Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 2/24/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: There must have been some weird preemptions, as there were several atypical adjustments; NCIS (2.3), NCIS: New Orleans (2.0), Fresh Off the Boat (1.8) and New Girl (1.3) all went down. Only The Voice (3.9) went up.
  • NBC's The Voice (3.8) had a solid Tuesday return, growing by a tenth vs. the one-hour Tuesday premiere from last spring (though it was slightly below the 4.1 fall Tuesday premiere). But it didn't seem to much affect the one-hour series finale of Parks and Recreation (1.6). This was a two-season high and up about 40% vs. the hour of originals last week, but it probably wouldn't have done much worse (at least in the demo) in its usual 8/7c slot.
  • The story for the competitors was pretty similar to how it played out on Monday; namely, ABC and Fox were almost remarkably resilient. This was particularly good news for Fresh Off the Boat (1.9), which was dead even at a very good number against two more points of NBC competition. Week two of Repeat After Me (1.3) and the Agent Carter finale (1.3) each lost a tenth. Fox saw a small drop for MasterChef Junior (1.6) but no change for New Girl (1.4) and The Mindy Project (1.1).
  • Again, CBS took a minor hit for the combo of NCIS (2.4) and NCIS: New Orleans (2.0), but the week-to-week numbers don't look bad because they had already taken noticeable drops the week before. Meanwhile, Person of Interest (1.7) was above average at 10/9c as its main drama competitor Chicago Fire sat out for the night.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Fresh Off the Boat 1.8 40% -5%-0.1n/a 4/6 n/a -5% -22% 1.9
Repeat After Me 1.3 43% -7%-0.1-0.1 2/2 n/a -7% -46% 1.4
Agent Carter 1.3 41% -7%-0.1-0.1 5/7 n/a -7% -49% 1.4
Forever 1.0 27% -9%-0.1-0.1 12/16 n/a +25% -5% 1.3
ABC:+0%-35%
NCIS 2.3 17% -12%-0.3n/a 15/16 -12% -12% -13% 2.4
NCIS: New Orleans 1.9 18% -5%-0.1-0.3 15/16 n/a -5% -17% 1.8
Person of Interest 1.7 22% +6%+0.1-0.1 3/16 -6% +10% -6% 1.7
CBS:-4%-13%
The Voice Tue 3.9 35% n/an/an/a 1/1 +5% +311% +31% 3.7
Parks and Recreation 1.6 49% +45%+0.5+2.7 1/12 +45% +14% -11% 1.5
NBC:+185%+21%
MasterChef Junior 1.6 42% -11%-0.2n/a 6/8 n/a -11% +39% 1.7
New Girl 1.3 58% -7%-0.1-0.2 11/17 -7% -7% -7% 1.6
The Mindy Project 1.1 61% +0%+0.0-0.1 3/17 n/a +0% -15% 1.3
Fox:-8%+12%
TV's Hottest Commercials 0.3 30% n/a -80% -63% 0.4
The Flash (R) 0.3 37% -65% -68% 0.4
CW:-74%-66%
Big5:+13%-10%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

79 comments:

Spot said...

I should have gone for that confident thing on the game for FOTB. It did really well!


Meanwhile, there are some really good year to year trends for some shows that aired last night such as NCIS, POI, New Girl and Mindy! Good for them

Spot said...

Silvio was always right.

Meanwhile, good for FOTB. FOX comedies didn't do and CBS didn't lose that much.

Spot said...

I'm so happy at how FOTB is thriving. Especially because it was a show that ABC didn't even want to pick up. And I do wonder how ABC will play this one out in regards to scheduling their comedies. Will they move a Wednesday comedy (likely blackish) to Tuesdays or premiere a new comedy after FOTB (if it holds, which it will likely do).

Spot said...

I definitely like the idea of pairing FOTB and Black-ish, but I'm a little torn on what order they should air in. I tend to lean toward leaving FOTB where it is and putting Black-ish after it, but if Black-ish noticeably rebounds after Empire ends for the season, then maybe it would make sense to put that in the leadoff spot.

