Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Super Bowl Sunday 2/1/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The Blacklist (8.4) adjusted down another three tenths. The Super Bowl was virtually unchanged in final viewership and had a 39.1 final rating among 18-49, slightly down from last year's 39.3 and marking a third straight 18-49 decline for the Bowl.
    • Would the Bowl have set a viewership record in a blowout? (Or, conversely, would it have set a viewership record if last year's game had been close?) My slightly informed guess is no. The game had a whooping 13 million more viewers in the 9:30 half-hour compared to last year's blowout (119.2 vs. 106.2) and another 5.4 million more at 9:00 (116.9 vs. 111.4). And the earliest numbers I could see suggest a pace behind 2014; the 2014 game had over three million more viewers in the 7:00 half-hour (113.1 vs. 109.7).
  • TIME ZONE-ADJUSTED UPDATE: The Super Bowl set a new American viewership record with 114.4 million viewers in time zone-adjusted fast nationals. That beats last year's final by 2.2 million, and the margin may be wider after finals.
    • The Blacklist had 26.5 million viewers and an 8.7 A18-49 rating, a disappointingly old-skewing outing that will (barring a significant finals uptick) beat out only 2003's Alias (8.2) and 2013's Elementary (7.8) among recent lead-outs. And both those shows started after 11:00.
    • Both the game and The Blacklist may adjust up a bit more in finals; last year's Super Bowl viewership went up from 111.5 million to 112.2 million while the lead-out shows adjusted up from 11.1 / 6.7 to 11.4 / 6.9. Finals and half-hour breakdown info to come.
  • More Super Bowl updates to come after time zone-adjusted numbers become available. The most reliable numbers available at the moment are the household overnights, which would seem to suggest there may not be much drama in the Bowl's pursuit of a new viewership record. The 49.7 average HH rating was up 4% vs. the huge blowout that still set a viewership record last year. The very preliminary 35.0 adults 18-49 rating edged last year's very preliminary 34.4 (which later adjusted up to 39.3).
  • NBC's special The Blacklist started at a late-ish 10:38, following what seemed like a noticeably longer post-game show than usual. (I've clocked most recent ones somewhere around 25 minutes, and this one actually seemed a bit over 30.)
    • NBC PR says the household numbers (13.5) were 9% above last year's New Girl, which could mean we're headed for a pretty impressive delivery since the year-ago New Girl had just 30 minutes to bleed viewers. (In other words, The Blacklist's lead over the full New Girl/Brooklyn Nine-Nine hour was surely much more substantial.)
    • The very preliminary 18-49 numbers in the 10:30 half-hour were 11.2 for The Blacklist vs. last year's 7.8 for New Girl (later adjusted up to 11.4). Since the 10:30 half-hour includes eight minutes of post-game, I wouldn't expect this finals adjustment to be quite as drastic, but we'll see. More to come!

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
America's Funniest Home Videos (R) 0.4 21% -76% -11% 1.1
America's Funniest Home Videos (R) 0.5 26% -55% -17% 1.3
Shark Tank (R) 0.5 32% -50% -9% 1.3
Shark Tank (R) 1.0 40% +11% -13% 1.6
ABC:-49%-13%
60 Minutes (R) 0.3 14% -73% -25% 1.0
NCIS (R) 0.3 14% -80% +0% 1.1
CSI (R) 0.4 17% -68% +0% 1.2
Criminal Minds (R) 0.7 21% -46% n/a 1.3
CBS:-67%+16%
Super Bowl 39.1 43% n/an/an/a 1/1 -1% +2319% +10100% 20.2
Super Bowl Postgame 26.3 46% n/an/an/a 1/1 +3% +1095% +3657% 11.9
The Blacklist post-SB 8.4 41% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a +236% +740% 2.6
NBC:+1770%+4613%
Bob's Burgers (R) 0.3 40% -25% -99% 1.1
The Simpsons (R) 0.5 48% -29% -99% 1.2
The Simpsons (R) 0.6 45% -57% -99% 1.4
Brooklyn Nine-Nine (R) 0.3 38% -75% -99% 1.1
Family Guy (R) 0.5 52% -69% -99% 1.4
Bob's Burgers (R) 0.5 52% -58% -99% 1.4
Fox:-58%-99%
Big4:+559%-2%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

51 comments:

Spot said...

Blacklist is poised to be the biggest scripted show since Grey's.


Only if NBC had started it earlier instead of doing a big post-game show, the game ended around 7:05-7:10 PT.


Now they hope some of those viewers will tune for at least the first thursday episode, at least people are aware of the show, now it' time to see it can handle Scandal and be a lead-in by itself..

