The War of 18-49, America's Got Talent

AMERICA'S GOT TALENT (NBC)

Scheduling history: America's Got Talent has been scheduled on multiple nights in each season since the first, and those nights have almost always been Tuesday and Wednesday. The early part of summer 2012 was a rare exception as the network put Talent on Monday/Tuesday, but even that eventually reverted to the Tuesday/Wednesday setup.

See (who saw) how it all began: Like So You Think You Can Dance, the other summer staple covered so far this summer, America's Got Talent got a big initial sampling. It premiered to 12.4 million viewers and a 4.6/14 adults 18-49 rating on 6/21/06. Week two dropped 17% to a 3.8 demo, then week three rebounded to a 4.1, but from there the show would mostly dip into the low 3's for the rest of the first season.

The best of times: Also like So You Think You Can Dance, the strongest season of Got Talent's run to date was the second one. It was also the only season the show was regularly scheduled on just one night. It only had one airing outside of Wednesday, a season-low 2.6 demo on 7/11/07. Season six was also a standout, up a couple ticks from the previous three seasons. Its 4.6 demo on 7/5/11 was the only time the show's ever matched its series premiere demo on 6/21/06. However, the show has become much stronger on a historical-adjusted basis in the last couple seasons. The summer 2015 season eked out a new series high in Plus (at least for the main night), and the addition of Simon Cowell in 2016 thrusted the show to another level entirely in 2016 and 2017.

The worst of times: Remarkably, season seven with its introduction of Howard Stern really marked the first significant downturn ever for this series, as it was down over 15% on both nights. The last two results airings (on a special Thursday night) were particularly ugly, starting with a series-low 1.9 demo on 9/6/12 and culminating with just a 2.4 for the 9/13/12 finale that was down a third from the 2011 finale. It had a nice rebound on the main night in 2015, but dropped to new series lows for the Wednesday results edition: a 1.6 on 8/12/15, 8/19/15 and 8/26/15. It took another three years to drop to 1.5 for the first time (8/15/18, 8/29/18, 9/5/18). Then 2019 brought a bunch of low-1's, including a 1.1 on 8/21/19 and 8/28/19.

Then vs. now: Every once in awhile you'll hear someone say that NBC should do a regular season edition of America's Got Talent, wondering how this show could linger in the summer with numbers that would be more than acceptable at any time of year. In its early years, this was all about NBC's incredible weakness during the regular season; if it didn't happen during the 2007-08 writers' strike, it seemed like it would never happen. But as Talent continued blowing away its previous career highs in A18-49+ in the late 2010's, the show became too big to contain in the summer. Spin-off America's Got Talent: The Champions debuted in winter 2019.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	Summer 2006	Wed 9:00, Wed 8:00	3.46		2.9	4.6	detail
		1	Summer 2006	Thursday 9:00	2.65				2.1	3.5	detail
2	Summer 2007	Wednesday 9:00	3.65	+5%	2.6	4.4	detail
3	Summer 2008		Wednesday 9:00	3.20	-12%	2.6	3.7		detail
			3	Summer 2008	Wednesday 9:00	2.66				2.3	2.9	detail
4	Summer 2009	Tuesday 9:00	3.30	+3%	2.9	3.7	detail
		4	Summer 2009	Wednesday 9:00	2.92	+10%			2.1	3.5	detail
5	Summer 2010	Tuesday 9:00	3.15	-4%	2.6	3.9	detail
		5	Summer 2010	Wednesday 9:00	3.04	+4%			2.5	3.9	detail
6	Summer 2011	Tuesday 9:00	3.48	+10%	2.8	4.6	detail	A-
		6	Summer 2011	Wednesday 9:00	3.17	+4%			2.5	4.1	detail	A-
7	Summer 2012	Tuesday 8:00	2.85	-18%	2.4	3.7	detail	C-
		7	Summer 2012	Tue 9:00, Wed 9:00	2.66	-16%			1.9	3.7	detail	C-
8	Summer 2013	Tuesday 9:00	2.55	-11%	2.2	3.1	detail	B
		8	Summer 2013	Wednesday 9:00	2.41	-9%			2.1	2.9	detail	B
9	Summer 2014	Tuesday 9:00	2.33	-9%	1.8	3.0	detail	B
		9	Summer 2014	Wednesday 9:00	2.11	-12%			1.8	2.4	detail	B
10	Summer 2015	Tuesday 8:00	2.34	+0%	2.1	2.6	detail	A-
		10	Summer 2015	Wednesday 8:00	1.79	-15%			1.6	2.1	detail	A-
11	Summer 2016	Tuesday 8:00	2.44	+4%	2.2	2.8	detail	A
		11	Summer 2016	Wednesday 8:00	2.24	+25%			1.8	2.8	detail	A
12	Summer 2017	Tuesday 8:00	2.62	+7%	2.3	3.0	detail	A
		12	Summer 2017	Wednesday 8:00	2.30	+3%			1.9	3.0	detail	A
13	Summer 2018	Tuesday 8:00	2.09	-20%	1.8	2.5	detail	B
		13	Summer 2018	Wednesday 8:00	1.70	-26%			1.5	2.1	detail	B
14	Summer 2019	Tuesday 8:00	1.52	-28%	1.2	1.7	detail	C
		14	Summer 2019	Wednesday 8:00	1.25	-26%			1.1	1.5	detail	C

