Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Friday 1/30/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Grimm (1.3) and Hawaii Five-0 (1.5) each adjusted up to even week-to-week. Cristela (1.0) went down a tick.
  • Everyone was airing originals on the first Friday of February sweeps, and there were a few modest drops but nothing too alarming. ABC had another winning night; despite Shark Tank (1.9) coming back to earth from its high two weeks ago, it boosted 20/20 (1.5) to its biggest rating in a couple months. Last Man Standing (1.3) and Cristela (1.1) were even with two weeks ago.
  • CBS had its softest original Friday this month (albeit still better than the Amazing Race-led fall Fridays), as Undercover Boss (1.3) hit a season low and Hawaii Five-0 (1.4) and Blue Bloods (1.3) each inched down.
  • On Fox, World's Funniest Fails (1.1) produced another good result, growing by a tenth in week three. This is looking more like a keeper in a low priority slot for the network.
  • And Hart of Dixie (0.3) came back to reality for the CW after a couple weeks of serious overachieving.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Last Man Standing 1.3 22% +0%+0.0n/a 3/13 -13% +30% -13% 1.5
Cristela 1.0 22% -9%-0.1+0.0 6/12 n/a +11% -9% 1.3
Shark Tank 1.9 30% -14%-0.3-0.1 6/15 -10% +31% -12% 2.1
20/20 1.5 32% +36%+0.4+0.4 4/19 -12% +30% -12% 1.7
ABC:+28%-12%
Undercover Boss 1.3 20% -13%-0.2n/a 9/9 -24% -10% -24% 1.5
Hawaii Five-0 1.5 18% +0%+0.0-0.1 1/13 -17% +43% -14% 1.7
Blue Bloods 1.3 14% -7%-0.1+0.0 4/13 -19% +30% -19% 1.6
CBS:+17%-19%
Constantine 0.8 31% -11%-0.1n/a 8/11 n/a -11% -11% 1.0
Grimm 1.3 34% +0%+0.0-0.1 2/11 n/a +4% +24% 1.6
Dateline Fri 1.2 34% -8%-0.1+0.0 10/17 +0% -11% -8% 1.5
NBC:-6%+2%
World's Funniest Fails 1.1 45% +10%+0.1n/a 1/3 n/a +10% -33% 1.3
Glee 0.7 48% +0%+0.0+0.1 2/5 n/a +8% +0% 1.0
Fox:+9%-23%
Hart of Dixie 0.3 37% -40%-0.2n/a 4/4 -25% -40% -14% 0.4
Whose Line Is It Anyway? (R) 0.3 45% -25% +0% 0.4
Masters of Illusion 0.3 43% +0%+0.0-0.1 1/4 n/a +0% -25% 0.4
CW:-29%-14%
Big5:+8%-14%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

63 comments:

Spot said...

LMS is still solid, I hope it gets another season

Spot said...

H50 is now impressively even in PLUS with last season, something I didn't think it was possible during the fall considering how badly things were going. I really don't see the show going anywhere. What would perform better there short of something like LA, which is not weekend bound yet?


Elsewhere, it is a shame that Dixie fell. I legitimately thought it had a shot with its recent over achievements but not at this level.

Spot said...

Good night for ABC comedies and for the network as whole despite Shark Tank being down.


UB needs to be CBS first option for fridays at 8, they must apply Silvio's plan to turn TAR into a summer show.


Funniest Fails is at least keeping Glee lights on, good filler, their audiences are different but I doubt Glee would be keeping its 0.7 ratings behind, let's say, Gotham repeats.

Spot said...

Yup, I thought the bear was too quick to rule it out given that this order leaves it short of 88. (If the bear is that syndication-driven, why is he suddenly changing his rules of engagement - with the most syndication-driven network of them all, no less - now?)

But nobody can argue about the bear devouring a show at these levels.

Spot said...

That's surprising about H50, because this is synched up with last season when it hit a 1.8!

Spot said...

Kinda crazy World's Funniest Fails is only a tenth behind Terry Crew's other series this week?

Spot said...