Spot said...

7 isn't primetime in west coast right?

Spot said...

Okay. 7 is normal primetime in central. I wasn't sure

Spot said...

It is on sunday, but west coast's normal primetime is 8-11 PM like in the east

Spot said...

I think its worth noting a repeat of Shark Tank did a 1.0 at 10 (Better than all January episodes of Revenge). Good for it. It was a great choice for airing at 10 as you can jump in whenever.

Spot said...

Did anyone else see that Scorpion is a repeat tonight? That seems strange seeing as it is the beginning of sweeps. We've discussed that Scorpion has a higher than average amount of episodes already aired, but it seems strange to have a repeat. Assuming they have the same size order, Scorpion should be 2 episodes in front of LA (one from premiere week and the other from the post AFC championship game). Doing a 2 hour NCIS: LA tonight would put them in synch they would not be airing a repeat during sweeps. Now they will have to have a repeat into an original another time this year too

Spot said...

Didn't NBC order timezone ratings for the Super Bowl like FOX does to American Idol's live premieres?
I thought we'd have the finals by now.

Spot said...

I noticed it too. But, like you, only today.

According to thefutoncritic, Scorpion has 22 episodes, and NCSI: LA 24. If true, Scorpion will have exceptionally ugly schedule, thefutoncritic says next 4 Mondays it is:
Today :repeat
2/9: original
2/16: Stevie Wonder Special (9-11 PM)
2/23: probably original

Spot said...

Which would give them, what?, 5 originals left for March, April, and May? That's pretty crazy

Spot said...

I think that is not accurate. I think they will do 25 episodes, hence la airing out of a repeat tonight. La probably does 24 so it has a two hour finale.

Spot said...

Yes. Well, maybe CBS ordered additional episodes. It's procedural, after all. But they didn't announce it, so we can just guess.

Spot said...

That really is pathetic for Revenge, considering it was a repeat on Super Bowl night for Shark Tank that usually does twice Revenge's demo on a Friday no less.

Spot said...

Early speculation: which show is going to get the lead-out of the next Super Bowl?


I see Scorpion and Mom as the front runners, but maybe CBS will mix The Odd Couple, in case they want to air two comedies and it makes past the first season, or a new show if they trust it, I mean, their last two picks were a premiere and a freshman.

Spot said...

Can't see why they wouldn't. They have a hit drama. It's owned by them and renewed. Nothing wrong with padding that syndi package early!

Spot said...

They should premiere a new show after SB since the old ones barely or don't benefit. Obviously they are going to put either Scorpion or a CBS Studios newbie in the slot.

Spot said...

I also don't see why they wouldn't.
I'm just saying they didn't announced it. Their PR is sloppy and lazy, so I wouldn't be surprised if CBS had ordered more episodes, only they never informed anyone outside of the company.

Spot said...

Limitless.

To save you from googling: new CBS owned drama from Kurtzman & Orci (Scorpion, H50)

Spot said...

I think we're all on the same page here but Monday thru Saturday Central Time Zone primetime is 7-10pm, with the local news starting at 10pm every night. Sunday primetime in every time zone is 4 hours long and starts an hour earlier in each time zone (6pm in Central).

Everyone knows that ALL of us living in the Central Time Zone have chores to finish before sunrise like milking the cows and collecting the chicken eggs before we start mendin' the fences and plowin' the fields when the sun comes up :)

Spot said...

Joe Adlain is reporting that the Superbowl had 114.4 million viewers.

Spot said...

26.5 million viewers for the Blacklist.

Spot said...

I'm sure Joe Adlain is messing with me... But he's reporting that The Blacklist did a 8.7. What?

Spot said...

Is official: 8.7 and 26.5 million for The Blacklist, as per NBC's press release.

Spot said...

It's only a full tenth above Elementary's and THAT one started at 11 p.m.

Spot said...

Welp, Red vs. Pope's dead.

Spot said...

Pope has this one in the bag.

Spot said...

This comes with a caveat, it seems: "Note that these fast-official ratings for “Blacklist” are subject to minor revision in official nationals expected from Nielsen Tuesday morning to adjust for a late start time in the Boston market due to a local post-game show."

Spot said...

Correction: The Office was 11.0 in A18-49.

Spot said...

Not good. But I'll take take the bad with the good. Meaning, if Blacklist will do this disappointing at Thursday too, then Greenblatt is one step closer to exit doors. I doubt it can happen after this season, but if the next season would be this bad for NBC...


With a big severance package, and off to ruining some other business, but life's not fair.

Spot said...

