Thursday, May 26, 2011

Summer 2011 Matchups, Thursday

Bold indicates a timeslot change; ALL CAPS indicates a new show.

Previous Summer Matchups: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday

Wipeout (ABC, 6/23)
The Big Bang Theory (R) / Rules of Engagement (R) (CBS)
Community (R) / 30 Rock (R) (NBC)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox, 5/26)


Projected A18-49 winner: So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)

This one's really close between Wipeout and Dance, with Wipeout having a slight (less than 0.2) edge based on last year's Thursday numbers, but I'll go with Dance because I think Wipeout may drop a bit more due to its heavy recent exposure. Last year ABC running Wipeout on Thursday was a bit of an audible because they wanted to help along the early promising returns from Rookie Blue, so only five originals actually aired on Thursday. Not sure if that number will be higher this year.
Big Brother (CBS, 7/7)
The Office (R) / Parks & Recreation (R) (NBC)
Glee (R) (Fox) 

Swamp People (History)
Burn Notice (USA, 6/23)

Projected A18-49 winner: Big Brother (CBS)

It's a surprisingly quiet hour during the summer, so I'll take the incumbent reality over the new reality. Should note though that Thursday was (barely) Big Brother's weakest night last year at right around a 2.4 demo. Not an impossible number for Expedition Impossible to achieve, but I don't think Burn Notice will be able to get that high.

Rookie Blue (ABC, 6/23)
The Mentalist (R) (CBS)

Futurama/Ugly Americans (Comedy Central, 6/23)
WILFRED/Louie (FX, 6/23) 
SUITS (USA, 6/23)

Projected A18-49 winner: The Mentalist (R) (CBS)

Man, this has gotta be the toughest hour yet to call, because I could see a 1.5 demo ruling the day and I think Rookie Blue, Suits and the repeat of The Mentalist could all be right in that range. The only show I could see really getting above that is Suits, which will have the ~2.0 demo of Burn Notice coming into it, but I think the smarter money is probably on the Mentalist encore, which has been repeating well lately and will also have a reasonable-for-summer lead-in with Big Brother. This hour reminds me of back in summer 2008 when there were like three broadcast scripted originals and two of them (CBS' Swingtown and NBC's Fear Itself) somehow ended up head-to-head. Both of those did pretty poorly, with Swingtown rather quickly sent to Friday in favor of Flashpoint. Speaking of logjams, there are so few comedies on the air during the summer, yet two blocks of them end up head-to-head here.

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