Monday, October 16, 2017

War of 18-49 Updates for Summer 2017: America's Got Talent, The Bachelorette, Big Brother and more!


Here's a quick catch-up on War of 18-49 pages for the summer broadcast shows that have already existing War pages. Another edition of this for cable is coming soon! Click the names in each one of these tables to see the now-updated War of 18-49 page.



NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
American Ninja Warrior1.11.431.6-19%117big hit(sum)-3%detail

Like I said on last year's post, these summer staples get graded on a bit of a curve because so many of them are so healthy. After years of Plus growth, Ninja Warrior took a larger drop than the regular season league average in 2017. Still a bonafide part of the summer elite, but by this show's lofty standards it was a bit of a disappointing season. Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
America's Got Talent Tue2.32.633.0+6%215megahit+26%detail
America's Got Talent Wed1.92.313.0+3%189mega(sum)+23%detail

For the first time since (I think?) the first season of Survivor, a summer broadcast series actually went to two times the regular season league average. Got Talent grew in raw numbers for the third straight season, and it has to be noted that accomplishment gets tougher as the league average decline speeds up. This is one of the very few times I have even given any thought to trotting out the elusive A+ grade, which hasn't been done in four years, but I will stick with a Grade: A.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
The Bachelorette1.21.602.1-18%131big hit(sum)-2%detail

Basically the same story as Ninja Warrior. -2% in Plus is pretty solid for most veterans, but double digit Plus growth has become almost routine in Bachelor/Bachelorette world in recent years. Even the Bachelor in Paradise season which immediately followed Bachelorette this summer was up 10% in Plus, so I am more inclined to pin a lot of the blame on this individual season. It goes down as a disappointment by this franchise's standards, though far from a disaster. Grade: C.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
Big Brother Wed1.71.882.2+1%153mega(sum)+20%detail
Big Brother Thu1.51.822.1+2%148mega(sum)+21%detail
Big Brother Sun1.41.802.0+4%147mega(sum)+23%detail

After a couple years of much narrower Plus growth, Big Brother got back on the explosion path in 2017. I had been planning on giving this an A- to set it apart from Got Talent, because it seemed to hit a bit of a slump especially around late August. But it finished the season very well in the last couple weeks, ekeing out raw growth on each of the three nights, so it goes down as a truly incredible year. Grade: A.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
MasterChef0.91.101.4-13%89solid(sum)+4%detail

The Gordon Ramsay franchise is still down a good bit from its 100ish heights in the early 2010s, but it seems to have stabilized pretty well in the last couple years. Grade: B.

NameLoAvgHiy2yPlusLabelPlusy2yResults
So You Think You Can Dance0.50.690.9-6%56marg(sum)+12%detail

As both of the elite Monday franchises (Ninja Warrior and Bachelorette) had underwhelming years, a surprise beneficiary was the long-crumbling Fox dance show that has had to compete with them. What basically happened here was it made up the 2016 decline and returned to its 2015 Plus level. That still makes it much lower-rated than the rest of these summer staples, but you gotta start somewhere. As usual at this time of year when updating the SYTYCD War post, we don't know its fate yet. If they've brought it back all these other times, they may as well do it again this year after having finally stemmed the bleeding. But it comes down to money, and it's still weak enough that it is potentially vulnerable. Grade: B+.

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