Cristela doesn't really have much of a chance. If LMS was in season 3, I'd say they may renewed it to have Last Man get its syndication season, but Last Man is not a lock for next year and Cristela is no anchor

Spot said...

Makes a lot of sense.


A while ago, probably when Nikita (then on 66 episodes) got a 6-episode final season, I suggested that as streaming syndication gains prevalence, the importance of 88 (arbitrary number for daily stripped syndication) would be replaced by the importance of a defined series finale, so that the "complete series" on Netflix or wherever would actually be complete.


Now we have a test case - a network whose entire syndication output goes to Netflix. Cancelling Dixie on 79 (?) would certainly demonstrate a different model, declaring S4 as the final season before it ends especially so. The finale apparently works as a series finale. The show is bearchow. The best thing they can do is confirm it.

Spot said...

Terry Crews' other *primetime* series. He's also doing Millionaire in syndication. ;)

Spot said...

Because none of CW shows is in syndication. None. Supernatural and Charmed still regularly air on TNT (and Smallville sometimes), but those shows are inherited from WB television. Out of CW shows, only Gossip Girl was sold to Style Network, but it bombed so hard there, that now no cable channel wants to buy The Vampire Diaries, let alone shows that are much weaker in ratings than TVD is. It only makes things worse that since 2011 all seasons of all current CW shows are on Netflix - deal is such that all previous seasons are available, but current season only after it finishes. So, for cable channels it's kinda second hand goods, which they don't value much in the first place. I even suspect CBS/WB doesn't even shop those shows to cable channels fearing it may lower their value when their deal with Netflix is up for renewal (which I think is this fall).

Spot said...

Hawaii Five-0 is deader than disco. It ratings could go up 100% this season, but it wouldn't matter, because H50 lost syndication deal with TNT (near $2.5 million per episode) which covered like 70% production costs, and made it profitable. I don't know how those things exactly work, but my guess is: CBS Productions can sell episodes elsewhere, but if it bombed on a big cable network, they can get only a fractions of that money elsewhere.

Then I'm definitely mock-scheduling Person of Interest for Friday 9 PM next year. Because I think Elementary is too toxic to get that slot (might hurt Blue Bloods), while NCIS: LA is CBS owned (unlike PoI), so I think it stays on a weekday. I don't know if NCIS: LA will be Monday 10 PM or Thursday 10 PM, because it depends on which new shows they will pick, and what counter programming they plan for TGIT on Thursday (and to lesser extent, The Voice on Monday).

Spot said...

Yes, I agree. Number of 88 episodes still matters much for sitcoms and for procedural dramas. But serialized dramas are usually not stripped in syndication, so it's safe to assume that for those really doesn't exist some specific number.
Also, 88 isn't much important for low rated stuff like CW dramas and most of cable dramas. Look at this way: Why those survive with so low ratings? Because of lower cost, so money from streaming (Netflix and others), international sales and digital (viewing at networks' sites in first 3 days with embedded same commercials as in TV run) makes up for higher percentage of cost (compared to very expensive big 4 scripted shows). OK, cable channels also get significant transmission fees, and they can repeat show zillion times if they own it (which they often do). All in all, when shows like Supernatural, Archer or "Sunny in Philadelphia" get syndication deal, that's just icing on the cake. While for big 4 networks shows, syndication is first and foremost goal.

Spot said...

I'm not a Dixie viewer so don't know how serialised it is(n't), but absolutely serials play by a different set of rules. Streaming is their syndication outlet, and I'm sure that shows with defined endings are much easier to sell to the streaming outlets. Coincidentally, or maybe not, CW lineup is dominated by serials.

Spot said...

NBC has moved Grimm to 8pm after Constantine ends. The show will go a month long hiatus during which the night shift reruns will take the slot. Dateline will be two hours for that period. I don't like this. DST will hit at that time in the 8pm slot.

Spot said...

They're doing some experiments, probably testing some ideas for the next season.
But so fair those stupid experiments only weakened NBC Friday. Although affiliates are surely welcoming stronger and more compatible Dateline being at 10 PM.

Spot said...

