Friday, February 27, 2015

Best Case/Worst Case, Early March 2015: The Last Man on Earth, CSI: Cyber, American Crime and more!


Best Case/Worst Case is back to preview one of the busiest five-day stretches of midseason. We're covering just the seven premieres from Sunday to Thursday here. There should be another post in a couple more weeks or so.



Secrets and Lies (NEW!)
Premieres March 1

Timeslot OccupantsResurrection
Avg Orig Avg
1.38 1.37 1.25 1.27

Best Case: Never underestimate the power of Oscars promotion. That will help this show become one of those surprising ABC thrillers that surprises in a seemingly tough slot/incompatible pairing. (Think Revenge season one.) It's very close to Once's ratings at a 1.73 and gets renewed.

Worst Case: This feels kind of like the lightweight, pointless ABC Sunday megabombs of the recent past, like Red Widow and Betrayal. The pairing with Once Upon a Time won't do it any favors, and this concept isn't attracting any of its own audience. If the more compatible Resurrection was holding less than half of its Once lead-in, this may be below that threshold very early, even out of a weaker Once. 0.75.

Likeliest: I've made a lot of comparisons in this section, but perhaps the show this feels most like is Fox's Gracepoint, at least for the concept. We know how that ended up going, and it had more critical backing than this one seems to. This might be able to start off better than Gracepoint, but I don't think the pairing with Once will do it any favors, and so the end result will be Gracepoint-esque: a struggle to break 1.0. 1.01 and dunzo.



The Last Man on Earth (NEW!)
Premieres March 1

Timeslot OccupantsMulaney Bob's Burgers
Avg Orig Avg
1.42 1.41 0.94 1.01 1.32 1.30

Best Case: In The Lego Movie creators we trust! This is a classic "so crazy it just might work" situation. It's got a concept that will attract attention in a crowded landscape, and the Fox Sunday audience is relatively receptive to crazy. It significantly builds on its Brooklyn Nine-Nine lead-in on premiere night and keeps building even when Family Guy returns to the 9/8c hour. 2.00.

Worst Case: What if Mulaney had low-1 lead-ins instead of the upper-1's it usually got at 9:30? That's what will happen here. Fox Sunday became a dumpster fire during Sunday event season, and it's not really gonna bounce back. 0.81.

Likeliest: I don't particularly see any of the three March 1 premieres breaking out, but this is the one that "worries" me most. It's one of those big, simple concepts that can click. On the other hand, it's up against the gold standard in post-apocalyptic television for its first month. And despite good early reviews, I'm not at all sold that this premise won't wear very thin very fast. (It's one of those shows I really wish I had seen!) The other issue here is that the Fox cartoons haven't aired under "normal" circumstances in a long time, so it's hard to say how much they will bounce back from the event-depressed numbers. Ultimately, I would guess this attracts a little bit of initial interest, certainly more than Mulaney, and the reviews are good enough that I'm gonna say it can settle fairly close to its Family Guy lead-in, at about what Bob's Burgers would be doing. Maybe that is enough for renewal? 1.30.



Battle Creek (NEW!)
Premieres March 1

Timeslot OccupantsCSI
Avg Orig Avg
1.79 1.39 1.28 1.57

Best Case: CBS is truly embracing the cable/prestige approach to Sunday, and this show has the pedigree in front of and behind the camera to actually draw in a viewership. It may seem like they're throwing it under the bus scheduling-wise, but that's just because the network was so flushed with drama winners. This is another one. 1.75.

Worst Case: No matter how crowded the CBS sked is, they could've done better by this show if they really wanted to. Though its lead-in has critical acclaim, it won't be a good match with The Good Wife audience, and it's hopeless to try to attract its own audience on Sunday. 0.80.

