Thursday, February 26, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/25/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Empire (5.4) added a tenth to go 0.2 above last week's final, while Survivor (2.4) was up to even year-to-year. Arrow (1.1) and American Idol (2.7) were also up; Black-ish (2.2), Nashville (1.3) and The 100 (0.5) were down.
  • Yep, it grew again. Empire posted a 5.3 preliminary rating this week, up two tenths from last week's prelim and a tenth from last week's final. It's now within two tenths of the top broadcast entertainment rating of the season, The Big Bang Theory's premiere. Its lead-in American Idol (2.6) was down to a Wednesday season low, but that's still very close to even year-to-year. The bad news for Idol is it gets just two more airings alongside Empire.
  • CBS premiered both of its spring reality shows with 90-minute episodes; Survivor (2.3) was down noticeably from the last premiere in the fall but very close to the year-ago 2.4 spring 2014 premiere. And the temporary return to a weeknight with a seemingly compatible lead-in wasn't of that much help to The Amazing Race (1.5). This was well above the Friday fall premiere (1.1) but only tied the spring 2014 premiere against the Olympics.
  • ABC had another very strong comedy night; though The Middle (2.0) slumped a bit in the lead-off role, there were noticeable bounces for stunts on The Goldbergs (2.5) and Modern Family (3.4), and Black-ish (2.3) also inched up a bit more.
  • And NBC also had something interesting to report as The Mysteries of Laura (1.4) had a significant bounce in the lead-off role. I always thought The Mentalist was hurting it, but one would think this much growth probably has at least something to do with Debra Messing's Will and Grace co-star Eric McCormack appearing. We'll see what's left when it next airs, which apparently won't be for several weeks.
  • On the CW, Arrow (1.0) headed to hiatus on a slightly down note, and you guessed it, another preliminary 0.6 for The 100...

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.0 34% -9%-0.2n/a 10/15 +18% -9% +18% 2.0
The Goldbergs 2.5 42% +14%+0.3-0.2 1/14 n/a +14% +79% 2.5
Modern Family 3.4 46% +10%+0.3+0.3 6/16 +10% +13% +10% 3.2
Black-ish 2.2 42% +0%+0.0+0.3 10/15 n/a +0% +29% 1.8
Nashville 1.3 34% +0%+0.0+0.0 10/14 +0% +4% +4% 1.4
ABC:+5%+22%
Survivor 2.4 30% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% +89% -1% 2.4
The Amazing Race 1.5 31% n/an/an/a 1/1 +0% +25% -32% 1.4
CBS:+58%-16%
The Mysteries of Laura 1.4 23% +27%+0.3n/a 4/16 n/a +27% +12% 1.5
Law and Order: SVU 1.6 26% +0%+0.0+0.3 8/16 -20% +3% -20% 1.7
Chicago PD 1.5 26% -12%-0.2+0.0 8/16 -32% -12% -32% 1.6
NBC:+3%-17%
American Idol Wed 2.7 33% -4%-0.1n/a 8/8 +0% -2% -2% 2.7
Empire 5.4 49% +4%+0.2-0.1 1/8 n/a +5% +104% 4.8
Fox:+3%+50%
Arrow 1.1 45% -8%-0.1n/a 4/15 +22% -4% +29% 1.2
The 100 0.5 41% +0%+0.0-0.1 4/14 n/a +0% +0% 0.5
CW:-3%+19%
Big5:+8%+13%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

56 comments:

Spot said...

I agree

Spot said...

I think Arrow still did very well considering it was pretty much the only thing on the CW the entire week. I will try to do some further analysis on this topic but it is looking more and more to me that a show's rating is very much influenced by the ratings the network has the days before. There have been multiple instances in which that has appeared to be the case.

Spot said...

I think Empire definitely helps Wednesday Idol. Perhaps something like 3-4 tenths. Because Empireless Thursday ratings are somewhat following last season's ratings trajectory, and Wednesday's are not.
Wednesday edition premiered at 3.2 and now it's at 2.6, not much of a drop,
Last year drop was huge at this point, from 4.7 to 2.7 in comparable edition.
While Thursday drops are comparable. 3.1 -> 2.1 this year, and 3.9 --> 2.4 last season.

Spot said...

