Thursday, February 19, 2015

Spotted Ratings, Wednesday 2/18/15


WHAT MATTERS:
  • FINALS UPDATE: Empire's latest record was smashed again with a finals uptick to 5.2. As usual, The 100 (0.5) adjusted down, but the CW got it back at 8/7c as Arrow (1.2) went up to match its non-crossover season high from two weeks ago. Also up were Idol (2.8) and Modern Family (3.1), while Stalker (1.2) was down.
  • Fox's rookie phenom Empire began the second half of season one in familiar fashion: with week-to-week growth, this time by 6% to another new record 5.1. It's now within realistic reach of the biggest entertainment episode on broadcast this season: the 5.5 for The Big Bang Theory's season premiere.
  • CBS said goodbye to veteran drama The Mentalist in rather blah fashion, with a 1.3 at 8/7c and a 1.4 for the last episode at 9/8c. These were really no different than what the show has been getting since its move to Wednesday. And its presence at 9/8c significantly weakened CBS, opening the floodgates for NBC's Law and Order: SVU (1.6) and Chicago PD (1.7). SVU posted its best ratings since the last time there was no Criminal Minds on January 7, while PD had its best number since the big crossover in November.
  • The only real notable on another original night for ABC was the softening of Modern Family (3.0), but its 3.4 and 3.3 in the last couple weeks seemed like overachievements anyway. The Middle, The Goldbergs and Black-ish all tied at 2.2, and Nashville (1.3) inched back down.
  • On the CW, it was another 1.1 for Arrow and yet another preliminary 0.6 for The 100...

FULL TABLE:

InfoShowTimeslotTrue
A18-49 Skew Last LeLa Rank y2yTLa Ty2y
The Middle 2.2 36% +5%+0.1n/a 2/14 n/a +5% +120% 2.3
The Goldbergs 2.2 41% +0%+0.0+0.1 6/13 n/a +0% +214% 2.2
Modern Family 3.1 45% -6%-0.2+0.0 12/15 n/a -6% +158% 3.0
Black-ish 2.2 44% +5%+0.1-0.2 10/14 n/a +5% +144% 1.9
Nashville 1.3 35% -7%-0.1+0.1 10/13 n/a -7% +160% 1.4
ABC:-2%+156%
The Mentalist 1.3 16% -7%-0.1n/a 6/12 n/a -24% -21% 1.5
Stalker 1.2 23% -14%-0.2-0.6 17/17 n/a -17% -38% 1.4
CBS:-22%-28%
The Mysteries of Laura 1.1 24% +10%+0.1n/a 12/15 n/a +5% -76% 1.3
Law and Order: SVU 1.6 31% +14%+0.2+0.1 8/15 n/a +14% -70% 1.9
Chicago PD 1.7 30% +21%+0.3+0.2 3/15 n/a +21% -68% 1.8
NBC:+14%-71%
American Idol Wed 2.8 33% +0%+0.0n/a 6/7 +6% +2% +4% 2.9
Empire 5.2 51% +8%+0.4+0.0 1/7 n/a +8% +96% 4.8
Fox:+6%+50%
Arrow 1.2 52% +9%+0.1n/a 2/14 n/a +9% +300% 1.3
The 100 0.5 45% +0%+0.0+0.1 4/13 n/a +0% +100% 0.5
CW:+6%+209%
Big5:+1%-8%

KEY (click to expand)
A18-49 - Adults 18-49 rating. Percentage of US TV-owning adults 18-49 watching the program.
Skew - Percentage of adults 18-49 within the show's total viewership.
Last - A18-49 difference (percent and numerical) from the show's previous episode.
LeLa - A18-49 difference between the show's lead-in and its lead-in for the previous episode.
Rank - The A18-49 rating's rank among the show's episodes so far this season.
y2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the show's rating a year ago.
TLa - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one week ago.
Ty2y - Percent difference between A18-49 and the network's rating in the timeslot one year ago.
True - A metric that adjusts the A18-49 rating for overall viewing levels, competition and lead-in. PRELIMINARY CALCULATION. For finals, see SpotVault.

(R) - Repeat.

Much more detail on these numbers at the New Daily Spotted Ratings page.

More Spotted Ratings in the Index.

43 comments:

Spot said...

Empire is just killing it. MF is still holding on despite the major competition Empire is giving it and it's funny to see all 3 comedies behind it tied at 2.2


The 100 will go down to 0.5 like always

Spot said...

Empire is otherworldly. Idol did very good too. Format tweaks start to pay off.

