- The Conviction downtick took it to just a barely better premiere in True than Notorious, and thus a big renewal underdog at 25%. Timeless is still a slight favorite at 63%. After bigger than expected hits due to the Minneapolis preemption, CBS' Kevin Can Wait was down to 80%, and Scorpion still fine but much less impressive at 77%.
- The model makes Timeless an OK renewal favorite at 70%, and Conviction only a slight underdog at 40%, based on the prelims. It looks like they could both adjust down in finals, so stay tuned.
- At least based on the prelims, it looks like the formula underestimated Kevin Can Wait's 2.7 on a very high-viewed night last week, as Kevin inched up in True and finally took a big jump in R% (86%). It was also a strong start for Scorpion at 91%.
- Three dramas opened their seasons in the 10/9c hour, and the week one edge went to NBC's Timeless (1.9), leading out of The Voice (2.8/3.1). However, Timeless was a pale imitation of the dramas that have popped in this timeslot in past years, like The Blacklist, Revolution and Blindspot. They were all in the neighborhood of a 200 Plus on premiere night, and Timeless looks more like a 150 at best. It was also well behind where The Good Place (2.3) opened two weeks ago. It could still be a success with this start, but it's clearly not gonna be able to absorb a late-season collapse the way those other shows could.
- If NBC was 'meh,' ABC was a few notches below that with the start of its own new drama Conviction (1.0), leading out of Dancing with the Stars (1.6/1.7) and dropping steeply at the half (1.1 -> 0.8). It will have to hold up very well just to be a Castle-level performer in the hour, and Castle-level got cancelled last season.
- On CBS, it was the veteran Scorpion (1.8) returning for one last two-hour drama Monday on CBS. It'll be in just the 10/9c hour going forward, but this was a great start, very close to the Plus of its 2.2 premiere a year ago.
- Scorpion had a lot of help from Kevin Can Wait (2.4), which still looks really legit at 8:30 out of The Big Bang Theory (3.4). Though it came down from last week, which was probably inflated by debate pre-tune, going from a 2.6 premiere to this 2.4 two weeks later is still an exceptional hold.
- Fox brought up the rear with a rough week three drop for Gotham (1.0), and Lucifer (1.1) lost a couple tenths in week two after a debate preemption last week.
|Dancing with the Stars Fall||1.7|
|The Big Bang Theory||3.5|
|Kevin Can Wait||2.2|
|The Voice Fall||3.0|
|Monday Night Football||4.65|
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