Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Sunday 2/22/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Oscars inched a bit higher to 11.0 in finals, but the year-to-year picture was the same: down 16% from last year's 13.1 final. The red carpet stuff was down around 10%. The Walking Dead had a noticeable bounce to 6.93, marking its first positive year-to-year point this spring.
  • UPDATE: Time zone-adjusted fast nationals have Oscar at 36.6 million viewers and a 10.8 rating. That's down 16% from the time zone number last year, and it's not impossible that it could adjust below the all-time 18-49 low in finals (a 10.7 in 2008).
    • The grand finale to Sunday event season was the Academy Awards (34.6 million viewers, 10.3 A18-49), the only program of any real consequence on the broadcast networks. This preliminary 18-49 result from 8:30 to 11:00 is down 15% year-to-year, another somewhat underwhelming result in what has been a rather soft season for awards shows. Since it aired live in all time zones and stretched way out of primetime, expect adjustments. (The ceremony adjusted from 12.1 prelim -> 12.9 time zone-adjusted prelim -> 13.1 final last year.)
  • Among the repeats, only 7:30 (1.0) and 8:00 (1.2) episodes of The Simpsons broke a 1.0. Somewhat notably, Simpsons actually beat its original number from a week ago (and tied the one from two weeks ago). Perhaps the departure of Mulaney helps. 

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Oscar Red Carpet p1 2.7 26% -13% +108% +93% 2.8
Oscar Red Carpet p2 4.1 31% -9% +173% +173% 3.2
Oscar Red Carpet p3 6.4 34% -7% +300% +357% 4.2
Academy Awards 11.0 37% -16% +614% +759% 6.9
ABC:+464%+537%
60 Minutes 0.8 16% -33%-0.4n/a 20/21 n/a -27% -40% 1.0
Movie: Act of Valor 0.6 24% n/a -44% -12% 1.0
CBS:-38%-27%
Dateline (R) 0.9 21% -70% -62% 1.1
Chicago Fire (R) 0.4 21% -95% -88% 0.6
Law and Order: SVU (R) 0.5 26% -94% -85% 0.9
Chicago PD (R) 0.6 27% -91% -76% 1.1
NBC:-91%-82%
Bob's Burgers (R) 0.8 51% +100% -27% 1.1
The Simpsons (R) 1.0 57% +67% -9% 1.1
The Simpsons (R) 1.2 52% +9% -20% 1.3
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R) 0.8 58% -11% -65% 1.2
Family Guy (R) 0.9 59% -25% -65% 1.2
Bob's Burgers (R) 0.9 59% +0% -65% 1.3
Fox:+10%-50%
Big4:+7%+45%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

49 comments:

Spot said...

A weaker Academy Awards was kind of a given since the only big box office movie nominated for multiple big prizes was American Sniper. And given that the scuttlebutt was that the nominations were going to be the reward itself, that left a lot of indie-esque movies that most people had not seen.


The bigger mystery is why the award show continues to start at 8:30. That really needs to stop so the show can end before midnight. And, to go even more off-topic, the segment order really needs to change; I really like Lady Gaga's Sound of Music medley tribute, but why did it have to come so late?

Spot said...

They should have cut the weird Adam Levine performance at the beginning. This isn't the reality program's result show, they don't need random performances for padding. I agree it should start earlier, no one needs to watch 90 Minutes of Red Carpet.

Spot said...

Not much ratings to discuss, so I'll post this because I haven't seen much on any other sites.
ABC is premiering a new 2 hour unscripted series "In An Instant" on March 6th from 9-11 on Friday before moving to its regular Saturday 8-10 timeslot on March 7th. I guess ABC is serious about not having non-comedy repeats basically everywhere. Also, I've never seen a show do a special preview on Friday like it was a better slot before. Found it kinda funny.

Spot said...

That Simpsons result is seriously messed up. So strange that it beats its original from last week.

Spot said...

Bob's Burgers *may* do better in its new 7:30 slot than its old 9:30 one. It will be out of the way of Walking Dead and Game of Thrones, and will no longer have to face big events or NFL overrun. At the very least, it should help give The Simpsons something resembling a lead in.

Spot said...

Well, preview is getting Shark Tank lead-in. Not too shabby for Friday.

Spot said...

The Cleveland Show did that a few times at 7:30. It would get a 1.3 for an repeat and return for a 1.2 for an original. It is crazy though. That kind of result is usually only seen on shows like Hollywood Game Night, Whose Line Is It Anways, and Off Their Rockers, whose originals are basically impossible to distinguish between repeats

Spot said...

It is? I thought it had a 2 hour preview. Is Shark Tank shifting down an hour?

Spot said...

I guess FOX should've burned off Mulaney on some random Saturday instead.

Spot said...

I'm loving to see the networks at least trying something on Saturdays.

Spot said...

Soft Oscars ratings + repeats all around (even on Showtime) should bode well for The Walking Dead ratings, I guess.
Up 10% to 6.8 ? Or I'm too optimistic here?

Spot said...

Yes, but only for this occasion, I think.

Spot said...

ABC also aired two seasons of Bet On Your Baby on Saturday. And the second season was in summer to boot. So it's not horribly out of character at this point.

Spot said...

Bet On Your Baby is 100% Walmart subsidized. Maybe this show is too, I dunno

Spot said...

"In an Instant" AKA "Moment of Truth" description:
"A grizzly bear attack; a bridge collapse; a plane crash... It can happen anywhere at any time -- in an instant, life can change forever and that moment will define who you are." ...blah-blah-blah... "Ordinary people who have watched their lives flash before their eyes, stared certain death in the face and overcame it."

Moment of Instant Flop?

Spot said...

