tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post4010231643070885052..comments2023-09-30T09:11:03.048-04:00Comments on SpottedRatings.com: Spotted Ratings, Sunday 1/18/15Spothttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comBlogger96125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-52518982123877572462015-01-21T09:43:03.288-05:002015-01-21T09:43:03.288-05:00Wrong. Supernatural isn't so magical as you th...Wrong. Supernatural isn't so magical as you think. Otherwise it wouldn't be down 11% y2y, despite having the strongest lead-in in The CW history, The Flash.<br /><br />Additionally, you're looking at it too simplistic. Move to Monday or Thursday wouldn't be some lateral move. Instead of male oriented show (Arrow), SPN would be paired with girly show. It's lead-in would be weaker after move, and it would be on night with more competitiom. Only positive thing would be it wouldn't air in SHIELD timeslot anymore.<br /><br />So there you have it, that's rational explanation why it would lose around 3 tenths, which is quite opposite of your "Supernatural is unicorn" theory.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-1114193595641759502015-01-21T09:21:51.929-05:002015-01-21T09:21:51.929-05:00Probably desperation on their part. All their new...Probably desperation on their part. All their new comedies were bombing hard and AAB fell pretty hard too.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-19529316067507098182015-01-21T09:19:13.781-05:002015-01-21T09:19:13.781-05:00Pretty much, The Originals was always going to fal...Pretty much, The Originals was always going to fall no matter what in terms of seasonal decline no matter where it was.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-7464036255651333412015-01-21T09:18:02.481-05:002015-01-21T09:18:02.481-05:00You forget that there was more hype for it being a...You forget that there was more hype for it being a TVD spin off and it was a fresh new show at the time.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-16428279766379621742015-01-21T09:15:55.070-05:002015-01-21T09:15:55.070-05:00Exactly, Supernatural has its own audience, it sur...Exactly, Supernatural has its own audience, it survived Fridays and was thankfully moved off of it. Clearly it's stronger than The Originals which is only a 2nd season show.<br />Either way both shows got renewed and that's all that matters.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-79877347804589247972015-01-21T09:15:30.454-05:002015-01-21T09:15:30.454-05:00Nice theories there. Probably the best ones I'...Nice theories there. Probably the best ones I've heard about this topic, so kuddos to you.<br /><br />I think some of the decisions are still puzzling though. For instance, why do you think CBS ordered the extra episode? Surely they didn't do it for PR purposes.. They must know that ordering 1 extra episode is seen almost as bad as cancelling a show. They also didn't do it for schedule purposes since they had no room for it (I don't believe they just decided to order it before seeing if they were going to need it as well). It's strange, isn't it?<br /><br />There are also other situations in which I am at a loss. I feel that in most cases, networks would pull the shows if repeats were to do better. Obviously this doesn't apply to CBS since TBBT repeats are the second highest rated comedy they have (behind TBBT originals themselves) so everything would be pulled, but why didn't NBC pull the Thursday comedies of Blacklist reruns or 2 hour TBL? It's strange. And like you said, although I really like your theory, I am sure A to Z has long ago crossed that threshold from the upfronts that you refer. Demand could be a reason but that would probably mean that NBC Thursday had gotten so toxic that advertisers really weren't bothering placing ads there anymore (in a pre blacklist era anyway) regardless of it was with comedy losers, repeats or reality shows.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-1798197917903846792015-01-21T09:14:04.296-05:002015-01-21T09:14:04.296-05:00Except Supernatural is 1 of the few shows that can...Except Supernatural is 1 of the few shows that can move just about anywhere, it makes the most sense to move it to 1 of the weaker time slots so they can use either of the post Flash/Arrow time slots instead of just dumping a new show in like that.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-32128317500268957272015-01-21T09:11:05.826-05:002015-01-21T09:11:05.826-05:00It was apples and oranges because that's the u...It was apples and oranges because that's the usual trend shows have. I know we make the y2y comparisons that way but in terms of expectations, it's unrealistic to expect serialized shows to get back to the previous fall ratings. The usual trend (especially sohpmore shows that had early episodes in the opening months of their runs higher than usual) is for shows to come back to the level in which they left the previous spring, not the previous fall. Procedurals and comedies don't follow this pattern and obviously there are exceptions within the serialized shows universe as well, but as a whole, I think it's this way.<br /><br />I don't disagree with you looking at W18-34 for The Originals.