Friday, December 9, 2011

First Two Weeks, I Hate My Teenage Daughter

How nice of Fox to give us one last reminder that this feature exists before the new year...


The premiere episode of I Hate My Teenage Daughter got a 2.8 demo, dropping by 24% from The X Factor's 3.7 rating (and it was a 4.1 at 9:00). That's a pretty nice rating for a Fox comedy, but it had the big lead-in and, perhaps more importantly, virtually no competition with timeslot peers Criminal Minds and Happy Endings in repeats. Fox carefully chose an evening on which it could get sampled, but I think the number was fairly deceptive.

As expected, week two brought a big crash as Criminal Minds and Happy Endings returned to the half-hour. Teenage Daughter pulled just a 2.1 demo, a 25% drop. It should be noted that The X Factor also dropped (to a 3.3 overall). That's a big drop under almost any circumstances, but I don't think it's as bad as the "typical" 25% drop considering how much tougher the timeslot got. Preliminary TRUE comparisons have the drop at more like 17%.

The premiere of Teenage Daughter got what I would call a "high-end bubble" performance by Fox comedy standards. Week two got what I'd call a "low-end bubble" performance, fairly similar to what Raising Hope has been doing of late. That's not a good place to be in week two of your existence. And considering how negative the buzz is, it's tough to see it holding even there. The problem with predicting this show's fate is Fox's (slated) future plans for it; if it really does get to air for an extended period after American Idol, Fox may well get fooled by the ratings boost that provides (as they did with last year's Breaking In). Still, I don't exactly consider it a given that will happen, so I'm just going to follow the numbers. No season two.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line all of these numbers up to do an objective analysis in what I call "the system."

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