Saturday, October 1, 2011

First Two Weeks, The Up-to-the-Second "System"


As veteran readers of the blarg know, each year I take all the new scripted broadcast shows and line up their first two weeks of ratings to come up with an objective way of prognosticating renewal. There are some flaws in this system that could probably use addressing, but it isn't particularly high on my priority list, so it'll basically remain as it was last year. The one big change is that I'm going to do two separate versions, one using A18-49 ratings and one using the True Strength metric. Since I don't have week two final TRUE yet, I don't have an official edition of the TRUE version yet, but it'll be here when I do! I'm also bringing back the old 3x A18-49 multiplier I used to put CW shows on a relatively level playing field. Perhaps it makes the CW's shows look a little too good this time, but again, this thing is not high enough on my to-do list to do all the research to figure out if there's a better one.

Another difference is that I'm just going to keep the "system" on one constant page and link to it each time rather than update and re-paste on each individual show post. This will keep me from having obsoleted versions on the old posts should anyone go back and look.

A18-49 ratings:

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
2 Broke Girls 7.1
New Girl 4.8
Rob 4.1
Once Upon a Time 4.0
The Secret Circle (3.9) 
Napoleon Dynamite 3.8
Smash 3.8
Up All Night 3.7
Last Man Standing 3.6
Ringer (3.6)
Alcatraz 3.3
Suburgatory 3.3
Whitney 3.3
Touch 3.3

Revenge 3.3
Terra Nova 3.1
Pan Am 3.1
Person of Interest 3.1
Unforgettable 2.9 
Apartment 23 2.9
I Hate My Teenage Daughter 2.8
How to Be a Gentleman 2.7
Grimm (2.6)
Hart of Dixie (2.4)
The River 2.4
Man Up! 2.4 
Allen Gregory 2.4
Are You There, Chelsea? 2.3
GCB 2.2

Missing 2.1 
Charlie's Angels 2.1
Free Agents 2.1
Awake 2.0
Work It 2.0
Scandal 2.0
Prime Suspect 1.8 
A Gifted Man (1.8) 
The Finder 1.7
The Playboy Club 1.6
NYC 22 1.5
The Firm 1.4
Best Friends Forever 1.2
Bent 0.9
The LA Complex (0.9)

CW premieres are multiplied x3. Friday premieres are multiplied x1.25.

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
The Finder +29%
GCB +5%
Terra Nova even
Hart of Dixie even 
Scandal even
The LA Complex even
Once Upon a Time -3%
Bent -6%
Suburgatory -6% 
New Girl -6%
NYC 22 -7%
How to Be a Gentleman -7%
Alcatraz -9%
Apartment 23 -10%

Allen Gregory -13%
Person of Interest -13%
Unforgettable -14%
Last Man Standing -14%
Grimm -14%
A Gifted Man -14%
Rob -15% 
Pan Am -16%
Man Up! -17%
Prime Suspect -17%
Revenge -18%
Touch -18%
The Playboy Club -19%
Awake -20% 
Missing -24%

Whitney -24%
Ringer -25%
I Hate My Teenage Daughter -25% 
Best Friends Forever -25%
Work It -25%
Smash -26%
Are You There, Chelsea -27%
Charlie's Angels -29%
The Firm -29%
The River -29%
The Secret Circle -31%
Up All Night -35%
2 Broke Girls -35%
Free Agents -38%
Napoleon Dynamite -45% 

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): New Girl, Once Upon a Time, Alcatraz, Suburgatory (6 points), Rob, Last Man Standing, Touch (5 points) (5-2)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): 2 Broke Girls, The Secret Circle, Napoleon Dynamite, Smash, Up All Night, Ringer, Whitney, Terra Nova, Apartment 23, How to Be a Gentleman, Hart of Dixie, GCB  (4 points), Revenge, Pan Am, Person of Interest, Unforgettable, Grimm, Man Up!, Allen Gregory  (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points):  I Hate My Teenage Daughter, The River, Are You There, Chelsea?, Scandal, The Finder, NYC 22, Bent, The LA Complex (2 points), Missing, Awake, Prime Suspect, A Gifted Man, The Playboy Club (1 point), Charlie's Angels, Free Agents, Work It, The Firm, Best Friends Forever (0 points) (17-1)

TRUE:

WEEK ONE (tiers worth 4, 2, 0 points)
2 Broke Girls 5.17
New Girl 4.30
Rob 3.75
Up All Night 3.67 
Last Man Standing 3.63 
Smash 3.39
Once Upon a Time 3.36
Suburgatory 3.28 
Ringer (3.09) 
Terra Nova 3.06  
Napoleon Dynamite 3.01
Alcatraz 3.01
The Secret Circle (2.95) 
Pan Am 2.88 

Unforgettable 2.72
Whitney 2.72
Missing 2.66
Revenge 2.65
Charlie's Angels 2.49
Person of Interest 2.46 
Touch 2.46
Grimm 2.45
Apartment 23 2.39
GCB 2.33
How to Be a Gentleman 2.29
Awake 2.14
Scandal 2.14
The River 2.10
Hart of Dixie (2.05)

Are You There, Chelsea? 2.04 
Man Up! 2.01
I Hate My Teenage Daughter 1.99 
Free Agents 1.87
A Gifted Man 1.77 
Work It 1.72
Allen Gregory 1.64
The Playboy Club 1.52
NYC 22 1.49
Prime Suspect 1.41 
The Finder 1.36
Best Friends Forever 1.28
The Firm 1.13 
Bent 0.94
The LA Complex (0.72)

CW premieres are multiplied x3.