Spot said...

Fresh Off the Boat did great, again. It really surprised me, again.

Assuming this translates into True around 2.2, then through 6 episodes FOTB will be only 4% behind Black-ish (True 2.10 to 2.18).
FOTB could actually be above Black-ish in True after 13 episodes, considering Black-ish was in a slump during episodes 9 to 13.
I'm starting to consider changing my mock schedule for Tuesday 8 PM from Black-ish / FOTB to FOTB / Black-ish.

Spot said...

I'd like to tweak my past suggestions: now I think ABC should go Fresh off the Boat | black-ish instead of the other way around next season. FOTB would be a stronger lead-in than local programming and gives black-ish a higher HUT-hour. Either way, a diversity comedy block is the right move here next season for ABC.

Even Repeat After Me did decently even though filler-like reality shows tend to fall apart after Week 2, and especially against stronger reality shows (see: Splash, Celebrity Wife Swap, The Taste).

Has the median age for The Voice gone up in successive seasons? I'm just curious if that's why previously resilient shows like NCIS are increasingly take it on the chin. An older-skewing Voice is a bigger threat to CBS than ABC, a very funky statement to make considering who airs Dancing with the Stars.

Spot said...

FotB, possibly, seeing as it's holding on atm.

Spot said...

LOL, no. I picked over 7 times in 7 NBC Spot's questions. And only after being 1-for-7 in those, I learned it pays off to go under on NBC questions.

Spot said...

Pretty much, NBC is doing badly.

Spot said...

ABC 2015 comedy schedule:
TUE:
FOTB/ black-ish
WED:
The Middle/ The Goldbergs/ Modern Family/ new comedy

Possibility of this happening?

Spot said...

This sounds good, it's possible, we'll just have to wait and see.

Spot said...

It's been holding on. So far, ABC looks better on Tuesdays than it did in the Fall by comparison.

Spot said...

Well, what would you put at 9 then? A new drama? A veteran drama?

Spot said...

You got it, dude!

Spot said...

A veteran perhaps? Tuesdays is still a work in progress, but FotB is a step in a right direction.

Spot said...

New drama. That hour is drama-light with New Girl/Mindy Project, NCIS: NoLa, and a comedy block from NBC. Even if NBC shoves The Voice down an hour it's a reasonable ask to go against a CBS spin-off since NBC will go The Voice | Comedy Block | Chicago Fire again since it's the best launch-pad the network can give a sitcom.

Spot said...

It is a first tier ABC comedy at this point, it's holding up well.

Spot said...

SHIELD is marching to the beat of its own ratings drum and is an outlier on its network, much like How I Met Your Mother was on CBS. The difference is HIMYM had so much volume that it could support something like 2 Broke Girls or Rules of Engagement. SHIELD doesn't have that. I'd rather see a new drama in a higher-HUT hour and potentially help SHIELD with an actual lead-in.

Spot said...

That's OK. I'm not against SHIELD to 10 PM, I'm just saying it has minuses, as well as pluses.

I don't know which new drama would fit at Tuesday 9 PM, but ABC ordered 12 drama pilots, so surely some would. Allow me a joke: Rush Hour certainly would fit, but it's a CBS pilot.

Spot said...

I know you love that theory and while I understand the pros, I think it has some minuses too. Particularly, I still think you undervalue Shield's numbers a bit too much. Depending on how it comes back for the Spring run and baring a huge Castle rebound, it should still finish the season as a top 5 ABC drama both in raw numbers and TRUE strength wise. And 3 out of those 5 are TGIT so I am not sure ABC should kick a show like that to 10pm with a shaky 9pm support system. To put it into perspective: Shield finished the fall season performing at 90% of ABC's drama average. Fresh off the Boat is performing at 100% of ABC's comedy average. There is a 10% gap but their strengths aren't that different despite perception around here being vastly different - I think expectations for the show's ratings (Which are irrelevant at the end of the day) are playing a trick on you.

