The Breakdown: Fox Thursday in 2016-17 (Rosewood, MasterChef Junior, Pitch and more!)

It's time for a journey through the Fox Thursday schedule in 2016-17...

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/8/16

FINALS UPDATE: Life in Pieces (1.3) and Thursday Night Football (5.6) adjusted up while Thursday Night Football Pregame (2.2) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:

• Opposite a much weaker Thursday Night Football, the CBS lineup had some upticks, even with The Big Bang Theory (1.7) in repeats. It looks like The Great Indoors (1.5) is going to be yet another one of those shows that looks a lot better after Big Bang repeats than it does after originals, but actually going up by 0.2 from last week seems rather crazy. Mom (1.4) had a small uptick at 9/8c, while Life in Pieces (1.2) was even continued to look a little softer in the late fall. And Pure Genius (1.0) finished out a shockingly decent week for the CBS medical dramas by growing back to its series premiere rating.

• ABC reran holiday specials Toy Story that Time Forgot (0.8) and Shrek the Halls (0.9), each down just a tenth from their Thursday telecasts a year ago. The Great American Baking Show (0.9) was then down a tenth at 9/8c, and ABC tacked on the probable series finale of Notorious (0.5) to absolutely no interest at 10/9c.

• Fox had its second annual Taraji P. Henson holiday special (0.9) in the 8:00 hour. This was way down from last year's 1.5, but Empire was a much hotter show back then, plus the special was actually run in Empire's regular timeslot in 2015. After a slightly improved lead-in, Pitch (0.8) got a much-welcome uptick for its season/series finale.

• The CW rounded out its post-crossover week with Legends of Tomorrow (0.7), which was slightly above its usual 0.6 level. Supernatural (0.6) was even.

• As for Thursday Night Football, the strong matchup between Kansas City and Oakland had a high-3's prelim. That was way down from last week's high 4, but still one of TNF's better broadcast-only prelims of the season. It should adjust into the 5's after finals/NFL Network are included.

Renewology Swings of the Week: The Real O'Neals, Gotham, Once Upon a Time, Pitch

It's time for another edition of Renewology Swings of the Week. Which shows had the best and worst weeks in terms of Renewology odds? These numbers cover Week 11 of the 2016-17 season (November 28-December 4).

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 12/1/16

FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (6.8) and Legends of Tomorrow (1.2) adjusted up while The Great American Baking Show (1.0) and The Great Indoors (1.3) and Thursday Night Football Pregame (2.7) and Supernatural (0.6) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC began its Thursday dramas' hiatus with the return of The Great American Baking Show (1.1/1.0), which was called The Great Holiday Baking Show in its late fall run last year. It was down a bit from last year's 1.2 premiere. It led out of A Charlie Brown Christmas (1.5), which had a rather soft first showing of the year (down big from last year's 2.0 on a Monday).

• NBC took its second crack at Thursday Night Football to hugely improved results, with the ratings magnet Dallas Cowboys vaulting the game to an upper-4's prelim. After finals and the NFL Network simulcast are included, this will likely be the season's biggest TNF game, and maybe even pretty close to last week's Thanksgiving primetime game.

• That may have contributed to a rather soft comedy night on CBS. The Big Bang Theory (3.1) and The Great Indoors (1.4) both matched two weeks ago, but Mom (1.3) and Life in Pieces (1.2) were both weaker. Pure Genius rounded it out with a 0.8, unable to bounce back from its Thanksgiving rating.

• The CW wrapped up the four-night crossover with Legends of Tomorrow (1.1). It fell from the last couple nights but nearly doubled its usual rating and (like The Flash and Arrow) set a new series high in A18-49+. Supernatural (0.7) was pretty normal at 9/8c.

• And after getting hugely inflated ratings for Thanksgiving repeats, Rosewood (0.7) and Pitch (0.7) were back to their normal original numbers this week. It was the last 2016 episode for Rosewood, which will move to Friday after the new year.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/17/16

FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.2) and Thursday Night Football Pregame (2.2) and Thursday Night Football (4.2) adjusted up while The Great Indoors (1.4) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC sent its Thursday bookend dramas Grey's Anatomy (2.1) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.4) off to holiday hiatus with two-tenth upticks. For Grey's, it was really just getting back to a normal rating after last week's drop, but Murder actually made it all the way back to its season high from the premiere in September. Next time we see these shows, they'll again be a part of the official 'TGIT' branding, with Scandal in the middle instead of Notorious (0.9).

