be renewed.

Spot said...

I would go 5-0, Elementary, Blue Bloods. 5-0 is more action based and set in Hawaii. Elementary and Blue Bloods are more more character and case based and both set in New York.

Spot said...

Over. FOX seems to have a fantastic week.

Spot said...

Over.

After Empire premiere, I said to myself: "Wow, Fox is having really great week, save for the Mindy. What's next, Glee and World's Funniest Fails actually premiering at higher than 1.0 A18-49?"

For that reason only, over.

Spot said...

I think you are being a little to quick to dismiss Big Bang. It had a 5.4 last year in its first January outing, and was getting as high as a 5.3 in the first week of March.

Spot said...

That 5.3 came between 5.0 and two 4.9s. I said "if that trend continues", and if current trend indeed continues, it will be at around 4.0 in March, and even lower in April.

Spot said...

Ugh. Glee ended the season so horribly. But how much was natural, how much was accelerated by facing The Voice, and how much was wrapped in Fox's general malaise?


I'm sure that Glee got some decent promo during Idol's 2 night debut. But is there enough of the young female demo that was the dramedy's bread and butter at home on Fridays to hit this unofficial line? Is there enough of a demo audience left, period, after accounting for relative heavyweights Undercover Boss and Shark Tank? Is The Mindy Project going to be Fox's only real black mark across this whole week? I think the answer to all of these questions is, "No."


Under.

Spot said...

Adult Swim got it for a steal then, at least if my memories of its syndication ratings are correct.

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