Friday, May 6, 2011

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2011 Week One Winners/Losers

As I said in the one of these I did for February, I'm now reducing this to original-vs.-original comparisons, though I will include original-vs.-repeat if it's in the other direction from what you'd think. (See #9 on the timeslot loser list for an example; an original is way behind a repeat.) Sorry Supernatural fans, but you don't get another whole sweep of topping the list by beating Top Model reruns. 

One other note: I usually do top 5 for these, but I'll expand that to top 10 this time. I think I'll go back to top 5 next week, but maybe once per sweeps period it's worth the time to show off a little more.

Top 10 year-to-year show losers
1. Minute to Win It (W 8-9pm vs. Su 8-9pm) -47%
t-2. One Tree Hill (Tu 8-9pm vs. M 8-9pm) -40%
t-2. America's Next Top Model (W 9-10pm vs. W 8-9pm) -40%
t-4. 60 Minutes -35%
t-4. Fringe (F 9-10pm vs. Th 9-10pm) -35%
t-6. Brothers & Sisters -33%
t-6. CSI: Miami (Su 10-11pm vs. M 10-11pm) -33%
8. 30 Rock (Th 10:30-11pm vs. Th 9:30-10pm) -30%
9. The Big Bang Theory (Th 8-8:30pm vs. M 9:30-10pm) -28%
t-10. Chuck -26%
t-10. Desperate Housewives -26%
t-10. Community -26%

Man, it doesn't feel like long ago that Minute to Win It was growing into a potential hit. Now it's a Wednesday embarrassment for NBC every week. One Tree Hill was expected to take a hit against Idol, but then Fox moved Idol away from Tuesday, so this result looks even worse. Also in the "no-real-excuses" department is Top Model, which hasn't really even picked up from its move to 9/8c. Fringe surprised with its initial transition to Friday, but it's now definitely feeling the effects. Other shows hurt by their timeslot moves include CSI: Miami, 30 Rock and Big Bang.

Top 10 year-to-year show gainers
1. Dancing with the Stars: The Results (Tu 9-10pm vs. Tu 8-9pm) +25%
2. Parks & Recreation (Th 9:30-10pm vs. Th 8:30-9pm) +21%
3. NCIS +19%
4. The Celebrity Apprentice +19%
5. The Office (Th 9-9:53pm vs. Th 9-9:30pm) +17%
6. America's Funniest Home Videos +16%
7. Castle +16%
8. 90210 (M 8-9pm vs. Tu 8-9pm) +14%
9. Dancing with the Stars Monday (M 8-10pm vs. M 8-9:30pm) +10%
10. Bones (Th 9-10pm vs. Th 8-9pm) +8%

There were actually quite a few shows up year-to-year this week. Both Dancing shows were, with the Tuesday one doing better because it moved to 9:00 and away from Idol (though it still faced the big Voice premiere). Parks could remain on this list thanks to its move from 8:30 to post-Office, but The Office won't remain here unless a lot of audience sticks around without Steve Carell. NCIS has had another great season, but it benefits this time of year from no Idol competition. Any Apprentice season growing year-to-year is an extreme rarity, so credit to that franchise. Other double-digit gainers include Castle (up double digits for the second straight year!) and 90210 (no Idol competition).

Top 10 year-to-year timeslot losers
1. Traffic Light vs. Glee (Fox, Tuesday 9:30-10pm) -78%
2. Raising Hope vs. Glee (Fox, Tuesday 9-9:30pm) -63%
3. Breaking In vs. American Idol (Fox, Wednesday 9:30-10pm) -63%
4. Nikita vs. Supernatural (CW, Thursday 9-10pm) -45%
5. Rules of Engagement vs. Survivor (CBS, Thursday 8:30-9pm) -44%
6. The Chicago Code vs. 24 (Fox, Monday 9-10pm) -43%
7. Friday Night Lights vs. Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC, Friday 8-9pm) -42%
8. Glee vs. American Idol Tue (Fox, Tuesday 8-9pm) -40% 
9. Minute to Win It vs. Minute to Win It (R) (NBC, Wednesday 8-9pm) -38%
10. 60 Minutes (CBS, Sunday 7-8pm) -35%

Three of the top five (Raising Hope, Breaking In, Rules) would actually probably be even worse if I had half-hour breakdowns because they most likely faced higher-rated half hours than the program average. Idol's departure from Tuesday is gonna kill Fox on this list until the last week of sweeps (when Idol returns). The Chicago Code comparison does look pretty brutal, but its lead-in House is down 26% in its own right.

Top 10 year-to-year timeslot gainers
1. American Idol vs. Bones (Fox, Thursday 8-9pm) +119%
t-2. The Voice vs. The Biggest Loser/Parenthood (NBC, Tuesday 9-11pm) +100%
t-2. America's Next Top Model vs. Fly Girls/High Society (CW, Wednesday 9-10pm) +100%
4. Family Guy (R) vs. 'Til Death/American Dad! (R) (Fox, Sunday 7-8pm) +76%
5. Happy Endings vs. Happy Town (ABC, Wednesday 10-11pm) +42%
6. Bones vs. Fringe (Fox, Thursday 9-10pm) +40%
t-7. Blue Bloods vs. Miami Medical (CBS, Friday 10-11pm) +33%
t-7. Shark Tank vs. Wife Swap (ABC, Friday 8-9pm) +33%
9. Dancing with the Stars Mon vs. Dancing with the Stars Mon/Romantically Challenged (ABC, Monday 8-10pm) +22%
10. CSI: NY vs. Medium (CBS, Friday 9-10pm) +21%

There were several partially-vs.-repeat comparisons that I left out. The Wednesday Idol built 118% vs. mostly a repeat of Lie to Me (and 30 minutes of Idol) and Survivor built by 77% on an original Old Christine a repeat of Big Bang Theory at 8:30. Anyway, the fact that Idol moved this year means it is going to be a mainstay on these timeslot lists since it's facing other stuff from last year. Bones also gets a big assist from that fallout. Plenty has been said about The Voice, which will probably continue to be near the top of these lists. Top Model's actually having a pretty bad season but benefits from its own move. The Happy Endings comparison, I should note, is just the 10:00 half-hour. It didn't seem this way for much of the season, but it looks like CBS is benefiting from its reinvention of Friday at this juncture.

Here are this week's daily posts:
Thursday | Friday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday

And last year's recap of this week.

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