Monday, February 23, 2015

The Question, Monday 2/23/15: Can The Night Shift Handle a Regular Season Shift?


Faced with one of the most disastrous new series classes for a network in recent memory, NBC is trying something unconventional with its spring season of The Voice: using it to lead into sophomore series that first aired in the summer. It starts tonight with The Voice's premiere followed by the medical drama The Night Shift. TNS had a good lead-in from America's Got Talent last summer, and it proved a reasonable improvement on some other stuff that aired post-Talent in recent seasons. It's still hard to label the season one performance as anything more than modest, but it now gets to try on an even bigger stage. Can The Night Shift handle a regular season shift? That's The Question for Monday, February 23, 2015.


Post-The Voice Drama Launches Voice & Night Shift Recent Seasons
3.8 (Smash, 2/6/12, 6.7 The Voice)
4.1 (Revolution, 9/17/12, 4.7 The Voice)
3.8 (The Blacklist, 9/23/13, 5.1 The Voice)
2.7 (Chicago Fire s2, 9/24/13, 4.7 Voice)
2.7 (Believe, 3/10/14, 3.7 The Voice)
2.2 (State of Affairs, 11/17/14, 3.1 Voice)
5.1 (Voice fall 2013 premiere)
4.7 (Voice spring 2014 premiere)
4.1 (Voice fall 2014 premiere)
1.6 (The Night Shift premiere, 3.0 Talent)
1.36 (The Night Shift season 1 average)

Since this isn't a brand new series, The Night Shift's premiere probably won't be as inflated as most of the shows in the left column. Beyond that, I saw little during the summer to indicate the series was nearly as strong as even the Chicago series, much less previous occupant The Blacklist. But I think this lead-in still gets The Night Shift to a series high by a fairly comfortable margin.

Over/Under: 2.15.

No entries accepted after 6:00am ET the morning after the date in the headline. If editing your pick, please leave a separate comment. All results based on final ratings rounded to the nearest tenth.

40 comments:

Spot said...

Over, slightly.

Spot said...

I going over
2.2 (is there really any hype for this show?)

Spot said...

It surpassed my low expectations in the summer (at least with the premiere) so I feel like being optimistic. Over

Spot said...

+ The Voice lead-in
+ Not too much strong competition in that hour
+ NBC has given it a good amount of promotion
+Fits with TV audience


-Promos haven't been the best
- A summer show returning
- Reviews are okay
- Little to no interest on social media
- No big names

Spot said...

Over.

Spot said...

do you think by alot?

Spot said...

Over

I'm thinking around 60% retention out of around 4.0 The Voice.

I'm pretty sure this is the 7th Spot's questions this season involving NBC, and I think this is the 7th time I'm picking over. I believe outcome was under for 5 of previous 6 NBC questions, with only Laura going over. So if I'm correct, I lost 5 of 6 times, yet I'm picking over again. Talking about definition of insanity. I always find some reason to believe those NBC stinkers would at least premiere with good numbers.

Spot said...

I could see around a mid 2.

Spot said...

The promos have been pushing the soapy and relationship angles of the show heavily. It's a perfect fit to air after the Voice. I'm going with Over.
If State of Affairs can get a 2.2, than so can The Night Shift.
OVER

Spot said...

Over. But not by a lot.

Spot said...

As usual, Spot is killing it. I was saying before that it would premiere in low 1s and I had in mind precisely the 2.1-2.2 range, so of course Spots picks 2.15 forcing me to pick a side ahah.

I am going over because I happen to think the show is worthy creative and that it is a perfect fit with The Voice and the procedural brand that NBC is trying to develop. Also, State of Affairs was such an uncommon bomb and even that one managed to get a 2.2., not to mention that The Voice should be considerably stronger tonight. I do share Spot's worries about TNS not having been anything more than ok in the summer and about the fact that it is a sophomore may hinder the benefits that a timeslot upgrade would create. But I believe there is enough for it to manage to pull through. So Over it is!

Spot said...

For those wondering, The Voice's spring 2013 premiere was a 4.8 if you want to make y2y comparisons instead of cycle to cycle ones. But that premiere was in late March (i.e. post-DST).

I bring that up because, as it seems to be with most NBC Questions involving scripted shows, The Night Shift is going to rely heavily on its reality show lead-in. The Voice will definitely benefit from debuting before DST starts, and ABC gave them some promo during the Oscars with Adam Levine's brief performance. So getting back into the 4's isn't that big of an ask.