All of this said, like I started by saying, I do get where you are coming from but I would rather they give it a shot first of leading into something. And no, I don't count Forever because I mean something that actually makes sense pairing wise. If it doesn't work, then they can send it to 10pm at midseason and launch a new thing at 9pm by then.

By the way, where do you put Castle/Nashville in that scenario? Do you send both to Sundays?

Spot said...

What do you do with Castle in that scenario though? Do you give it Mondays again or send both Castle and Nashville to Sundays?

Spot said...

Once again, Castle is not scheduling problem at all.
There will be 3 new dramas in ABC fall schedule (between pilots and midseason renewals). Those 3 will be scheduled in one of following timeslots (depending on compatibility with lead-in and competition) : Monday 10 PM, Tuesday (9 or 10 PM), Wednesday 10 PM, Sunday 9 PM. Castle will simply get remaining, 4th timeslot. I highly doubt Castle will get Sunday 9 PM, but it's possible.

So ABC is not a bit bothered about Castle timeslot, and neither am I.

Spot said...

Fair enough

Spot said...

I can even envision ABC's new slogans next year: TGIAWW, Thank God It's All White Wednesday and TGIET, Thank God It's Ethnic Tuesday :) Yes, I am joking!!!

Spot said...

Cristela really doesn't do so bad when you consider its lead-in


Tuesday 9pm : New multi-cam / Cristela.


Move Shield somewhere.

Spot said...

I don't think it's a big deal to move a show if it remains on the same night.

Spot said...

A self starter too, leading off the night. I'd say that is remarkable for a new sitcom in today's environment.

Spot said...

Nobody said it's a big deal.
It's just that any move should include clear advantages over staying put. Even if it's a wash in ratings, it's a loss because some resources are used on advertising that move,

And here we have case where it's not clear if pluses outweigh minuses,

Spot said...

Yeah, but Shield really hasn't been a good lead-in for anything.

Spot said...

I assume the median age for both Idol and Voice has been growing each year. These are evolving into our grandmother's singing reality shows. I suppose it's possible that The Voice is poaching some NCIS fans but it is also possible NCIS is just losing viewers naturally since it's been on the air for what seems to be forever.

Spot said...

You mean the W25-54 family comedy and W25-54 procedural they've put after it? Shocker that a M18-34 serial drama hasn't been a good lead-in for those!

Spot said...

I think it's too early to tell, because SHIELD is a male skewing show in the sea of ABC female skewing shows (I think Shark Tank is only other their show not skewing 60+% female).

But, yes, if they plan to put female oriented drama on Tuesday again, then SHIELD would be of little to none help to that hypothetical newbie, so SHIELD might as well go to 10 PM.

Spot said...

Nashville: Sundays at 10:00. It's the drama that ABC is least invested in, so give it the worst slot.

Castle: Wednesdays at 10:00. If ABC moves black-ish as we are suggesting the network do, don't have a giant question mark for the final 90 minutes of primetime. Sundays at 9:00 isn't outside the realm of possibility, especially since Castle is used to facing the NFL anyway, but then it's a very fragmented night -- fantasy drama leading into a old-skewing procedural leading into a soap. Let's not recreate ABC 2013-2014 Tuesdays for 2015-2016 Sundays.

Spot said...

Cristela is doing bad in Spot's True. It's floating between 1.0 to 1.4 in True in last few episodes, so recent average is around 1.2.
From FOTB is doing close to 2.0 in True on Tuesday with 1.8-1.9 in A18-49, I'm concluding Cristela would do 1.2 on Tuesday, give or take a tenth. Which is unacceptable low level.

Spot said...

That still wouldn't work because of Modern Family, that and the obvious backlash. XD.

Spot said...

I agree. Cristela should have worked and it had okay initial ratings and also came out okay in January but other than that it just hasn't done enough to justify being brought back. I am convinced something much cheaper like Repeat After Me would do the same or better as it is doing on Fridays.

Spot said...

ABC might have found a nice utility player in cheap Repeat After Me. Only losing a tenth week to week in its second outing in the 18-49 demo but actually gaining 43% in the age group 12-34 (according to Variety) against stronger reality competitor, The Voice, means it is connecting with a youthful audience which is promising.

