Tuesday, October 4, 2016

Spotted Ratings, Monday 10/3/16


FINALS UPDATE: The Big Bang Theory (3.5) and The Voice (3.0) adjusted up while Conviction (0.9) and Kevin Can Wait (2.2) and Scorpion (1.5) and Timeless (1.8) and Supergirl (R) (0.2) and Supergirl (R) (0.2) adjusted down.
  • The Conviction downtick took it to just a barely better premiere in True than Notorious, and thus a big renewal underdog at 25%. Timeless is still a slight favorite at 63%. After bigger than expected hits due to the Minneapolis preemption, CBS' Kevin Can Wait was down to 80%, and Scorpion still fine but much less impressive at 77%.

RENEWOLOGY:
  • The model makes Timeless an OK renewal favorite at 70%, and Conviction only a slight underdog at 40%, based on the prelims. It looks like they could both adjust down in finals, so stay tuned.
  • At least based on the prelims, it looks like the formula underestimated Kevin Can Wait's 2.7 on a very high-viewed night last week, as Kevin inched up in True and finally took a big jump in R% (86%). It was also a strong start for Scorpion at 91%.
WHAT MATTERS:
  • Three dramas opened their seasons in the 10/9c hour, and the week one edge went to NBC's Timeless (1.9), leading out of The Voice (2.8/3.1). However, Timeless was a pale imitation of the dramas that have popped in this timeslot in past years, like The Blacklist, Revolution and Blindspot. They were all in the neighborhood of a 200 Plus on premiere night, and Timeless looks more like a 150 at best. It was also well behind where The Good Place (2.3) opened two weeks ago. It could still be a success with this start, but it's clearly not gonna be able to absorb a late-season collapse the way those other shows could.
  • If NBC was 'meh,' ABC was a few notches below that with the start of its own new drama Conviction (1.0), leading out of Dancing with the Stars (1.6/1.7) and dropping steeply at the half (1.1 -> 0.8). It will have to hold up very well just to be a Castle-level performer in the hour, and Castle-level got cancelled last season.
  • On CBS, it was the veteran Scorpion (1.8) returning for one last two-hour drama Monday on CBS. It'll be in just the 10/9c hour going forward, but this was a great start, very close to the Plus of its 2.2 premiere a year ago.
  • Scorpion had a lot of help from Kevin Can Wait (2.4), which still looks really legit at 8:30 out of The Big Bang Theory (3.4). Though it came down from last week, which was probably inflated by debate pre-tune, going from a 2.6 premiere to this 2.4 two weeks later is still an exceptional hold.
  • Fox brought up the rear with a rough week three drop for Gotham (1.0), and Lucifer (1.1) lost a couple tenths in week two after a debate preemption last week.
FULL TABLE (FINALS):

ShowTimeslotRenewology
Name
A18-49
Last
y2y
TLa
Ty2y
R%
Last
True
Last
Dancing with the Stars Fall1.7
-0.1
0%
-35%
0%
1.71-0.01
Conviction0.9
-68%
-25%
25%0.98
ABC:
-46%
-7%
The Big Bang Theory3.5
-0.1
-10%
-3%
-10%
100%+0%3.18+0.04
Kevin Can Wait2.2
-0.5
-19%
+16%
80%+11%1.72-0.04
Scorpion1.5
-32%
-46%
0%
77%1.46
CBS:
-33%
-1%
The Voice Fall3.0
-0.2
-9%
-33%
-9%
2.64+0.14
Timeless1.8
-63%
-25%
63%1.54
NBC:
-44%
-13%
Gotham1.0
-0.2
-33%
-17%
-33%
86%-3%1.13-0.01
Lucifer1.1
-0.2
-39%
+57%
82%-2%1.14-0.18
Fox:
-30%
-5%
Supergirl (R)0.2
0%
-50%
0.30
Supergirl (R)0.2
-33%
-33%
0.28
CW:
-20%
-43%
All:
-39%
-9%
Monday Night Football4.65
+1.55
-11%

The full table can be sorted by clicking any of the category names at the top. Hover over 'Last', 'y2y' and timeslot numbers for more information on the previous episode(s) being compared.


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