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now19	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	Summer 2006	85	solid(sum)	0.81		71	113	113	81
		1	Summer 2006	65	marg(sum)	0.62		52	86	52	86
2	Summer 2007	97	hit(sum)	0.92	+13%	69	117	114	111
3	Summer 2008	97	hit(sum)	0.92	0%	79	112	112	100
		3	Summer 2008	80	solid(sum)	0.76		70	88	70	70
4	Summer 2009	110	big hit(sum)	1.04	+14%	96	123	106	110
		4	Summer 2009	97	hit(sum)	0.92	+21%	70	116	103	116
5	Summer 2010	112	big hit(sum)	1.07	+2%	92	139	128	139
		5	Summer 2010	108	big hit(sum)	1.03	+11%	89	139	103	139
6	Summer 2011	137	big hit(sum)	1.30	+22%	110	181	169	149
		6	Summer 2011	125	big hit(sum)	1.18	+15%	98	161	146	142
7	Summer 2012	121	big hit(sum)	1.15	-12%	102	157	157	123
		7	Summer 2012	113	big hit(sum)	1.07	-10%	80	157	144	102
8	Summer 2013	121	big hit(sum)	1.15	+0%	104	147	147	114
		8	Summer 2013	114	big hit(sum)	1.09	+2%	100	138	133	119
9	Summer 2014	124	big hit(sum)	1.18	+2%	96	159	159	133
		9	Summer 2014	112	big hit(sum)	1.06	-2%	96	127	127	127
10	Summer 2015	139	big hit(sum)	1.32	+12%	125	155	155	143
		10	Summer 2015	106	big hit(sum)	1.01	-5%	95	125	95	125
11	Summer 2016	168	mega(sum)	1.59	+20%	155	189	175	189
		11	Summer 2016	154	mega(sum)	1.46	+45%	120	195	165	195
12	Summer 2017	214	mega(sum)	2.04	+28%	190	242	217	242
		12	Summer 2017	188	mega(sum)	1.79	+22%	155	241	174	241
13	Summer 2018	191	mega(sum)	1.82	-11%	167	227	227	207
		13	Summer 2018	155	mega(sum)	1.47	-18%	133	191	140	191
14	Summer 2019	159	mega(sum)	1.52	-16%	130	176	174	169
		14	Summer 2019	132	big hit(sum)	1.25	-15%	116	157	120	157

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.

Spotted Ratings, Monday 5/30/11

Note: I said in my summer preview post last week that I would continue to do these "What Matters" posts and only do full tables on a few select days. After looking at the weekend ratings, it became clear that "What Matters" will almost always equal "nothing" on Friday and Saturday nights, so I think I'm just going to even do posts at all for Sunday thru Thursday, and only Friday/Saturday should something really interesting happen. Even on Sunday to Thursday it is often a stretch to find something interesting in the broadcast ratings, so I might skip a handful of those as well. It might be worthwhile to try to find a way to incorporate cable into these during the summer months, so I'll think on that some more.

WHAT MATTERS:

• The Bachelorette (2.1) dropped a stout 25% from its post-Dancing premiere last week and was 16% below last year's first "on its own" episode. Not a good start for this season. But the news at 10/9c was better as Extreme Makeover: Weight Loss Edition (2.3) launched pretty well.

• Law & Order: CI (1.1) in its "new to NBC" premiere was three-tenths behind the same episode's premiere on USA 29 days prior but a tick ahead of last summer's "new to NBC" premiere. Law & Order: LA (1.4) perked up to its highest number since May 2.

Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

Updated for 2010-11: Network 18-49 Averages in the 2000s

Did one of these last year and figured it was worth an update with the 2010-11 regular season officially in the books. NBC rode the Winter Olympics to a tie with ABC last year, the first time in six years they weren't in outright fourth place, but they're back in the gutter this year with no major sporting event to help them.

Summer 2011 Matchups, Sunday

Bold indicates a timeslot change; ALL CAPS indicates a new show.

Previous Summer Matchups: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday

8/7c
Broadcast:
Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (R) (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS, 7/10)
America's Got Talent (R) (NBC)
The Simpsons (R) / The Cleveland Show (R) (Fox)

Cable:
Mob Wives (VH1)

Projected A18-49 winner: Big Brother (CBS)

Easy pick here; the only broadcast original will also be the only thing to get beyond a 2.0 demo.