Spot said...

I agree. It's going a bit undocumented but it is very positive. It is probably bad news for comedy wanting to be renewed for backups a la Suburgatory since this one will probably be used for that role.

Spot said...

Fair enough option. I don't particularly enjoy the idea of moving Castle to a slot that should still be relatively high priority like Wednesdays at 10 is but I understand the rationale.

Spot said...

The Goldbergs is a W25-54 family comedy? Does that mean Shield didn't give The Goldbergs (a family which has four males & 2 females) some kind of male audience?

Spot said...

To be fair, ABC 1st tier is Modern Family on its own little island
Then they have Middle, Goldbergs, Blackish, and Boat all around the same level
Last Man Standing do solid for Friday
Then Cristela...
Basically they have 6 renewal comedies and Cristela on the air. Not many "tiers"

Spot said...

And not bad at all considering how much everyone else is struggling with comedy.

Spot said...

The only ones struggling with comedy is FOX and NBC.


CBS is also doing pretty well with comedies (although they clearly have a shortage of comedy anchors for all those comedies hours.

Spot said...

It means the young dudes watching Shield are not interested in watching a family comedy.

Spot said...

CBS has one mega hit comedy and then has 3 solid comedies (Mike and Molly, Mom and 2BG). That's still quite good yes, but 1) They have clearly been trending downwards on the comedy front as opposed to ABC which has been trending upwards and 2) They have been struggling a lot in terms of launching new comedies. MM isn't exactly a very young show. ABC has 3 renewable comedies that are from this year or last year. CBS has one. That matter.

But overall I take your point that CBS is also still doing quite well, yes!

Spot said...

FOTB is a very very good surprise on the ABC front.


Especially since they didn't even want it. lol

Spot said...

or the local news, probably. ABC has painted itself into a corner.

Spot said...

Or maybe used as a mindless summer series that could easily be used to fill one hour.

Spot said...

This is disappointing result for Parks and Recreation. It couldn't even do better than Parenthood, which is the best comparison to Parks final season. I mean this is a show who has already aired a 1 hour finale in the 10 PM slot before.

Spot said...

Perhaps as ABC kept promoting "Frozen's Kristen Bell" and "Superstar Justin Bieber" brought in a 12-34 crowd this week

Spot said...

I never really got why Parks and Recreation got labeled as a "niche" comedy. For most of Parks and Recreation's run, I lived in a small Midwest town (Not unlike Pawnee, Indiana) and in my town Parks was more popular than reflected by the ratings. I knew quite a few people who had never seen "niche" Community, 30 Rock, or The Office, but watched Parks and Recreation every single week. And these were the type of people who loved NCIS and The Big Bang Theory (which there is nothing wrong with, just they aren't considered "niche").

Spot said...

I think ABC should give Repeat After Me a special airing after a 90 minute Dancing With the Stars later in the season. Preferably on a night that Castle is repeating. It would be relatively low risk and could give it a wider audience. Just a thought.

Spot said...

FOTB, NCIS, NCISO, NG, TV's Hottest Commercials were adjusted down one tenth.


Very odd.

Spot said...

Surely another glitch :)

Spot said...

I can't tell if that was sarcastic.

Spot said...

Just kidding

Spot said...

Oh okay. I just find how all these shows saw downward adjustments. Even those that usually adjust up (NCIS)

Spot said...

Better said, Disney cornered them.

Spot said...

