Thursday, February 19, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Tuesday 2/17/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: The CW ended up exactly even week-to-week as The Flash (1.5) went up and Supernatural (0.8) down. NCIS (2.6) also added a tenth, keeping it away from a new 2015 low.
  • On the week before The Voice shakes up the Tuesday landscape, ABC put itself in good position to withstand the onslaught. Week three for Fresh Off the Boat (1.9) had its most encouraging point yet, up by two tenths vs. the 8/7c episode last week, and Repeat After Me (1.4) had a reasonable enough start for cheap 8:30 filler. The next-to-last Agent Carter (1.4) was even at 9/8c, but an Oscar preview at 10/9c flopped (0.8).
  • There were several other winners in the last pre-Voice week. After an weak result last Tuesday, Fox had a huge rebound for MasterChef Junior (1.8) that spilled a bit into the 9/8c hour with New Girl (1.4) and The Mindy Project (1.1). NBC inched back up in each half-hour for the penultimate week of Parks and Recreation (1.2/1.1). And the CW was pretty average with The Flash (1.4) and Supernatural (0.9), which is always a good thing.
  • The only significant hits came on CBS, where NCIS (2.5) and NCIS: New Orleans (2.0) each had their weakest numbers of 2015 to date.

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
Fresh Off the Boat 1.9 39% +6%+0.1n/a 3/5 n/a +12% +138% 1.9
Repeat After Me 1.4 41% n/an/an/a 1/1 n/a -22% +100% 1.4
Agent Carter 1.4 43% +0%+0.0-0.4 3/6 n/a +4% +115% 1.3
Countdown to the Oscars 0.8 33% -20% -27% +33% 1.0
ABC:-8%+93%
NCIS 2.6 18% -10%-0.3n/a 6/15 n/a -9% +100% 2.5
NCIS: New Orleans 2.0 17% -13%-0.3-0.3 13/15 n/a -13% +43% 1.7
Person of Interest 1.6 22% +0%+0.0-0.3 7/15 n/a +0% +45% 1.6
CBS:-8%+63%
Parks and Recreation 1.2 52% +20%+0.2n/a 7/10 n/a +9% -70% 1.3
Parks and Recreation 1.1 57% -8%-0.1n/a 9/11 n/a +10% -78% 1.3
Marry Me 0.8 49% +0%+0.0+0.1 9/14 n/a +0% -85% 0.9
About a Boy 0.7 37% -22%-0.2+0.0 14/14 -68% -22% -87% 0.9
Chicago Fire 1.4 28% +0%+0.0-0.2 14/15 n/a -3% -71% 1.7
NBC:-1%-77%
MasterChef Junior 1.8 42% +29%+0.4n/a 1/7 n/a +29% -32% 1.8
New Girl 1.4 58% +8%+0.1+0.4 5/16 n/a +8% -46% 1.5
The Mindy Project 1.1 57% +10%+0.1+0.1 3/16 n/a +10% -59% 1.1
Fox:+20%-42%
The Flash 1.5 47% +0%+0.0n/a 4/14 n/a +0% +400% 1.5
Supernatural 0.8 49% +0%+0.0+0.0 10/14 n/a -6% +167% 0.6
CW:-2%+283%
Big5:-1%-27%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

62 comments:

Spot said...

Impressive for Fresh. Not sure The Voice will be loud enough to tip the boat.

Spot said...

I didn't expect to see Fresh off the Boat do this well! This creates a very interesting situation for ABC. If these numbers hold, will they able to exercise some restraint and premiere just one new comedy next fall? I would argue that this isn't much different than a Middle type of player, so this is probably the best argument we've had yet not to mess with Wednesday 8pm hour.

Also, I wonder if ABC would be interested in replacing Cristela with Repeat After Me if these numbers hold. They would probably pull similar numbers and Repeat After Me would do it at a fraction of the cost.

Spot said...

FOTB did very well.


