Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Fall 2011 Matchups

I did this last year too just to give some perspective on how these shows match up rather than just look at each network in a vacuum. This is just some quick reaction and basically a CliffsNotes version of my big hour-by-hour preview coming up late this summer. Timeslot changes are in bold, new shows are in CAPS.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) vs. How I Met Your Mother/2 BROKE GIRLS (CBS) vs. The Sing-Off (NBC) vs. TERRA NOVA (Fox)

This timeslot was fairly boring last fall with lots of returnees, but it'll be much more interesting this year because of the Terra Nova shakeup. There's also that whole "How will two head-to-head musical competitions hold up?" issue.

Dancing with the Stars (ABC) vs. Two and a Half Men/Mike and Molly (CBS) vs. The Sing-Off (NBC) vs. House (Fox)

In this timeslot, the incumbents (namely Two and a Half Men and to a lesser extent its lead-out Mike & Molly) are the most interesting thing to watch. How will ratings hold up in the Kutcher era?

Castle (ABC) vs. Hawaii Five-0 (CBS) vs. THE PLAYBOY CLUB (NBC)

If nothing else, The Playboy Club looks like a good counterprogramming call. Up against two fairly established crime shows, going with another one would've been likely suicide for NBC (as it was last fall with Chase).

LAST MAN STANDING/MAN UP! (ABC) vs. NCIS (CBS) vs. The Biggest Loser (NBC) vs. Glee (Fox)

Tuesday has by far the least upheaval of any high-priority day, but there's still a ripe opportunity for new blood, because The Biggest Loser and Glee are both likely to take hits next year. Are these two ABC comedies up for the challenge?

DWTS: Results (ABC) vs. NCIS: LA (CBS) vs. The Biggest Loser (NBC) vs. NEW GIRL/Raising Hope (Fox)

Once again, there are a lot of returning shows (including Raising Hope, which just moves a half-hour later). Raising Hope got renewed, but it was generally a fourth-place show against these big guns; can New Girl do better?

Body of Proof (ABC) vs. UNFORGETTABLE (CBS) vs. Parenthood (NBC)

It might be tough for CBS as they throw a female-led procedural at ABC's own female-led procedural. This one, formerly and infamously known as The Rememberer, is about a woman who doesn't and can't forget a single thing.


All comedies and unscripted here, as NBC tries to establish family comedy Up All Night in what might be the toughest possible timeslot. And it could be another down year for Survivor if X Factor ends up being as big a hit as it seems like it could.

Modern Family/Happy Endings (ABC) vs. Criminal Minds (CBS) vs. Harry's Law (NBC) vs. X FACTOR/I HATE MY TEENAGE DAUGHTER (Fox)

As big comedy lead-out Cougar Town and big reality lead-out Breaking In squared off late this spring, so too will Happy Endings and I Hate My Teenage Daughter. The spring race was close (because Breaking had such a huge lead-in advantage); how about the fall? Harry's Law isn't gonna have massive demo growth, but can it be acceptable counterprogramming in a timeslot where there's nothing really like it?

REVENGE (ABC) vs. CSI (CBS) vs. Law & Order: SVU (NBC)

As with The Playboy Club, the one thing you can say positively about Revenge even if you don't like the look of the show is that it certainly doesn't face anything like it. Law & Order: SVU has developed a nice history of weakening 10:00 CBS shows head-to-head (from all the shows that failed when SVU was on Tuesday to Without a Trace to CSI: NY to Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior). Will the CSI mothership be the latest to take the hit?

CHARLIE'S ANGELS (ABC) vs. The Big Bang Theory/HOW TO BE A GENTLEMAN (CBS) vs. Community/Parks & Recreation (NBC) vs. X FACTOR (Fox)

With CBS and NBC most likely doing about the same as they did last year, the key question will be how big X Factor is, and whether it's down-to-earth enough to allow some room for the Angels to break out.

Grey's Anatomy (ABC) vs. PERSON OF INTEREST (CBS) vs. The Office/WHITNEY (NBC) vs. Bones (Fox)

Like with Monday 9/8c, there are actually as many question marks about the incumbents as about the newbies. Namely, what will happen long-term with The Office without Steve Carell? And can it launch a multicamera show? Person of Interest is supposedly one of the best-testing CBS dramas evah or something, and you can't deny this is a pretty big vote of confidence in its favor.

Private Practice (ABC) vs. The Mentalist (CBS) vs. PRIME SUSPECT (NBC)

In a timeslot with a hugely-female-skewing show and a crime drama, can a female-skewing crime drama make any inroads? I tend to think so. Private Practice is losing steam, and this program looks a little more earnest than The Mentalist.

Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (ABC) vs. A GIFTED MAN (CBS) vs. Chuck (NBC) vs. Kitchen Nightmares (Fox)

Interesting race between a couple veteran unscripted shows, one of which skews quite young (Kitchen Nightmares) while the other skews pretty old even on Sunday. There's room for both, I'd think, but I'm not quite sure who takes the demo crown. As for the scripted shows... not so high on their chances.

Shark Tank (ABC) vs. CSI: NY (CBS) vs. GRIMM (NBC) vs. Fringe (Fox)

As a big Shark Tank fan, I like how this timeslot's shaking down; the CDub will almost certainly offer its own genre show into this already genre-heavy mix. I don't think Grimm's got much of a chance, but I'm also not convinced NBC won't change their Friday sked up before premiere week.

20/20 (ABC) vs. Blue Bloods (CBS) vs. Dateline (NBC)

One of the only timeslots to return intact, Blue Bloods should continue to win while the newsmagazines should continue to be heavily driven by the story of the week.

Saturday Night College Football (ABC) vs. Rules of Engagement/Comedytime Encores (CBS) vs. Encores (NBC) vs. Cops (Fox)

Only thing of interest on Saturday is how long Rules actually airs here before it takes over on Monday or Thursday. That's probably gonna come down to how the new comedies do.

Saturday Night College Football (ABC) vs. Crimetime Encores (CBS) vs. Encores (NBC) vs. Encores (Fox)

Saturday Night College Football (ABC) vs. 48 Hours Mystery (CBS) vs. Encores (NBC)

America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC) vs. 60 Minutes (CBS) vs. Football Night in America (NBC) vs. NFL overrun/The Cleveland Show (Fox)

As I said last year: whoever has the NFL overrun will do awesome.

ONCE UPON A TIME (ABC) vs. The Amazing Race (CBS) vs. Football Night/Football (NBC) vs. The Simpsons/ALLEN GREGORY (Fox)

As with a couple other shows, what you can say positively about Once Upon a Time (regardless of your thoughts about the show) is that it looks pretty different from everything airing here. The one problem is that Amazing Race does pick up some of the family audience.

Desperate Housewives (ABC) vs. The Good Wife (CBS) vs. Football (NBC) vs. Family Guy/American Dad! (Fox)

How will The Good Wife do? Desperate Housewives certainly has a heavy female skew, but it's probably gonna take another year-to-year hit, and the rest of the competition has totally different audiences. I still don't think it'll do well, but the competition may actually be less prohibitive here than it was at times in the Tuesday hour.

PAN AM (ABC) vs. CSI: Miami (CBS) vs. Football (NBC)

It's the first time in a half-decade that Desperate Housewives may not be quite strong enough to lead into a new show, so... it's the year it gets to do it. Different audience from CSI: Miami, probably different audience from football, so it comes down to whether the Pan Am concept can get people to show up.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wow, NBC will be crushed into a fine powder.

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