Sunday, May 29, 2011

Summer 2011 Matchups, Sunday

Bold indicates a timeslot change; ALL CAPS indicates a new show.

Previous Summer Matchups: Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday

Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (R) (ABC)
Big Brother (CBS, 7/10)
America's Got Talent (R) (NBC)
The Simpsons (R) / The Cleveland Show (R) (Fox)

Mob Wives (VH1)

Projected A18-49 winner: Big Brother (CBS)

Easy pick here; the only broadcast original will also be the only thing to get beyond a 2.0 demo.
Castle (R) (CBS)
America's Got Talent (R) (NBC)
Family Guy (R) / IN THE FLOW WITH AFFION CROCKETT (Fox, 8/14) 

The Next Food Network Star (Food, 6/5)
True Blood (HBO, 6/26)
Ice Road Truckers (History, 6/5)
Drop Dead Diva (Lifetime, 6/19)
Leverage (TNT, 6/26)
Law & Order: Criminal Intent (USA)

Projected A18-49 winner: True Blood (HBO)

Only Jersey Shore and a handful of big reality competitions on broadcast outrated True Blood in A18-49 last summer, and none of those beat its 2.85 average by more than a few ticks. It's a crowded hour, especially on cable, but True Blood should finish easily ahead of all these options.

Body of Proof (R) (ABC)
CSI: Miami (R) (CBS)
The Marriage Ref (NBC, 6/26)

The Glades (A&E, 6/5)
Breaking Bad (AMC, 7/17)
Keeping up with the Kardashians / Ice Loves Coco (A&E, 6/12)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (6/10) / Entourage (HBO, 6/24)
THE PROTECTOR (Lifetime, 6/12)
In Plain Sight (USA)

Projected A18-49 winner: Falling Skies (TNT)

The cynical pick here is The Marriage Ref, which averaged a pretty good 2.53 demo in its first season on NBC and would almost certainly win this timeslot with those numbers. But NBC seems to be trying to get rid of this one, so I think it'll take a huge drop this summer. I'm going a little bold and picking the TNT newbie to get close to a 2.0 demo and outshine them all, but if both those shows fail then Keeping Up with the Kardashians is a nice mid-to-upper-1's fallback pick. Will also be interested in seeing how Lifetime's procedural The Protector does, as it's had a long development history dating back to the 2008 upfront when it was in contention for CBS and called Exit 19 (it then starred Geena Davis, now Ally Walker).

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