Likeliest: I've been looking forward to this one, but sadly for prediction purposes I have to follow the scheduling. CBS could've and would've (or at least should've) put it almost anywhere else if they thought it could connect with their crime drama audience. It needs a better support system to connect with the CBS base, but it feels too procedural to reel in outside prestige drama viewers. I think the recognizable cast gets it a little ahead of CBS' last newbie effort at 10/9c, NYC 22 (which had a 1.33 raw average / 56 Plus in four Sunday airings three years ago). But not by very much. 1.08.



The Following
Premieres March 2
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.75 -33% marginal 1.79 -2% Monday 9:00

Timeslot OccupantsSleepy Hollow
Avg Orig Avg
1.31 1.56 1.55 1.44

Best Case: As disappointing as The Following's ratings were early last year, it quietly settled at a very consistent level in the second half of the season. That core 1.4-1.5 audience will return, and it may well pick up a little something extra with a darker, more male-skewing lead-in from Gotham. It averages a 1.62, which is actually just above its average from last season if you throw out the football-inflated premiere.

Worst Case: Without that football-inflated premiere, the show would've been down about 40% last season. The show was pretty steady in the second half of season one, too, and that didn't help season two much. Oh yeah, and the hiatus is even longer this time... just shy of ten months! It opens at or very near a series low and settles in the 0.9-1.0 area, marking just over a 40% drop to 0.98.

Likeliest: Last year, The Following was the first time we got a look at a sophomore season for a "limited series," and it was a trajectory that repeated itself in eerily similar fashion many times later in the year. This year, it'll be the first example of what happens in season three. My probably dangerous guess is that the drop won't be quite as bad this time around; there aren't as many casual viewers left in that beaten-down audience from late last season. And Gotham may indeed be more compatible than Bones was (though it only gets original Gotham lead-ins for about half of the season). I still see it continuing to depreciate somewhat, though. 1.24, which is down about 20% from the without-football average.



Hell's Kitchen
Premieres March 3
y2y Label True Sitch 2013-14 Slot
1.67 -19% marginal 2.08 -20% Thursday 8:00

Timeslot OccupantsUtopia Tue MasterChef Junior MasterChef Junior Spring
Avg Orig Avg
1.52 1.56 0.88 1.05 1.66 1.70 1.69 1.73

Best Case: The main thing that made Hell's fall season (1.34) such a disappointment and MasterChef Junior such a big Tuesday success by comparison was the competition from Survivor. That's out of the picture with this move to Tuesday, and it's also back in spring/summer mode which is a more familiar time of year for the show's audience. It has a bit of a revival at 1.65, very close to both last spring/summer as well as MasterChef Junior.

Worst Case: This is a decaying franchise. Throw in DST and competition from The Voice and the show will take another sizable step down from what it was getting in the fall, much less from last spring/summer. 1.15.

Likeliest: It's aired in literally every part of the year, so it won't suffer from the time of year and low viewing as much as many other shows do. But I'm not giving it a higher score than the fall season either. 1.30, down just a bit from the fall average and 22% from last spring/summer.



CSI: Cyber (NEW!)
Premieres March 4

Timeslot OccupantsStalker
Avg Orig Avg
1.53 1.62 1.54 1.56

Best Case: CBS may not have aired the Oscars, but it still got the single best piece of Oscar promotion. CSI: Cyber lead Patricia Arquette took home the hardware in what many have argued was the year's best acting performance in any category. That will have a Viola Davis-like effect on this show's ratings; it builds from its Criminal Minds lead-in on premiere night and remains pretty much in lock-step with that lead-in through the rest of the season. 2.20 and another potential elite drama added to the CBS repertoire.

Worst Case: Based on the ratings for the CSI mothership this season, there isn't much reason to believe the CSI brand is going to bring any real viewership to the table at this point. Arquette's Boyhood really wasn't a major player at the box office anyway. Criminal Minds has had a pretty rough winter, and Empire will still be around depressing the CM ratings in those critical weeks when Cyber premieres. It's at the low end of CBS' drama slate with 50% Minds retention at a 1.04, and CBS finally says goodbye to the CSI name on all fronts.