I think I finally understand Wed/Thu schedule of Fox:

Wed 03/11 - Idol (12 Finalists Revealed) / Empire #10
Thu 03/12 - Idol (12 Finalists Perform) / Backstrom #8
Wed 03/18 - 2 hours Empire finale
Thu 03/19 - 2 hours Idol (2 of 12 Finalists Sent Home), Backstrom preempted
Wed 03/25 - 2 hours Idol (10 Finalists Perform + Results)
Thu 03/26 - Bones returns (at 8 PM, Backstrom #9 at 9 PM)
Wed 04/01 - 2 hours Idol (9 Finalists Perform + Results)
Thu 04/02 - Bones / Backstrom

If Backstrom is pulled, then probably Fox will simply have Idol Results on Thursday.
Yes, it would be too much of Idol (back to 3 hours per week), but that's the most easy way.

Spot said...

Other than CBS and Laura, everyone was a big winner last night in my book. Empire is obviously out of this Earth and I think everyone at FOX should be fired right away if they don't turn this thing into a year-round program. But elsewhere, ABC had an excellent night, NBC (minus Laura) also did very well and Arrow remains stout for the CW! On ABC, I think the performance of Black-ish deserves props. It went up against the 5.3 half hour of Empire and only lost 0.8 from Modern Family. That's pretty good. I really don't think ABC should move it! On NBC, I would also highlight Chicago PD. Yes, it is going up against no competition and has a reliable lead-in to help it up but it just tied last week's Blacklist numbers and it is managing to grow despite not having that much attention from the network. And Arrow is having what I think is its strongest run of episodes ever ratings wise (quality wise possibly too). The Mentalist did quite terribly for a finale, I thought it would hit high 1s.

Spot said...

Doesn't Empire need 5.2 to surpass Desperate Housewives adjusted season 1 peak? And there's a minute of Idol in its rating.

I have to be honest, before it premiered I thought Empire would bomb. Not my finest prediction!

Spot said...

Oh I didn't realize CPD tied TBL's last rating. XD.

Empire within snatching distance of TBBT.

Spot said...

It might with the way it's been growing like the monster it is.

Spot said...

You're right, FOX released a promo on yesterday's Empire saying there are 4 weeks left.


Its episode order is 12, so, they are doing a one-hour finale. In the end, Backstrom will probably play its order, but will FOX hold Bones episodes for next year, allowing them to film less due to Emily's pregnancy?

Spot said...

5.2 would put it past the huge spike in week 8. The actual season 1 peak was the 13.4 season finale, which would take a 5.5 or 5.6.

Spot said...

Empire does it again, this show is going to beat TBBT's average (currently it is trailing 4.57-4.43).



Bad day for CBS, NBC capitalized except for Laura, ABC had an average night, The 100 will probably be adjusted down again.

Spot said...

I think given the competition ABC was above average, particularly Blackish.

Spot said...

Interesting that The Goldbergs failed to build on the Middle. I think that's first time its happen this year.
Speaking of the Middle; look at it go! After a slow start it has really seemed to become a stronger peformer as the season has gone on

Spot said...

It's the second. It happened sometime before.

Spot said...

No, this is the first time (At least with the information we have).

On episode 9, The Middle had a 2.16 and The Goldbergs had a 2.24. Therefore, both shows were rounded to a 2.2, although The Goldbergs practically built by its usual 0.1 on the middle.

Spot said...

Then it's very possible with the way it's been growing if it does happen.

Spot said...

Spot's prediction of being even y2y is looking more and more possible. It is down only 4% y2y now!

Spot said...

Well, we don't know the finals, unrounded.

Spot said...

And there were people who wanted to get rid of it or move it to Fridays. XD.

Spot said...

Exactly it did fine, especially with MF and Blackish going up against heavy competition.

Spot said...

Deja Vu. ABC, Wednesday February 15th, 2012:
2.4 The Middle
2.4 Suburgatory
4.7 Modern Family
2.4 Happy Endings

Spot said...

I'd love to see how well blackish would perform if aired behind a 4.7 from MF

Spot said...

Better than Super Fun Night or Mixology would, that's sure.

Spot said...

They can just order less episodes like Scandal did in S3 when Kerry was pregnant.

Spot said...

MIDDLE will go up to a 2.3 and MODERN FAMILY to a 3.1, I'm pretty sure

Spot said...

That's freaky, but at the very least TM didn't drop too much and remained relatively steady which is great.

Spot said...

I thought The Mentalist could inch slightly higher for its finale, similar to how it peaked last season after wrapping up the Red John storyline. *Shrug* At least Stalker stayed at its low-end result instead of finding a new one. Again, *Shrug*.