I guess this ends the Pope vs Red debate even before it begins.

Spot said...

NBC's press release also states 8.7 in A18-49


Surprisingly low.

Spot said...

This is a major letdown.

Spot said...

To put in context of other recent Super Bowl lead-outs:
2015 prelim - The Blacklist (10:38) - 8.7 in A18-49 - 26.5m
2014 - New Girl (10:20)/Brooklyn Nine Nine (10:55) - 11.4/6.9 - 26.3m/15.07m
2013 - Elementary (11:15) - 7.8 - 20.8m
2012 - The Voice (10:15) - 16.3 - 37.6m
2011 - Glee (10:35) - 11.1 - 26.8m
2010 - Undercover Boss (10:15) - 16.2 - 38.7m
2009 - The Office (10:45) - 12.9 - 22.9m

Spot said...

Anyone wanna share their updated thoughts on how the Blacklist will do Thursdays?
At the same level of the fall run or below?

Spot said...

This Thursday predictions
Scandal 3.3
Blacklist 2.9
Backstrom 0.9

Don't take those numbers seriously -- because three days ago I said it will be a tie at 3.2, and over next three days probably I will change my opinion three more times.

Spot said...

I just wish The Blacklist did better. Not good at all. =|

Spot said...

Bob signed through 2017 in 2013, but I bet if The Voice goes under 2.0, he's fired the next day.

Spot said...

Blacklist now? Around its fall numbers. It'll be good, great even, but its not the network savior (though when was the last time a show "saved" the network?)

Spot said...

Empire

Spot said...

I would take Sandal down a notch and Backstorm up a notch. Something like:
Scandal: 3.1
The Blacklist: 2.9
Backstorm: 1.1

Spot said...

I stand corrected.

Spot said...

I kind of think The Voice will have a decent Spring Season though. X-Tina is back and the show will have a much easier time competition wise than it had in the fall. I am cautiously optimistic. By the way, we should be about to get a February Best Case-Worst Case thing!

Spot said...

Remember when we all used to hate on Paul Lee and thought he was an embarrassment to the industry? Those were the days...

Spot said...

Funny how the Walking Dead might just tie for the highest-rated scripted episode this year, including the freaking Super Bowl lead-out.

Spot said...

;)

I would also contest the notion that NBC is truly in a place where it needs saving. It is certainly in a much better shape than it was in the pre voice years, it is not even comparable. And while CBS is still winning the season, NBC isn't that behind. The problem is that their new class is a big, big miss with no redeeming qualities but I think midseason can give them some redemption, the same way ABC had its own last year (Shield, Goldbergs) even in spite of a set of flops of epic proportions (Wonderland, Lucky 7, Killer Women, Mind Games, Betrayal, Mixology, SFN). NBC is trendig down sharply and is also way too much dependent on the voice, sure, but I don't think they are on that breaking point yet. FOX was in much worse shape this fall for instance.

Spot said...

Can you imagine what the show would do with a post Super Bowl slot? Jeez!

Spot said...

Yes, I know. But if there will be two awful development seasons (2014-15 & 2015-16), I hope they would change the skipper. Why wait one more year for inevitable? Why not let new captain try to right the ship?

Spot said...

I still think he's embarrassment. He picked Shonda's show, and he's suddenly a genius? Wow, how visionary and bold.
I'll remember him as a clown that picked Galavant, Forever, Super Fun Night, Killer Women, Lucky 7, The Neignbors, Red Widow, Zero Hour, Work It, Pan Am, Man Up, Charlie's Angels.
And many more flops, only those not being so much embarrassing both creatively and in ratings.

Spot said...

Supergirl? It seems like the best fit compared to other CBS stuff.

Spot said...

But didn't last week's Scandal episode finished on a huge cliffhanger? Which wasn't the case with previous half-season/season premieres, only in half-season/season finales. I didn't watch, but I remember someone said it few days ago in comments here.

Spot said...

Yeah, still can't agree. Oh, it's better, especially since their veterans are still holding very well, especially PD. But the issue here is trying to add depth. In this season, we've had the highest-rated newbie being Mysteries of Laura which is getting 1.0s, as well as doing scheduling ideas that didn't work then, and isn't working now. Plus their comedies are so bad, NBC's in identity crisis. At least back then there was The Office. Now you can blame it on pilots or competition, and I do admit that their midseason lineup looks pretty decent, but the idea that it doesn't need some sort of help or saving or whatnot is a bit ludicrous.

Spot said...

Yes. Olivia was put back in the cell after she falsely tried to escape.


I think it was @ChrisJ that said it.

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