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2011 Week Four Winners/Losers

So ends another session of Demos Year-to-Year. For more on this particular sweep period, see the week one, week two and week three recaps. Those might be more useful than this one for gauging what the real winners and losers of the sweep were, as a lot of stuff doesn't end up airing during the fourth week.

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Grey's Anatomy -33%
2. The Big Bang Theory (Th 8-8:30pm vs. M 9:30-10pm) -32% 
3. Minute to Win It (Su 8-9pm) -29%
4. Primetime: What Would You Do? -28%
5. Dateline Fri -27% 

Grey's Anatomy getting on this list is much more about what Grey's did last year (an enormous spike in its season finale) than a particularly bad result this year, though this year's result wasn't great. Big Bang and Minute and Primetime have all been on the list before, while Dateline had a bad newsmagazine fluctuation.

Demos Year-to-Year, Wednesday 5/25/11

Last one till premiere week! Will do the week four recap probably tomorrow. (Kind of off-schedule today.)

Spotted Ratings, Thursday 5/26/11

WHAT MATTERS:

• The only original on the first day of summer was So You Think You Can Dance (3.2), up 7% from the 3.0 that started last year's disappointingly-rated season. Decent start, but it will have to keep it up to truly pull off the bounce-back season the franchise could sure use. 

Above based on preliminary adults 18-49 ratings unless otherwise noted.

Summer 2011 Matchups, Friday

Bold indicates a timeslot change; ALL CAPS indicates a new show.

Previous Summer Matchups: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday

8/7c
Broadcast:
Shark Tank (R) (ABC)
Flashpoint (CBS)
Friday Night Lights (NBC)
Bones (R) (Fox)

Cable:
WWE Smackdown (Syfy)

Projected A18-49 winner: Flashpoint (CBS)

Sort of a tough call as all of this stuff should hover around the 1.0 mark, but I'll take Flashpoint in a tight one. Last week, though, the repeat of Shark Tank beat it.

The War of 18-49, So You Think You Can Dance

SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE (FOX)

Scheduling history: Almost every SYTYCD season in the early years aired on Wednesday and Thursday. The only exceptions were season one (Wednesday only) and the show's only regular season campaign in fall 2009 (Tuesday/Wednesday). But it was cut to one night starting in 2012, and it's been a different night each year: Thursday in 2012, Tuesday in 2013, Wednesday in 2014 and Monday starting in 2015.

See (who saw) how it all began: So You Think You Can Dance got a big premiere sampling, garnering 10.30 million viewers and a 4.6/15 among adults 18-49 for its two-hour premiere on 7/20/05. The demo number remains a series high to this day, and for most of the rest of the first season, it appeared those numbers were going to remain far ahead of any other airing; the show dropped an abnormally large 28% to a 3.3 demo in week two, then to a 3.0 in week three. It'd hover around a 3.0 for most of the rest of season 1.

The best of times: But while that 4.6 demo has still gone unmatched, the show had a pretty significant overall upswing in its second season, and it got pretty close to that 4.6 on several occasions in seasons two and three. Those were easily the show's two strongest overall seasons, as the show broke the 4.0 plateau on a dozen different occasions during those two seasons and just once (the aforementioned series premiere) in the other five seasons to date.

The worst of times: What really seems to have derailed this show was Fox's decision to run a regular-season edition. There were concerns when it was announced at the 2009 upfront that it'd get lost among the full-fledged broadcast competition, and that certainly happened. The show got as low as a 1.6 demo on 11/25/09 (Thanksgiving Eve) that season. But that could arguably have been shrugged off if the show made a nice recovery the next summer. Instead, SYTYCD didn't get back on track in the summer of 2010. The season only made insignificant gains from the summer edition and finished down by over 20% from the summer 2009 season, easily the biggest year-to-year drop the show's ever taken. It's since continued downhill, going as low as a 0.4 demo a half-dozen times in 2019.

