Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Renewology Swings of the Week: The Great Indoors, Code Black, New Girl, Brooklyn Nine-Nine


It's time for another edition of Renewology Swings of the Week. Which shows had the best and worst weeks in terms of Renewology odds? These numbers cover Week 12 of the 2016-17 season (December 5-11).


Biggest R% Gainers:

Name
A18-49
Last
True
Last
R%
Last
The Great Indoors1.5+0.21.31+0.3555%+18%
Brooklyn Nine-Nine1.00.01.06+0.0883%+9%
Code Black1.1+0.11.18+0.1448%+8%
Son of Zorn1.2-0.10.79+0.0632%+7%
Pure Genius1.0+0.21.10+0.0842%+6%
Life in Pieces1.3+0.11.28+0.0476%+5%
The Exorcist0.60.00.89+0.0722%+4%
Dr. Ken0.80.00.97+0.1256%+3%
Blue Bloods1.20.01.35+0.0586%+2%
Madam Secretary0.7-0.31.08+0.0659%+1%

The Great Indoors: The story of The Great Indoors had another major development this week as the show spiked to a 1.5 with a repeat lead-in from The Big Bang Theory (1.7). These post-BBT situations are a part of why the True formula introduced a lead-in "liveness" adjustment, which counts scripted original lead-ins as less than their raw rating since they are heavy on same day DVRing. (In the old formula, it would've been up by well over four tenths in True, as opposed to the still drastic 0.35 above.) Clearly, based on this one case it seems like that adjustment is not enough. But even if you assume there's zero difference in lead-in support from the original and the repeat, the show still went up by two tenths. When in marginal territory, that's a legitimately positive development; a 1.5 with a 1.7 lead-in is nothing to sniff at. Either way, it's clear this will be a show to watch in the new year, when high viewing levels are often a boon to CBS.

Code Black / Pure Genius: Another interesting CBS storyline this week was the surprisingly decent showings from both of the medical dramas, which are trying to scrape their way up from the bottom of the CBS totem pole. Code Black (1.1) was up just a tenth, but amid what was mostly a very sharply down Wednesday evening. And Pure Genius (1.0) surged all the way back to tie its premiere rating. Genius is gonna need even more heat than this to get back in the mix, since it's already been capped at 13 episodes and it takes a lot to reverse that vote of no confidence. But Code Black last year proved that it's possible, beating out Limitless for a second season despite getting a smaller extension.

Biggest R% Decliners:

Name
A18-49
Last
True
Last
R%
Last
New Girl0.80.00.96+0.0673%-9%
Man with a Plan1.2-0.11.06-0.1247%-8%
Conviction0.60.00.79+0.0522%-8%
NCIS: New Orleans1.20.01.20-0.0679%-7%
Frequency0.2-0.10.26+0.019%-6%
Agents of SHIELD0.7-0.10.94-0.0373%-6%
The Real O'Neals0.8-0.20.87-0.0753%-5%
2 Broke Girls1.3-0.11.18-0.1781%-4%
Notorious0.5-0.40.71-0.0920%-3%
The Last Man on Earth0.9-0.20.96-0.0172%-2%

New Girl / Brooklyn Nine-Nine: The Fox Tuesday comedies have taken a bit of a turn in the late fall. Early in the season, New Girl seemed like the stronger show, but it dipped to 0.8 during Thanksgiving week and has never recovered, while Brooklyn Nine-Nine has actually gotten back up to 1.0 the last couple weeks. If it's a close call between the two and only one can survive, one would think Fox would really want to opt for the Fox-owned New Girl. But right now, it's actually becoming less close, in favor of Brooklyn, which could make for a sticky situation. They're about to split up, each serving as a lead-in for The Mick for a chunk of the season, so that may provide a more direct comparison.

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