Friday, April 20, 2012

First Two Weeks, Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23



APARTMENT 23 (ABC)

WEEK ONE
ABC's final scripted premiere of the season was sitcom Don't Trust the B---- in Apartment 23, and it posted a 2.9 demo airing out of the 4.2 demo rating from Modern Family. That seemed fairly similar to the 2.8 demo that eventually renewed Happy Endings scored in its series premiere out of a 3.9 Modern Fam exactly 52 weeks ago. It seemed weaker than the 3.7 demo that eventually axed Mr. Sunshine scored out of a 5.1 Modern back in February 2011. However, neither of those shows faced American Idol on premiere night. Overall, this was a fairly middling initial outing.

WEEK TWO
In week two, Apartment 23 dropped by a very acceptable 10%. Modern Family was down a tick to a 4.1. There was somewhat less competition in the hour as Criminal Minds went into repeats, but overall viewing seemed to be down on the evening as a whole; Apartment 23 maintained the same 7 share as last week.

PROGNOSIS
My history picking Modern Family lead-outs is not very good. I said Mr. Sunshine would get renewed despite its 30% drop against Idol in week two. I also said Happy Endings (which moved to 10:00 in week two) would get the axe. But here goes: through two weeks, this show still looks noticeably Truly stronger than the tail end of this Happy Endings season. Sunshine was in about the same spot through two weeks (compared to Cougar Town). If I could pick in favor of Mr. Sunshine after it dropped 30% to a 2.6, then I'm probably gonna pick in favor of a show that dropped 10% to a 2.6. Plus, Apartment 23 seems to have more positive Internet sentiment going for it, and that's almost singlehandedly bought second seasons for some other ABC comedies. Noticeable improvement on a previous occupant that's getting renewed plus good buzz look like a decent combination right now.  Week three with a repeat Modern lead-in is going to be an interesting number to watch, but I think it'll be a comfortable renewal if it can get back to about this level after Modern originals return. I will say it gets renewed.

"First Two Weeks" is my look at... the first two weeks of a new scripted broadcast show's ratings. I also line all of these numbers up to do an objective analysis in what I call "the system."

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