• After a solid week three, the CBS comedies turned back downward this time, especially The Big Bang Theory (3.1) and The Great Indoors (1.5) in the 8:00 hour. Mom (1.4) and Life in Pieces (1.4) each shed a tenth in the 9:00 hour, while Pure Genius continued to hold onto a 0.9 at 10:00. As has been tradition in the Thursday Night Football era, all these shows (except for Big Bang) will have to endure an original Thanksgiving telecast next week, and CBS doesn't have the late afternoon game this time.

• NBC had a fairly modest result in its first ever game under the Thursday Night Football banner, with a high-2's prelim that will likely translate to somewhere in the low-4's after finals (when the NFL Network simulcast is included).

• Fox's drama duo of Rosewood (0.7) and Pitch (0.7) stayed stuck at last week's lows. And the CW's Supernatural inched back up to 0.7, leading out of yet another 0.6 from Legends of Tomorrow.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 11/10/16

FINALS UPDATE: Life in Pieces (1.5) adjusted up while Superstore (1.2) and Superstore (1.3) and Chicago Med (1.4) and The Blacklist (1.2) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:

• Thursday was the third and final showdown between CBS and NBC originals this fall, as NBC's half of the Thursday Night Football package begins next week. We'll have to wait for finals on NBC's double-length Superstore (1.3/1.4), Chicago Med (1.5) and The Blacklist (1.4), as they are likely pending downgrades due to preemptions in the local TNF markets.

• On CBS, meanwhile, it was a bounce-back Thursday for The Big Bang Theory (3.4), and that resonated to some degree later in the night as The Great Indoors (1.7), Mom (1.5) and Life in Pieces (1.4) were all on the upswing. It was a new worst-ever retention for Indoors, and it won't get any better after finals, but a moderately encouraging point for Mom after two weak efforts to start the season. At 10/9c, Pure Genius at least kept itself alive in the short term by staying at 0.9.

• ABC had kind of a weird night as Grey's Anatomy (1.9) was surprisingly down on the first Thursday with no DST, but Notorious (0.9) was up and How to Get Away with Murder (1.2) held on.

• Maybe the World Series actually did help Pitch, which crashed to a 0.7 this week. It led out of a low-end effort from Rosewood (0.7).

• And on the CW, Legends of Tomorrow clung to a 0.6 but Supernatural (0.6) inched down.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/13/16

FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (4.7) adjusted up while Notorious (0.8) and Thursday Night Football Pregame (1.9) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:

• Numbers and analysis coming shortly. The CW's Legends of Tomorrow and Supernatural returned. It was week four for the scripted offerings on ABC, NBC and Fox, while CBS had its penultimate Thursday Night Football and Fox Sports 1 was likely in the mix with a winner-take-all division series baseball game.

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 10/6/16

FINALS UPDATE: Thursday Night Football (4.1) and Superstore (1.4) adjusted up while Grey's Anatomy (2.2) and Notorious (0.9) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.2) and Thursday Night Football Pregame (1.8) adjusted down.

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC's faux-TGIT was down a tenth in the first two hours in week three. That made Grey's Anatomy (2.3) the all-star again (beating the year-ago evening in raw numbers for the second straight week!), Notorious (1.0) the weak link but still close to its awful premiere, and How to Get Away with Murder (1.3) still a grower at 10/9c.

• NBC's lineup came back from the brink a bit in its third outing, with The Good Place (1.4) even more clearly solidifying itself as the night's biggest positive. On this night, it was actually NBC's highest-rated series outright! It was sandwiched by Superstore (1.3) and Chicago Med (1.3), which matched last week, while The Blacklist (1.2) got a tenth back at 10/9c.

• On Fox, Rosewood (0.9) continued its attempt at redemption, picking up a tenth for the second straight week since its black hole 0.7 premiere, while Pitch steadied at 1.0 in the 9:00 hour.

• CBS was back in the Thursday Night Football game, with a rather awful 2.5ish prelim from 8:30 to 11:00. It should adjust up more than most of these games since it had two West Coast teams.

First Two Weeks, Pitch

Games still open: Kevin Can Wait (closes today!) | Bull | This Is Us | Speechless | Designated Survivor | Lethal Weapon

WEEK ONE
Rating: 1.1
Lead-in: Rosewood (0.7)
Competition: Notorious (1.1), Thursday Night Football (6.1), Chicago Med (1.4), Supernatural (R) (0.2)

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/29/16

FINALS UPDATE: Superstore (1.3) and The Good Place (1.3) adjusted up while The Big Bang Theory (R) (1.3/1.3) and Kevin Can Wait (R) (1.1/1.1) and Bull (R) (0.8) and The Flash (R) (0.3) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:

• Week two was more hopeful for Pitch (up to 58%) and Notorious (still a long shot but up to 32%) after small/no drops.