Smells like "close to cancelation, but not this season" to me.

Spot said...

Don't know why though, their new shows so far aren't doing well and it's been recently syndicated on TNT.

Spot said...

Yes. Good example is The Good Wife. When one reads title saying "Off-network rights sold at $2 million per episode", it's a shocker. Who would pay so much? But article says it's a complicated deal "that involves two streaming partners, Amazon and Hulu; a basic cable network, Hallmark Channel; and broadcast syndication barter deal". Well, that makes sense, 4 partners, each chipping in around half a million for airing in different window. Yes, it helps TGW is a pet project on CBS thanks to multiple awards and critical acclaim, but I doubt low-rated drama would reach 7+ seasons without off-network deal covering more than 50% of costs.
BTW, "upscale viewers concentration" thing is nonsense. Yes, it may help CBS to squeeze out 1% or 2% higher ad rates, but I doubt it's any more. Because there's only so much upscale viewers - otherwise they wouldn't be called "upscale".

Next in line for such a deal are Revenge and Nashville. I mean, in old times producers wouldn't fight tooth and nails to drag low-rated serialized soap to 4th season. The fact they had fought is telling us producers are having similar deals in work for those two soaps. I mean, deal involving multiple partners with each paying less than $1 million per episode, but in sum it to be more than a million, and maybe even $1.5 mill. (but I doubt as much as 2 million, because nobody is as slick seller as CBS Productions).

Spot said...

And both of those will be stronger if their series finale wraps up all the things, I'd suspect. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nashville gets a CW-esque farewell 13 (or some other number), it would probably be a decent fit as bridge programming and it would be worth the expense for borderline flop ratings if it paid off on the back end with better streaming deals.

Spot said...

And Millionaire is probably doing better than a 1.2 in the demo!

Spot said...

It depends on what they eventually decide, bridge shows haven't been working out for them though.

Spot said...

Nope - it's not even getting a 2.0 in households.

Spot said...

A sacrificial lamb isn't exactly working for them, it's just to protect certain shows from facing the brunt of potential damage especially on Sundays where it got sub 1.0s for the entire line up, that's much more embarrassing than having reruns. It only works when it's actually doing well for them by their standards.

Spot said...

I would, Nashville ratings trajectory is similar to Revenge's except for the lower ceilling.


Season 1 - Revenge was a 10 PM hit and Nashville an average performer
Season 2 - Revenge drops to good perfomer and Nashville becomes a borderline flop, returning due to a friendly deal with Lionsgate and Tennessee cutting taxes.
Season 3 - Revenge is a borderline flop, Nashville too, but dropped a bit less.
Season 4 - sub 1s ratings and both are not worth keeping.

Spot said...

Nashville is "only" 13% down y2y (we all expected worse), plus it has some Tennessee tax breaks (making it cheaper than average big 4 drama), so I fully expect it getting 22 episodes to die peacefully at Sunday 10 PM.
Besides, while Revenge was at 1.2-1.3 ratings, there existed chances for this scenario: Both Nashville and Revenge getting final season 13 episodes order, and sharing Sunday 10 PM timeslot. But with Revenge dropping to sub 1.0, it would have to be record breaking (for serialized soap) off-network deal to make that short final season of Revenge viable (considering very low first-airing ads revenue).

Spot said...

If it helps the serials more than semi-random rerun sprinkling - and on Sundays in particular there's no doubt it has - then I'd say it *is* working out for them.


The bridge shows themselves, of course, have pulled miserable ratings. But they're mostly sacrificial lambs, taking the hit so the big serials don't have to.

Spot said...

Revenge will already reach the 88 episodes by the end of this season. As for Nashville, depending on what ABC does, will have 3 full seasons under its belt by the end of this season.

Spot said...

The sub 1.0s should come as no surprise given the low 1s it was getting in the Fall and the show hitting series lows, not to mention the continued seasonal declines. As for Nashville, it's up to ABC however they decide but it would make sense to used that time slot for a new show if Nashville is on its way out for a final season.

Spot said...

Can these rules be applied to serialized comedies too?