WEEK TWO (tiers worth 2, 1, 0 points)
Once Upon a Time +4%
Hart of Dixie +0%
Terra Nova +0%
The LA Complex -0%
Suburgatory -1%
Person of Interest -1%
The Finder -4%
Last Man Standing -5% 
2 Broke Girls -6%
Prime Suspect -7%
Touch -7%
New Girl -7%  
GCB -8%
Apartment 23 -9%

Revenge -12%
Grimm -12% 
NYC 22 -12%
Scandal -13%
Unforgettable -15%
Bent -16%
The Secret Circle -17%
Rob -17%
Ringer -18%
Are You There, Chelsea? -19%
Allen Gregory -20%
How to Be a Gentleman -20% 
Alcatraz -22%
Man Up! -22%
The Playboy Club -23%

The Firm -23%
Awake -23%
Whitney -24% 
I Hate My Teenage Daughter -25%
Pan Am -25%
Missing -25%
Up All Night -26%
A Gifted Man -26% 
The River -31%
Smash -36%
Charlie's Angels -37% 
Work It -38%
Free Agents -39%
Best Friends Forever -41%
Napoleon Dynamite -47%

EXCELLENT (5-6 points): 2 Broke Girls, Suburgatory, Last Man Standing, Once Upon a Time, Terra Nova, New Girl (6 points), Ringer, Grimm, Rob, Alcatraz, The Secret Circle (5 points) (6-5)
BORDERLINE (3-4 points): Pan Am, Up All Night, Napoleon Dynamite, GCB, Touch, Smash, Hart of Dixie (4 points), Unforgettable, Person of Interest, How to Be a Gentleman, Scandal, Apartment 23, Revenge (3 points)
IN TROUBLE (0-2 points): Charlie's Angels, Whitney, Prime Suspect, The Finder, The River, Awake, Missing, The LA Complex (2 points), Allen Gregory, Man Up!, The Playboy Club, Are You There, Chelsea?, Bent, NYC 22 (1 point), Free Agents, A Gifted Man, The Firm, I Hate My Teenage Daughter, Work It, Best Friends Forever (0 points) (19-1)

"Eye test" renewal prognoses:

Ringer - CANCEL - CORRECT
Up All Night - RENEW - CORRECT
Free Agents - CANCEL - CORRECT
The Secret Circle - RENEW - INCORRECT
2 Broke Girls - RENEW - CORRECT
The Playboy Club - CANCEL - CORRECT
New Girl - RENEW - CORRECT
Unforgettable - CANCEL - CORRECT
Revenge - RENEW - CORRECT
Charlie's Angels - CANCEL - CORRECT
Person of Interest - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Whitney - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Prime Suspect - CANCEL - CORRECT
A Gifted Man - CANCEL - CORRECT
Pan Am - RENEW - INCORRECT
Terra Nova - RENEW - INCORRECT
Hart of Dixie - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Suburgatory - RENEW - CORRECT
How to Be a Gentleman - CANCEL - CORRECT
Last Man Standing - RENEW - CORRECT
Man Up! - CANCEL - CORRECT
Once Upon a Time - RENEW - CORRECT
Grimm - RENEW - CORRECT
Allen Gregory - CANCEL - CORRECT
I Hate My Teenage Daughter - CANCEL - CORRECT
Work It - CANCEL - CORRECT
The Firm - CANCEL - CORRECT
Are You There, Chelsea? - CANCEL - CORRECT
Rob - RENEW - INCORRECT
The Finder - CANCEL - CORRECT
Alcatraz - RENEW - INCORRECT
Napoleon Dynamite - CANCEL - CORRECT
Smash - RENEW - CORRECT
The River - CANCEL - CORRECT
Awake - CANCEL - CORRECT
GCB - CANCEL - CORRECT
Missing - CANCEL - CORRECT
Bent - CANCEL - CORRECT
Touch - RENEW - CORRECT
Best Friends Forever - CANCEL - CORRECT
Scandal - CANCEL - INCORRECT
Apartment 23 - RENEW - CORRECT
NYC 22 - CANCEL - CORRECT
The LA Complex - CANCEL - CORRECT

(These are my final verdicts based on just looking at the first two weeks' ratings and the larger landscape in the individual First Two Weeks posts.)

2 comments:

Spot said...

Your record for 2011-12: 34-8

Spot said...

Thanks! Actually 35-9... left out Pan Am and Missing. I'll do a post about this in the next week or two.

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