Wednesday, February 4, 2015

The Question, Wednesday 2/4/15: Will Viewers Get On Board with Fresh Off the Boat?

ABC continues its midseason rollout tonight with a Wednesday preview for family comedy Fresh Off the Boat. It's getting the "Grover Cleveland" treatment, airing two non-consecutive episodes after usual anchors The Middle and Modern Family, before heading to Tuesday to fend for itself next week. The show is getting some pretty decent critical acclaim, but it would do well to attract some long-term viewers tonight because self-starting on Tuesday will not be easy. Will viewers get on board with Fresh Off the Boat? That's The Question for Wednesday, February 4, 2015.

Post-ABC Comedy Launches ABC Comedies This Season
4.4 (Cougar Town, 9/23/09, 4.2 Modern)
3.7 (Mr. Sunshine, 2/9/11, 5.1 Modern)
2.8 (Happy Endings, 4/13/11, 3.9 Modern)
2.9 (Apartment 23, 4/11/12, 4.2 Modern)
3.2 (The Neighbors, 9/26/12, 5.5 Modern)
2.8 (Suburgatory s2, 10/17/12, 4.7 Modern)
2.9 (How to Live, 4/3/13, 4.2 Modern)
3.2 (Super Fun Night, 10/2/13, 4.2 Modern)
1.7 (Mixology, 2/26/14, 3.1 Modern)
3.3 (Black-ish, 9/24/14, 3.8 Modern)

2.5 (Better with You, 9/22/10, 2.7 Middle)
3.3 (Suburgatory, 9/28/11, 3.1 Middle)
2.2 (Back in the Game, 9/25/13, 2.5 Middle)
2.4 (The Goldbergs s2, 9/24/14, 2.1 Middle)
2.1/2.03/2.2 (The Middle prem/avg/last)
2.4/2.23/2.3 (The Goldbergs prem/avg/last)
3.3/2.48/1.9 (Black-ish premiere/avg/last)
3.8/3.35/3.0 (Modern Family prem/avg/last)

Though The Goldbergs has built from The Middle most weeks this season, that growth has not always happened historically, even for series premieres. If Fresh Off the Boat can pull that off, ABC may really have something here, but I expect it to be behind what The Goldbergs typically does (and thus a bit behind its The Middle lead-in). However, beating recent 9:30 results from the softening Black-ish seems more doable, and it might even do so by a decent margin.

Fresh Off the Boat (8:30) PLUS Fresh Off the Boat (9:30) Over/Under: 4.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. All results based on final ratings rounded to the nearest tenth.

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