• The biggest week-to-week swing in R% to date was Rosewood, shooting all the way up to 66% in week two. It rose when the model expected a drop and had the Fox target come down a lot in the same week, hence an enormous move. Way too much of a swing in my opinion, but if it actually sustains a 0.8, it would admittedly not be that far from the rest of the Fox pack...

• In the prelims, we're taking a likely optimistic guess at what the NFL Network football rating will be (about 10% below the NFLN-only opener last year). If it comes in below that, and/or if the CBS repeats adjust down to reduce competition, these percentages could come down some in finals.

WHAT MATTERS:

• ABC's Notorious (1.1) tried to hang on in week two, preliminarily matching its premiere rating as surrounding programs Grey's Anatomy (2.4) and How to Get Away with Murder (1.3) were both down a touch.

• The Thursday sledding got even tougher on NBC, as Superstore (1.2) took a big hit 8/7c and (at least in the prelims) lost out to even a repeat of The Big Bang Theory (1.4) in their first head-to-head duel. The Good Place (1.2) remained a solid match at 8:30, but the dramas Chicago Med (1.3) and The Blacklist (1.1) dipped further in week two as well.

• On Fox, Rosewood (0.8) woke up a bit from last week's nightmare opening, while Pitch (1.0) held off the fractionals in week two.

• CBS had a one-week break from Thursday Night Football, using it to repeat its Monday comedies (1.4/1.3/1.4/1.2) and Bull (0.9). These numbers will probably come down in finals since the network still had some local preemptions for TNF (which was carried nationally on NFL Network only).

SpotVault - Pitch (Fox) - 2016-17 Ratings

Pitch

Thursdays, 9/8c, Fox

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 9/22/16

FINALS UPDATE: Grey's Anatomy (2.5) and Thursday Night Football (6.1) and Superstore (1.5) and The Good Place (1.4) adjusted up while Notorious (1.1) and The Flash (R) (0.2) and Supernatural (R) (0.2) adjusted down.

RENEWOLOGY:

• The model became more pessimistic along with the ratings on night four of the season, opening Rosewood (28%) and Notorious (25%) as big long-shots to be renewed. (These numbers may still be too high, though.) Subjectively, Pitch actually could be a bit low at 41%, but this formula doesn't weigh lead-ins as heavily as our eyes do sometimes.

WHAT MATTERS:

• After three solid days to open the new season, Premiere Thursday brought plenty of red meat for the broadcast TV schadenfreude crowd. For ABC Thursday, usually the night's defining scripted lineup, it was immediately clear that Scandal is missed. Grey's Anatomy (2.4) was still pretty close to its usual self, down just four tenths from last year's premiere. But its lead-out Notorious (1.2) was a very, very pale imitation of Scandal even on premiere night with measly 50% retention. How to Get Away with Murder (1.4) managed to perk up at 10/9c, but was still at barely half of last year's 2.6 premiere!

• NBC's Thursday revamp may have some potential for long-term improvement, but it was far from a breakout and demonstrated the difficulty of starting over on the night. Sophomores Superstore (1.4) and Chicago Med (1.4) both returned toward the low the end of their season one raw numbers. Superstore's lead-out The Good Place (1.3) had good retention, while The Blacklist (1.3) made a fair transition to the 10/9c hour.

• And Fox had a rough start to its latest remake of Thursday night, as sophomore Rosewood (0.7) opened even lower than all of its without-Empire episodes from last season, and provided the year's first fractional scripted result by a wide margin. New drama Pitch (1.1) built by a lot on its lead-in, and can safely be called a better start than Notorious in context, but the concept clearly didn't bring in interest on a wide scale.

• CBS had its second week of Thursday Night Football; more after finals.

Premiere Thursday Best Case/Worst Case: Notorious, Pitch and more!

Best Case/Worst Case lays out possible scenarios for broadcast primetime TV seasons yet to premiere. This year, it will fully cover the new shows, plus a few brief thoughts on some other shows (usually limited to sophomores and on-the-move/particularly interesting veterans). Feel free to add your predictions on what I don't cover. Here's what's premiering tonight!