I agree. And remember that Idol was airing for two hours last year on Wednesday and it is a show that tends to grow considerably across the telecast so the y2y comparisons on Wednesday should look even worse than they do. Empire's hand. But I guess we'll have a definitive answer when Empire leaves Wednesdays.

Spot said...

ABC is preliminary up 23% vs the comparable Wednesday last year. Yes there were stunt episodes involved but it's still a hell of an accomplishment!

Spot said...

Yes, Empire end won't work in Idol's favor. But there will be two things that will go in Idol's favor from then on:
1. Idol will air both hours on Wednesday, so it will be able to grow in 2nd hour.
2. Those will be the lowest rated weeks, but unlike in previous season,those won't weigh into average with 3 hours, as this season Idol is planned as only 2 hours in those weeks. Smart, and it will help y2y comparisons.

By my method I have Idol down "only" 19% y2y now ("only" because of those

disastrous last few seasons), and now I expect OK season with "just" 15 down y2y. That is, unless they got greedy and replace Backstrom with 3rd hour of Idol.

Spot said...

Good point about there not being a third hour to bring down the y2y comparisons. I actually think FOX has more to gain from protecting Idol than it has from using it to cover the Backstorm hole. Sure it would get better ratings but it's a short term gain and the franchise is at a point in which it needs to be protected to increase longevity. I don't know the mage goods situation of Backstorm though so I can't really speak with all the facts or predict what FOX will do.

Spot said...

Exactly. Idol on Thursday (with Backstrom on Friday on Saturday) would be short term gain for Fox, but long term loss for Both Idol and Fox.

Spot said...

It's about being the best of the worst in pity renewal, they'll just have to wait and see for the rest.

Spot said...

Exactly, 1 uptick alone isn't enough, it has to sustain its rise. As for the show itself, NBC has to decide whether or not it's desperate enough for a pity renewal to save face for their scripted shows this season as they're the only major network without an actual new hit this season.

Spot said...

It should be able to top Glee, the bar is really low to begin with.

Spot said...

I don't think random repeat can do well on Friday. But if they would commit to repeating all 13 episodes in order, and advertise it well, then it could do good.

Having said that, I would like they do those repeats in summer:
Tue: So You Think You Can Dance / something
Wed: Empire repeats / So You Think You Can Dance

It probably would help SYTYD. But I have no idea if SYTYD format can be tweaked for airing entire seasons as 2 x 1 hours

Spot said...

Hm I disagree. I think SYTYCD is a show, that like DWTS and Idol, should benefit from airing only once a week. If you force people to commit to two nights, the show would probably go down even more. I don't think repeats from Empire would counter balance that. But Empire repeats should for sure be on the schedule though I don't know paired with what. I don't know what FOX has for this summer to be honest. Masterchef for one hour, Empire repeats, SYTYCD for two hours, Wayward Pines, maybe Hotel Hell again though that has short duration. Then cartoon repeats on Sunday. But still leaves 2 hours even excluding Fridays. Maybe some other cheap reality and Gotham repeats then, leaving Bones to repeat on Fridays.

Spot said...

OK, I agree. I don't know SYTYD format, so I must agree by default.

Spot said...

The Blazers are having a great year (37-19 as it stands, several games clear in their division) so that might be a factor.

Spot said...

Empire scared the shit out of competition.

NBC procedurals are going to hiatus for next 3 weeks.

ABC comedies are in originals next week, but then there's 2 weeks of repeats. With 24 episodes orders for those comedies ABC actually has room for only 2 more Wednesdays in repeats. Anyway, Black-ish will end up airing only 6 episodes directly vs Empire, 5 of which already aired.

Next two weeks CBS goes with regular lineup Survivor / Criminal Minds / CSI: Cyber. But against Empire season finale they are preempting Criminal Minds, CBS scheduled 2 hours of Survivor for March 18th,

All The CW shows except for The 100 and Hart of Dixie are now on 2 or 3 weeks hiatus. But the reason for that is not Empire, and almost surely is: Monday lineup to avoid The Voice Blind Auditions. And Tuesday lineup too, but that one shouldn't have much overlap with The Voice.

Spot said...

It's Will and Grace reunion since it returned to early fall levels.

Next week or should score a 1.2 at best.

Spot said...

While the other networks are certainly not fans of having their shows face Empire, it's not unusual to see networks immediately go into a few weeks of reruns right after Sweeps end. So NBC's move isn't out of the ordinary, nor is ABC's since they want one more week of originals before DST starts. CBS' move, though, is a clear-cut, spare-the-scripted-show move.

