Thursday, December 5, 2013

The True Top 25, Week Ending 12/1/13 (2013-14 Week Ten)

Sunday Night Football dominated a holiday week; as last year, the Thanksgiving Thursday game had a huge True advantage over a lower-end Sunday game mostly because of the huge overall viewing difference; more than 30% more A18-49ers were watching TV on Sunday than on Thursday.

With most Wednesday/Thursday/Friday shows sitting out, Monday's The Voice was the top entertainment program, with increasingly legit-looking The Blacklist #2. How I Met Your Mother was the top sitcom. Four new shows made the cut as Mom had an eyebrow-raising surge to get on the list for the first time all season; Almost Human was just a hundredth of a point away from making it five newbies. The sole Friday/Saturday representative was CBS' very strong Garth Brooks special on Friday.

Rank Name True A18-49 ARank
1Sunday Night Football (Thu)8.856.91
2Sunday Night Football (Sun)5.786.22
3The Voice Mon3.463.44
4The Blacklist2.963.06
5How I Met Your Mother2.842.99
6The Big Bang Theory (R)2.843.35
7The Voice Tue2.833.06
8Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer2.803.06
92 Broke Girls2.502.710
10Mike and Molly2.502.512
11Agents of SHIELD2.452.611
12Dancing with the Stars Tue2.432.413
13Criminal Minds2.412.413
15Sleepy Hollow2.362.217
1760 Minutes2.313.93
18Dancing with the Stars Mon2.302.217
20Garth Brooks: Live From Las Vegas2.211.829
21NCIS: Los Angeles2.212.413
23Person of Interest2.122.217
24SNL Thanksgiving1.961.634
25New Girl1.941.926

Missing the True Top 25 but in the A18-49 list: The Biggest Loser (t-#24 in A18-49, #28 in True), Chicago Fire (t-#21 in A18-49, #30 in True) and The Amazing Race (t-#21 in A18-49, #33 in True).

For more on the True Top 25, click to expand.
I created the True number so I could have an objective way of comparing shows across vastly different situations. One of the most fun comparisons to be made is among the biggest shows on TV. What's really the strongest show in a vacuum? Hence the weekly feature the True Top 25. This will compare shows while accounting for everything so we can see who Truly comes out on top. I include both the A18-49 and the weekly ranking in A18-49 so you can see the changes within the rankings that True Strength makes.

The A18-49 rankings aren't based on Nielsen's "official" broadcast top 25. They're derived from my own spreadsheet just using the big-five networks, so none of the big players on Univision are included. I've also weeded out some weird programming like NFL overruns and sports pre-game shows. Most of that stuff airs largely out of primetime or is strangely split apart, so I don't want to muddle the list with that.

As mentioned on the sports SpotVault pages, True Strengths for sporting events are based on the primetime portion only. Perhaps in future editions I'll try to get the primetime portion only A18-49 into the A18-49 rankings so it'll be a totally fair comparison.


Spot said...

Today's ABC press release says - C3 ratings (09/23/13-11/17/13): Scandal 3.58 / The Blacklist 3.55.

Impressive gain for both shows, 17% / 13% more than Live+SD ratings, if I'm not wrong. And it makes Blacklist looking even more legit.

Spot said...

I know it's been kinda slow recently because of the holidays, but I can't help but comment on Tomorrow People dropping half of Arrow's numbers again. Arrow has done a nice job of rallying after a slow start, and I would have thought that TTP, seeing as how everyone thinks it's compatible with it, would start to pick up as well. No dice. That bums me out, because all three of the hour-long dramas I was looking forward to (Almost Human, SHIELD and TTP) are under-performing. I've stopped watching AH and TTP, but SHIELD isn't a lost cause yet. What they need to do is introduce a superhero into the team, which is what people were expecting given the Marvel license and the promos.

Spot said...

Let me say two things:

1. Thank God I've found this site. Now that TV by the Numbers has pretty much been filled with trolls and crazies, it's nice to see people actually discuss ratings.

2. Something I don't understand is how do you figure out the true numbers. Do you look at the average, or the competition, or...?

Spot said...

The True numbers are a combination of overall viewing levels, lead-in and competition. There are some other adjustments, too. I don't understand all of it, but you can find more here:

Spot said...

I believe this is only the second time so far this season where a non-ABC drama has been the top True broadcast drama. That's pretty impressive since this is the time of year when all of the networks are at full-strength outside of sweeps periods.

Spot said...

Impressive that those gain in C+3, not just L+3, according to that release. Revolution also had big DVR interest at this point, but it was also still speeding downward. Blacklist isn't, and NBC now know they have a hit on their hands and one hole off the spring schedule if it holds off in January. It's not like they can't promote the move in February if they're making one.

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