Wednesday, August 4, 2010

The War of 18-49, CSI: NY



CSI: NY (CBS)

Scheduling history: CSI: NY aired all but one episode of its first six seasons on Wednesday night, then moved to Friday for the last three seasons.

See (who saw) how it all began: As is often the case with spinoffs, CSI: NY began really well, finding 19.26 million viewers and a 7.1/19 in the demo on 9/22/04. It actually outrated the Lost premiere's 6.8 demo, which was on the same night two hours earlier, though it was 17% down from the series premiere of the first CSI spinoff, Miami, about two years prior. NY impressively held the full 7.1 demo in week two, but then dropped to a 6.2 and then a 5.2 the next two weeks before bouncing back up. The show generally had a lot of ratings volatility in its first season.

The best of times: The first two seasons of the show were pretty consistently in the 5.0 vicinity, but the show never did a better A18-49 than the 7.1 it posted each of its first two weeks. The storyline for this show's ratings on Wednesday was a little drop every season, and the drop from season 1 to season 2 was the smallest of them all.

The worst of times: As I said in the last section, CSI: NY started with a big audience and has lost a bit of it each year since.  Most of these drops have been less-than-catastrophic, but the really bad one was at the halfway point in the show's run to date, between seasons 3 and 4, when the show dropped more than 20%.  This was really the year that took the show from a bonafide hit to something of a marginal player by CBS standards, and after two more years of small drops, the 3.0 average out of the always consistent Criminal Minds prompted a CBS move of the show to Friday. The Friday seasons were by far the weakest, with every single episode of those seasons rating below every single Wednesday episode ever. The worst stretch in series history came at the end of the last couple seasons, when the show totally fell apart in the last few weeks each time. The series low was a 1.2 demo set five different times, including the finales of both seasons eight and nine.

Then vs. now: CBS definitely got diminishing returns out of its extension of the CSI franchise, as CSI: NY was rarely anything more than a solid player in its nine-season run. But it was also rarely anything less than solid, even in the Friday seasons. It wasn't actually that much weaker at the end of its three-season Friday stint than at the beginning, but CBS' depth means they regularly have to put reasonable players out to pasture, and NY's time was clearly up.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas Year Timeslot Avg y2y Lo Hi Results Grade
12004-05Wednesday 10:005.303.87.1detail
22005-064.98-6%4.36.5detail
32006-074.57-8%3.36.0detail
42007-083.61-21%2.94.1detail
52008-093.36-7%2.94.3detail
62009-103.03-10%2.34.0detail
72010-11Friday 9:001.75-42%1.52.0detailD+
82011-121.62-7%1.21.8detailC+
92012-13Fri 8:00, Fri 9:001.41-13%1.21.6detailC

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas Year A18-49+ Label Now15 y2y Lo Hi Premiere Finale
12004-05 130 hit2.18 93 174 174 110
22005-06 123 solid2.06 -6% 106 160 111 111
32006-07 121 solid2.04 -1% 88 159 133 106
42007-08 109 solid1.84 -10% 88 124 112 97
52008-09 112 solid1.88 +2% 96 143 133 100
62009-10 108 solid1.81 -4% 82 142 142 96
72010-11 69 solid(Fri)1.16 -36% 59 79 79 63
82011-12 69 solid(Fri)1.15 -0% 51 76 76 51
92012-13 67 solid(Fri)1.13 -2% 57 76 62 57
AVERAGE:101solid
CAREER:907tentpole


For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

The War of 18-49, American Idol



AMERICAN IDOL (FOX)

Scheduling history: The first nine American Idol seasons aired on Tuesday and Wednesday. For the 2010-11 season, Fox moved the show to Wednesday/Thursday, forming a reality competition 'wheel' that would run year-round with Idol and (at least for a couple years) The X Factor and So You Think You Can Dance. Revived on ABC in 2018, the show aired on Sunday and Monday.