You mean Mike & Molly isn't a young skewing show, right? This is season 5 of Mike & Molly. The Middle and Modern Family are in season 6.
But your point about launching new comedies is true. Because HIMYM, TAAHM, M&M, and TBBT were all on the rise in 2011-12 it was easy to forget that CBS only renewed one comedy in "The Year of Comedy". ABC got 3 (Suburgatory, Last Man Standing, Apt 23). Even if they all burned out pretty fast.
2011-12:
CBS - 2 Broke Girls ABC - Suburgatory, Last Man Standing, Apt 23
2012-13:
CBS - Nada ABC - The Neighbors
2013-14:
CBS - Mom, The Millers ABC - The Goldbergs
2014-15:
CBS - Maybe the Odd Couple ABC - Probably Blackish and Fresh Off the Boat
Suburgatory, Apt 23, and The Neighbors are already gone and Last Man Standing isn't a 100% lock to return.
The Millers is gone and I'm not optimistic on the Odd Couple.
2 Broke Girls and Last Man Standing have been reduced to solid players.
The only real comedy bright spot here is sophomore bounces of Mom and more importantly the Goldbergs.
...Sorry for the novel. I think I got sidetracked on what my original point was.

Spot said...

There was probably a preemption in there somewhere for some stuff that rated lower than these programs did. No significant changes in terms of who had a good or bad night anyway, although I would add that the drops for the NCIS twins are something to consider.

Spot said...

I didn't hear of a pre-emption but I guess you never really hear about *all* of them.


But yes, the NCIS twins drops was the really shocking thing to see.

Spot said...

Adjustments make the NCIS twins look worse, losing more than it seemed like.

Spot said...

I think people underestimate what 2 Broke Girls is doing this year a lot. Probably it is because of how well it started setting the world of expectations on fire but on a relative landscape, the show is still doing mighty well on what is a very tough slot for most of the season. It did terribly last year but this year I find it a strong show. It feels sexier to talk about the strength of The Goldbergs but I would argue it isn't a stronger show than 2 Broke Girls. They pull similar numbers and 2BG has a much more difficult situation. Same goes for the likes of The Middle, Blackish, Mom and Men. In fact, when all is said and done, I would argue that 2 Broke Girls is probably the third strongest comedy on TV right now. This is a bit of a random ramble, but it just felt wrong for me seeing you listing 2BG in the same tier as LMS.

Elsewhere, and back to your original a point, I meant that Mike and Molly is not a young show, yes. Not an old one, but not young either, and it has that pesky little detail of having a big movie star attached which could very well limit its lifespan. I also wouldn't argue that MF and TM are young shows, no. Again, not old shows, but not young per se either. If you compare just pure young shows with pure young shows, then ABC takes it clearly since it has The Goldbergs, Blackish and Fresh off the Boat and CBS only has Mom. If TOC proves to be renewal worthy this could change but it has to get there first.

Also, if we want to go completely off the topic, CBS' "age" issue was a big factor in dramas as well before this year! If we make an ABC-CBS comparison at the end of last season in terms of dramas considering only stuff that was still viable and not weekend dramas or stuff renewed for syndication et all. reasons:

Ancient Dramas ABC: Grey's Anatomy
Ancient Dramas CBS: NCIS, Criminal Minds



Old Dramas ABC: Castle
Old Dramas CBS: NCIS LA



Young Dramas ABC: Once Upon a Time, Revenge, Scandal, Shield
Young Dramas CBS: Person of Interest


Adding Scorpion and New Orleans is a big accomplishment for them and it really needed to happen or else they would be in big trouble!

Spot said...

I don't see them going out of their way to increase sampling for a filler piece of scheduling like that. Not saying it would be a bad move, just that I think it is unlikely considering how little they've seemed to care about the show thus far.

Spot said...

Humor is so subjective. I know what makes me laugh and I obviously don't have a clue what makes a broad mass audience laugh since I find The Big Bang Theory unfunny and mostly unwatchable. All of the shows you cite are inhabited by very quirky, oddball characters delivering lots of humor imbued with irony and meta references. In the great Seinfeld tradition, most of the episodes of these shows are about nothing other than groups of oddball characters reacting to one another; the story arcs all seem mostly irrelevant. Bottom line, I don't think quirky and oddball appeals beyond a very specific niche audience which is why a show like Parks and Rec would be better suited to a cable or online audience.

Spot said...