Likeliest: This show has a few little things going for it: Arquette, relatively light competition and the CSI association. I don't see any of those factors being potent enough to actually generate a hit, but they may keep it from severely disappointing. I see the end result being yet another show in that very crowded third tier, perhaps drifting toward the lower end of it as Stalker did late in the season. Since that level of show seems to be a dime a dozen on CBS right now, I'm doubtful that would be enough. And its raw average will be a bit below Stalker since it's getting a weaker Minds as a lead-in. 1.45.



American Crime (NEW!)
Premieres March 5

Timeslot OccupantsHow to Get Away with Murder
Avg Orig Avg
2.02 3.00 2.98 2.78

Best Case: Shows about race relations have had an incredible track record this season, and this one will be no exception. It's a very worthy TGIT fill-in for How to Get Away with Murder at 10/9c, coming far closer than expected to that show's breakthrough ratings. 2.45, and ABC likely sticks with the exact same Thursday arrangement next season.

Worst Case: American Crime may be topical, but it forgot the thing that has made those other series successful: actual entertainment value. A mass audience just doesn't want to watch something this dire. This show will harken back to Grey's Anatomy's prime years on Thursday when some of the show's crappy lead-outs were getting retention in the 30's. 1.15 and beyond dunzo.

Likeliest: I don't mind ABC's thinking here in giving this the post-Scandal berth. I really believe Secrets & Lies would've just felt like a poor man's TGIT on Thursday and ended up getting rejected in either place, so they're using the big lead-in to swing for the fences with something that will be more unique and presumably more acclaimed. Unfortunately, I don't really see this one connecting either. It may have some thematic similarities, but it just doesn't seem like a tonal match with the soapier, heavily female-skewing shows. It will be below 50% retention of Scandal by the halfway point of the season. I wanted to reheat my "low-end bubble show that the critical acclaim gets renewed" narrative that has worked so miserably on Red Band Society and Fresh Off the Boat. But honestly, I don't see it being quite high enough for that when the dust settles. 1.50, and ABC tries something else here next spring.

38 comments:

Spot said...

I'm relatively optimistic on CSI: Cyber.
In Criminal Minds 10 seasons, it has had two successes after it. CSI: NY and CSI. And Cyber has the right 3 letters to make it work. The audience seems to work with these shows because they are compatible enough to keep the audience watching, but different enough not to seem like a poor man's version of Criminal Minds. Tonally similar Stalker didn't take off and tailor made for compatibility Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior failed too. Why? Because they tried to be Criminal Minds without the likable characters people like it for.
Yes, Criminal Minds has had a tough winter, but it basically had a really tough break. It's Survivor lead in went on hiatus, and then the biggest Freshman drama of the Plus era shows up. I think Survivor's return and the eventual departure of Empire will keep Minds above a 2.0 for the rest of the season. It sucks Cyber didn't come out in 2002, where it would have been a guaranteed hit, but I suprisingly liked the backdoor pilot a lot.
I'll give it a workman's 85% retention and a 1.78 average!

Spot said...

Is it crazy that I think a 1.3 average is optimistic for Last Man on Earth. The Family Guy audience has rejected every live action show that ever went after it, and I'm not sure Family Guy will break a 2.0 for the rest of the season. I see low 50's retention out of a weaker Family Guy. This would be a .97 average and the internet claiming FOX screwed it over when its cancelled ("Look what they did to Firefly!")
Secrets and Lies has no chance of success in my book. At least Resurrection had an extremely appealing premise. Over 2 Billion people on Earth take comfort in a certain famous Resurrection. But this just looks bad. People have rejected American adaptions of a child murder mystery plot (Gracepoint). And Australian adaption where people turn on a man after a child is harmed (The Slap). And the last Australian adaption was a megabomb (Rake). It falls below a 1.0 after episode 2 and Revenge gets swapped in. .87 average

Spot said...