See (who saw) how it all began: Would you believe me if I told you the show that has been the single most dominant force in primetime TV for the second half of the aughts premiered with less than 10 million viewers watching?  It's the truth; Idol snagged 9.85 million viewers and a 4.8/14 demo on June 11, 2002. Yes, June. This show didn't start off as a regular season megahit. It rose to a 5.2 demo for its second airing the next day, then hovered around the 5.0 mark for most of the first half of the debut season.  Pretty darn good for a summer show, but it was hard to tell just how big a revolution this show would be until the second half of the season.

The best of times: Seasons 4-6 are the clear best raw numbers run for the show, with nearly every airing from those seasons breaking double digit demos. Season 5 was the consistently strongest, with all but two airings finishing above a 10.0 and posting the second-strongest premiere (15.3, behind only season 6's 15.8) and second-strongest finale (14.2, behind only season 2's 14.9) in the history of the show. It was that whooping 15.8/36 demo to kick off season 6 on 1/16/07 that still stands as the series high. But the show maintained about the same lead over the rest of the entertainment field for several seasons after that raw numbers peak. 2011 was the show's last really impressive season, as it dropped only around 5%.

The worst of times: For the first decade of the show's existence, season 1 remained easily the weakest, particularly the ~5.0 demo from the first half of the season. It's amazing in this day and age that it took till season 11 for the show to return to and finally plunge beneath those early season one numbers. The last four seasons have seen declines much faster than league average, taking the show from the anomaly of a decade to very much a mere mortal. Season 14 brought another slew of new lows, including a mere 1.3 demo for a special Tuesday show on 5/12/15. But the final season on Fox brought some real redemption, never going below a 1.7. For at least one ABC season, it did not get any lower than the 1.3 nadir on Fox, and it held off going fractional in the second ABC season.

Then vs. now: For five straight years after Idol's peak raw numbers season in 2006, the show saw ratings declines. And yet none of those declines were alarming in the least, because none of them were significantly speedier than the declines of primetime series ratings in general. The show in 2011 was not in a very different place from the show in 2006; it pulled about three times the rating of the average big four series original. That all changed in 2012, as a show that had never dropped 20% on any night suddenly dropped by more than 30% on both nights. But even with that, and even with several returning comedy hits having extreme breakout seasons, Idol was still the top entertainment program on TV. That really says all you need to know about how far ahead of the pack Idol sat for so long. The 2013 season finally saw Idol become just another part of the pack of elite shows, as both nights were handily outrated by several scripted shows. And it fell out of even the elite group in 2014. It may have been a brutal four years for Idol, but it took only one season after its end on Fox to get revived at ABC. And while it didn't get anywhere close to peak Idol, it was still a stronger show than in the worst years of the Fox collapse.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

