Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Renewology Swings of the Week: The Real O'Neals, Gotham, Once Upon a Time, Pitch


It's time for another edition of Renewology Swings of the Week. Which shows had the best and worst weeks in terms of Renewology odds? These numbers cover Week 11 of the 2016-17 season (November 28-December 4).


Biggest R% Gainers:

Name
A18-49
Last
True
Last
R%
Last
The Real O'Neals1.0-0.10.94-0.0159%+8%
Fresh Off the Boat1.30.01.15+0.0786%+7%
Code Black1.0+0.11.05+0.0640%+6%
Criminal Minds1.40.01.33-0.0184%+5%
Crazy Ex-Girlfriend0.20.00.26-0.0458%+3%
Conviction0.6-0.10.73+0.0030%+3%
Legends of Tomorrow1.2+0.61.09+0.52100%+2%
Designated Survivor1.3+0.11.35+0.1096%+2%
The Last Man on Earth1.1+0.20.97+0.0574%+2%
Chicago Fire1.7+0.21.46+0.0595%+1%

Fresh Off the Boat / The Real O'Neals: ABC's Tuesday 9/8c hour had a nice increase in the formula this week. The Real O'Neals is far from safe, but it has continued to oscillate between the bubble and slightly above the bubble, and probably shouldn't be considered dead just because it got a short extension. It still seems pretty plausible that one of the midseason comedies could step in and do even worse, making it look better by comparison.

Biggest R% Decliners:

Name
A18-49
Last
True
Last
R%
Last
Gotham1.0-0.10.90-0.1673%-11%
Pitch0.70.00.85+0.0225%-9%
Life in Pieces1.2+0.21.23+0.0771%-9%
New Girl0.80.00.90-0.1182%-8%
The Odd Couple0.9-0.10.94-0.1040%-7%
Rosewood0.70.00.87-0.0037%-7%
Once Upon a Time0.9-0.10.79-0.0757%-6%
The Great Indoors1.3+0.20.97-0.1837%-6%
Dr. Ken0.8-0.10.85-0.1353%-5%
Pure Genius0.80.01.02-0.0736%-5%

Gotham: The Fox drama closed its fall run on a rather bad note, tying a season low despite one of the highest-viewed Monday 8:00 hours of the season, plus low-rated special competition on ABC. It was probably hurt more by Supergirl's spike than the formula can account for; Supergirl seemed to get an even bigger jolt from the DC crossover in the male demos than it did overall. It's still a renewal favorite, but it has been a much bigger one for pretty much the whole fall.

Pitch: Fox's baseball drama has now posted three straight 0.7's, which doesn't seem like it's gonna be good enough for a renewal even on Fox. It'll have one more chance to improve this Thursday, and then it's gonna need to hope for some major carnage with the midseason schedule.

Life in Pieces: After raising a lot of eyebrows in a good way with its early-season performance, the CBS sophomore has seemed like a weaker show in the last couple weeks. The 1.0 on Thanksgiving can be brushed off, but it only bounced back to a 1.2 last week, and that was a noticeable step down from what it had been doing early in the fall. The good news for Life in Pieces is that CBS has a couple clearly bigger fish to fry in The Odd Couple and The Great Indoors. But LiP would do well to start looking more like the 1.4ish show from pre-Thanksgiving.

Once Upon a Time: Like Gotham, this can be put in the "Probably should be a bigger favorite" column. Both are probably the kinds of shows that don't bounce as much with post-DST viewing increases as they "should." This didn't really seem like a big problem in previous years of the True formula, but it has been noticeable with those two and a few other shows this year. And the Sunday 8:00 hour might get a bit additionally screwed because it's that period when the NFL overruns are over, Sunday Night Football hasn't started, but viewing is still sky-high anyway. I think it's probably a little safer than 57% but still not quite as out of the woods as people think. If it can't pull meaningfully ahead of Agents of SHIELD, for instance, ABC may opt for the show with more distinctive demo skew.

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