Friday, May 20, 2011

Demos Year-to-Year, May Sweeps 2011 Week Three Winners/Losers

Top 5 year-to-year show losers
1. Friday Night Lights -38%
2. The Big Bang Theory (Th 8-8:30pm vs. M 9:30-10pm) -38% 
3. Primetime: What Would You Do? -37%
4. Gossip Girl -36% 
5. CSI: NY (F 9-10pm vs. W 10-11pm) -36%

This top 5 is usually headlined by shows that have had adverse timeslot moves (see perennial contenders Big Bang and CSI: NY) so it's interesting to see a trio of same-timeslot shows this time. Friday Night Lights was more about last year's "big" result (a surprising week two uptick to a 1.3) rather than this year's result being anything out of the ordinary (0.8). Gossip Girl didn't get much of a spike for its season finale this year. And Primetime: What Would You Do? has been weakening all season. Once a short-order run of specials (running a combined 17 episodes in its first three seasons), WWYD? got used in a full-season capacity in 2010-11 (tonight's finale will be its 25th this season alone) and has really worn down over the course of that full season. I'd look for it to revert back to its short-order duty next year.

Top 5 year-to-year show gainers
1. Dancing with the Stars: The Results (Tu 9-10pm vs. Tu 8-9pm) +40%
2. Castle +38%
3. Smallville (F 8-10pm vs. F 8-9pm) +30%
4. Bones (Th 9-10pm vs. Th 8-9pm) +23%
5. NCIS +21%

Dancing and NCIS have been two of the biggest beneficiaries of not having to face American Idol, while Bones has been a mainstay on this list in part because it's had an Idol lead-in. Smallville got a large uptick in its two-hour series finale, so year-to-year gains were to be expected there. The really impressive one is Castle, which like Bones has a much bigger lead-in (it was still airing out of comedy dud Romantically Challenged at this time last year), but 38% is still 38%. And last week it made the top 5 (at +24%) even though Dancing aired for the full two hours both years.

Top 5 year-to-year timeslot losers
1. Breaking In vs. Glee (Fox, Tuesday 9:30-10pm) -73%
2. Raising Hope vs. Glee (Fox, Tuesday 9-9:30pm) -54%
3. Mike & Molly vs. The Big Bang Theory (CBS, Monday 9:30-10pm) -53%
4. Glee vs. American Idol Tuesday (Fox, Tuesday 8-9pm) -46%
5. Nikita vs. Supernatural (CW, Thursday 9-10pm) -46%

A new night but no luck getting off this list for Breaking In, as it and Raising Hope remain nowhere close to last year's Glee while the still-potent Glee has the misfortune of facing last year's Tuesday Idol. Mike & Molly returns to the list as the Monday 9:00 hour remains a year-to-year disaster area (with the 2.5 Men repeat down 55% from last year's original). Nikita has secured its renewal but certainly earned its Friday relegation stripes with this showing (though lead-in The Vampire Diaries was down 18% itself).

Top 5 year-to-year timeslot gainers
1. American Idol vs. Bones (Fox, Thursday 8-9pm) +150%
2. American Idol vs. The Good Guys/American Idol (Fox, Wednsesday 8-10pm) +95%
3. The Voice vs. Parenthood (NBC, Tuesday 10-11pm) +67%
4. Blue Bloods vs. Miami Medical (CBS, Friday 10-11pm) +50%
5. Bones vs. Fringe (Fox, Thursday 9-10pm) +39%

Idol facing anything-but-Idol is a pretty sure bet to make the list, and The Voice has been another mainstay. That leaves Bones, itself riding the Idol wave to significantly outperform last year's Fringe, and Blue Bloods, which had a nice season finale uptick to finish its season miles ahead of last year's flop Miami Medical.

Here are this week's daily posts:
Thursday | Friday | Sunday | Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday

And last year's recap of this week.

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