I have to disagree with 2 Broke Girls being the #3 comedy on TV. It might be, but I don't think it is very clear.
2 Broke Girls: 2.15 in Raw, 2.18 in true
The Middle: 2.06 in Raw, 2.15 in true
The Goldbergs: 2.25 in Raw, 2.18 in true
The gap between The Big Bang Theory, Modern Family, and everything else is pretty jarring. I think The Middle, Goldbergs, and 2 Broke Girls are all about equal with no clear winner.
Anyways, 2 Broke Girls is hurt because of its negative trajectory. It's may improve, but it still at -17% y2y. Its first 8:00 airing in season 1 it pulled off a 4.2 and last Monday it did a 2.1 at 8:00. Still a strong show, but its kinda crazy how in just 3 seasons it weakened so much!

Spot said...

I give you a point in terms of comedy ranking. MF and TBBT are clearly miles ahead of everything else and maybe yes 2BG really isn't stronger than The Goldbergs and The Middle but my general point still stands that it feels wrong to me to have people commending on those two ABC comedies and their strength and continuing dismissing 2BG. Yes, I understand what you mean in terms of its trajectory and how much it has fallen and I doubt it ever becomes a mega hit again but for the time being, its trajectory is kind of irrelevant and the show is still pretty strong. I think a lot of us (yes, I include myself in it) let expectation of the show influence the perception of its actual strength.

Spot said...

"Young Dramas CBS: Person of Interest"


Elementary?

Spot said...

I have a hard time being objective on these shows. I can't stand 2 Broke Girls and consider the Middle and Goldbergs the best comedies on TV.

Spot said...

That's why I said stuff that was still viable and wasn't renewed for syndication et all. reasons ;) But if you want to add in Elementary fine, as long as you add in Nashville, since the situation was pretty much the same. So my point would still stand.

Spot said...

At least the Goldbergs are Jewish!

Spot said...

I don't watch any of them so I think I am on the clear here ;)

Spot said...

In much the same way 'indie' used to be a term used to describe music or films as independent from major labels or studios but has become the name for films or music of a certain genre even if they are not actually independent in the traditional sense.

'Niche' when relating to tv has become a term used to describe shows which fall in a certain genre or contain certain common elements rather than a signifier specifically of how niche an audience it gets. For example I don't think a multi camera sitcom with a laugh track about a family would be described as niche even if it got numbers like 1.0 A18-49 and 2.5m total viewers every week.

For another example The Office (original UK version) is often stated as being the starting point of a certain niche sitcom movement, but it was actually a very popular show getting 6.5 million UK viewers (10% of the entire country) for the final episode. It was and is described as niche because it lacked a laugh track and didn't rely on traditional jokes, but I would argue that if you look at it through a different lens it could equally be described as broad appeal based on its generic premise of being about people who work in an office (in fact people often commented on how relatable some of the characters were).

Spot said...

Well you live in the Midwest. I'd assume a show that focuses on midwest life would get popular attention there. Especially when the only other show that focuses on it is The Middle, and that show barely brings up its Indiana roots.

Spot said...

Could've been for snow coverage along the mid-Atlantic, even though the big storm there doesn't hit until tonight.

Spot said...

You say quirky and oddball in the Seinfeld tradition doesn't appeal beyond a specific niche audience despite the fact that Seinfeld itself was in the top 5 highest rated series of the season for most of its run. Maybe mainstream tastes have changed with time, but I'm not as sure a shows tone is as critical to a shows ratings as you are.

Spot said...

Seinfeld was brilliant and unlike anything that had ever appeared on television at the time. I don't know if mainstream tastes have changed as much as the amount of edgy and quirky comedy content now available on cable networks and online since Seinfeld left the airways 16 years ago. There have certainly been ethnic demographic changes in television consumption, too since Seinfeld so I imagine that has impacted mainstream tastes to a degree. Parks and Rec, for instance, might not seem as funny or relatable to a now larger Latino television audience as much as it might amuse what I assume is a mostly white, non-Latino fan base..

Spot said...

When they say "niche," they're being polite. What they want to say is "nerdy bullshit."

Spot said...

Does this explain why "live" ratings are so important?

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