Friday, April 27, 2012

CW True Power Rankings, April 2012

For the first time in seven weeks, it's the True Power Rankings! This is the most critical edition of all, because the networks have just about all the ratings info that they will take into final decision-making time. This should be fun, since lots of new shows have entered the mix since last we spoke. Let's go.

As last time, the numbers below take the ten most recent final TRUE scores (as of April 22), drop the highest and lowest result, and average whatever's left.

Previous CW Power Rankings: November | January | February

Other networks: ABC | CBS | NBC | Fox | The CW

The Elite
1. The Vampire Diaries (1.54)

Tier Two
2. One Tree Hill (0.85)
3. America's Next Top Model Fall (0.83)
4. Supernatural (0.82)
5. 90210 (0.67)

The Zip is still a long way behind the WB/UPN refugees, but it's now far enough ahead of the rest of the pack to move up a line.

The Photo Finish
6. Nikita (0.56)
7. Hart of Dixie (0.55)
8. America's Next Top Model Spring (0.55
9. The Secret Circle (0.54)
10. Gossip Girl (0.53)

As I've said for many months, the CW bubble is pretty muddled. It seems the crop has thinned out to pretty much just Nikita, Hart of Dixie and The Secret Circle, since most seem to think Gossip Girl is getting a final season. If timeslots have less bearing than raw numbers (the TVByTheNumbers philosophy), that benefits The Secret Circle, hurts Hart of Dixie, and really hurts Nikita.

In terms of what they should do, I'd go in almost the opposite direction. It's hard to deny that The Secret Circle has been a pretty big disappointment. It was supposed to fit perfectly with the CW's biggest show and instead it's doing considerably worse than Nikita did after TVD last year. It's clearly far too weak to remain after TVD, but would it be viable elsewhere? It looks like they're gonna pick up a lot of pilots, if the number they ordered is any indication, and so I'd be looking at The Secret Circle for Friday. And I really think the best-case scenario for a Friday run of TSC is about what Nikita is already doing. TRUE suggests they're about equal, but The Secret Circle has the most compatible lead-in it could possibly have right now, so I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped by a higher percentage in a move.

Hart of Dixie and Nikita don't have anything to brag about either, but they're in much tougher situations. All these shows should only be in consideration for some kind of low-priority scheduling, and when it's this close I always lean toward the "bird in the hand" that's already in the low-priority situation. I could see Hart of Dixie staying on Monday (the one weeknight that I think is too crowded for the CDub to aggressively attack) and I could see Nikita staying on Friday. They're not gonna break out, but there's also relatively less downside, and that's really all you're looking for in those slots.

I guess I'm a little biased by the expectations. The Secret Circle was supposed to be a great TVD companion and has come up far short. Hart of Dixie was expected to do very little and has met or maybe slightly exceeded those expectations. I'm hoping the CDub pays attention to these shows' situations and sees TSC for what it is. But I'm too cowardly to actually predict it will happen!

Top Model is already renewed, but it's still having an extraordinarily bad season; no data point all season has been within even 30% year-to-year! I'm pretty sure it's time to start phasing this one out.

The Dunzo
11. H8R (0.47)
12. Ringer (0.40)
13. Remodeled (0.20)
14. The LA Complex (0.19)

Hey, H8R's almost on the bubble...!

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