Parks and Recreation comes to mind, as a low rated pet project, owned by NBCU Studios that got a syndication deal on multiple channels like FXX, Esquire and WGN America, not to mention the online deals.

Spot said...

Nashville has been steadier than Revenge, but it's been pretty much low from the beginning after the initial fall. ABC should expect continued seasonal drops however they choose to.

Spot said...

I can see why since the other shows there aren't working, that and they moved Hannibal to the summer. It seems like NBC is giving up on scripted Fridays shows after Grimm ends whenever that happens.

Spot said...

t seems like a sure thing NBC being done with the friday genre block, could they go Grimm-2 hour Dateline starting next season?


I mean their last options for genre shows are Aquarius (unknown date, likely summer unless they delay it like Crossbones) and Hannibal (might land on fridays at 10 but it's summer bound now and I don't know how long a low-cost co-production can survive under Greenblatt and his constant seach for "broad" appealing shows).

Spot said...

I think they had confirmed Aquarius for summer at their TCA conference, or at the very least strongly hinted at it.

Spot said...

I guess yes, but I really don't know.

You always come
with those tough questions. I'm not TV business insider, nor I ever
studied TV industry. I'm just reading about those things, among others.
I'm like that fake scientist character from The Walking Dead that was
able to convince them he knows solution for undead outbreak because he had read a lot about CDC stuff.

Spot said...

Holy moly. It's gonna need like 80% of that in the demo

Spot said...

Idk, sounds like summer shows with the way things are going.

Spot said...

The McCarthys finally pulled off the schedule. I wouldn't mind if McCarthys would run out episodes, or if it was be replaced by TBBT at some point permanently. But that on and off was maddening.

Thursday 9:30 PM
2/5 & 2/12 - TBBT repeats
2/19 - TAAHM one-hour series finale
2/26 - Mom moves into that timeslot

3 or 4 weeks after 2/26 there will be March Madness caused hiatus, so CBS might reshuffle things again in April in case one (or both) of Mom and The Odd Couple would underperform or overperform.

Spot said...

If that is the case, NBC are big idiots. Grimm is essentially even in Plus from last season and NBC as a whole is worse off so the show becomes more valuable to them, not to mention that Fridays are worse for the show now with the horrible Constantine lead-in. They also just sold the show to syndication and it is a show that has potential to do very well for them (see Supernatural) and keep filling their pockets. Cancelling it or mistreat it up to a point in which they end up cancelling it would be a big mistake in my eyes.

Spot said...

I know you say this about NBC but this year it even feels more like CBS is the one who doesn't know what they are doing, constantly changing their minds. It's very odd since Tassler has never acted like that before.

I do agree that it is quite possible we see yet another reshuffle in April.

Spot said...

Well, Tassler seems to started adjusting to reality.
For example, Scorpion is (relatively) young skewing, Supergirl will. And, if picked, Super Clyde and Limitless could too.

NBC pushed Odyssey to April, Aquarius to summer, and Mr. Robinson god knows where. They pre-cancelled Emerald City, Mission Control and Kimmy, while One Big Happy is alive, but premieres in March without direct Voice lead-in. In the meanwhile, they promoted two summer shows to regular season shows (and gave those The Voice lead-in, no less), while they're airing ambitious mini-series at Thursday 8 PM (I mean, surely they planned it for 10 PM initially). There's no method in that madness, there's just madness.

Spot said...

Syndication might actually be the problem. Grimm started airing this month on TNT (4 episodes each Wednesday), and is nowhere to be found in those "Top 100 cable" lists. And cut off on those lists is as low as 0.3 A18-49. In theory, NBC jerking around with Grimm might be sign that TNT hinted they won't buy seasons behind four seasons they already payed for. It's only being 4 weeks, and TNT's bar is probably set pretty low nowadays, so I don't think there's need to panic. Yet. We'll see.

It was expected Grimm will be sold into syndication this year after 4th season ends, but TNT bought Grimm last fall in a hurry. After they yanked from schedule Mentalist (completely) and Hawaii 5-0 (sometimes it airs after midnight on weekend nights), they needed some more syndicated stuff (in addition to Bones and Castle) to fill their schedule.

