Monday, February 2, 2015

War of 18-49 Update, Dancing with the Stars (Fall 2014)

Let's take a look at the fall 2014 season (the nineteenth overall) of Dancing with the Stars on ABC.

Timeslot Lo Avg Hi y2y A18-49+ Label y2y Results
Monday 8:001.6 2.123.0 -2%126*hit +10%* detail

*- For this winter's War of 18-49 updates, the A18-49+ is based on a projected league average, calculated by applying the league average's current year-to-year trend (thru 1/18/15) to the final 2013-14 average. This should help make these numbers compare more fairly with fall seasons past.

Rating the Ratings: It was a somewhat strange season for a franchise that seemed to have a lot of momentum coming into the season. The premiere's 2.4 rating was legitimately disappointing, down by 23% year-to-year despite getting a head start on the regular season competition. The show didn't drop as much as usual in the first few weeks of the regular season, but since the premiere had started it off in a hole, the numbers were still pretty soft (as low as 1.7 on a Monday and 1.6 for a special Tuesday show). The show caught a bit of a second wind in its return to a consistent 2.0 in October, perhaps benefiting from Gotham and The Voice coming back to earth and then The Big Bang Theory leaving the night. After tracking close to even year-to-year for late October/early November, the show then really caught fire in the last three airings. The penultimate Monday (2.3), the Monday finale (2.5) and the Tuesday finale (3.0) were all up double digits vs. the corresponding fall 2013 episodes, including a whooping +25% for the last episode. I give it just a B+ because I don't think it overachieved that much in total; after all, this was still almost 10% behind the previous spring season. But it was definitely at an A level in the closing weeks. Grade: B+.

Here's the now updated War of 18-49 post for Dancing with the Stars.


Spot said...

I think I thought it was doing even better, because even the disappointing points at the beginning kept. adjusting. up! Somtimes multiple tenths. The Nielsen glitch for ABC had a psychological effect the first few weeks. The rich (Sunday, Wednesday, Thursday) got richer and the poor (Monday, Tuesday) got more middle class.
Seriously, I'm glad this show has steadied. Not that I'm a huge fan, I just always root for ABC because I watch now a record 12 shows on their network*.
Solid A- grade from me.

*(America's Funniest Home Videos, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Agents of Shield, Forever, Agent Carter, The Middle, The Goldbergs, Modern Family, How To Get Away With Murder, Shark Tank, Galavant) if anyone is curious

Spot said...

That's a great showing and an indirect demonstration of how important depth is for a network.

Although ABC tuesdays have been their lowest rated night, they didn't lose much by letting DWTS go, if FOX is able to do the same to Idol next season thanks to Empire, they might as well stop the bleeding and prolong its shelf life. NBC can't do it to The Voice when they have only five renewal-worth scripted shows.

Spot said...

Does FOX have 5 renewal worthy shows? I mean Bob's and Brooklyn are renewed, but I'm not sure if they were renew worthy. Same with New Girl and especially Mindy.

Spot said...

FOX has Simpsons, Family Guy, Gotham and Empire, yes, that's only four and two of them are half-hours, which means they have only three hours.

But FOX airs 15 hours of programming, NBC airs 22. But what you say is true Cutting saturdays and sundays at 7, FOX and NBC have the same proportion of good enough hours filled with scripted shows (as 5/18 and 3/11 are 27 and 28% of their hours). Lack of new hits, however, is a killer for NBC, even if they find two post-Voice hits next season, there is no guarantee Grimm will be renewal worth, Chicago PD will be because of their low standards.

Spot said...

I really think the Monday slot for DWTS makes sense for ABC, especially in the Fall when ESPN Monday football airs opposite it and there are always seem to be a few local preemptions. Zero crossover between DWTS and MNF. A few local preemptions, even in some key markets, does less long run damage to this type of (arguably less serious/competitive) reality show than a scripted one.

Spot said...

I'm relatively optimistic about The Night Shift for NBC. I saw one episode last summer and it seems like the perfect type of show to go after the Voice.
But yeah. When Mysteries of Laura is your biggest new show you have a problem. I think Allegiance could catch on. Yes, its basically the same idea as the Americans. But that has stopped other broadcast based on cable shows before. Look at the Mentalist. Same idea as Psych, but CBS made it more "mass appealing" and now its outliving what it was based around.
. NBC is far away from being able to work without the Voice, but I don't think FOX can do away with Idol right now. It's Results series low last year was a 1.5, which as good as anything Hell's Kitchen did this fall.
Sorry for the novel

Spot said...

This is a bit unrelated but I really don't get where this notion that Grimm is suddenly in much more eminent danger than it ever was is coming from. It is basically even in PLUS with last year and higher than in Season 1. Probably only lower than season 2 because that season had Monday and Tuesday episodes. Meanwhile, NBC's average is worse than it was. What gives? Maybe this isn't specific to you but I keep seeing that sentiment everywhere and I really don't get it.

Spot said...

Good grade. I probably wouldn't count the two random tuesday results shows in there though but that's okay, it's still a solid B+. If we could have some evidence that the show was responsible for some of the voice softening i would make it an A- but this is still very good. ABC deserves props for managing to steady the ship big time here, I didn't think it was possible at all.

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