Spot said...

Well for The 100 and HoD it's because of the limited number of episodes which is why it can air the rest of the episodes. The other shows have to take a break so they can schedule it through to May sweeps.

Better to wait it out through the Empire storm and save the originals for later, they're going to have to go on a break sooner or later.

Spot said...

It did fine, it's like when Flash hit 1.3s and people started panicking and overreacting over nothing.

Spot said...

It's on hiatus for 3 weeks. It returns on post-DST 25 March, so I'd say 1.2 is the best case scenario.

Paradoxical, despite awful ratings Laura is still in contention for renewal:
NBC likely will have 9 drama hours in fall schedule. They have 5 already renewed veterans, and there will be 3+ newbies. A. D. will be renewed, but again for midseason. So competition for 9th hour is between:
Laura vs Odyssey vs 4th new drama.

Of course, that would be face renewal, same as About a Boy year ago, and we all know what it would mean: 0.01% chances for 3rd season, and 99.99% chances for embarassing low ratings in Season 2. But, hey, beggars can't be choosers. And NBC is well bellow beggars level now.

Spot said...

Full disclosure: I have never watched it either, I am just assuming it is a regular competition/performance show like the others.

Spot said...

I thought About a Boy did enough last year to warrant the renewal, even accounting for the post voice inflation. Spot had it at a TRUE of 1.6, which isn't spectacular but is passable for an NBC comedy. Laura is at 1.43 which is the exact equivalent of About a Boy applying the usual league average decline of 10% but 1) Despite everything, NBC still rates much better in dramas than in comedies so a 1.43 is worse in relative terms for a drama and 2) This number includes a lot of very early episodes that are no longer representative of what the show has been doing (Excluding last night) whereas Boy's number was more contained as it was just 13 episodes. So I think if they were to renew Laura, which I have to agree with you is still in contention for renewal, it would be a much worse renewal than renewing Boy last year.

I am starting to believe they will actually do it and renew her but I absolutely don't think they should as they are almost certain to only loose money with it next year, even more than this year. If they renew her, be prepared to see Laura rerunning a lot even if Saturdays since they have to make sure the individual profitability of the show is on the positive, even if they force it to get there. These "save facing" things are very serious actions as they will cost money to the shareholders just to save face to the CEOs and entertainment presidents. Makes no sense and it is a corporate governance issue that should be addressed by someone, it is quite serious.

Spot said...

How come is ABC claiming that season to date Modern Family is up 2% in A18-49? According to my records it is -8%. Do I have a mistake or is ABC straight up fabricating data now? It's strange because they don't actually need to do it for last night - growing over 20% in raw numbers y2y is already amazing.

Spot said...

Probably they're using that "most recent data" crap which includes Live+7 for all but last week or two.

Spot said...

Modern was up from its year-ago telecast (8.5 million and 3.1/9) by 9% in Total Viewers and by 10% in Adults 18-49 and season to date is growing on both measures (+3%/+2%).

This is what they released. But maybe you're right and it's connected with L7 somehow. So misleading!

Spot said...

About a Boy had only 13 weeks to drop. I doubt it would keep that 1.57 True if it was 22 episodes season.

Spot said...

Point taken.

Spot said...

Yeah, sure. Both ABC and NBC randomly picked to air remaining repeats exactly in weeks when Empire airs, and to air originals for 8 weeks in a row after Empire ends.

Spot said...

CW press releases says The 100 hit season highs in M18-34 and M18-49, both 0.7.
Maybe CW was also preempted for basketball somewhere? If not, then congrats to The 100.

Spot said...

Yeah sadly I have to agree. Still miss it a lot though.

Spot said...

I would really like those to hold in finals. Do you think the cw also sells in M18-34 or M18-49 instead of A18-49 for The 100, at least for part of the space? That would increase its value.

Spot said...

I don't know. But that's certainly possible. Fox animated comedies surely manage to monetize M18.34 ratings, as there's no other explanation for so high ad rates. And some cable networks too, like History or FX/FXX. This article has more on it. Though it also says it's not so easy to sell M18-34 eyeballs in scripted show, because advertisers targeting that demo are used to buy ad space in sports programs.

Spot said...

Thanks for the link!

Spot said...

Considering the phenomenal size of Empire's audience in both key demo and viewers, the other networks' Wednesday shows have been relatively unscathed, especially ABC. It appears as if Empire has created a reason for many new viewers to watch network television on Wednesday night which represents a small ray of hope to the networks amid all the usual gloom and doom talk about declining live network television viewing. Replicating Empire's success, now that's another story. I assumed Empire was going to flop epically on FOX but wow, I couldn't have been more wrong. I thought it would have been much better suited to a premium cable network where grittier and edgier tones, themes and language could have been exploited.

Spot said...

Since a Question for this isn't coming, I figure I'll pose it here.

At the start of the season, ABC's TGIT was the story. Grey's Anatomy successfully fixed one of the network's biggest problem hours, Scandal seamlessly inherited the marquee 9:00 hour, and How to Get Away with Murder zoomed past both pre-sold Gotham and endlessly-promoted Scorpion to be the biggest freshman broadcast show. Empire has thrown a wrench into that narrative, but Murder's success still can't be denied. Now, though, ABC has to bid adieu to the limited-run series and hope for a big finish so next season can defy the poor trend of shorter-run broadcast dramas. Will ABC's Murder Get Away with a Stellar Send-Off? That's the Unofficial Question for Thursday, February 26, 2015

How to Get Away with Murder
Fall Average (9/25 - 11/20): 3.04
Recent results: 3.1 - 2.7 - 2.7 - 2.9

Grey's Anatomy
Recent results: 2.8 - 2.3 - 2.3 - 2.5


The biggest negative that HTGAWM has is a weaker lead-in from Grey's Anatomy as opposed to Scandal. But the show gets a higher HUT-hour to air in. And ABC caught a huge break that The Blacklist didn't capitalize on its post-Super Bowl airing and is now stuck in the mid-to-upper 1's, so while tonight's competition (TBL | Allegiance, Backstrom, TBBT (r) & Mom | Elementary) is bigger than the Fall's Elementary & Parenthood that's more due to volume than the shows' strength. HTGAWM can't get near its series debut (3.8) tonight, but if Scandal's past seasons could get finale bumps I don't see why this show can't either and get it past episode 2's 3.2 rating. ABC's promo department is determined to make that happen, so I'll humor them by going slightly higher than I originally planned.



How To Get Away With Murder Unofficial Over/Under: 3.35.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

This is why I like the TRUE numbers over the raw numbers. It makes the comparison less apples to oranges.

Spot said...

How many weeks in a row of preliminary 0.6/final 0.5 is that for The 100?

Spot said...

I agree. I am personally delighted with this idea though, the show just jumped to the very top of my priorities pilot wise. Obviously it will get the post Flash slot don't you think? The interesting thing is that the CW now has 3 pilots which I could legitimately see taking a fall slot (Marc Cherry, Julie Plec and this one) yet only two possible slots unless they do something crazy like moving a second tier show (The Originals, Jane the Virgin, Supernatural) to Fridays which I cannot see happening.

Spot said...

Is it the first time ever NBC listens to you? :p Feels like it!

Spot said...

Arrow/Flash spinoff is probably for midseason. That is because they plan to move multiple characters there. Not only Atom/Ray Palmer (Brandon Routh) from Arrow, but also half of Firestorm (Victor Garber) and Captain Cold from Flash. And apparently Sara (Canary) from Arrow will be raised from the dead for needs of spinoff. They need time to converge all those stories, and it's too late to change this season's storylines. So I think their plan is to use some of next fall episodes for it,

Thus I still believe Cordon (Julie Plec) gets post Flash fall.
By default, because of competition:
Cheerleader Death Squad: sounds dramedy-ish, so likely Monday.
Tales From the Darkside: sounds filler-ish, so not Mon-Thu in fall.
A Not So Gifted Man: simply sounds lame.

Spot said...

Hm.. I am not sure they wouldn't want to launch the DC thing in the fall but I understand your argument about needing to prepare all the involved storylines. I still have a hard time seeing a Julie Plec show on the post Flash slot considering how her shows tend to be very shipping heavy and very female skewing in general. But she was involved in TTP as well and that aired post Arrow so I guess there is some sort of precedence. It's too bad there isn't a free night available since I think it would pair rather nicely with Supernatural. Cheerleader Death Squad has pairing with Jane the Virgin written all over it IMO, so yes, Mondays it is.

