Tuesday, August 1, 2017

The Breakdown: Fox Thursday in 2016-17 (Rosewood, MasterChef Junior, Pitch and more!)




It's time for a journey through the Fox Thursday schedule in 2016-17...


fall

Year8:008:309:009:30Avg
2015-16BonesSleepy Hollow71
7963
2016-17RosewoodPitch66 (-7%)
63 (-21%)69 (+11%)
VsAvg-22%+3%-11%
Rank12/169/1610/16

This was a bad night for Fox last fall and it got even worse this year, as Rosewood could not live up to Fox's faith in it as a weeknight anchor. Pitch built noticeably on Rosie in its first few weeks, but beyond that they had very similar high-fractional numbers.

winter

Year8:008:309:009:30Avg
2015-16American Idol Thu150
150150
2016-17Hell's KitchenMy Kitchen Rules81 (-46%)
98 (-35%)63 (-58%)
VsAvg-24%-25%-24%
Rank10/1611/1611/16

The worst comparisons in a bad season for Fox came on Thursday in the winter and early spring, when American Idol was airing for two hours last year. Hell's Kitchen actually did pretty well here, but Idol it was not.

spring

Year8:008:309:009:30Avg
2015-16BonesAmerican Grit53
5946
2016-17MasterChef JuniorKicking and Screaming63 (+20%)
80 (+34%)47 (+2%)
VsAvg-15%-33%-23%
Rank8/1613/1610/16

After the year-ago Idol comparisons came to a merciful end, Fox actually had some improvement in the spring, as MasterChef Junior did OK and its flop reality lead-outs were really no worse than last year's American Grit.

Rating the Ratings

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Rosewood0.50.660.9-51%54flop-42%detail
Hell's Kitchen*1.01.091.3-3%89hit(Fri)+16%detail
MasterChef Junior*0.91.041.3-16%85marginal+0%detail
Pitch0.70.851.169flopdetail
My Kitchen Rules0.70.780.963flopdetail
Kicking and Screaming0.50.590.748flopdetail

Rosewood: From the Empire halo to leading off Thursday to leading off Friday equals a 51% drop. Only American Crime and Supergirl (with a move to CW) dropped more among broadcast returnees. It's not a collapse on the level of Scream Queens and Quantico, which had similar drops to Rosewood in equal or even improved situations. But it clearly got a good bit weaker than last year and it wasn't impressive to begin with. Grade: D-.

Hell's Kitchen: Most of the season aired on Friday, but it had a nice bounce in its move to Thursday in January. It aired much earlier in the season, which accounts for a lot of the reason behind this strong of a hold, but the previous season also had some post-American Idol airings. So getting this much growth still seems pretty impressive. Grade: B+.

MasterChef Junior: The opposite of Hell's: it went from Friday last year to Thursday this year, but much of that is offset by a move to much later in the season. Like with The Amazing Race, I would argue Thursday in the deep spring is not really any easier than Fridays in the fall/winter. Grade: B.

Pitch: This was a rough situation in terms of lead-in, but I still don't think it had a lot of excuse to drop this much post-premiere since it was up against Notorious and aired in the middle of a historically high-rated World Series. Like many other Fox dramas, it wouldn't have been that much of a reach, but that says more about Fox than about Pitch. Grade: D+.

My Kitchen Rules: It didn't do well, but perhaps not so badly to be completely dismissed on the network that renewed American Grit... Grade: D+.

Kicking and Screaming: A notch below My Kitchen Rules, but not a huge notch after accounting for the later placement on the calendar. Grade: D.

The names in this last table link to the shows' War of 18-49 pages. Links with an asterisk(*) have been updated with the new info. Updates to younger shows will come later in the summer.

Here's the now updated Schedules Plus for Fox Thursday.

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