Spot said...

Well, there is no arguing with all those NBC facts, you are right!

Spot said...

You are way more knowledgeable in syndication than I am, but isn't it normal for shows to start very slowly in syndication? I imagine that syndication successes like Bones and Castle also didn't start with a homerun, or am I wrong?

Spot said...

I have no idea, but I googled for Castle. I think marathon at September 26th, 2012 was Castle premiere at TNT. Low rated at 0.3-0.4, but at least in top 100:
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2012/09/27/wednesday-cable-ratings-here-comes-honey-boo-boo-wins-night-south-park-premiere-the-challenge-battle-of-the-seasons-daily-show-restaurant-impossible-more/150395/

I have no idea what are TNT expectations about ratings. I just conclude things from scheduling. For instance, they aired H50 in primetime for only one year, while TNT is airing Bones for 7 years already, and Castle for 2 1/2 years. Surely those two shows make them some money to them then.

TNT off-network premieres (might be some errors)
Bones - 01/29/2008
Supernatural - 01/04/2010
The Mentalist - 2011 (summer, I think)
Castle - 09/26/2012
Hawaii Five-0 - 08/08/2013

Grimm - 01/07/2015

Spot said...

Yes I remember Castle started slowly too. I think it's too early for us to worry about Grimm's syndication overall. But thanks!

Spot said...

20/20 may have been so high because they were covering the Vanderbilt football rape case, which is getting a lot of media attention here in Nashville. I bet its Nashville (and other markets in TN and surrounding areas) ratings were much higher than its national rating.

Spot said...

That's not how syndication contracts work. Cable networks are locked into buying all newly produced episodes at a fixed per-episode fee over the length of the contract.

Spot said...

Here's link for very interesting interactive data visualization of TV ad spending during Super Bowl broadcasts since 1995. Just click on some year, or on individual category inside some year.

Spot said...

The Blacklist only started at 10:38pm PT after an incredibly long post-game show. I bet the NBC is furious. On the other networks, the episode would have started at least 15 minutes earlier.

Spot said...

Also, NBC Super Bowl promo watch: a billion promos for The Blacklist, at least 3 promos for Allegiance, 2 promos for SNL40 and The Voice, 1 promo for The Slap/Heroes Reborn/Undateable/Chicago Fire & PD crossover/Odyssey/AD/Fallon/Dig (USA)/Royals (E!)/NBCSN. I probably missed something.


Saw at least 2 promos for One Big Happy pre-game. The promo was terrible, and it's never a vote of confidence when the network doesn't want to show any actual footage from the show, as NBC is wont to do with its multicam comedies.

Spot said...

3 promos for Allegiance? It felt like 5 or 6 to me. And the post-Blacklist episode did add in an extra Slap promo. Also, there was a new Night Shift promo, though surprisingly only one. And SpoilerTV has a new Aquarius promo, but I never saw that. Though I was also surprised at only one promo for Undateable for the entire game, and it was also pretty early. You could argue that it won't be 'til March, but it getting a very special promo meant NBC must have had some sort of interest. But hey, March is far away, and Voice, Night Shift, Blacklist, and Allegiance at least will give some huge viewers.

Spot said...

Just to play devil's advocate, it aired close to the average time as other shows, including House, Office, Glee, and Grey's, and they all turned out fine. Though yeah, the post-game was a bit of an overkill. I get that it helped benefit DVR recorders, but I still find it to be a bit BS.

Spot said...

I realised I forgot about The Night Shift shortly after I posted, along with The Today Show. And you're probably right about Allegiance. It was definitely less than The Blacklist but more than anything else.

Spot said...

Sure, but that's usually down to the length of the game, not the post-game show. The network will have bled viewers during the post-game and, in general, later start times in general means fewer viewers for the lead-out, so it's a double-whammy.



Apparently you could overhear the producers pushing the presenters to end the postgame, saying they were under pressure from the network.


I watched the first ten minutes of The Blacklist and, in my view, it really showed why something light like The Voice is a far better choice than a gritty drama. The episode had a slow start, which seems like a questionable creative decision when so much of your audience will come from a monster lead-in.