Well it's clear to me what kind of Question we are getting on Sunday. Of the three new shows, I'd throw my lot in with Secrets & Lies as the "best" of a potentially mediocre bunch. S&L is the best set up to succeed due to the Oscars promotion as well as the myriad of ads during TGIT last night, but I expect that we'll go 3-for-3 in United Kingdom show adaptations not succeeding in the States (Gracepoint, The Slap). However, I do at least like Secrets & Lies on Sundays instead of American Crime since the mystery aspect gives it a better fit with Revenge. American Crime, though, is ABC's attempt at Emmy gold and they want it to have a better chance at working. I'm intrigued by both shows, but neither of them feel like they'll be pleasant to watch. That really holds true for Crime as it clearly wants its audience to squirm and start a different kind of water cooler conversation .



Unless Fox is promoting this hard and we aren't aware of it a la Empire, I also don't see much coming from The Last Man on Earth. The best thing going for it is that Fox has become a stronger network thanks to Empire, American Idol, and Gotham's second wind. It needs to hope that the rising tide can lift its boat. Paradoxically, The Following has had too much time off the sked while Hell's Kitchen would benefit from more, and both are going to be dinged for it.


CBS' midseason dramas are all wrapped up in brands. Battle Creek got much more interest once Breaking Bad ended its run in a hot fashion (imagine how Heat would look over the entire series run!), but this feels like a buy the network made to stop anyone else from getting it. The timeslot swap with CSI: Cyber pretty much tells it all: CBS would rather have the money-printing capabilities of the CSI franchise than have to share with Sony over Battle Creek. As for Cyber, it should at least be capable of competing with Chicago PD for 1st in the hour. To make a second season, though, it needs to be at the top end of the bubble come May.

Spot said...

Battle Creek seems like a double edged sword. I have heard good things, but it looks very generic. I can't see the prestige cable types watching a cop show, and this will probably be a bit too off kilter for the regular CBS crowd. I think this is a situation where it will have a small but vocal fanbase that complains on the internet about CBS Screwing it over

Spot said...

The Slap is remake of Australian series. Australia was part of the British Empire, but I think it was long time ago. But yes, 3-for-3 it should be.

Spot said...

This is depressive - all Spot's predictions are in range between 1.00 and 1.50 (with only 2 shows at above 1.30), yet it all sounds realistic, if not a bit too optimistic in some cases (American Crime, The Following).

In fact, the only show I could doing better than Spot's "likeliest" is CSI: Cyber. And all others to settle somewhere between his "worst case" and "likeliest".

Spot said...

Elizabeth II is still their Queen, her image is on their money, and they get the Queen's Birthday as a national holiday. That counts enough for me. :-)

Spot said...

Interesting idea. I remember thinking how well Suspect Behavior and Stalker would perform, but they both flamed out rather quickly. As you said, the characters were unlikable.

CSI: Cyber has a fairly solid cast and from the promos, the characters appear to be likable. With the success of CSI and CSI: NY in the timeslot, CSI: Cyber stands a good chance. It's something I hadn't though about before!

Spot said...

Old Lizzy is still alive? Nice.

I just remembered Secret & Lies country of origin is also Australia. And yet again, that fact is useless. Except for reminding me how bad is my memory, I really should see a doctor about that.

Spot said...

Same here. CSI: Cyber seems to be the most likely to succeed - as in 4/5 seasons to drag it to syndication and then bye-bye - out of this bunch.



I feel like American Crime is the runner-up in this category, while I'm not really feeling the other three shows going forward.



But maybe there's another Empire-like situation on the cards. We can never quite know.

Spot said...

I have to agree with the CSI: Cyber prediction. I think that if this was five years ago when CSI; NY and CSI: Miami were still on the air and CBS was looking for ways to expand the procedural franchise, this would have been a golden opportunity. However, today, CSI: Miami and CSI: NY have ended, CSI is looking like it will end this year, and all of the sudden the question becomes do we really need CSI: Cyber? The answer that I keep coming to is no, we don't. It just seems unnecessary and dragging out the franchise with no real purpose. I also can't see viewers being that excited to expand a franchise that most have seen as lasting long enough.