It looks like ABC has a winner in its hands (which is ironic, considering they didn't even want it to begin with). I realize we still have to go through The Voice but FOTB looks promising.

Spot said...

Then they're crazy if they thought MLS or Selfie were going to do well at all.

Spot said...

RAM would probably work better as a Friday show.

Spot said...

It depends on how it holds up, so far it seems to be doing well enough.

Spot said...

Those were from ABC Studios.


FOTB isn't.

Spot said...

Not unlike Mixology, all were targeted to the same prized youth demo. All probably sounded a lot better and more promising in the planning stage than the execution.

Spot said...

Selfie was not from ABC Studios.

Spot said...

Studios or not, it was foolish as FotB was more in line with their other comedies that have worked for them as opposed to the flop sitcoms.

Spot said...

Then it was from which studio?

Spot said...

Mixology was also a misfire that was obvious, same with the disastrous Super Fun Night.

Spot said...

WB

Spot said...

Poor Trophy Wife. Kept from its supposed place in the schedule by Mixology.

Spot said...

Yeah, the scheduling was completely awful last season.

Spot said...

I think people exaggerate a bit the way ABC mistreated Trophy Wife. The Goldbergs, and now FOTB, prove it is possible to find a way in a horrible situation. And it is not like The Goldbergs was some horrible pairing for TW. They were both family comedies - people wanted them part of the same Wednesday block. Had it had better retention from it, it would have been rescued too.

Spot said...

The FOX comedies are on the y2y upswing now. Nice for them.

Spot said...

FOTB is a pleasant surprise for ABC (and for me), I think it will hold up against The Voice, at least I'm not expecting the show to crash and burn like Selfie and MLS. Much like Parenthood, Parks will be up for its final season and Parks will be up by a lot, I'm expecting a 100 plus for the finale as well.

Spot said...

Playing devil's advocate here: FOTB had an, arguably, better start than TW. It got to air after two of ABC's biggest comedies shows (MF and TM) and it had the opportunity to air on Tuesdays without The Voice being there.

Spot said...

My theory is audience currently being hungry for broadcast comedies, and ABC just got lucky here. Look at this terrible scorecard:
Likely cancellation: Cristela, Galavant.
Ending: TAAHM, Parks & Recreation.
Sophomores cancelled: The Millers, About A Boy.
Rookies cancelled: Mulaney, Selfie, Manhattan Love Story, Marry Me, The McChartys, Bad Judge, A to Z.

That's 14.

Spot said...

It would be funny if P&R continued being the highest comedy for NBC this season.

Spot said...

Well, if your theory is correct, then we should be seeing nice results for Odd Couple and the NBC comedy duo too. I am not saying you are wrong, it is possible, just saying that if that is indeed the case, the other comedies should benefit as well.

Spot said...

Yes, like The Office was in its final season by a large margin. Sucks for NBC though since none of its remaining comedies are at least in the marginal territory without the good lead in from The Voice.

Spot said...

Yeah, it's sad for NBC though.

Even with a Voice lead in, Marry Me didn't do well.

Spot said...

Well, Trophy Wife premiered after a 3.1 Goldbergs, which is something like a 2.8 in today's ratings. I don't see any fundamental difference between that and the 2.2 FOTB got from the middle and the 3.3 it got from MF.

I am not arguing that Trophy Wife shouldn't have been taken care of better. But it wasn't in a much worse position than Goldbergs and that one managed to turn it around, like FOTB is doing now. My point is: ABC could have taken better care of it, but the show could and should have given the more reason for them to do so. Its situation wasn't as impossible as some people make it out to be.

Spot said...

Yes, I think The Odd Couple and Undateable will have strong premiere numbers. I'm not sure for later episodes, but I'm optimistic for both. Not sure about One Big Happy, though,
However, unlike FOTB, those are given strong lead-ins, so my theory wouldn't be proven by those two doing strongly. At least not completely proven.

