Tuesday, December 13, 2011

The War of 18-49, Sons of Anarchy



SONS OF ANARCHY (FX)

Why post this on Tuesday? After airing its first season on Wednesday, FX's Sons of Anarchy moved to Tuesday and has aired there ever since.

See (who saw) how it all began: The premiere of Sons of Anarchy did respectably by FX standards, but it was certainly not an out-of-the-box hit. In fact, after premiering with a quiet 2.53 million viewers and 1.2 demo on 9/3/08, the show dropped in each of the next two weeks, to a 1.1 demo in week two and a series-low 0.9 in week three. The show perked up a bit from there, but only into the low-1 range during season one.

The best of times: Season two of Sons took a huge step up from season one. The season two premiere is a particularly amazing result, as a show that had never exceeded 1.3 in season one suddenly posted 4.29 million viewers and a 2.3 demo. But the show's best times were still ahead of it, as it grew double digits in seasons four and five, including a series high 2.8 demo for the season five premiere on 9/11/12.

The worst of times: You have to start with season one; after all, none of the 40 results in the last three seasons have done worse than any of season one. Most of season three also saw the show slump; from its 2.1 demo premiere, Sons dropped by 0.8 in the next six weeks before recovering down the stretch. The series low remains the 0.9 demo on 9/17/08. (I don't have the 9/24/08 result, so there's a chance that one went lower, but it's not that likely considering it got back to a 1.1 the next week.)

Then vs. now: During season three, it looked like Sons of Anarchy had peaked; viewers and critics were bailing. But season four brought a big rebound in both arenas, with the biggest premiere and the biggest average in series history. And the show impressively kept on growing in season five, up about three tenths year-to-year from wire to wire. Sons has slowly grown into a show with ratings worthy of the broadcast networks; in fact, it usually beat them all in its Tuesday 10/9c in fall 2012. Rumors are that creator Kurt Sutter wants to end the show after seven seasons; at this rate, the show may not slow down in any meaningful way by the time it ends.

Season adults 18-49 lows/averages/highs:

Season Year Timeslot Lo Avg Hi Results Grade
1Fall 2008Wednesday 10:000.9 1.11 1.312/13
2Fall 2009Tuesday 10:001.7 1.94 2.3
3Fall 20101.3 1.67 2.1
4Fall 20111.7 2.04 2.5
5Fall 20122.12.312.8A-

A18-49+Year-to-Year In-Season
Premiere Average Finale P -> F
Fall 200837+0%
Fall 200969+92%+75%+92%+0%
Fall 201066-9%-14%-22%-14%
Fall 201184+19%+22%+17%-16%
Fall 2012105*+11%+14%+12%-15%

*- 2012-13 A18-49+ based on the season-to-date league average; will update at season's end based on final league average

For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.

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