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-90624433191193640032015-01-21T08:14:25.891-05:002015-01-21T08:14:25.891-05:00My theory was they pull losers off schedule when r...My theory was they pull losers off schedule when ratings fall dangerously close to 50% of upfront rating guarantees. Like, if they promised The McCarthys ratings of 2.4 at upfronts, they would pull it at 1.2 surely, but likely already at 1.3-1.4 in anticipation of it soon to be 1.2. Because when shows misses to reach upfront guarantees, network must do make-goods by giving advertiser ad space in other network's show. And at point when ratings are at some threshold, let's say around 60% of guarantees, amount of make-goods to become too much of a problem for network.<br /><br />But when I tested theory, it doesn't apply always. Sometimes it's clear. For example, no network will premiere backup during holiday season (late November / December), they rather let loser airs, than replacement being often off the air (due to holidays) so early in the run. Other clear case is when they already announced timeslot's new occupant for the midseason - network surely won't bother with putting new show in timeslot for just few weeks, in timeslot air either losers (NBC Thu 9 PM), either repeats/specials (ABC Tue 8 PM).<br /><br />But even excluding those cases, theory doesn't work always. So now I'm thinking it's also connected with scatter market, that it depends on how big is demand for ads. In this case, maybe there wasn't much demand for CBS ads in Dec/Jan, so they aired McCarthys. But now demand increased, so CBS yanks The McCarthys. Reason: it frees some of their ads inventory that otherwise would be used as make-goods for The McCarthys weak ratings.<br />But that's just theory, I might be completely wrong.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-89130728638714295862015-01-21T07:41:24.516-05:002015-01-21T07:41:24.516-05:00Last season after 10 episodes The Originals was at...Last season after 10 episodes The Originals was at 1.24 W18-34, unexpected hit. This year after 10th episode it's at only 0.71, Jane is less than 1 tenth behind it now. So Originals actually dropped more than 5 tenths (whopping 43%) - but I count 2 tenths as usual somphore slump, and remaining 3 tenths to be cause by moving into much harder timeslot.<br /><br />I don't care about A18-49 ratings for CW shows targeting different audience. It's simple - why would they go extra mile (cut show for young females) if they don't benefit from it? Surely they wouldn't use resources, and actually lose some in A18-49 if that doesn't pay off to them.<br />But since you're comparing apples (Fall 2014-15 ratings) and oranges (Spring 2013-14 ratings) to spin numbers, here are real numbers:<br />Last season after 10 episodes A18-49 was 1.00, and this season is 0.73.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-45559105079472813842015-01-21T07:02:52.890-05:002015-01-21T07:02:52.890-05:00The thing with the 100 is that it will soon get in...The thing with the 100 is that it will soon get into a very strange financial situation. It's exactly the same as Sleepy Hollow on FOX. The shows aren't gangbusters in the ratings so they will probably need to rely more on backend sources of revenue. But for those sources of revenue, number of episodes is very important and the show may become nonviable unless they start producing regular sized seasons. Maybe this is more true in SH's case than The 100's (because CW relies more on Netflix and those deals and less on traditional syndication, as you've pointed out to me before), but still.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-26669512355998292182015-01-21T07:00:51.477-05:002015-01-21T07:00:51.477-05:00The Originals didn't loose nearly as much as y...The Originals didn't loose nearly as much as you are suggesting. Last season, when it returned after the Olympics, it was always on the 0.6-0.8 area. This year, apart from one random 0.5, it has been 0.6-0.7 pretty consistently. It was not to be expected that the show would suddenly return to its fall ratings, even on Tuesday. Sure, the move to Monday accelerated that, but this is the normal thing. Freshman dramas don't recover from spring declines all that well in the next fall (neither veterans for the matter in most cases... in fact, the only CW drama that has significantly improved on its spring numbers is Arrow and who knows how much of that is from the flash).<br /><br />Besides, Supernatural is a 10 year old show, not a one year show. I highly doubt it would loose as much as you are suggesting in the move. Maybe 0.1 or 0.2, that's it. And I think it would help the female drama before it the same way it helped The Originals last year (again, as long as it had some genre elements and wasn't pure soapy like the Virgin or Dixie).Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-65411079573597055402015-01-21T06:56:20.844-05:002015-01-21T06:56:20.844-05:00It's kind of crazy that H50 on Fridays tied LA...It's kind of crazy that H50 on Fridays tied LA. And that it was almost beaten by Blue Bloods as well.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-51739018932253016562015-01-21T06:55:16.676-05:002015-01-21T06:55:16.676-05:00One of these days I would like to understand the t...One of these days I would like to understand the timings for these decisions. It was puzzling when the mccarthys didn't get pulled in December and came back in January and even more when it got that random 1 extra episode ordered for it (why?). And now, less than a month before its expected ending they pull it.<br /><br />Don't misunderstand me: no surprise at all that it was pulled, just why was it that they've decided that today was the best day to do it. Seems arbitrary to me.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-91339081314187230112015-01-21T06:50:31.723-05:002015-01-21T06:50:31.723-05:00It does seem like it.