Not that there will be a Question about this, but anyone want to base a spread between Chicago PD's result here and The Blacklist tonight? I think odds are better than 50-50 that PD will be NBC's highest-rated scripted show of the week, and tied with Celebrity Apprentice as highest-rated show of the week. If NBC had to wait until late-March for The Voice to come back, this season would be a bigger loss than a few seasons ago.

It's a pleasant surprise that The Middle has caught a second wind during this season, especially against a stronger Fox, after a lackluster start. If it holds once Survivor comes back, the show definitely feels like the best option to launch Wednesday night come 2015-2016. Still don't see how talks haven't started with ABC, Warner Bros. and the cast about renewing the show.

Spot said...

I do think it's possible that MasterChef Junior could sub in for Bones come 2015-2016 to let the drama start later if production has to wait for Emily to come back. And if they have to order less episodes, just bring back MC Jr. in the Spring.

Spot said...

Yes, your Bones plan looks good to me. It's procedural, so rolling over unaired episodes to next fall looks much better than doubling up Bones at some point in spring.

Spot said...

Watching MF's rating nearly double up its line-up mates frequently reminded me of the limits of the lead-in effect.

Spot said...

I just hope DST doesn't beat it up!

Spot said...

Spot, are we getting a CBS Thursday question today? Two notable things today: TAHM series finale and premiere of The Odd Couple.

Spot said...

I think maybe part of it could be that the Middle shares more audience with Survivor than with American Idol. The Middle is a good performer, and I think it should stay in the anchor spot for at least 1 more season.

Spot said...

If Sleepy Hollow is limited order again, then it makes sense it goes at Thursday 9 PM, so in midseason Idol takes over both Thursday hours with no shows moved elsewhere.
I can see Sleepy Hollow on Friday only if it is 22 episodes season. Otherwise Bones looks like better fit for Friday.

Spot said...

A lead in can only do so much, it can help launch shows if scheduled correctly, but the show itself has to do well enough on its own instead of having fans whining about the lead in or clinging to the misguided hope of some magical lead in bump that'll save a show if it's already doing badly.

Spot said...

Yes but I think for Sleepy Hollow to have any chance whatsoever to survive past next season it needs longer seasons or else the costs will be escalating with backend revenue still far away. My guess is that the show is renewed for 22 episodes and turned into a full fledged procedural a la Supernatural or Grimm (also with some serialized storylines, obviously, but much less than it currently has).

If I am wrong and it gets limited order again, then I agree with you that Thursdays make more sense for that reason alone.

Spot said...

SH is a limited series.

Spot said...

I pretty much agree. I would only add in SVU and PD as possibilities if they have more crossovers and when Empire leaves Wednesdays. SVU is being hurt badly by Empire obviously but if they have another crossover or another big storyline in the show like last season it could do high 1s. And PD would follow suit. Also on Fire, if Big Happy does okay (as in 1.4 or so) I could see it consistently returning to high 1s too even in weeks sans direct voice lead-in.

Spot said...

DC Comics' Lucifer Gets Full Pilot Order at Fox

http://tvline.com/2015/02/19/dc-comics-lucifer-pilot-fox/


Scheduling suggestions? This would be an obvious pair with Gotham if Minority Report wasn't going in there already. Perhaps one is backup in case the other fails? The other alternative, assuming Scream Queens takes Tuesdays, is attacking Thursdays with this and I am not sure FOX would go for that. But it would flow nicely to have this as a lead-in for Sleepy Hollow I guess.

Spot said...

I may just want to pair it with Gotham. It's a 3rd tier DC brand, I'm not sure it csn significantly self start like Gotham

Spot said...

But do you send Minority Report to Thursdays in the process?

Spot said...

Yes, at TCA Walden (or Newman?) said they want it to be more procedural. So it could be 22 episodes. Then it would be:
Wed: Empire / Studio City
Thu: McJ / Bones
Fri: reality ( Funny Fails or whatever) / Sleepy Hollow

January
Wed Empire / Idol
Thu 2 hours idol with Bones on hiatus
Fri: same

February
Wed Empire / new drama (or back 9 of Studio City)
Thu 2 hours Idol

Spot said...

If picked at all, midseason. Especially if Minority Report turns out to be 13 episodes order. Then just slot Lucifer in Mon 9 PM from late January with premiere out of AFC championship game.

Spot said...

Midseason, but my guess is it won't even be picked.

Spot said...

Fox will probably avoid Thursdays for Lucifer just because of Thursday Night Football. If picked up to series, I could see a Monday midseason slot for it to replace Minority Report and give Fox a reason to cancel The Following. A Tuesday lineup of Lucifer | New Girl | The Mindy Project makes no sense, nor does a post-Empire slot on Wednesdays.

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