Spot said...

Yes, to judge if your theory is right using those shows we would have to use TRUE numbers to see whether or not they show strength as a way to get past the lead-in bias.

By the way, I am curious about what you think ABC would do with its comedies if FOTB holds up. Do you think they would premiere just one fall weekday comedy despite all the pilots they are ordering?

Spot said...

No olympics, but the point still stands.

Spot said...

Fresh off the Boat set itself up well with the growth this week. A black-ish | Fresh off the Boat comedy block on Tuesday looks more probable if FOTB can hold up against The Voice in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Repeat After Me's start could spell trouble for Cristela if ABC decides they want another season of Last Man Standing but not Cristela.

What abnormal drops for the NCIS pair. There was no powerhouse elsewhere on the night that would suck their audience away, and Person of Interest held steady w2w. Is it the network's turn to have schizophrenic jumps for its shows a la 2013-2014 Grimm?

Spot said...

I have yet to properly explore this theory but I believe CBS shows tend to go up and down depending on the strength of the days before. Last week they had Grammys on Sunday and the Scorpion & LA duo on Monday. This week they had CSI in repeat ratings territory on Sunday and a music special on Monday. Promotion and awareness seems to fluctuate with these things. LA in particular could be more of a factor than we give it credit for me.

Spot said...

By the way, The CW won the night in a tie with FOX in A18-34. Very nice for them.

Spot said...

Given FOTB is now likely renewal, I think yes. I like Chris' idea:
Tue: Black-ish / FOTB (diversity block)
Wed: Middle / Goldbergs / Modern Family / new single-cam.

Friday then could be 2 new multi-cams or Last Man Standing + new.
ABC now has 5 multi-cam pilots. They ordered only 2 in first wave, but later they ordered Dr. Ken, Buck and one more.
That's bad news for Cristela. And that could mean short order for LMS. Like 13-14 episodes, and being backup for risky move of two new Friday comedies. Could be, I'm not saying it will be.

Spot said...

You are 100% right about people acting like Trophy Wife was screwed over. It was doing mid 50's retention out of already pretty marginal Goldbergs. Even on nights when Goldbergs had a repeat lead in. Trophy Wife would have been renewed if it aired after Modern Family, because it would have probablh posted low 50's retention from it and mid 1's would have been enough for ABC to reach for their studio. But it would have set ABC back and it would have collapsed anywhere else.

Spot said...

Out of curiosity, would you be against Fresh and Dr. Ken together on Tuesday? I'm certain it will appeal to the Asian demographic, likely little
comedy competition (unless NBC hoes comedy/Voice/drama), and SHIELD already has Ming-Na Wen.

Spot said...

But how would you explain 2 Broke Girls and Mike & Molly performing at their average level on Monday?

Spot said...

Wait what? Nevermind my last comment, Mindy was on hiatus last year from in from the end of January to Aril

Spot said...

My personal opinion: keep a single-cam and multi-cam from sharing an hour. I'd rather see Dr. Ken undergo a format change and go single-cam if you want a pairing with FOTB.

Spot said...

Huh. Coulda sworn Dr. Ken was singlecam. Okay then.

Spot said...

I think FOTB is looking a bit stronger than Blackish right now so if they will pair the two I would rather see FOTB leading the hour. I still have issues with moving Blackish though. But in any case my point wasn't as much in terms of moves as it was in terms of ABC premiering just one new thing. I know they did with The Neighbors a few years ago but still I am not sure they would be happy stopping right there. And if they do premiere just one new thing, then we should probably start looking only at ABC Studio pilots since I doubt there isn't one on the fall schedule.


As for Friday, I hadn't realized there were 5 multi-cams pilots. That's a lot! What will they do with all that? I thought it was also possible that they placed Repeat After Me after LMS on Friday if they don't feel like trying something else in there. But with all those pilots I don't think it's likely.

Spot said...

I don't want Dr. Ken at Tuesday, but only because it's multi-cam.

