Thursday, May 5, 2011

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 5/4/11


WHAT MATTERS:
  • Every week, a fresh prognosis for Happy Endings. Its 10:00 episode dropped 19% from last week's promising 2.1, then the 10:30 episode dropped another 18%. Not a good sign, but not a killer either. This seems to be one of those shows where you can't get too confident based on any one data point. I imagine there's one more week of ratings at most before the verdict gets rendered on most shows, so it'd do well to rally a bit next week.
  • Speaking of not relying on one data point, there's Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior, which fell 15% from its really good result three weeks ago. Even though the numbers superficially fluctuate wildly, it seems the show is pretty reliably mid 2's under "good" circumstances (three weeks ago, its 2.6 came with an original Minds lead-in and no original SVU competition) and low 2's under other circumstances (like if SVU is new as it was this week). Overall, perhaps a slightly stronger show than The Good Wife (if not this particular week) but I'd consider it less likely to return due to the big gap in acclaim.

FULL TABLE:


A18-49 Share Last Lead LeLa Comp CoLa bcShr Avg Rank
The Middle 2.0 6 +5% n/a n/a 11.1 -3% 15 -20% 18/21
Better with You 1.6 5 +7% -20% +54% 11.1 -7% 13 -23% 18/21
Modern Family 3.9 10 +3% +144% +0% 11.8 +12% 25 -13% 18/21
Cougar Town 2.2 6 +5% -44% +95% 7.6 -1% 22 -19% 15/18
Happy Endings 1.7 4 -19% -23% +5% 8.4 +23% 17 -20% 5/6
Happy Endings 1.4 4 -18% -18% -23% 8.4 +0% 16 -32% 7/7

Survivor 3.1 9 -3% n/a n/a 9.8 -4% 24 -2% 7/12
Criminal Minds 3.2 8 -9% +3% -0% 9.6 -2% 25 -8% 17/22
Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior 2.2 6 -15% -31% -9% 7.3 +17% 23 -11% 7/10

Minute to Win It 1.0 3 +25% n/a n/a 11.9 -4% 8 -31% 12/20
Minute to Win It (R) 1.1 3 +38% +10% +25% 11.7 +11% 9 +29% 1/3
Law & Order: SVU 2.6 7 +8% +136% +10% 6.6 +10% 28 +3% 6/21

American Idol Wed 6.6 19 -7% n/a n/a 7.2 +9% 48 -18% 16/16
Breaking In 2.4 6 +0% -64% -7% 7.4 +0% 24 -13% 4/5

America's Next Top Model (R) 0.4 1 -20% n/a n/a 12.5 -3% 3 -20% 3/3
America's Next Top Model 0.9 2 -18% +125% -20% 11.9 +8% 7 -10% 6/10

VIEWING LEVELS:

Slot Min HUT Calc HUT Max HUT
8-9pm 32.1 34.4 37.0
9-10pm 37.1 38.1 41.3
10-11pm 34.0 37.4 40.8
8-10pm 34.4 36.1 36.7

This evening compared to last year

KEY (much more detail at What? and Why? page)

A18-49 - Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Share - Percentage of US TV-watching adults 18-49 watching the program.
Last - Percent difference from previous episode.
Lead - Percent difference from lead-in program.
LeLa - Percent difference between lead-in and previous episode's lead-in.
Comp - Total rating of other broadcast programs in the same timeslot. 10:00 programming multiplied by 1.75 to attempt a level playing field.
CoLa - Percent difference between competition and previous episode's competition.
bcShr - Percentage of US national big-5 broadcast TV-watching adults 18-49 watching the program. 10:00 programming multiplied by two-thirds to attempt a level playing field.
Avg - Percent difference from show's previous demo average this season.
Rank - Rank among show's episodes to date this season.

Min HUT/Max HUT - Smallest/largest percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 that could be watching any TV in the timeslot.
Calc HUT - Estimate of the percentage of TV-owning adults 18-49 watching any TV in the timeslot.

(R) = Regular-night repeat. These are ranked/averaged as if they were separate shows.
(oR) = Other-night repeat. These are not ranked/averaged in any way.

Stats in blue are less accurate due to lack of access to half-hour breakdowns.

Source: TVByTheNumbers

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