Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Fall 2010 Matchups


When the networks release schedules, the easy thing to do is look at each schedule as an individual unit. But the reality is that they're all matching up, so I'm going to look at the matchups. I'll try to be very brief on most of these so the post doesn't become toooo long. Yes, we don't have the CW yet, but I think we'll manage. ;-) New shows in bold!

MONDAY
8pm - Dancing with the Stars (ABC) vs. How I Met Your Mother/Rules of Engagement (CBS) vs. Chuck (NBC) vs. House (Fox)

One of the few where there's no real change from how it's gone down this spring.

9pm - Dancing with the Stars (ABC) vs. Two and a Half Men/Mike and Molly (CBS) vs. The Event (NBC) vs. Lonestar (Fox)

Can The Event break out for NBC? Yes. CBS, while still pretty potent, will probably be a bit weaker, and while I really like the look of Fox's Lonestar, I'm pretty skeptical that viewers will.

10pm - Castle (ABC) vs. Hawaii Five-O (CBS) vs. Chase (NBC)

Gonna really be one of the more interesting hours. Castle is the only incumbent, but it will not likely break a 3. That leaves some room. Chase is going to be held down if The Event flops, and the same to some extent for Hawaii Five-O (though Mike and Molly is probably less likely to flop).

TUESDAY
8pm - No Ordinary Family (ABC) vs. NCIS (CBS) vs. The Biggest Loser (NBC) vs. Glee (Fox)

Glee is probably the early favorite to win the timeslot, but not by much. NCIS will be stronger than in the spring with Idol and DWTS gone. Does No Ordinary Family have much of a shot? It looks good, but all three opponents will be strong. It won't be easy.

9pm - DWTS: Results (ABC) vs. NCIS: LA (CBS) vs. The Biggest Loser (NBC) vs. Raising Hope/Running Wilde (Fox)

Except for Fox, this is the same as last fall. Again, three strong nets, can the fourth make any inroads? This time, the newbies are Raising Hope and Running Wilde. I think the good news is that they don't have much of anything as far as compatible competition. And frankly, DWTS: Results and NCIS: LA are both OK, but not real powerhouses. Glee will probably be a good lead-in. But then there's this: Fox really, really can't get people even remotely interested in live-action half-hour comedy.

10pm - Detroit 1-8-7 (ABC) vs. The Good Wife (CBS) vs. Parenthood (NBC)

Again, one newbie against timeslot incumbents. This time the timeslot incumbents are pretty marginal, and Detroit 1-8-7 looks relatively different from both. The real question for Detroit 1-8-7 is whether they can get any interest in this show to begin with.

WEDNESDAY
8pm - The Middle/Better Together (ABC) vs. Survivor (CBS) vs. Undercovers (NBC) vs. Lie to Me (Fox)

It's a historically awful timeslot, and at least two nets will probably not be strong here in ABC and Fox. That leaves the question: can Undercovers hit against Survivor? Again, I think with the move and the fact that it isn't an All-Star season, Survivor is not going to be a show pulling 4.0's in the fall. So I don't think the CBS move crushes Undercovers, but it certainly doesn't help either.

9pm - Modern Family/Cougar Town (ABC) vs. Criminal Minds (CBS) vs. Law & Order: SVU (NBC) vs. Hell's Kitchen (Fox)

This has not typically been an hour filled with veteran shows, but that's the case here. Criminal Minds, especially with help from a Survivor lead-in, is going to handily beat SVU again, while Modern Fam and Cougar Town will continue to do their thing; unfortunately, Cougar Town's "thing" involves losing a ton of its lead-in. That leaves Hell's Kitchen as great Fox counterprogramming that is likely to beat SVU and be a decent and low-cost third place show in a tough hour.

10pm - The Whole Truth (ABC) vs. Defenders (CBS) vs. Law & Order: LA (NBC)

Lawyers vs. Lawyers vs. Lawyers? Three new shows? Really? Well, it's anybody's guess, but in spite of James Belushi, I'm favoring Defenders, which will have the best lead-in support.

THURSDAY
8pm - My Generation (ABC) vs. The Big Bang Theory/Shit My Dad Says (CBS) vs. Community/30 Rock (NBC) vs. Bones (Fox)

The traditional force of this timeslot, Survivor, is out. But a new game is in town in The Big Bang Theory, and that's going to keep everyone else below a 3.0.

9pm - Grey's Anatomy (ABC) vs. CSI (CBS) vs. The Office/Outsourced (NBC) vs. Fringe (Fox)

Only one show here that wasn't here last fall, and that's newbie Outsourced. Hard to say how it'll do, really, but this hour is not as prohibitive as it was back when Grey's and CSI were both monsters.

10pm - Private Practice (ABC) vs. The Mentalist (CBS) vs. Love Bites (NBC)

Private Practice and The Mentalist are both reasonably potent. Both have a lot of females in their audiences. NBC's Outsourced (the Love Bites lead-in) is not going to have a lot of females. So how does Love Bites hit? Um...

FRIDAY
8pm - Secret Millionaire (ABC) vs. Medium (CBS) vs. Who Do You Think You Are? (NBC) vs. Human Target (Fox)

Boy, this is a tough hour to handicap, since Secret Millionaire and WDYTYA both have pretty short seasons and Human Target was, in my mind, a highly marginal renewal. Despite CBS declining big last year, Medium should cruise in this hour, I say. The shows listed for ABC an NBC should probably say "reality TV carousel" instead. Oh yeah, and please renew Shark Tank, ABC!

9pm - Body of Proof (ABC) vs. CSI: NY (CBS) vs. Dateline (NBC) vs. The Good Guys (Fox)

The Good Guys may well never air here if it struggles in the summer, but it's unlikely Fox will come up with anything else that will really mess things up here. CSI: NY is the favorite. Body of Proof seems horribly wasted.

1opm - 20/20 (ABC) vs. Blue Bloods (CBS) vs. Outlaw (NBC)

I give Tom Selleck the edge over Jimmy Smits because the lead-in will probably be better, as stated earlier. 20/20 will occasionally have its big stories, though, so it could be a timeslot winner here sometimes.

SUNDAYS
7pm - America's Funniest Home Videos (ABC) vs. 60 Minutes (CBS) vs. Football Night in America (NBC) vs. NFL overrun/comedy repeats (Fox)

Whoever has the overrun will do awesome.

8pm - Extreme Makeover: Home Edition (ABC) vs. The Amazing Race (CBS) vs. Football Night/Football (NBC) vs. The Simpsons/The Cleveland Show (Fox)

NBC will win with football and lose once they bring in something for midseason. Everyone else will be fine, but look for a lot of 4th place showings for EM:HE in the fall.

9pm - Desperate Housewives (ABC) vs. Undercover Boss (CBS) vs. Football (NBC) vs. Family Guy/American Dad! (Fox)

The Housewives vs. Boss clash will again be interesting. Since these are mostly incumbent shows, the real drama here is whether Undercover Boss is a long-term kind of show.

10pm - Brothers & Sisters (ABC) vs. CSI: Miami (CBS) vs. Football (NBC)

How big does Miami drop? That is the question. I do think it will be strong enough to edge Brothers & Sisters, though.

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