Spot said...

Yeah, I could hear it in the background, and I enjoyed the episode despite the slow start. I think the end should be able to draw viewers to the episode on Thursday.

Spot said...

Thanks. I think I get it know from your explanations.
I think you're saying (and I have no choice but to believe you) this:
Cable network CNTW buy, let's say, first 4 seasons of show SHW from studio VGPC with rights to air it, let's say, 5 years. Then, if during those 5 years is produced 5 more seasons of SHW, they must pay each season to VGPC as it ends, even in cases when they don't intend to air it all (like the case with H50 is).
And what usually happens, is that if SHW bombs in syndication, it also has low first-airings, so broadcast network BC cancels it anyway. And in other cases, show is a hit (or at least solid player) at both sides (broadcast and cable syndication). But in rare case like H50 is (and Grimm might become), cable network is on the hook for the seasons they actually don't want. Those cases are even less rare, because sometimes CNTW / VGPC / BC are siblings of same corporation, so they find some solution.

Spot said...

That's not how it works. Typically, a cable network will buy the off-net rights for 4 years, buying the produced episodes and being obligated to buy any future episodes made during the length of the contract (i.e. up to 4 seasons). Barring something something unusual going on, TNT has no choice in whether they want the next few seasons of Grimm if NBC continues to renew it (and I can't imagine they won't, unless the deal is exceptionally awful or the show is surprisingly expensive or something). That's why big off-net deals for flops like Hawaii Five-O are so painful, and why CBS happily keeps the show around.

Spot said...

It turns out I'm not so knowledgeable. See Oliver's comment saying "being obligated to buy any future episodes made during the length of the contract."
Basically, he explains this: if cable network buys show after 4 seasons with rights to air it for next 4 years, they're on the hook for 8 seasons (numbers 4, 4 and 8 may vary, that's just an example). Of course, unless show is cancelled before 8th season is reached (because of very low first-airing ratings on broadcast network, or whatever other reason).

I tend to believe him, because what I said to you was just a guess, while he seems to know what's he's talking about.

Spot said...

Oh yeah, I forgot about how long the post game was.

Spot said...

I am not sure I get it. So the relevant number is the number of seasons the show has when the deal is made? I don't get it, where did the 8 came from in your example? Is just a random example or is there any relation with the 4?

Spot said...

When cable channel buys first 88 (or 110) episodes of some show for syndication, it doesn't gets airing rights "forever". It gets rights for 4 or 5 years, or any agreed number of years (same goes for local broadcast syndication, and streaming services like Netflix).

What I thought is happening with new seasons (beyond 88th episode): cable channel and studio renegotiate terms for each of next seasons (5th, 6th...) as it ends broadcast airing.

Oliver explained that is not true, he says that contracts are typically constructed so that cable channel is on the hook for *all* new episodes produced during those 4-5 years they hold rights, and at the same price as original batch. That's also not forever, but it can lead to them being obligated to pay 88 to 110 more episodes of the show they already yanked from their schedule.

Spot said...

I understand their plan:
1. Promote The Blacklist / Allegiance / SNL40 in Super Bowl.
2. Promote The Voice and its new lead-outs in The Blacklist / Allegiance / SNL40.
3. Promote A:D. / Odyssey in that new Mon/Tue lineup.

That would work in old days, but nowadays are broadcast ratings so low that those promos in Thursday lineup we'll be seen by only 2% A18-49ers, give or take.

But it is what is, and it seems to me it's better (less bad) choice than only other option they had: To roll out entire midseason schedule this week with big Super Bowl promotion. But then:
1. Promotion during SB would be dispersed among many shows.
2. The Voice hiatus would be too short.
3. They still wouldn't be to launch new Sunday lineup now (because of Grammys and Oscars).

So I think they did right, picked less bad out of two not good options.

Spot said...

Yes, that's broadly how it works. Of course, different rules apply to heavily serialised or extremely low-rated shows (Til Death) which aren't likely to do well in off-net syndication.

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