I felt a wave of horror wash over me when I realized where they were going with that Sound of Music thing. It was unnecessary overall (although I liked seeing Julie Andrews), but like you said, it might not have been so bad at 9:30. But at 11:30? Madness.

And yes, why doesn't this show start at 8? I understand that it's only 5pm PST, but it's going to be incredibly early no matter what on the West Coast, so they should cut us East Coasters some slack with that extra half hour.

Spot said...

I agree with you that it is funny that the Friday slot is taken like a better slot for a preview, I don't remember it happening before. It's not unprecedented though - after all, they've aired Bet on Your Baby for two seasons there and Sing Your Face Off as well this summer. I like that they are trying something though

Spot said...

Yes exactly, that's the type of behavior I would expect from those shows, not actually the toons. I think last week's rating was really an anomaly created by the insane overlap in audience with the SNL special!

Spot said...

Not really, TWD doesn't have SNL's massive competition to deal with this time around.

Spot said...

I take an over on that line. Judging by what happened with the cartoons, I am guessing the male audience last week was all wrapped around the SNL special, so they should have been available last night even with the Oscars on

Spot said...

I do prefer the performance snippets of the Best Original Song versus a medley; trying to do a mashup of Glory and Everything is Awesome would have been the weirdest thing ever.


ABC should just do, at most, an hour of red carpet coverage.

Spot said...

They really should have as it was getting a 0.4. Oh well, it's over and done with.

Spot said...

What kind of bio. mess is that? lol

Spot said...

Well, it is fitting considering the disasters it listed.

Spot said...

In an Instant is coming from ABC News instead of something like a subsidy reality show. So they are spending some kind of money on it.

Spot said...

It feels even more egregious since the Golden Globes, Emmys, and Grammys all start at 8:00.

The only possible explanation I can see is because of the traffic jams the Academy Awards generates and how they are larger than the other award shows. To that I say: get there earlier. If you know traffic is going to suck, get up and moving sooner instead of making a late dramatic red carpet entrance. Your outfit isn't that precious.

Spot said...

Yeah, I know. And there was NBA All-Star Game last week (2.5 A18-49 on TNT, but 3.1 total with simulcast on TBS). However, TWD isn't really known for ratings spikes outside of premiere / finale of 1st / 2nd half of the season. That's why I'm conservative.

Spot said...

I take your point but I would argue that the show also isn't known to have such huge drops like the one it had last week, hence the lack of a proper precedent for us to go by here, IMO. But we shall see tomorrow.

Spot said...

The only show that is quoted more on the internet than the Simpsons is Saturday Night Live, so I would have to agree. Brooklyn Nine-Nine had a similar issue with its star being recognizable FROM Saturday Night Live.

Spot said...

Perhaps if this does decently (at least twice BOYB), this could replace the Taste as Thursday filler?

Spot said...

I don't get why ABC keeps trying to stick series on Saturday, but hey, if this works, who am I to judge?

Spot said...

ABC should host a parade before the Oscars -- balloons, floats, and limos.

Spot said...

Yeah the B99 situation is even more obvious in terms of crossover audience last week. It also had the double whammy of it having a spike in competition (highlighted by a star recognizable from said competition like you said) AND a very depressed lead-in.

Spot said...

NBC has a NHL hockey game this Saturday, though it would make much more sense to have a Sunday Night Hockey games to complement SNF instead of Dateline reruns.

Spot said...

I have a theory (that especially applies to strong repeaters like Animation Domination), that in circumstances of massive competition or heavy viewer depression, that difference in an original and a repeat is basically meaningless.
Here's a few examples. Against the Super Bowl, a repeat of America's Funniest Home Videos got a .5 rating. If ABC had opted to air an original instead, I have no reason to believe it would have done any better than the repeat against the big game.
During the summer, Primetime: What Would You Do? usually grew out of its Shark Tank repeat lead in. ABC opted to air an original on the 4th of July. It dropped massively from a 1.3 to a .5 while its Shark Tank repeat lead in dropped from a 1.2 to a .6. It dropped more than the repeat! I guarantee that if they aired a repeat it would have done basically the same. (Viewing depression was down to a mere 17.6%). This is supported by later on 7/25 when it repeated at 1.0, holding all of its Shark Tank lead in.
If FOX had aired repeats against SNL, they would have probably done basically the same as originals did.

Spot said...

I agree. Especially since Dateline is already airing on Saturdays.

Spot said...

I don't see it going up that much. The Walking Dead usually isn't that affected by the competition. But this show doesn't follow regular rules, so maybe.

Spot said...

Great idea, at the very least it'll be more exciting than the show itself.

Spot said...

Not suprised about the Oscars. Way less buzz about the movies and Ellen is a bigger and better choice.

Spot said...

Question for the Voice and/or The Night Shift?

Spot said...

I think Spot publishes his questions at 2 PM ET, only exception being live sports questions.

Spot said...

The Oscars was adjusted to a 10.8 in the fast nationals.

Spot said...

It's just been posted.

Spot said...

If there is anything remotely true about that, the decision of airing originals on those occasions is even more retarded since you are suggesting that repeats would get roughly the same as originals do but that on a normal night (when they will be forced to air a repeat instead) these will rate much lower than what originals would do. Oh well, Fox.

Spot said...

THR: NBC Re-Upping Entertainment President Jennifer Salke

The article also states that Greenblatt's contract runs until 2017.

Spot said...

Does anyone know what broadcast shows are being promoted on The Walking Dead? Because I was watching BCS, and I saw some American Crime and Secrets &Lies promos.

Spot said...

6.9. You were close!

Spot said...

Yeah. Close here, but in Spot's official questions I'm usually not close at all.

Spot said...

Countdown to Oscars aired as a 1 hour special on Tuesday, and repeated as a half hour show on Saturday. How strange.

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