Then vs. now: There were a couple reasons behind Fox's decision to bring SYTYCD into the regular season. The first was to take up real estate in a fairly soft development season, and the second was to provide a compatible lead-in to the only really promising thing to come out of their development, the dramedy Glee. I do have to admit that Glee became a substantial success for Fox, but it sure seems like the show's overexposure for that one year had a lot to do with the big drops the next summer. Fox cancelled the second night of SYTYCD after the summer 2011 season. The revamp didn't really slow down the show's bleeding, but the show kept ekeing out a spot on the summer sked. It finally had a somewhat promising trend in 2017, but the ratings are still low, so the fate is up in the air once more.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas	Year	Slot	Avg	y2y	Lo	Hi	Results	Grade
1	Summer 2005	Wednesday 8:00	3.18		2.3	4.6	detail
2	Summer 2006	Thursday 8:00	3.72		3.2	4.4	detail
		2	Summer 2006	Wed 8:00, Wed 9:00	3.74	+18%			2.8	4.4	detail
3	Summer 2007	Thursday 8:00	3.68	-1%	3.2	4.3	detail
		3	Summer 2007	Wednesday 8:00	3.47	-7%			2.9	4.4	detail
4	Summer 2008	Thursday 8:00	3.12	-15%	2.1	3.6	detail
		4	Summer 2008	Wednesday 8:00	3.26	-6%			3.0	3.7	detail
5	Summer 2009	Thursday 8:00	3.07	-2%	2.3	3.6	detail
		5	Summer 2009	Wednesday 8:00	3.04	-7%			2.6	3.5	detail
6	Fall 2009	Wednesday 8:00	2.43			1.6	2.8		detail
		6	Fall 2009	Tuesday 8:00	2.33		2.1			2.6	detail
7	Summer 2010	Thursday 8:00	2.43	-21%	1.8	3.3	detail
		7	Summer 2010	Wednesday 8:00	2.37	-22%			2.0	3.0	detail
8	Summer 2011	Thursday 8:00	2.18	-10%	1.6	3.3	detail	C
		8	Summer 2011	Wednesday 8:00	2.26	-5%			1.8	3.1	detail	C
9	Summer 2012	Wednesday 8:00	1.97		-13%	1.5	2.7	detail	C
10	Summer 2013	Tuesday 8:00	1.55	-21%	1.2	2.3	detail	D+
11	Summer 2014	Wednesday 8:00	1.25	-20%	0.9	1.7	detail	C-
12	Summer 2015	Monday 8:00	0.95	-24%	0.7	1.3	detail	D+
13	Summer 2016		Monday 8:00	0.73	-23%	0.5	1.0	detail	C-
14	Summer 2017		Monday 8:00	0.70	-5%	0.5	0.9	detail	B+
15	Summer 2018		Monday 8:00	0.61	-12%	0.5	0.8	detail	B-
16	Summer 2019	Monday 9:00	0.47	-23%	0.4	0.7	detail	C-
17	Summer 2022	Wednesday 9:00	0.29		0.2	0.3	detail
18	Spring 2024	Monday 9:00	0.14		0.1	0.2	detail	D-

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas	Year	A18-49+	Label	Now24	y2y	Lo	Hi	Premiere	Finale
1	Summer 2005	78	solid(sum)	0.30		56	113	113	74
2	Summer 2006	92	hit(sum)	0.35		79	108	106	81
		2	Summer 2006	92	hit(sum)	0.35	+18%	69	108	89	106
3	Summer 2007	98	hit(sum)	0.37	+7%	85	114	98	98
		3	Summer 2007	92	hit(sum)	0.35	+0%	77	117	109	88
4	Summer 2008	94	hit(sum)	0.36	-3%	63	109	106	100
		4	Summer 2008	98	hit(sum)	0.37	+7%	91	112	109	94
5	Summer 2009	102	hit(sum)	0.39	+8%	76	120	113	116
		5	Summer 2009	101	hit(sum)	0.38	+3%	86	116	116	93
6	Fall 2009	86	marginal	0.33		57	99	96	92
		6	Fall 2009	83	marginal	0.31		75	92	85	82
7	Summer 2010	86	solid(sum)	0.33	-15%	64	117	107	82
		7	Summer 2010	84	solid(sum)	0.32	-16%	71	107	99	78
8	Summer 2011	86	solid(sum)	0.33	-1%	63	130	130	79
		8	Summer 2011	89	solid(sum)	0.34	+6%	71	122	122	75
9	Summer 2012	83	solid(sum)	0.32	-6%	63	114	102	68
10	Summer 2013	74	solid(sum)	0.28	-11%	57	109	90	66
11	Summer 2014	66	marg(sum)	0.25	-10%	48	90	85	69
12	Summer 2015	56	marg(sum)	0.21	-15%	42	77	77	48
13	Summer 2016	50	marg(sum)	0.19	-11%	34	69	69	48
14	Summer 2017	57	marg(sum)	0.22	+13%	44	73	73	44
15	Summer 2018	56	marg(sum)	0.21	-1%	48	71	66	59
16	Summer 2019	50	marg(sum)	0.19	-11%	41	72	72	45
17	Summer 2022	57	marg(sum)	0.22		45	67	67	51
18	Spring 2024	37	flop	0.14		26	47	42	26

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.

War and Strength: Summer at SpottedRatings.com Starts TODAY!

The TV regular season has come to an end, and that means it's time for this blog - which last year was actually more busy in the summer than in the regular season - to kick into a different gear. Here's a quick look at what will be happening this summer: