Thursday, February 19, 2015

The Question, Thursday 2/19/15: Will The Odd Couple Be a Ratings Oddity?


Tonight, CBS unveils its latest attempt to pair a new comedy with The Big Bang Theory as Matthew Perry's The Odd Couple comes to town. Though Perry's many post-Friends attempts to break back into TV have all fizzled out, they've also tended to start off well. The Odd Couple marks the revival of a classic TV brand, but you've got to be at the very upper crust of the 18-49 demo to remember seeing the early-'70s version of The Odd Couple in originals. Perhaps the biggest factor here will be the hammock effect; the show has not just a TBBT lead-in but also a lead-out from what should be a solid-rated series finale of Two and a Half Men. Will The Odd Couple be a ratings oddity? That's The Question for Tuesday, February 19, 2015.

Post-The Big Bang Theory Comedy Launches
4.0 ($#*! My Dad Says, 9/23/10) (4.9 Big Bang)
2.7 (How to Be a Gentleman, 9/29/11) (4.9 Big Bang)
4.1 (Rob, 1/12/12) (5.3 Big Bang)
3.9 (The Crazy Ones, 9/26/13) (6.1 Big Bang)
3.3 (The Millers, 10/3/13) (5.2 Big Bang)
2.5 (Mom season 2, 10/30/14) (4.1 Big Bang)

Over/Under: 3.35.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. All results based on final ratings rounded to the nearest tenth.

63 comments:

Spot said...

Men series finale might bring some viewers to CBS, especially considering that TGIT is headed to week 4 and NBC is a total failure. It bodes well for TOC the fact that lots of fall comedies bombed, creating a comedy-starving environment, hence FOTB's overachivement. However, I believe TBBT's performance is more important than any of it.


Considering a 4.4-4.8 TBBT, Odd Couple needs between 70 and 75% retention to cross that line. Even if TBBT hits a 5.0, it's a 68% retention.



So, under.

Spot said...

So, this is where I stand:
- I expect a 4.7 Big Bang tonight since it will have an easier time tonight competition wise than the last times we saw it and because the premiere of odd couple and the finale of men should bring in additional interest to the night
- Normally, I would expect something around a 68% retention (average of all those premieres post Big Bang, excluding Mom since it wasn't series premiere). That would place it a 3.2
- Could Men halo effect/ pre-tune be enough to bring up the odd couple?I am not sure what to expect of Men, I was thinking around a 3.0 before judging by the boost other comedies got in series finale (30 Rock, The Office) but everyone else is apparently much more confident than I am about it. I will be positive and assume this can give it an extra tenth or so.


There is still one more tenth to cover though but I will choose to believe that between Matthew Perry's comedies always starting out decently, fans of the original and Silvio's theory about a hungry comedy audience on broadcasters can be enough to find that extra tenth.


A very dubious (and conditional on way too many factors for my own good) over.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

I dunno. I'm just saying Lucifer isn't a slam dunk

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

I think Gotham is a different story since it's a stronger, more well-known brand than Lucifer. And really, I'd be concerned that Gotham didn't get any heat between the end of MNF and now.

I do think Fox is getting wise to what kind of show could/should be a limited-series (Scream Queens being the best example). But with a show like American Idol to schedule, shorter-run pieces like that are needed.

Ultimately, Lucifer could be a midseason or Summer 2016 show if picked up.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under, tenuously. I expect a finale boost for Men, but nothing huge, and TBBT won't be hitting 5.+, which means (as others have pointed out) greater than 68% retention to reach 3.4. Just don't see it.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over for the premiere but I'm afraid Matthew Perry won't be adding The Odd Couple to his resume under "accomplishments"

Spot said...

That's already a pretty low bar to begin with.

Spot said...

Under, but barely. Crushed between TBBT and TAHM, I doubt it will do any number under a 3.0, but I don't think the show will draw enough attention to go over a 3.3

Spot said...

Uh... Over, because I think I've been going under too much so far this year.

Spot said...

under

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Can the fourth time be the post-Friends charm for Matthew Perry? Going outside the realm into drama (Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip) and single-cam comedy (Mr. Sunshine (yay.), Go On) haven't worked. If this doesn't, with its broad multi-cam humor and as part of a recognizable name, perhaps he should just stick to guest appearances on other shows while counting his Friends residual money...

CBS is due for a win after a weak Stevie Wonder special, a sagging pair of results from the NCIS shows, and low-end results from The Mentalist and Stalker. Tonight is pretty much the only time it can happen. I've been tuned out from promotional events due to a week-long vacation earlier this month and not having a DVR anymore, but I would imagine CBS has been pushing this hard. And as Spot points out the upper crust of the 18-49 demo would remember this show's original incarnation, which is the end of the demo that CBS more-or-less targets anyway.

Over.

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

5.2 final.

Spot said...

I took out the 13th episode since there are only 12 hours, but I tacked on the Housewives' season 1 finale/23rd episode (a 13.4 A18-49/330 Plus) just to give the show something else to shoot for.

This episode was a new record 16% above the corresponding DH episode. The previous record was a 14% edge for week five. Expect this record to get shattered in weeks 9 & 10 since Housewives slumped.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-RNntwmgE7jM/VOZXiYEBLBI/AAAAAAAABLk/bgVa5i-2YPI/s1600/empirevsdh.png

Spot said...

Unsurprisingly, The 100 was adjusted down.
MF, Arrow and Idol were all adjusted up a tenth.

Spot said...

No surprise there.

Spot said...

And season to date Empire average is now 264 A18-49+ .
For the first time it's above 262 Desperate Housewives Season 1 scored (262).

Spot said...

I had Odd Couple at 3.0, but some things have changed my mind. While 2.5 Men's final season promotion was pretty crummy (every ad for it was just "hey, there's a final season, go watch it I guess"), it's still the finale to one of the longest-running shows of all time, and there's rumors all over the place that Charlie Sheen returns in this episode, so even the most jaded critics who hates the Kutcher-era Men will probably give it a view, so the finale's probaby 3.7. Big Bang meanwhile has the slot all to itself. Slap will go sub-1, Grey's is in week 4, and American Idol's in the performance section (though its great hold last night might mean something). So with Big Bang at 4.9, Odd Couple's surrounded by two hot rating powers. So, with that in mind...


Over.

Spot said...

over. Really smart premiere timing by CBS means it will get around 3.6/3.7ish

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

NCU at Duke basketball at ESPN nice 1.66 A18-49, 1.72 A18-34.
Game went into overtime, was really exciting.

Spot said...

Over. Tonight could finally be a return to the 2011-13 CBS comedies at least for one night.

Spot said...

Yeah, but there are discussions to have more episodes for the next seasons...at least, that's the implication after the supposed plans for more procedural stories.

Spot said...

Under.

I see TBBT around a 4.5, so it would need around 75% retention to go over, which is something I can't really see it doing even with TAAHM's grand finale at 9.

Spot said...

Two and a Half Men Final - Unofficial Spread
Over/Under: 2.95

Spot said...

Don't forget Empire.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

It couldn't possibly be huge out of the gate, we said.
It couldn't possibly grow from that megahit-level launch, we said.
It couldn't possibly match Episode 8 in Plus, we said.

Spot said...

OVER

4.2

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Someone has been learning with Spot. I wanted to say 2.9-3.0 ahah. I say over.

Spot said...

Odd Couple is easily the worst new show of this TV midseason. http://www.tvmediainsights.com/?p=245016

Under

Spot said...

Arrow was up some crazy 41% last night compared to year ago episode and as a whole the season is up 6% on a network where other than Supernatural, raw numbers growth is pretty much unprecedented.

Furthermore, it needs to average a 0.96 in remaining episodes for it to beat the inaugural season of TVD in PLUS, which seems doable. If it happens, the CW would have its two highest rated scripted series ever in the same year. Awesome!

Spot said...

Another vague piece of SVOD data:
https://twitter.com/Variety_Cynthia/status/568570636412575745

Spot said...

You're cryptic. You mean it might mean syndication deal expired, and no one ones to buy it into new syndication cycle, so CBS is taking what they can get? Hulu being better than nothing.

Spot said...

Just talking about the "mid-six-figures" thing. Very rare to get any SVOD numbers.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Ah!
Yes, only if someone from studio leaks number per episode to Nellie from Deadline or other journalist. Netflix (and I suppose Hulu too) never ever says any numbers.

Spot said...

I'll say Over at 3.5.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

It is vague.

Spot said...

What's not vague, is state of your mental health. Go seek help.

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

Well you would know about mental problems, given you delusions of grandeur, you possibly have NPD - Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

Spot said...

How very 'cryptic' of you.

Spot said...

The 3rd one should've been a given considering the trajectory of the series' growth.

Spot said...

Go seek help. You're sick, man, you can't control your compulsions.

Spot said...

Hmmm... The lack of a penultimate bump doesn't really mean anything since the sitcom isn't serialized. But unlike How I Met Your Mother, 2.5 Men is a show that has clearly fallen out of its prime. Asking the show to grab a rating that it hasn't hit since being The Big Bang Theory's lead-out is a lot. Its saving grace is that The Odd Couple should be a stronger lead-in than Mom has been this season. At the very least, between the finale bump and the projected LeAv by season's end 2.5 Men should avoid being graded out as anything less than Hit.

Under.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Silvio had already pointed that out.

Spot said...

Two and a Half Men only needs a 1.88 average for the double finale to grade as a hit. I say that is a sure thing.

Spot said...

Classic case of projection, it does explain your attitude/behavior though.

Spot said...

Oops I missed this one. For the record I woulda gone with Under.

Post a Comment

Newer Post Older Post Home
© SpottedRatings.com 2009-2016. All Rights Reserved.