Which leads to The Night Shift itself. If it gets the same 42% bump that Chicago Fire got between the season one and two debuts, then it already crests the line with a rounded 2.3. Or to come it from another way, and to link it back to my above commentary, if it mirrors the 53% retention that it got for the post-AGT debut then The Night Shift just needs The Voice to post a 4.1 to get to a rounded 2.2. Both are doable, especially since the drama is moving to a more HUT-friendly part of the calendar. And, as it's been observed before, procedurals with a thin serialized element are probably the best way to capitalize on a reality show's audience; Castle, House, and Bones are good long-running examples of this. The Night Shift fits that bill.

Over.

Spot said...

My God, does Night Shift have a fascinating history. At first it was only a little bow on the Blacklist, only there for decoration, and then discarded into the summer wasteland, about to be burned off and never talked about again, as critics jeered and made fun of the series. And now it gets the best lead-in on the network.

Anyway, the show sadly doesn't seem to be getting that much hype for season 2. The promos haven't been strong, the show was petering out near the end, and has gotten way less promotion than any of the other Voice lead-ins. But the series is Chicago-like, and the promos are focusing on the soapy shiz, so I guess the female audience will love it. And hey, if State got above this line, then the Night Shift can surely do it.

Over at around 2.5

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

I think the most fascinating aspect is that there isnt one but two shows in those conditions. Undateable is an even more extreme case imo

Spot said...

Over

The Voice-4.3
The Night Shift-2.3

Spot said...

I'd argue that The Night Shift got the second-best lead-in NBC has in America's Got Talent (or third-best if you want to count Voice Tuesdays as a separate thing). Night Shift also got to face zero competition on a decently viewed night for the Summer.

Undateable, though, really was a discard: double-pumped in the Summer on NBC's worst weeknight against the NBA Finals and the Independence Day Eve "holiday." The fact that it survived to make season two is a miracle.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

i must go against the grain, so under.

Spot said...

This show has been sampled, it has been rejected, and now it's got the best slot on the network because, well, NBC.

The Voice premiered to a 4.7 last February. That was after two weeks of NBC practically having the entire airwaves to themselves with the Olympics. -20% y2y to a 3.9 from that looks generous, and that leaves Night Shift needing better retention out of that against Castle and NCIS: LA than it managed for its series premiere out of AGT and against PoI (R) and Extreme Wife Swap.

This is the easiest UNDER call I've ever seen and I'm in a minority of two?!?

Spot said...

I wouldn't say the show was rejected. Spot's TRUE claims the show started with a 1.4 strength and finished with the same 1.4 strength so the notion that it was sampled and rejected seems inadequate to me.

Spot said...

Premiere in low 1s? Wow, you're a bit pessimistic. ;)

Spot said...

Under, but barely at 2.0. I'll guess 3.9 for The Voice premiere.

Spot said...

Undateable is the biggest comeback story for sure. My pet idea had been to move season 2 of Undateable to Wednesdays at 9 leading out of the Got Talent Results show. NBC took it one step further.
They clearly weren't all in for the Night Shift either. They scheduled a repeat leading into the finale.

Spot said...

Under.

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over. 2.2

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

Over

Spot said...

over

Spot said...

The Night Shift may reach a series-high but doesn't need a 2.2 to do so. I could envision it doing a 1.9 or 2.0 to win the time slot, even if airing out of The Voice.

Another thing to consider about that Voice lead-in: its direct competition on ABC, "The Bachelor", has risen week after week for the past several weeks, approaching a 3.0. It even soundly crushed the Celebrity Apprentice finale. I don't even think The Voice will stop its momentum as Bachelor season is winding down. We may see a series-low season premiere for The Voice. So all in all...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

Under

Spot said...

TNS got a 3.4 household rating.

HH has no value for skewing but it seems like another NBC flop.

I should just stop overbidding on them

Spot said...

I didn't read that much into The Night Shift's finale number since it had the weaker AGT recap special lead-in and faced the All-Star game.

Spot said...

1-something coming... oh well.

Spot said...

Mr. Howell, it appears you correctly pegged The Night Shift bombing, but are a bit off on the Voice

Spot said...

Kuddos!

Spot said...

Who knew he would be more or less on the right side?

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