If Stalker found an audience, I doubt that it would have even been scheduled Wednesdays at 10 PM. Instead, it would have kept its previously scheduled Sunday timeslot. The timeslot upgrade is more of a reflection of Stalker failing than the CSI: Cyber's potential.

Spot said...

As with most March/Spring premieres, there is a lot of airing through orders and essentially burning off to get rid of it by May upfronts.


Last Man On Earth's main problem is the concept. We have a guy who is alone by himself and wondering. That's great, but what is the hook? What gets us watching weekly? It's an Adult Swim concept that lasts about five minutes somehow expanded into a weekly show.


Secrets and Lies seems like every other mystery serial that ABC tries and it struggles to find an audience. It is a waste of what is actually a very good cast.



I gave up on the potential of Battle Creek when they took a typical gritty location and tried to turn it onto a comedic procedural. This concept is never going to work on CBS and has the potential to hit disastrous lows in the ratings.



American Crime isn't a terrible concept, but it takes itself way too seriously in marketing. TGIT is supposed to have a few guilty pleasure elements to it and guilty pleasure is the last term that I would use to describe this show. If ABC was Showtime, then I'd say that they would have room on schedule to be patient with a way too serious in approach social/racial commentary dialogue show masquerading as a serial show. But this is ABC, and they don't have that patience as they would require a ratings level much higher than what American Crime is likely to achieve.



I've already discussed my problems with CSI: Cyber.


Does it sound pessimistic? Perhaps. But the networks didn't offer anything that had a real shot at breaking out. These shows aren't going to cut it and I think that is reflected well in the ratings predictions for each.

Spot said...

Last Man On Earth has got just plain terrible scheduling; TWD will kill what could've been a really big-launching concept. I'd honestly give it a real shot at 8:30. At 9:30? Well, let's just say that if you're the last man on Earth you actually have to outrun the bear yourself ;)

American Crime feels like it'll be big with the subset of the Scandal audience I follow on Twitter, the black activist crowd. On one hand, between Scandal, Empire, and the emerging ratings/black representation correlation for the Oscars (culminating in #OscarsSoWhite and a multi-year 18-49 low in 2015), this is clearly a moment where black representation and black voices are moving the Nielsen needle like never before, and American Crime looks practically custom-made to deliver that audience. On the other hand, Scandal and Empire are ultimately soaps with interesting theming, and that's why those shows grew from their premieres. American Crime isn't in that game at all. And some of that activist crowd have not forgiven ABC's news division for paying Darren Wilson for an interview.

The rest of the newbies are 100% pre-cancelled with the exception of Cyber, and The Following (surely the worst Big Four renewal of last season) will join them on the fast track to the bear's jaws. I don't hold much hope for Hell's Kitchen in that slot either.

Spot said...

No other big 4 renewal from last season comes close to the millers IMO as seen by the fact that it had to be pulled so soon after its return!

Spot said...

Australia is still part of the Commonwealth of Nations, which is largely comprised of former English colonies.


So it makes sense what Chris L said.

Spot said...

I'm 99.5% sure Elizabeth II will outlives us. all.

Spot said...

Ryan Philippe and Juliet Lewis should be a draw with the ABC audience and give SECRETS AND LIES more of a chance than GRACEPOINT. It also feels well scheduled here (kinda like a 1995 "Movie of the Week") -- still not too optimistic for much above a 1.6 average.

I too like the scheduling of AMERICAN CRIME on Thursday and it's a good way to give a prestige show a strong lead-in... Limited ratings ceiling, though. 1.5

CSI: CYBER just seems moldy... like STALKER, NCIS: NEW ORLEANS and ODD COUPLE, when I see the promos I think it's an SNL skit. How does Nina T keep her job?!?!

Spot said...

First, did he said Commonwealth, or United Kingdom?
Second, why are you nitpicking about what's obviously my little joke?

Spot said...

He said United Kingdom but Commonwealth is also known as British Commonwealth so I think it lends itself that United Kingdom and Commonwealth are interchangeable terms here.