The Big Bang Theory: CBS&...It does seem like it. <br /><br /><br />The Big Bang Theory: CBS' glue.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-82860345970590010912015-01-21T06:40:44.686-05:002015-01-21T06:40:44.686-05:00No, just that McCarthys is gone, and for 4 weeks i...No, just that McCarthys is gone, and for 4 weeks it'll be Big Bang repeats, since they have a neverending supply.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-4474821851149024362015-01-21T06:14:53.095-05:002015-01-21T06:14:53.095-05:00So, Mom goes at 9?So, Mom goes at 9?Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-85427824655633923542015-01-20T17:28:13.020-05:002015-01-20T17:28:13.020-05:00It is crazy because they have already had LA cross...It is crazy because they have already had LA crossover with Hawaii 5-0 twice and have had a main cast member appear on Scorpion. They did a "CSI Trilogy" before too. It wouldn't be too hard, they can have the story start on LA, continue on NCIS the next night, and conclude on New Orleans.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-53418959138758302832015-01-20T16:09:33.058-05:002015-01-20T16:09:33.058-05:00CBS needs to start cross-overs between the NCIS tr...CBS needs to start cross-overs between the NCIS trios and promo-ing the hell out of them, like NBC does with the Dick Wolf trio. I'm truly baffled that they haven't done one yet. It'd work out nicely because it would occur on consecutive nights, or CBS could even preempt POI for a special NCIS: LA. Either way, it just surprises me because it seems like a very "Moonves" decisionSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-35774956739605185492015-01-20T16:08:22.137-05:002015-01-20T16:08:22.137-05:00No, it wouldn't be better for Supernatural. By...No, it wouldn't be better for Supernatural. By move to tougher nigh Monday it wnightSpothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-80993770192395147872015-01-20T15:40:16.825-05:002015-01-20T15:40:16.825-05:00I was just comparing that to your example, in term...I was just comparing that to your example, in terms of moving to Fridays, not the number of episodes.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-18116969065214685352015-01-20T14:54:34.232-05:002015-01-20T14:54:34.232-05:00That's understandable.That's understandable.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-10075588099642163782015-01-20T14:41:04.520-05:002015-01-20T14:41:04.520-05:00Normally, I would agree.
But January season premie...Normally, I would agree.<br />But January season premiere would already mean 10 months hiatus (and that's only problem I have with moving it to midseason), and you're suggesting 13-14 months hiatus.<br />You gave me crazy idea: maybe 6 to 8 episodes in winter when other shows are on hiatus, and remaining 6-8 in summer?<br />Reign could go that route too. Frankly, by ratings, it deserves dumping to summer the most. But we don't know if they want 22 episodes Reign season because of Netflix. If they want, then Reign must premiere in fall, probably Friday 9 PM where it hurts the least.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-72458101923742424812015-01-20T14:40:52.706-05:002015-01-20T14:40:52.706-05:00Fringe had full seasons under its belt though. I t...Fringe had full seasons under its belt though. I think that will be the difference.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3149153403168306818.post-633174297391657452015-01-20T14:40:00.254-05:002015-01-20T14:40:00.254-05:00You misunderstood me greatly. I built my entire sc...You misunderstood me greatly. I built my entire schedule around the female skewing nights and the fact that I believe they are better off using Supernatural to anchoring one and putting the two vampire shows together on Thursdays. That was everything I built my schedule around.<br /><br />I even said that on Tuesday and Wednesday they could either launch two new male shows if they have them or, if not, then yes, plug in the 100 again. So those were the last considerations I had. It just feels to me that it is easier for the CW right now to handle the male nights than it is the female ones (competitions, lead-ins), so they should put Supernatural there and let the male ones figure themselves out.Spothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01222504847153680060noreply@blogger.com