SeasYearSlotAvgy2yLoHiResultsGrade
1Summer 2002Tuesday 9:006.084.59.3detail
Wednesday 9:306.453.410.7
22003Tuesday 8:009.78+61%6.212.4detail
Wednesday 8:3010.33+60%7.316.8
32004Tuesday 8:0010.86+11%8.513.1detail
Wednesday 8:0010.35+0%6.213.2
42005Tuesday 8:0011.10+2%9.014.0detail
Wednesday 9:0011.14+8%8.612.5
52006Tuesday 8:0012.83+16%11.015.3detail
Wed 8:00, Wed 9:0011.69+5%9.214.2
62007Tuesday 8:0011.74-8%9.315.8detail
Wed 8:00, Wed 9:0011.72+0%9.115.5
72008Tuesday 8:0010.43-11%6.813.8detail
Wed 8:00, Wed 9:009.80-16%7.012.6
82009Tuesday 8:009.11-13%7.811.7detail
Wed 8:00, Wed 9:009.02-8%7.111.8
92010Tuesday 8:008.35-8%6.211.8detail
Wed 8:00, Wed 9:007.40-18%5.910.1
102011Wednesday 8:007.82-6%6.49.7detailA-
Thursday 8:007.10-4%5.79.2
112012Wednesday 8:005.33-32%4.47.9detailD
Thursday 8:004.89-31%3.96.4
122013Wednesday 8:003.90-27%2.96.0detailD
Thursday 8:003.68-25%2.65.6
132014Wednesday 8:002.67-32%1.74.7detailD-
Thu 8:00, Thu 9:002.57-30%1.53.9
142015Wednesday 8:002.05-23%1.33.4detailD+
Thursday 8:002.25-13%1.73.1
15Winter 2016Wednesday 8:002.42+18%2.03.0detailA-
Thursday 8:002.16-4%1.73.0
16Spring 2018Sunday 8:001.671.32.3detailB+
Monday 8:001.561.41.9
17Spring 2019Sunday 8:001.32-21%1.01.7detailC+
Monday 8:001.14-27%1.11.2
18Spring 2020Sunday 8:001.22-8%0.91.5detailB+
2020Monday 8:001.28+13%1.21.4
19Spring 2021Sunday 8:000.87-28%0.81.2detailC
Monday 8:000.69-46%0.60.8
20Spring 2022Sunday 8:000.79-9%0.71.1detailA-
Monday 8:000.69-1%0.60.7
21Spring 2023Sunday 8:000.70-12%0.50.9detailB+
Monday 8:000.56-18%0.50.6
22Spring 2024Sunday 8:000.54-23%0.40.7detailC
Monday 8:000.41-26%0.40.5
23Spring 2025Sunday 8:000.54+0%0.40.8detailA
Monday 8:000.42+2%0.40.4
2420260.45-17%0.40.6detailC+

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

SeasYearA18-49+LabelNow26y2yLoHiPremiereFinale
1Summer 2002141mega(sum)0.42105216112216
150mega(sum)0.4579249121249
22003224megahit0.67+58%142284284256
236megahit0.71+58%167384270384
32004267megahit0.80+20%209323318261
255megahit0.76+8%153325313325
42005273megahit0.82+2%221344344285
274megahit0.82+7%211307275307
52006316megahit0.95+16%271377377303
288megahit0.86+5%227350320350
62007312megahit0.93-1%247419419258
311megahit0.93+8%242411411305
72008315megahit0.94+1%206417417305
296megahit0.89-5%212381381345
82009303megahit0.91-4%259389389286
300megahit0.90+1%236392392332
92010297megahit0.89-2%220419419238
263megahit0.79-12%210359359291
102011308megahit0.92+4%252382382252
279megahit0.84+6%224362307362
112012226megahit0.68-27%186334313186
207megahit0.62-26%165271241271
122013185big hit0.55-18%138285285142
175big hit0.52-15%123266266171
132014142hit0.42-23%9025025090
137hit0.41-22%80207207138
142015122solid0.37-14%7720219077
134hit0.40-2%101184184101
15Winter 2016166big hit0.50+36%137206206151
149hit0.45+11%117206185206
16Spring 2018153big hit0.46117210210117
143hit0.43124169169148
17Spring 2019139hit0.42-9%107176176153
120solid0.36-16%112125122122
18Spring 2020148hit0.44+7%109179179121
2020157big hit0.47+31%143171143171
19Spring 2021135hit0.40-9%118181181136
107solid0.32-32%9211911592
20Spring 2022155big hit0.46+15%127208182149
135hit0.40+26%122145143141
21Spring 2023164big hit0.49+6%120216143195
132hit0.39-2%124143124136
22Spring 2024142hit0.43-13%100171145171
109solid0.33-17%95124103119
23Spring 2025171big hit0.51+20%126265265227
133hit0.40+22%123142123135
242026150big hit0.45-12%120207207187

The War of 18-49 chronicles the ratings history of veteran primetime series. For more, see the Index.

Monday, August 2, 2010

The War of 18-49, One Tree Hill



ONE TREE HILL (The WB/CW)

Scheduling history: One Tree Hill aired in all six hours of Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday and visited some of those hours for multiple separate stints. Its first two seasons (on Tuesday after Gilmore Girls) were the only stretch in nine seasons that saw the show air in one timeslot for two full seasons.