Spot said...

My intention was you to stop nitpicking, not to continue it. And to stop taking this jokes seriously.
But if you must nitpick, then get your facts straight. United Kingdom and Commonwealth are by no mean synonyms.

Spot said...

In the case Chris L said? It sure can.


He said "United Kingdom shows" but one or more of those shows weren't from the United Kingdom, but instead from Australia. However, both the UK and Australia are part of the Commonwealth so, in essence, is the same.

Spot said...

Not same at all. And not important at all.
But you can not stop. LOL

Spot said...

Seven premieres but none of them seem to be a big draw.


Secrets and Lies - 1.08, only a bit higher because ABC does better than FOX ratings-wise.


The Last Man on Earth - 0.86, I see Family Guy doing 1.3-1.6 in the spring, it doesn't even get its lead-in and it looks like a HBO niche comedy, it screams dunzo and it could probably be moved to 7 or 7:30 PM


Battle Creek - 1.12, couple of 1.2, most airings getting a 1.1 and some 1.0s in the mix.


The Following - 1.15 - repeats leading into it, tired audience, dead before arrival.


Hell's Kitchen - I don't know, picking spot's number


CSI: Cyber - this show looks like a mockery, but it carries a recognizable name, but from a dead franchise, 1.51, a better retention than Stalker, that's for sure, but not by much.


American Crime - 1.50 too, I have a feeling Scandal's audience will reject it, it's a show about race relations but not a soap opera, much less a Shonda show, would people enjoy watching crude depictions of racism on TV?

Spot said...

But they screwed Enlisted over.


Lol fridays at 9:30 (it could be worse though, like, NBC thursdays).

Spot said...

Secrets and Lies: 1.3 average
It's Gracepoint minus acclaim, but with a passable lead-in.

Last Man on Earth: .9 average
Would work great on HBO, not so much on broadcast.

Battle Creek: 1.1 average
For a show from Breaking Bad and House creators, I'm shocked over how poorly treated it is.

The Following: 1.3 average
It won't be pretty. And unlike last year when there was absolutely nothing, Fox now has Empire, Gotham, and a steadier Idol.

Hell's Kitchen- I dunno. 1.4 I guess.

CSI Cyber: 1.6 average
This would have been huge in 2005, not so much now. I never really buy starpower really making a show successful (well, post-premiere anyway. I remember watching Millers' pilot because of its cast, and almost never again), and the original mothership was so horribly treated. Why was this picked up again? But it will be around Stalker's numbers, then canceled. Not bad, but could be worse.

American Crime: 2.1 average
Now, many of the criticisms are valid. It's not very Shonda-like, it's very slow, the concept seems to be a bit more graphic and dark than others. But, the show has gotten decent promotion, the topic of racism has been more prominent, it has a lot of prestige, and has zilch competition. But if it does poor, I wouldn't be surprised.

Looking at the future, I'm actually amazed over how horrid the March premieres seem. Almost none of them look like winners, and that's including the mid-to-late ones, outside of maybe DWTS.

Spot said...

Even that had a certain logic to it, and it's not like they cancelled anything clearly stronger. Renewing a crumbling serialised limited series (The Following) over a league-average semi-procedural (Almost Human) was far worse than picking The Millers over FWBL or Crazy Ones.

Spot said...

This Brit is genuinely wondering what happens when Elizabeth II dies.


However far in the future it is, Dick Wolf shows will probably still form 50% of the renew-worthy scripted output on NBC. And that's including if Dick Wolf dies before Elizabeth II.

Spot said...

It's hard not to be a seller on March premieres given their miserable track-record.

Not sold on CSI: Cyber. The CSI brand is not exactly strong right now, and folks nowadays are tech savvy enough for the concept to seem ridiculous. The cast is intriguing (Academy Award Winner Patricia Arquette, James Van Der Beek, Fat Neil from Community) but I doubt that's enough to get people to tune in.

I think ABC has done a poor job promoting American Crime and Secrets & Lies. I don't know the difference between them.