Spot said...

By the way, Son of the Bronx is reporting that Arrow hit a freaking 1.4 in M18-34 last night while doing a 0.7 in W18-34. That's a crazy 63% male skew, ridiculously high!

Spot said...

I don't see why they should repeat Elementary. It already did terrible last year repeating on Thursday, it would likely do even worse on Sundays. And I think they are past the point of trying to make the show happen, I think it's just about riding the thing to syndication now. I would rather rerun Madam Secretary even it it would do terrible but at least you could argue that it is a new show with still some upside and that awareness should be kept as much as possible.

Spot said...

I think it makes total sense to leave Mondays sans originals this year due to the competition and also because everything on the night reruns pretty decently and Scorpion obviously needs the exposure. But my point was that they should have picked Wednesdays instead of Tuesdays. NCIS(R)-NCIS NO(R)-Criminal Minds(R) and Big Brother-Zoo-Extant sounds a better arrangement for NCIS NO, Zoo and Extant, neutral for Big Brother and NCIS and only slightly negative for Criminal Minds which doesn't matter much here anyway. In any case, someone has told me that Zoo stars a former NCIS star? Don't know if it is true, but if it is could explain why they are looking for synergies there.

Spot said...

I don't think bragging about the taste improving over repeats is that bad to be honest. The purpose of a filler thingy like the taste is exactly to still do better than repeats at an only marginally higher cost. I probably wouldn't brag about it since the numbers are too low, but it is not shocking to me that they do, since that was exactly the point of the show. Now, that MJF thing is something else, for sure lol!

I think FOX has by far the best press releases. They straight out say when the show is down and all that instead of just mentioning the numbers that are convenient to them.

Spot said...

I think they still could have aired reruns of Criminal Minds but in some other slot.

NCIS(R)-NCIS NO(R)-Criminal Minds(R) and Big
Brother-Zoo-Extant sounds a better arrangement for NCIS NO, Zoo and
Extant, neutral for Big Brother and NCIS and only slightly negative for
Criminal Minds which doesn't matter much here anyway. In any case,
someone has told me that Zoo stars a former NCIS star? Don't know if it
is true, but if it is could explain why they are looking for synergies
there.

Spot said...

If CBS' tracking thinks that Zoo isn't going to benefit from being a BB lead-out, then why bother? It didn't help Extant or Reckless. That's why they are instead spreading the new shows throughout the week.

Spot said...

I don't believe that a lead-in that is higher than double the size of an NCIS (R) lead-in wouldn't help at all, even if they aren't compatible. I mean, at some point volume trumps compatibility, right? And my point was broader than that: it was that Extant would also benefit from a Zoo original lead-in instead of a Minds repeat and that New Orleans would benefit from staying put in its usual slot and repeating out of the mothership (even if this one is a minor one). So I have three good reasons to prefer the two dramas on Wednesday whereas having Zoo on Tuesday just to "spread it out" seems kind of meh to me.

Spot said...

Because they own Elementary.
And, isn't Madam Secretary serialized?

Spot said...

Well, again, look at Extant. No matter the size of its lead-in (the low 2s of Big Brother of the low 1's of Criminal Minds repeats) it pretty much stayed steady at 1.0. There volume clearly did not trump compatibility.


In the case of NCIS: New Orleans, it could actually help moving to 10:00 if Zoo draws a fresh audience. It'll draw fresh eyeballs to the spin-off and can increase sampling.

Spot said...

I guess you have two valid points in there.

Spot said...

Whatever it is, it is being preempted by something that is crazy male skewing. The 100 had a preliminary of 0.7 M18-34 yesterday but it got reduced to a 0.4 M18-34 in finals. That's a hell of an adjustment!

Spot said...

That's very strange. Definitely looks like one of those two numbers is a typo, 0,4 or 0.7.

But, as always, I have a theory. It could be that in some big market (or multiple smaller markets) Arrow aired at 9 PM, and The 100 at 10 or 11 PM, because at 8 PM they aired local breaking news or whatever. I don't think it was sports, simply because they usually mention those sport preemptions in preliminary ratings. You said Arrow had really god M18-34 ratings (1.4 or so), so when that is moved (for some markets) from 9 PM in preliminaries to Arrow in finals, that can cause big drop. Just speculating.

Spot said...

is it normal for a summer schedule to be announced already?

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