See (who saw) how it all began: I'm not exactly sure why this happened, and if anyone knows, feel free to speak up, but One Tree Hill had a horrific premiere, getting just 2.48 million viewers and a 0.8/2 in adults 18-49 on 9/23/03. It's not like it had no lead-in and then got a huge one the next week; lead-in Gilmore Girls was there but way down as well. But from that premiere number, OTH spiked to a 1.1 the next week and then a 1.4 in week three. It would stay in the mid-1's for awhile after that.

The best of times: My info for the first three seasons of the show is quite spotty, but it seems clear the show was, much like previous entry Supernatural, at its best when airing after Gilmore Girls. In particular, the show was strong in early season 2, when it was constantly pulling a 2.0+ in the demo. The highest numbers I have for One Tree Hill are 5.43 million total viewers and a 2.4 demo on 10/5/04, but my info is pretty sparse for the first three seasons, so it may have gotten higher. Credit also has to be given for the show's performance in late 2008, when it moved back into the upper 1's in the demo after getting paired with Gossip Girl on Monday.

The worst of times: One Tree Hill was impressive enough in season 2 to prompt The WB to have it anchor a night, which it did for the 2005-06 season, and it took a large 25% dive. It was a perpetual bubble show from then until the aforementioned move to Monday. But even that resurgence eventually fell apart. Season 7 became easily the show's weakest, and it went back on the bubble for the next two seasons. For a long time, the series low out of what I have remained the oddly low 0.8 for the series premiere back in 2003. Starting in February 2011, the show finally dropped below that plateau, bottoming out with a 0.6 on 5/3/11 and 5/10/11. It never got that low in the final season, but it was still the series' weakest season by average.

Then vs. now: One Tree Hill has never been an all-star for its network, but it's a serialized drama that somehow made it nine seasons. That's quite an accomplishment, even if at times it's only survived because of the poor performance by the network. Across those nine years, it's been an anchor, it's been a sufficient lead-out, it's been a midseason replacement, and it's changed timeslots seven times. It's been one of primetime TV's unsung utility players. But the end is finally here, as the CW announced a final season after the show dropped 20%+ in seasons seven and eight. The bleeding slowed in the final season, but not nearly enough to count on a 7th Heaven-style resurrection.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

Seas Year Timeslot Avg y2y Lo Hi Results Grade
12003-04Tuesday 9:001.550.82.0detail
22004-051.94+25%1.62.4detail
32005-06Wednesday 8:001.35-30%1.11.7detail
42006-07Wednesday 9:001.32-2%0.91.9detail
52007-08Tue 9:00, Mon 9:001.34+2%1.11.6detail
62008-09Monday 9:001.43+6%1.11.9detail
72009-10Monday 8:001.10-22%0.91.3detail
82010-11Tuesday 8:000.86-22%0.61.2detailD+
92011-12Wednesday 8:000.76-12%0.70.9detailC+

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

Seas Year A18-49+ Label Now15 y2y Lo Hi Premiere Finale
12003-04 38 solid(CW)0.65 20 49 20 44
22004-05 48 hit(CW)0.80 +24% 39 59 51 39
32005-06 33 marginal(CW)0.56 -30% 27 42 42 32
42006-07 35 solid(CW)0.59 +6% 24 50 45 27
52007-08 41 solid(CW)0.68 +16% 33 48 45 48
62008-09 47 hit(CW)0.80 +17% 37 63 57 43
72009-10 39 solid(CW)0.66 -17% 32 46 43 36
82010-11 34 marginal(CW)0.57 -13% 24 47 43 28
92011-12 32 marginal(CW)0.54 -6% 30 38 38 34
AVERAGE:39solid(CW)
CAREER:348



For more on The War of 18-49, my look at the history of primetime TV's veteran shows, see the Index.