Initially wanted Dr. Ken at Wednesday 9:30 PM. I learned Dr. Ken is multi-cam since. So I think it's for Friday.

I'm not against mixing single-cams and multi-cams in general. I think it's a myth that it never works. But I think it's better not to mix them in case network has a choice, And ABC here clearly have a choice,

Spot said...

http://deadline.com/2015-abc-pilots/

Deadline claims it is multi cam.

Spot said...

The half hour running time for Repeat After Me is somewhat unique for reality shows. If it can maintain this rating or even build on it a little in its Tuesday place holder role, ABC might have a nice little utility player as either one standalone half hour episode or two back to back ones, filling an entire hour. Not having to invest a full hour in a mindless reality show that seems mildly amusing but hardly groundbreaking, has some appeal. I agree with other comments that a Friday trial run makes sense, too (as a possible replacement for Cristela or as a bridge series to minimize repeats)..

Spot said...

Both ABC and FOX literally invented shows out of mid air to fill gaps. There seems to be a formula
1. Get an actor who had a minor role in the film Bridesmaids
2. Have them have a new comedy on Tuesday in fall of 2013
3. Have that comedy be moved to a new night in 2014
4. Have that comedy post y2y raw growth
5. Invent a show out of thin air. Get said actor to host.
World's Funniest Fails and Repeat After Me follow that formula!

Spot said...

Yes, me too. Because of description. But later I learned it's multi cam.

Spot said...

Ahah nice!

Spot said...

5 pilots + Last Man Standing = 3 shows, 2 for fall + 1 backup.
So 2 or 3 picked to series, depending on if LMS is renewed.
With Cristela odd woman out, I suppose.

Spot said...

There's a possibility that I didn't think could happen, but it may: a 4-comedy block on Tuesdays. Do I think it's wise? No. It requires both FOTB and black-ish to be anchors with at least one multi-cam mixed in, or FOTB/black-ish leading off the night with unproven sitcoms at 9:00 (and SHIELD moving to 10:00).

It is in ABC's interest to find new sitcoms since The Middle and Modern Family are entering season 7, and Warner Bros. hasn't even entered contract negotiations with the cast of The Middle since ABC hasn't said they aren't picking them up yet. But I would not recommend going hard on Tuesdays with 4 comedies unless they have a slam-dunk show a la Modern Family in development.

Spot said...

Yeah I think that would be a big mistake. They don't have the comedy depth to do that. And the argument that they need comedies would also apply to dramas. I wouldn't go there.

Spot said...

You are overestimating Trophy Wife much.
Super Fun Night had stronger True than TW, but couldn't hold 50% or retention after holidays. If we look at Spot's True, instead of 0-8-1.0 Trophy Wife scored on Tuesday late in the run, it would be at 1.2-1.3 leading out Modern Family.
So I think they ABC was wise not to waste MF on it.
But I don't understand why they didn't at least tried Goldbergs on Wednesday last spring (at 8:30 PM instead of Suburgatory if they already were hell bent on giving 9:30 PM to Mixology).

Spot said...

In theory ABC can schedule 4 comedies on Friday too, with Shark Tank on Tuesday 8 PM. TGIF, yay.
But I think it would be ill-advised, that only SHIELD having benefit of it, and ABC having a net loss in ratings.

Spot said...

I don't think this explains everything obviously and I think it probably affects more the dramas than the comedies anyway. Probably a case of 2BG and MM getting no advantage from airing post Grammys (so no post drop this week either) but NCIS and NCIS NO having an advantage from airing post Grammys-Scorpion-LA (so post drop this week).

In any case, like I said, this is just a speculative theory, I never actually did any studies on this.

Spot said...

I'm so happy for FOB as it's my favorite new comedy. Repeat After Me did okay considering it's cheap and ABC just took out of thin air for a companion for FOB.

Spot said...

Does it bode well for The Odd Couple despite the critics labeling it as a dud?