Battle Creek is scheduled so poorly that it's hard to feel optimistic but there's some potential for it to exceed some very low expectations. It's not that off-brand for CBS, plus it could potentially bring in some much-needed younger viewers to the network. I also wouldn't be surprised if it gets a second season somewhere else, given it's from Sony and the connection with Gilligan.

The Last Man on Earth might be weird enough to stand out? Doubt it, sadly. I see it as a cult hit that's dead after a low-rated initial run.

Spot said...

They did at least flip it to 9. And Bones gave it a 1.8 lead in. Which is better than all but 2 FOX comedy results in 2014 (Tuesday shows)

Spot said...

Secrets And Lies = that specific kind of unappealing idiocy that ABC has so long specialized in, and therefore just as dead as any such programming.

The Last Man On Earth = not an appealing enough premise, insufficient interest from the people who watched Lord and Miller movies (the most successful of which have been adaptations of some sort or another, and not original premises), and therefore likely dead.

Battle Creek = poor scheduling, worse marketing (basically, the scenes from the show are made to put a lie to the "not an ordinary cop show" taglining, even if the show itself supports such trumpeting), likely dead.

The Following = just so much steaming garbage. I believe more people will flee from its spectacular awfulness this year, especially since the entire original "point" of the series, such as it was, has been neutralized by Carroll's arrest. I may even stop my annual Twitter tradition of live-snarking it mercilessly, as I have ample reason to believe that will be less fun than the previous two seasons, not to mention less productive to my own following. Should my theorizing be right, I believe it will drop dramatically and officially die.

Hell's Kitchen = a mild-to-moderate amount of deterioration, possibly a bit better than Spot's "likeliest" scenario.

CSeye: Ceyeber = One of the dumber CBS procedural ideas in recent years, tied to a sinking franchise and poisoned timeslot. It's dead.

American Crime = see Secrets and Lies, w/ a hint of watered-down True Detective (which itself was already pretty thin and laden w/ pseudoprestige.) thrown in for bad measure. It's going nowhere.

Spot said...

I'm not sure Revenge will be swapped, they left Resurrection there after it tanked and pretty much let it play out even while also burning off Galavant in Jan. and using Revenge as pairing fodder for those shows.

As for Secrets and Lies, you're spot on with that analysis.

Spot said...

Except Revenge isn't a mystery show, it's a soap drama about a revenge. While S&L is a straight up murder mystery and it's a remake. Also AC got plenty of Oscar/TGIT promos as well, they both did. Tbh, neither of them fit and ABC is just waiting to see which one they might pick up.

Spot said...

Empire was well promoted btw. As for FOX, they're doing a lot better, but they're going to need to produce more hits before they try anything drastic.

Spot said...

The predictions are safer, depressive? Yes, but better than trying to expect the next Empire out of every new show like some other people have done.

Spot said...

The irony of the 'not an ordinary cop show' is that it becomes ordinary because it's been done time and time again with the mismatched partners and everything.

Spot said...

By that time, it was already way too late for it to have any effect and it was just burning off the remaining episodes.

Spot said...

It was a sunny day. When application asked him to enter year of development cycle, Les Moonves by mistake typed 2004 instead of 2014. He immediately noticed familiar name of Vince Gilligan, and yelled to his assistant: "Helen, who's this guy?"
Helen: How the fuck could I know?
Moonves: Because you know everyone and everything.
H: Yeah, but you didn't tell me his name, did you?
M: Uh, no, I didn't. Vince Gilligan's the name.
H: Oh, he's the guy behind Breaking Bad. He won shitload of Emmys, that's probably where you know him from.
M: Now that you said it...
M: Anyway, how one moves project from a development cycle 2004-05 to a cycle 2014-15?
H: Let me show you. Scooch.
H: Battle Creek, huh? Back then they said it's OK, but is not on brand.
M: Oh, we will brand-ize it. We will, don't you worry.

Spot said...

That explains a lot, it does feels outdated.

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