Tuesday, March 6, 2012

SpecTrulation, Raising Hope/I Hate My Teenage Daughter/New Girl/Breaking In




Today's edition of SpecTrulation examines Fox's two-hour sitcom block, debuting tonight and running on Tuesdays till the April 10 return of Glee.

Raising Hope

TRUE says: Raising Hope has averaged about a 2.1 demo and a 1.50 TRUE in its 2012 episodes, and Last Man Standing can testify that the Tuesday 8/7c timeslot has had about an even Sitch. That would add up to a 1.5 demo, but with NCIS and Last Man both in repeats, the timeslot should be easier than usual. So TRUE will officially forecast a 1.6 demo.

Spot says: The interesting thing about making the Raising Hope forecast is that this show has never had an airing that could remotely be considered "on its own." The show's weakest lead-in in its 37-episode history was the 3.0 from New Girl a couple weeks ago. That said, the show has held up fairly well as New Girl has struggled in its last couple weeks. Ever the optimist, I feel this show just has its own audience more than most shows with big lead-ins. I'm gonna say a 1.8 demo, and I think that'd make it the best (relative to past results) performance of the block.

I Hate My Teenage Daughter

TRUE says: In its last three episodes post-The X Factor, I Hate My Teenage Daughter averaged right around a 2.0 demo and about a 1.50 TRUE. Assigning that to the 8:30 timeslot, where we'd assume a slightly positive Sitch (see the Cougar Town Sitches to date this season) and give it a Raising Hope-esque 1.6 demo.

Spot says: I don't think this show will be as resilient as Raising Hope. It's been around for a lot less time and is utterly buzz-free. I think it'll Truly drop a bit across the hiatus, too. I'm wavering between 1.4 and 1.5, but I'll go with a 1.4 demo.

New Girl

TRUE says: It's a bit tough to estimate this since New Girl has never been without a Glee lead-in, but I'm basically operating on the assumption that the lead-in will be approximately 1.5 points weaker than the usual Glee and that a half-hour show loses about 0.1 for every 0.5 of lead-in drop. (I came up with that number during the True Strength formation last summer.) So for the TRUE calculation, I'll just assume the same viewing/competition and drop 0.3 due to the lead-in change. I'll say a 2.7 demo for New Girl.

Spot says: To come up with my own prediction, I pretty much just did the same thing I said above. I could see it holding a bit better since NCIS: LA is going into repeats, but overall TRUE seems to feel this is one of the most over-valued "hits" on TV. It's been airing in one of the least competitive weeknight timeslots on TV, and it's had a solid lead-in. Surround it with what I think will be a bunch of duds and I see the show disappointing a bit. 2.7 demo.

Breaking In  

TRUE says: I'm not really big on using this metric on a year-to-year basis, because the idea was to create a number that was relatively consistent within season, not across seasons (because practically everything declines across seasons). It's very possible Breaking In could come back from its 10 months off the air an entirely Truly different show. That said, last season the TRUE metrics didn't just consider this show a huge reach for renewal; it actually considered it one of the biggest flops on TV (it hovered around a 1.00 for most of its run). Those who love picking on "retentionistas" were ultimately right about the renewal prognosis (thanks Nellie Andreeva!), but I'd say I was still right about it being a ratings dud, case in point its 1.3 demo when it got moved to Tuesday for its finale (with a 2.2 lead-in). We can give the show another 1.00 TRUE, and there's a good chance the timeslot will have a highly positive Sitch. Raising Hope had about a +40% in its last two episodes and has been even higher than that in the past. We'll just go +40% and say a 1.4 demo for Breaking In.

Spot says: I like Bret Harrison in general, and I actually rather liked Christian Slater on this show, but I wasn't big on the show as a whole. I'm not sure whether I should root for the show to be good in season two and ultimately succeed or root for it to fail just to prove me right about its ratings. Ultimately, I think the +40% Sitch might be a bit conservative with NCIS: LA in repeats, and it might get a bit of a promotional bump, so I'll give the show a 1.5 demo. It seems most people are picking higher, but I'm sticking to my stupid guns on this show and hoping to be wrong tomorrow morning.

So, for the whole lineup, TRUE says: 1.6 -> 1.6 -> 2.7 -> 1.4
I say: 1.8 -> 1.4 -> 2.7 -> 1.5

Anybody think I'm way off across the board? I welcome your thoughts!!!

2 comments:

Spot said...

I think the compatible lead-in should help "Breaking In" float above 2.0 tonight.

Spot said...

Oh well. It's getting axed for a third and final time.

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