Spot said...

Yes, it bodes well for The Odd Couple, in my opinion.
Critics are overrated. I mean, while I find them having much better taste than the one of general audience, I don't consider it impeccable.
More important, I don't think there's much correlation between critics' grades and commercial success of the shows. I just feel so, I don't know for any research proving it one way or another (though, it would be nice if Spot or someone else would do one).
For example, Metacritic averages for CBS renewed rookies are:
48 Scorpion
55 NCIS: New Orleans
66 Madam Secretary

Spot said...

I doubt most audiences care whether critics like it or not. If quality really mattered, then Simpsons would've been canceled 15 years ago, and Arrested Development would've lasted 10 seasons and a trilogy. And Odd Couple's premiere is surrounded by the biggest comedy currently on television, and the series finale to a series that's been on for over 12 years. Even the most vile critics of "new" 2.5 Men will probably check it out, despite how awful this season and the overall promotion for said season has been.

Meanwhile, there's a combination of lack of comedies for comedy fans to drool over, and a familiar brand, all of which will get CBS fans, Odd Couple fans, and Friends fans watching, at least for the premiere.

Spot said...

So, today Idol enters lower rated performances weeks? Or that's the next week?

Either way, get ready for the wave of doomsayers predicting Idol's soon death. Those are gonna compare those low 2s (and 1s that are coming very soon) with high rated early episodes. Completely wrong, and equally wrong as those who until now have preached Idol's -25% y2y as a bounce back season. Those were comparing high rated early episodes with last season's lows, because of having memory of a goldfish, or whatever the reason.

Spot said...

To be honest, I don't really have a strong opinion on Idol this year.It is down 20% so far this year which is an acceptable result, although one that should still be improved. So could be better, could be worse. Has the y2y trend changed drastically in the past when the show got into the performances? I don't watch so I don't actually know when that is happening, so it is an honest question.

Spot said...

It's actually 25% down y2y. You're probably not taking in account that there was one more week of Auditions this season.

I'm telling performances always did lower than Auditions/Hollywood Round, and in last few years drastically lower than Auditions/Hollywood Round. It has nothing to do with y2y trend.

Spot said...

It's very likely a dead show that won't live to see a new season next year. As usual, The Big Bang lead will bring the eyeballs for the premiere but I can't imagine many coming back for a return visit. I believe this Odd Couple has achieved the lowest combined metacritic score for a comedy this year and nearly the lowest for any new network program overall. The highest compliment I read was that hopefully this Odd Couple version eventually becomes funny at some point.. Can 18 professional critics all be so wrong? I'd really like to see Matthew Perry find some post-Friends success; he's got talent and is likable.

Spot said...

And just when you thought Fox Sunday scheduling could not get anymore idiotic, they're pre-empting Family Guy (AGAIN!) to give Last Man on Earth a 1-hour launch out of B99. Pathetic, if you ask me.

Spot said...

Just? They announced it back in November.
But I agree it seems idiotic. Perhaps Fox bosses believe first episode doesn't show well what viewers can expect of the show?
Maybe that first one is kinda dark, as he learns his family and everyone he knew are dead. Just guessing.

Spot said...

I don't think critical reception really affects CBS dramas because most of them are procedurals, so they are doomed from the start for mediocre critical reception. As for their recent new comedies,
We Are Men: 33 Pulled After 2 Episodes
The Odd Couple: 43 (Well, as of this post)
Friends With Better Lives: 45 Cancelled, Pulled
The Millers: 50 Cancelled after 1.5 seasons
Bad Teacher: 51 Cancelled, Burnoff on Saturday
The McCarthys: 53 Partial Backorder, effectively canceled
The Crazy Ones: 58 Cancelled, 2.08 Average, Better than others except post BBT The Millers.
Mom: 65 Last one standing.

I think that the reason why most of them failed were they were just plain bad to both audiences and critics.

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