The first edition looks at Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, an ABC institution on Sundays for almost eight years which makes its debut as a regular Friday program tonight.
TRUE says: The first four weeks of EM:HE this season averaged a very consistent 1.56 TRUE. It'll be moving to Fridays from 8:00 to 10:00, where based on other programs in that slot we estimate it'll have about a -10% Sitch. 1.56 + (-10% * 1.56) = a 1.4 A18-49 rating.
Spot says: A few interesting things here. First, as I noted yesterday, Sunday and to a lesser extent Friday seem like "problem days" for the True Strength metric. Should EM:HE's TRUE be higher if I were "correctly" accounting for sports competition? Also, the -10% Sitch estimate may be a little conservative; if the show maintains its 1.56ish TRUE but the Sitch is more like -15%, that'd be a 1.3 demo.
Not many shows in the last few years have moved to Friday within a season in really "good faith" fashion. Fringe moved at midseason and (at least for a couple weeks) almost fully maintained its Thursday average, but I think that was one of the miracles of the year. Home Edition is going to drop. I'm wary about predicting anything to make a "good" transition to Friday. I think the Sunday TRUE may be undercounted, but I also think the Sitch might be worse, so I'll cancel those out, agree with the objective analysis and say a 1.4 demo.