Sunday, August 1, 2010

The War of 18-49, Extreme Makeover: Home Edition



EXTREME MAKEOVER: HOME EDITION (ABC)

Scheduling history: With very few exceptions (the series premiere/preview on Wednesday in 2003, a special episode on Thursday in May 2004) Extreme Makeover: Home Edition aired its entire run until October 2011 on Sunday. In fall 2011, ABC moved the show to Friday and started double-pumping originals. Cancellation was announced fairly soon after, so the show left the schedule for good in January 2012.

See (who saw) how it all began: Extreme Makeover: Home Edition kicked off with a preview on 12/3/03 after a fairly high-rated special about the Bachelorette wedding. It held almost all of that special's demo, scoring 12.10 million total viewers and a 5.8/16 in the demo. It didn't make its Sunday premiere until over two months later, though, pulling a more modest 10.95 million viewers and a 4.0 demo on 2/15/04. It held almost all that demo with a 3.9 the next week, though, and it continued to build throughout that short first season, peaking at a 5.4 on 5/2/04.

The best of times: The best of times for EM: HE was season 2. The show had some nice momentum on Sundays in its own right during early 2004, and the behemoth Sunday night performance from Desperate Housewives the next season only helped matters. The show peaked in early 2005, including a whooping 9.0 demo on 1/16/05, and 10 of the show's 11 airings above a 7.0 demo occurred during the 2004-05 season. The 2005-06 season was actually not much worse, but its average was brought down by a ton of airings in the lower-HUT 7pm hour.

The worst of times: Since 2004-05, it's pretty much been downhill for Home Edition. ABC kept Sunday night completely intact since from fall 2006 through spring 2011, and they all dropped together. Though EM: HE had a bit of renaissance in the middle of the 2007-08 season when most scripted TV was gone due to the writer's strike, usually it's just dropped. Most of the season lows below are a bit misleading since they usually take place in the 7pm hour, but the ultimate low point for the show was what it did after its move to Friday in the final season. It got as low as a 0.7 demo on November 11.

Then vs. now: A Friday move for Home Edition seemed imminent for years, and it finally came to pass in the 2011-12 season. Unfortunately, by the time it actually did get moved, there was very little ratings juice left in the program, and it wasn't able to withstand that move in an acceptable way. I have to wonder if the move came a season too late. Perhaps if they'd made the move the previous fall and given No Ordinary Family the Sunday slot (where another fantasy show in Once Upon a Time went on to succeed in a big way the next season), the fates of those shows could've gone down differently. But ABC decided to squeeze all they could out of Home Edition on Sunday. By 2011-12, the show was weak enough that even its Friday numbers were easily replaceable, as the Shark Tank/Primetime: What Would You Do? duo instantly posted better numbers after Home Edition departed on Friday.

Adults 18-49 info by season:

SeasYearSlotAvgy2yLoHiResultsGrade
12003-04Sunday 8:004.09
1.65.8detail
2004-056.35+55%3.49.0
2Summer 2005-065.23-18%2.87.1detail
32006-074.77-9%2.56.4detail
42007-084.38-8%2.35.6detail
52008-093.29-25%1.94.1detail
62009-102.71-18%1.93.7detail
72010-112.26-17%1.52.7detailC-
82011-12Sun 8:00, Fri 8:001.41-37%0.72.3detailD+
9Fall 2012Monday 9:001.11-21%0.91.3detail
10Winter 2025Thursday 8:000.26
0.20.3detailC

Historical-adjusted ratings by season:

SeasYearA18-49+LabelNow25y2yLoHiPremiereFinale
12003-04101solid0.32
39143143131
2004-05156big hit0.49+55%84221169174
2Summer 2005-06129big hit(sum)0.41-17%6917574131
32006-07127hit0.40-2%6617093119
42007-08133hit0.42+5%7016988118
52008-09109solid0.35-17%6313673103
62009-1096marginal0.31-12%6813175103
72010-1189marginal0.28-8%591065987
82011-1260solid(Fri)0.19-33%30975572
9Fall 201253flop0.17-12%43626257
10Winter 202580marginal0.25
6611011069

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