Friday, October 11, 2019

War of 18-49 Updates for Summer 2019: The 100, Agents of SHIELD, Big Brother and more!


Here's a quick catch-up on War of 18-49 pages for the summer broadcast shows that have already existing War pages. Click the names in each one of these tables to see the now-updated War of 18-49 page.



NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
The 1000.20.220.3-26%23flop-14%detail

Basically aired in the same time frame as last year, but its lead-in situations were more difficult; it had a couple fewer The Flash lead-ins in the late spring, and also got stuck after Pandora for much of the summer run (vs. airing at 8/7c after local programming last year). I'm giving this a better grade than SHIELD because you can tell from the DVR gains that the timeslot was holding it back (including a whooping 176% gain from 0.17 to 0.47 on July 23). Grade: C+.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Agents of SHIELD0.30.420.5-22%44flop-10%detail

Moving from winter/spring into the summer is usually not good, but that may have gotten cancelled out by airing at 8/7c after local programming. The boost there is evident in its DVR numbers, where it never once managed a 100% gain in Live+7 (something it achieved almost every episode in the previous couple seasons). It managed basically the same Plus as the final season of Once Upon a Time did in this timeslot during the regular season, which is not a compliment, but maybe a little affirmation that I was right about it being a stronger show than Once when they were airing together. Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
American Ninja Warrior0.80.861-19%91hit(sum)-6%detail

Following a huge drop in 2018, it was one of the steadiest of the reality staples in 2019, while going head-to-head with an enormous season of The Bachelorette. Grade: B-.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
America's Got Talent Tue1.21.521.7-28%159mega(sum)-16%detail
America's Got Talent Wed1.11.251.5-26%132big hit(sum)-15%detail

It was a major drop season for both AGT and Big Brother, perhaps prophesying what is looking like a faster rate of decline for the league average in 2019-20. (Or perhaps both shows are just becoming fatigued now that their networks are airing in-season editions.) I'm giving it the same grade as Big Brother but you can argue that AGT ranks a little stronger in the context of its previous history; BB ranked clearly behind 2017-18 but was relatively indistinguishable with the 2014-16 seasons, while Talent was still way ahead of its 2014 and 2015 seasons. Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
The Bachelorette1.11.542.1+5%162mega(sum)+21%detail

The Bachelor was probably the best returnee story of anything in the regular season, and The Bachelorette followed it up with almost exactly the same-sized growth in the summer. In Bachelorette's case, it was not a new series high; Plus-wise, it was still a little behind the show's inaugural run in winter 2003. But after three straight relatively steady seasons from 2016-18, this was an enormous step upward. Grade: A.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Big Brother Wed1.01.131.3-26%119big hit(sum)-14%detail
Big Brother Thu0.91.061.2-30%111big hit(sum)-19%detail
Big Brother Sun0.91.121.3-25%117big hit(sum)-13%detail

See above! Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Elementary0.20.410.5-14%43flop-1%detail

The seventh and final season of Elementary went out with the same Plus as season six (the only other one to air in the summer). I could nick it a little bit because it had much better lead-ins from Big Brother for a big chunk of this year, but I think it's fairly well established that it doesn't really help this kind of show. Grade: C+.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
iZombie0.20.190.2-21%20flop-9%detail

Same basic analysis here as with Agents of SHIELD: it moved later in the calendar, but that was cancelled out if not more so by getting to air after local programming. Like SHIELD, it had noticeably smaller DVR gains. Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
MasterChef0.70.770.9-23%81solid(sum)-11%detail

It didn't decline quite as much as BB and AGT, but it's still a noticeable downturn for a show that had been steady in Plus for years, and it may have even gotten a little boost from airing alongside the early episodes of BH90210. Also, while BB and AGT still rank rather favorably within their previous ratings histories, this decline took MasterChef to tie its historical low from season one. Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
So You Think You Can Dance0.40.470.7-23%50marg(sum)-11%detail

Same rate of decline as MasterChef, and like with MasterChef this took the show close to its historical Plus low. It gets a slightly worse grade because in SYTYCD's case, a double digit decline to a near-historical low puts it in deeply uncertain territory. But they renewed it with a 49 back in 2016... Grade: C-.



One last note: I have also updated a bunch of cable War pages that completed one or more seasons since my last cable update in late 2017. At this time, these updates are just to the tables and charts, and there are no new grades or even updates to the text, but I thought I should at least get the data itself up to date. If you come across any other War pages that are missing completed seasons, please let me know. In the near future I hope to do some compilation posts that will give War tables to more recent cable series. Here are the pages that got updated in this batch:

American Dad! | American Horror Story | The Americans | Archer | Game of Thrones | Homeland | Nashville | Ray Donovan | Shameless | Silicon Valley | Suits | The Walking Dead | Vikings

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